436 replies to this topic

[You Play to Win the Game]

You and Rob make up yet? I haven't checked the politics thread in awhile

Neither have I, which naturally makes us (Rob and I) better off. It's really only when I read his views there, that I don't like the guy.

[Slidemaster]

How much football is played between Late december/early Jan and Late April, yet the NFL boards change like crazy.

There is no baseball combine. There is no more data to analyze aside from interviews.

[SportsGuy]

There is no more data to analyze aside from interviews.

The combine is in late Feb. The draft is in late April.

They also have pro days.

However, that isn’t actual football.

The boards change a lot the closer you get to the draft..that’s always the case.

[Slidemaster]

The combine is in late Feb. The draft is in late April.

They also have pro days.

However, that isn’t actual football.

The boards change a lot the closer you get to the draft..that’s always the case.

Oh totally. Two huge evaluations of every conceivable physical trait and football skill moves the needle just as much as 3 months of literally nothing.

Give me a break. 

[SportsGuy]

Oh totally. Two huge evaluations of every conceivable physical trait and football skill moves the needle just as much as 3 months of literally nothing.

Give me a break.

You just aren’t getting it.

All of these mocks change so much before you draft. Lots of info starts getting out..players start to rise, off the field concerns come out, hear more info from teams, etc...

Why do you think Mayo moves him up so much in that time frame even though no baseball was being played?

Either way, Kjerstad at 2 wasn’t much of, if any, reach. In a draft that seemed to lack elite talent at the top, he is right in line with everyone else, especially when you factor in cost.

[Mike B]

You just aren’t getting it.

All of these mocks change so much before you draft. Lots of info starts getting out..players start to rise, off the field concerns come out, hear more info from teams, etc...

Why do you think Mayo moves him up so much in that time frame even though no baseball was being played?

Either way, Kjerstad at 2 wasn’t much of, if any, reach. In a draft that seemed to lack elite talent at the top, he is right in line with everyone else, especially when you factor in cost.

The more I read the more I think the Orioles had Kjerstad high up on their board as opposed to they took him as an under slot player.

I would still have preferred Lacy or Martin, but what do I know.

The fact that the Orioles did not have a pre-draft deal with Kjerstad, tells me it was more evaluation based then slot based.

[Slidemaster]

You just aren’t getting it.

All of these mocks change so much before you draft. Lots of info starts getting out..players start to rise, off the field concerns come out, hear more info from teams, etc...

Why do you think Mayo moves him up so much in that time frame even though no baseball was being played?

Either way, Kjerstad at 2 wasn’t much of, if any, reach. In a draft that seemed to lack elite talent at the top, he is right in line with everyone else, especially when you factor in cost.

At 2 overall, taking a guy ranked 7th at the highest, and more often in the 10-15 range, is a reach. Period.

[Mackus]

If Kjerstad was in the top tier then it wouldn't be a reach.

I just don't think he's in that tier, but that's based only on reading publicly available scouts takes on him and the other guys.

[SportsGuy]

At 2 overall, taking a guy ranked 7th at the highest, and more often in the 10-15 range, is a reach. Period.

Not really. One of the things pointed about last night on our podcast is that Chaim Bloom was saying that teams’ boards are far different than what we see publicly.

You are going off of what a few public people say, most of which don’t have much first hand knowledge of anything.

And then, once you take pitchers out (because the Orioles weren’t considering pitching there) and take out Tork, you are talking about going through 3-6 players. Not much difference there.

As you point out, the ranges for Kjerstad are all over the place...there is no pure consensus although everyone viewed him as one of the better players in the draft and most seem to agree that his elite power upside.

So no, it’s not a reach, or at least much of one.

Do the Os likely wish they could have traded down and gotten him at 4 or 5? Probably but that’s not how this draft works unfortunately.

[Slidemaster]

Not really. One of the things pointed about last night on our podcast is that Chaim Bloom was saying that teams’ boards are far different than what we see publicly.

You are going off of what a few public people say, most of which don’t have much first hand knowledge of anything.

And then, once you take pitchers out (because the Orioles weren’t considering pitching there) and take out Tork, you are talking about going through 3-6 players. Not much difference there.

As you point out, the ranges for Kjerstad are all over the place...there is no pure consensus although everyone viewed him as one of the better players in the draft and most seem to agree that his elite power upside.

So no, it’s not a reach, or at least much of one.

Do the Os likely wish they could have traded down and gotten him at 4 or 5? Probably but that’s not how this draft works unfortunately.

It isn't a few people. It is literally every respected industry mind. Not one of them had him as an elite tier player that I'm aware of, and most had him in the lower part of the first half of the first round.

Further, you can't just take pitchers out of the equation. If that's what the O's are doing, they are even more idiotic than I thought.

[Mackus]

I think "reach" is an absolutely fair description of the selection.

[JeremyStrain]

It isn't a few people. It is literally every respected industry mind. Not one of them had him as an elite tier player that I'm aware of, and most had him in the lower part of the first half of the first round.

Further, you can't just take pitchers out of the equation. If that's what the O's are doing, they are even more idiotic than I thought.

McDaniel had him at 7, Law mentioned him possibly going to the Royals at 4 last week.

 

But both of these are mocks, not "rankings".

 

It was unquestionably done to save some money, but I think it's just as likely he would have gone 7-12 had things run BPA.

 

The semantics of if taking a guy projected to go 7-12 at 2 in a money saving deal a REACH is tough to say. If they were saying this is our guy, we view him as BPA at 2, then yeah, but knowing that they took him in a savings move is different.

 

If they get both HS kids signed from 4/5 to pair with him, it's a MUCH different move than taking say Martin at 2 and getting 2 normal slot kids at 4/5.

[dude]

If they get both HS kids signed from 4/5 to pair with him, it's a MUCH different move than taking say Martin at 2 and getting 2 normal slot kids at 4/5.

 

The only thing I'd comment is that there's always this assumption that THIS was the only way to get it done.

 

You can still take whoever at 1 and pop one of these kids at 30, knowing you're going to need your slot+ to keep them....what they did is fine, but if you know who you think the talent is down the board, there's lots of ways to get home.

[SportsGuy]

It isn't a few people. It is literally every respected industry mind. Not one of them had him as an elite tier player that I'm aware of, and most had him in the lower part of the first half of the first round.

Further, you can't just take pitchers out of the equation. If that's what the O's are doing, they are even more idiotic than I thought.

It seems like the Os had no intention of drafting a pitcher. They have been consistent about going college and/or position players early in the draft the last few years. There are pitchers there people liked in all the rounds and they didn’t take one until the 5th round.

Seems like a calculated strategy to me.

That’s why I remove the pitching because it doesn’t seem like the Os were really considering it.

[SportsGuy]

I think "reach" is an absolutely fair description of the selection.

Lol..your mantra has been this year is impossible, we don’t have complete info, etc...and yet you think he’s a reach?

That makes no sense. There is no consistency in those thoughts.

[Mackus]

Lol..your mantra has been this year is impossible, we don’t have complete info, etc...and yet you think he’s a reach?

That makes no sense. There is no consistency in those thoughts.

 

Yes, I think he's a reach (if taken on his own merits, I'm fine with underslot/overslot approach though I don't think they did that very well by only landing two guys with their 4th and 5th round picks). 

 

And it's absolutely consistent.  He's not in the mix of guys being considered for the top pick.  He just wasn't.  Nobody thought he'd go this high.  Law mentioned one time that he thought the O's might be interested.  But he's clearly not one of the guys that most teams at the top were considering.  He's not the top tier.  He's in the next tier.  

 

I'm fine with drafting him.  I'm fine with dropping down a tier and getting an underslot guy with the top pick.  But it is absolutely fair to call him a reach at #2.  If you drop down a tier, you're reaching for a guy you like better than most or all others teams do.

[Slidemaster]

It seems like the Os had no intention of drafting a pitcher. They have been consistent about going college and/or position players early in the draft the last few years. There are pitchers there people liked in all the rounds and they didn’t take one until the 5th round.

Seems like a calculated strategy to me.

That’s why I remove the pitching because it doesn’t seem like the Os were really considering it.

If they are taking every early round pitcher off their board, or dropping all of them substantially lower due only to the position they play, that seems like a genuinely terrible strategy.

[SportsGuy]

If they are taking every early round pitcher off their board, or dropping all of them substantially lower due only to the position they play, that seems like a genuinely terrible strategy.

I don’t have an issue with it when picking really high in R1 unless there is some Strasburg type guy there.

I don’t like it for the rest of the draft.

[SportsGuy]

Yes, I think he's a reach (if taken on his own merits, I'm fine with underslot/overslot approach though I don't think they did that very well by only landing two guys with their 4th and 5th round picks).

And it's absolutely consistent. He's not in the mix of guys being considered for the top pick. He just wasn't. Nobody thought he'd go this high. Law mentioned one time that he thought the O's might be interested. But he's clearly not one of the guys that most teams at the top were considering. He's not the top tier. He's in the next tier.

I'm fine with drafting him. I'm fine with dropping down a tier and getting an underslot guy with the top pick. But it is absolutely fair to call him a reach at #2. If you drop down a tier, you're reaching for a guy you like better than most or all others teams do.

But you don’t know that the other teams viewed him this way.

You are going by these guys who basically know nothing.

Callis is the only guy who ever seems to get close on these mocks.

On top of that, there is way more secrecy and strategy for the MLB draft vs other drafts. If you start getting it out there that he’s your guy, it could artificially raise his price.

[Mike B]

But you don’t know that the other teams viewed him this way.

You are going by these guys who basically know nothing.

Callis is the only guy who ever seems to get close on these mocks.

On top of that, there is way more secrecy and strategy for the MLB draft vs other drafts. If you start getting it out there that he’s your guy, it could artificially raise his price.

I agree with a lot of this.  I watched guys like Reynolds and even O'Dowd stumble over some of the names being called and I have to wonder how accurate the rankings are.  We had heard Kjerstad linked to the Orioles early on, so clearly they liked him.

My issue, is I think they could have done more with the early Day 2 picks, but I would probably do a better job flying a plane than knowing the later picks.