436 replies to this topic

[Slidemaster]

Not even close to 30-40 guys. Probably closer to 20.

There are TWO guys in baseball with an 80 grade. And one of them hit 30 because he only hit .210 last year. Harper is stuck in the 30 range cause he's hitting in the .230s. Get those guys up to .260-.270 and they are closing on 50.

But that's just where our opinions differ here, you think he's more likely to hit for Gallo-like .210-.220 which with his raw power will probably put him near 30. I think he's more likely to hit near .270 which I think gets him in 50 range.

Your point is valid about hitting 30 or 50, but the concern is on the hit tool side of it, not the raw power. It's just a matter of how much you believe in his hit tool. .345 career in SEC and over .500 in Cape Cod with wood bats give me a little more positivity than others.

But you also have to admit you've been biased from the jump on this guy that you thought it was a terrible pick and he was going to be trash, so you are going to look much more negatively at it.

A couple of things.

If last year was any indicator, the league is littered with guys who could hit 50 home runs if they made enough contact. Some may need to make more contact than others, but there are lots of guys in the majors you have that kind of power. I would bet there's at least one per club on average, and that right there gets you to 30 who could do it. Several clubs will have more than one, which is where the range comes from in my head. If you really want to go down that road, I'll take a look and see specifically who fits that bill, but we don't have to go there.

I've been down on him from the jump because of how many questions there are about him. You seem to be more positive than most, as I don't think anybody, even the most enthusiastic evaluator, thanks that he's JD Martinez.

Maybe he'll turn out to be great. I just hate using the second overall pick on a guy that has a boatload of questions to go along with one thing he does well.

[Slidemaster]

No, it will not be an utter failure, until Kjerstad and Westburg and the others fail. Just because you do not like the picks or they do not spend every nickel, makes the draft a failure.

Let's not write the players off before they take the first swing.

There are two kinds of success in the draft. Maximizing your pick value and chance for success is one, and the other is the final result. Those two are not always related.

The kid Boston took might wind up being a future MVP. It doesn't change the fact that it is currently a terrible pick, and was a terrible use of their first-round selection. Getting lucky that a terrible draft pick becomes good doesn't change the fact that it was a terrible pick with terrible logic behind it.

[Mackus]

Not even close to 30-40 guys. Probably closer to 20.

 

There are TWO guys in baseball with an 80 grade. And one of them hit 30 because he only hit .210 last year. Harper is stuck in the 30 range cause he's hitting in the .230s. Get those guys up to .260-.270 and they are closing on 50.

 

Harper has a 276 career BA.  He's had two years in the 240s, one at 260, four in the 270s, two at 320+.

 

And the math doesn't check out here either.  A guy who hits 230 with 30 HR....lets say they have 550 AB, they would need 19 more hits instead of outs to get the average up to 265.  So unless all 19 of those hits are homeruns, which is not a fair suggestion when only 1/4 or so f the hits that got them to 30 HR at 230, they aren't anywhere near 50 HRs.  35 or so.

[Mike B]

There are two kinds of success in the draft. Maximizing your pick value and chance for success is one, and the other is the final result. Those two are not always related.

The kid Boston took might wind up being a future MVP. It doesn't change the fact that it is currently a terrible pick, and was a terrible use of their first-round selection. Getting lucky that a terrible draft pick becomes good doesn't change the fact that it was a terrible pick with terrible logic behind it.

The only thing that matters is the success these two and the 4 today have on the field.  Boston, seems to be playing games.  They may not even try to sign the kid.

 

The Orioles may like Kjerstad.  Just because you and me are less than excited by him, does not mean they did the wrong thing.  

[Mackus]

Well, it depends on how guys turn out but as of right now, knowing that you tanked, had the most draft money, etc..I would agree it would be a failure in the moment.

 

Draft process would be a failure.  Unless they truly thought Kjerstad was the best guy on the baord which I'll never believe.  Results could still be great even if the process was a disaster.  

 

Reverse also could be true.  If we go overslot with each of the next 4 picks and end up with a mid-1st, late-1st, and two 2nd round talents today, then the process would be very good.  And then maybe none of them make it and the results are terrible.  

[Slidemaster]

The only thing that matters is the success these two and the 4 today have on the field. Boston, seems to be playing games. They may not even try to sign the kid.

The Orioles may like Kjerstad. Just because you and me are less than excited by him, does not mean they did the wrong thing.

They better like him. If they don't, I have no idea what they're doing.

Again, I hope he works out. I hope he becomes an All-Star. I just hate that a team as bad as the Orioles are, with the second overall pick, took a guy that has so many question marks and only does one thing well.

[JeremyStrain]

A couple of things.

If last year was any indicator, the league is littered with guys who could hit 50 home runs if they made enough contact. Some may need to make more contact than others, but there are lots of guys in the majors you have that kind of power. I would bet there's at least one per club on average, and that right there gets you to 30 who could do it. Several clubs will have more than one, which is where the range comes from in my head. If you really want to go down that road, I'll take a look and see specifically who fits that bill, but we don't have to go there.

I've been down on him from the jump because of how many questions there are about him. You seem to be more positive than most, as I don't think anybody, even the most enthusiastic evaluator, thanks that he's JD Martinez.

Maybe he'll turn out to be great. I just hate using the second overall pick on a guy that has a boatload of questions to go along with one thing he does well.

I don't think there's really one per team, and you have to remember how juiced the ball was last year. They are trying to drum up the excitement level like they did back in the mid 90s and HR brings all the boys to the yard.

 

I don't blame you for your take, at all. And it's not like I think he's JD Martinez, I was just looking for rough stat lines that I think he could get to. I really hadn't even looked at this guy before last week when I was looking for an under slot candidate. Mostly I'm playing devils advocate because you were really worried about it, and I'm pointing out he's got the potential to be much better than you think. Yeah I get the worry taking him at 2 when other guys seemed more polished, but lets face it, pitchers are a disaster here, so that's dicey, Martin had questions about where he was going to play, Gonzales played in a weak conference. Veen is a HS kid, and while the potential is awesome, Bubba Starling was rated higher than he was...and we see how that turned out. HS kids carry even more risk, ESPECIALLY this year losing an entire year of their development.

 

If they pair this pick with an overslot sign I think it's a good strategy.

 

Remember somewhere down south people lost their minds when they took Correa...and that one worked out ok. Lets give it some time first. You VERY EASILY could be right here, but we gotta wait and see.

[Slidemaster]

I don't think there's really one per team, and you have to remember how juiced the ball was last year. They are trying to drum up the excitement level like they did back in the mid 90s and HR brings all the boys to the yard.

I don't blame you for your take, at all. And it's not like I think he's JD Martinez, I was just looking for rough stat lines that I think he could get to. I really hadn't even looked at this guy before last week when I was looking for an under slot candidate. Mostly I'm playing devils advocate because you were really worried about it, and I'm pointing out he's got the potential to be much better than you think. Yeah I get the worry taking him at 2 when other guys seemed more polished, but lets face it, pitchers are a disaster here, so that's dicey, Martin had questions about where he was going to play, Gonzales played in a weak conference. Veen is a HS kid, and while the potential is awesome, Bubba Starling was rated higher than he was...and we see how that turned out. HS kids carry even more risk, ESPECIALLY this year losing an entire year of their development.

If they pair this pick with an overslot sign I think it's a good strategy.

Remember somewhere down south people lost their minds when they took Correa...and that one worked out ok. Lets give it some time first. You VERY EASILY could be right here, but we gotta wait and see.

That's fair. We'll just have to wait and see. I remember Correa being looked at as a top 3 pick at the time - it just bothers me that Kjerstad was looked at by many as being a top 15 pick, not a top 5, and then they took another guy at or even slightly below slot at 30. They have serious work to do.

[JeremyStrain]

Harper has a 276 career BA.  He's had two years in the 240s, one at 260, four in the 270s, two at 320+.

 

And the math doesn't check out here either.  A guy who hits 230 with 30 HR....lets say they have 550 AB, they would need 19 more hits instead of outs to get the average up to 265.  So unless all 19 of those hits are homeruns, which is not a fair suggestion when only 1/4 or so f the hits that got them to 30 HR at 230, they aren't anywhere near 50 HRs.  35 or so.

That's because the math isn't linear. If he's hitting better, some of those singles or doubles he missed on to get however many hits he had would have been HR. Like 2017 to 2018 when he only had 3 more hits, but had 5 more HR.

 

There are other things that can add to that. Protection in the order (like when he's got 130 walks compared to 60 other years) Injuries, like he only played 111 games and had 29 HR, but only had 5 more in 159 games.

 

He's more of a 40 HR guy, and his stats look mostly to that, BUT he's also been wildly inconsistent in his career to your point. A couple seasons well into the .300s. A couple Seasons down around .240. 130 walk year. 38 walk year. But would you be surprised at all if he hit 50? It's the same hit tool/power talk Slide and I were just having, they both have to click to get to that kind of level. He's shown potential for it, but his AB/HR ratio is all over the place. He averages a 17.7 but has been as low as 12.4 and as high as 27.1. Whereas Pete Alonso was at 11.3 last year when he cleared 50, so that 12.4 isn't far off, 620 AB would have gotten him there.

[Mackus]

 I just hate that a team as bad as the Orioles are, with the second overall pick, took a guy that has so many question marks and only does one thing well.

 

You basically just described Austin Martin.  Lots of question marks (power, glove).  Only does one thing well (hit tool).  

 

That's an oversimplification to make a point.  I'm not saying Kjerstad is an equal prospect to Martin, but the difference between being in the mix for top-3 versus being in the mix for top-10 really isn't all that great.  Especially this year where we don't have a full picture of anybody.

[Mackus]

That's because the math isn't linear. If he's hitting better, some of those singles or doubles he missed on to get however many hits he had would have been HR. Like 2017 to 2018 when he only had 3 more hits, but had 5 more HR.

 

There are other things that can add to that. Protection in the order (like when he's got 130 walks compared to 60 other years) Injuries, like he only played 111 games and had 29 HR, but only had 5 more in 159 games.

 

He's more of a 40 HR guy, and his stats look mostly to that, BUT he's also been wildly inconsistent in his career to your point. A couple seasons well into the .300s. A couple Seasons down around .240. 130 walk year. 38 walk year. But would you be surprised at all if he hit 50? It's the same hit tool/power talk Slide and I were just having, they both have to click to get to that kind of level. He's shown potential for it, but his AB/HR ratio is all over the place. He averages a 17.7 but has been as low as 12.4 and as high as 27.1. Whereas Pete Alonso was at 11.3 last year when he cleared 50, so that 12.4 isn't far off, 620 AB would have gotten him there.

 

An increase in power (slugging/ISO) is what drives the increase in homers, not just an increase in contact (H).  They are related, and both help drive the number up, but it's the power that is the driving force.  I think your original comment about it being largely a question of hit tool (going from 230 to 260-270) being what it took to go from 30 HR to near 50 was overly simplified to the point of not being particularly realistic.

[JeremyStrain]

That's fair. We'll just have to wait and see. I remember Correa being looked at as a top 3 pick at the time - it just bothers me that Kjerstad was looked at by many as being a top 15 pick, not a top 5, and then they took another guy at or even slightly below slot at 30. They have serious work to do.

Yeah I get you, but in Kiley McDaniel's mocks (ESPN +) he had Kjerstad going 7 to the Pirates.

 

He DID say today he gets what the O's were doing, but would have preferred another guy even if they cost more, but that's assuming some of those guys he wanted (Martin, Veen, Gonzales) would have signed under slot, and I don't personally think any of them would. It HAD to be a guy in the tier that was like, I'm not the top of the draft, that's ok, I'll be happy in my 7-12 range.

 

But yeah you are absolutely right, they gotta make those savings count for it to balance, and they didn't do that at 30, if anything he may be a bit underslot too, so they gotta bang it out at 39. The only one that really moves the needle for me that much is Kelley, cause the other kid being talked about is coming off TJS and NO CHANCE the O's take a guy like that. They already said that physicals play a HUGE part in their draft.

[JeremyStrain]

An increase in power (slugging/ISO) is what drives the increase in homers, not just an increase in contact (H).  They are related, and both help drive the number up, but it's the power that is the driving force.  I think your original comment about it being largely a question of hit tool (going from 230 to 260-270) being what it took to go from 30 HR to near 50 was overly simplified to the point of not being particularly realistic.

You're right, it was overly simplified. Maybe too much. I'm assuming in there that not only do they keep that power number static, but that it may improve a little bit as they are pitched differently when they are making more contact, in ADDITION to them needing to get that contact rate up without sacrificing power. So yeah. Point taken.

[SportsGuy]

That's fair. We'll just have to wait and see. I remember Correa being looked at as a top 3 pick at the time - it just bothers me that Kjerstad was looked at by many as being a top 15 pick, not a top 5, and then they took another guy at or even slightly below slot at 30. They have serious work to do.

You are exaggerating. FG had him 7th overall. Most had him right around 10.

[SportsGuy]

Yeah I get you, but in Kiley McDaniel's mocks (ESPN +) he had Kjerstad going 7 to the Pirates.

He DID say today he gets what the O's were doing, but would have preferred another guy even if they cost more, but that's assuming some of those guys he wanted (Martin, Veen, Gonzales) would have signed under slot, and I don't personally think any of them would. It HAD to be a guy in the tier that was like, I'm not the top of the draft, that's ok, I'll be happy in my 7-12 range.

But yeah you are absolutely right, they gotta make those savings count for it to balance, and they didn't do that at 30, if anything he may be a bit underslot too, so they gotta bang it out at 39. The only one that really moves the needle for me that much is Kelley, cause the other kid being talked about is coming off TJS and NO CHANCE the O's take a guy like that. They already said that physicals play a HUGE part in their draft.

The mlb.com mock draft had Callis saying 8 and Mayo 7.

[Slidemaster]

You are exaggerating. FG had him 7th overall. Most had him right around 10.

There were many mocks and articles projecting him to go between 10 and 20.

[SportsGuy]

There were many mocks and articles projecting him to go between 10 and 20.

Really? Show them.

2080 baseball had him ranked 15th (rankings and where you expect to get drafted are 2 different things).

That’s the lowest I saw.

[Slidemaster]

Really? Show them.

2080 baseball had him ranked 15th (rankings and where you expect to get drafted are 2 different things).

That’s the lowest I saw.

https://www.mlb.com/...-mlb-mock-draft

https://www.cbssport...-into-top-five/

https://www.cbssport...cher-off-board/

https://prospects365...mock-draft-8-0/

Just a few that were easily available.

[BSLChrisStoner]

https://www.mlb.com/...-mlb-mock-draft

https://www.cbssport...-into-top-five/

https://www.cbssport...cher-off-board/

https://prospects365...mock-draft-8-0/

Just a few that were easily available.

 

That MLB article you linked above... ultimately they are Pipeline. Day of the draft, they had him 10th.
You are showing a link from a April 27th Mock. Dated. 

The first CBS link you show is from June 2nd.  RJ Anderson had him 17th.  Link fine. 

The second CBS link you showed is from April 15th. Axisa's mock there had him 15th.  Okay, but again, dated. 

I'm not familiar with Mason McRae / Prospects 365... but the May 8th mock has him 15th. 

 

I think the pre-draft rankings below (day of) give a better glimpse into how he was regarded at the time of the draft.
 

 

 

 

Heston Kjerstad pre-draft rankings:
No. 7 - FanGraphs
No. 9 - ESPN
No. 10 - MLBPipeline
No. 11 - The Athletic
No. 13 - Baseball America

[SportsGuy]

Are you really quoting mocks from 1-2 months ago? Seriously?

And btw, Mayo had him 7th in the last mock before last night.