Soccer Analyst
Posted 26 June 2020 - 10:32 AM
Maybe..these are also rankings based on hype.
Ok so baseball hypers (is that a word....lol) almost all see many players better than the O's #2 pick. Did they really need to drop that far down in the list so they could play the underslot game to sign two HS kids?
HOF
Posted 26 June 2020 - 10:41 AM
Ok so baseball hypers (is that a word....lol) almost all see many players better than the O's #2 pick. Did they really need to drop that far down in the list so they could play the underslot game to sign two HS kids?
Did anyone else rated above Kjerstad sign a well below slot deal? Kjerstad hasn't actually signed yet, which is kind of interesting. They already went way over on Baumler and Mayo though so that extra will have to come out someplace.
Moderator
Posted 26 June 2020 - 10:48 AM
Did anyone else rated above Kjerstad sign a well below slot deal? Kjerstad hasn't actually signed yet, which is kind of interesting. They already went way over on Baumler and Mayo though so that extra will have to come out someplace.
Nope, Veen signed for a little above slot. Hassel signed below slot at 8, but he was rated below Kjerstad. The rest that have signed so far have been right at slot.
Soccer Analyst
Posted 26 June 2020 - 10:56 AM
Did anyone else rated above Kjerstad sign a well below slot deal? Kjerstad hasn't actually signed yet, which is kind of interesting. They already went way over on Baumler and Mayo though so that extra will have to come out someplace.
This is a big part of my issue. I would have thought that if they were going to approach the draft in the underslot early game that they would only have done so if the had essentially reached a deal with Kjerstad? Now it may work out but they are going to look really stupid if they dont get their top pick signed.
Moderator
Posted 26 June 2020 - 11:05 AM
This is a big part of my issue. I would have thought that if they were going to approach the draft in the underslot early game that they would only have done so if the had essentially reached a deal with Kjerstad? Now it may work out but they are going to look really stupid if they dont get their top pick signed.
They will. And really if they didn't? Next year is going to be a stacked draft, and having 2 picks in the top 3 would be HUGE. We really aren't in a poor position here.
HOF
Posted 26 June 2020 - 11:08 AM
HOF
Posted 26 June 2020 - 11:10 AM
BA is only one ranking (so we can wait on the others too, there will be some variance) but wow, that's not a good look to have the kid you take at 1-2 start at #99.
I figured he get the draft location bump and slot somewhere between JJ Bleday and Nolan Jones....seems like a similar profile, but if they're putting him down there, that's not a good look. So for those that this is important to, I was wrong.
He'll get a chance to make them look like geniuses.....but if he's not significantly better than Hays, Mountcastle or Diaz, ugh.
Moderator
Posted 26 June 2020 - 11:34 AM
BA is only one ranking (so we can wait on the others too, there will be some variance) but wow, that's not a good look to have the kid you take at 1-2 start at #99.
I figured he get the draft location bump and slot somewhere between JJ Bleday and Nolan Jones....seems like a similar profile, but if they're putting him down there, that's not a good look. So for those that this is important to, I was wrong.
He'll get a chance to make them look like geniuses.....but if he's not significantly better than Hays, Mountcastle or Diaz, ugh.
Don't compare a fresh draft pick to people on the existing top 100 in any way. This is just a general way to say, as of right now, with zero development, this is the range of players we think he is in at the moment. You can't for a second compare him to guys with years of pro development, and the top 100 really means absolutely nothing. It's only meant for people who loosely follow prospects to have some sort of frame of reference. How many guys, even top 10 prospects end up being busts? A TON of them.
Ya'll need to ignore these "rankings" and let the kid play a while. I know it's hard for some of you, but you can NOT tell what you have with a guy right away, give him a few years and see how things turn out before you try to play MMQB.
HOF
Posted 26 June 2020 - 04:39 PM
Don't compare a fresh draft pick to people on the existing top 100 in any way. This is just a general way to say, as of right now, with zero development, this is the range of players we think he is in at the moment. You can't for a second compare him to guys with years of pro development, and the top 100 really means absolutely nothing. It's only meant for people who loosely follow prospects to have some sort of frame of reference. How many guys, even top 10 prospects end up being busts? A TON of them.
Ya'll need to ignore these "rankings" and let the kid play a while. I know it's hard for some of you, but you can NOT tell what you have with a guy right away, give him a few years and see how things turn out before you try to play MMQB.
I understand what you're saying, but 'these guys' usually get the benefit of the doubt in their ranking.
Initial perceptions matter. People see what they want to. There's a reason that Forrest Whitely still have a ranking despite being terrible...but Grayson Rodriguez has to pitch his ass off over and over to get consideration in the rankings. I mean seriously, if you were offered Whitely for GRod, would you do it? Mark Appel was terrible and held onto his top100 ranking until he forced his way off it.
Talent rankings are a measure of comparative talent it is 100% disappointing that he's not valued more to start because normally they dream on unproven guys.
He'll still get a chance to do whatever he can. He will 100% be given every opportunity to make them look good and that's fine. We'll see what he does.
HOF
Posted 27 June 2020 - 07:36 AM
I understand what you're saying, but 'these guys' usually get the benefit of the doubt in their ranking.
Initial perceptions matter. People see what they want to. There's a reason that Forrest Whitely still have a ranking despite being terrible...but Grayson Rodriguez has to pitch his ass off over and over to get consideration in the rankings. I mean seriously, if you were offered Whitely for GRod, would you do it? Mark Appel was terrible and held onto his top100 ranking until he forced his way off it.
Talent rankings are a measure of comparative talent it is 100% disappointing that he's not valued more to start because normally they dream on unproven guys.
He'll still get a chance to do whatever he can. He will 100% be given every opportunity to make them look good and that's fine. We'll see what he does.
I really don't care about Initial perceptions. IMO, they only matter to the people trying to justify their rankings. Performance is the only thing that should matter.
Whitely is still rated high because the talent is there but also because people who had him rated far above guys, who have performed like GR, do not want to admit they may have been wrong.
HOF
Posted 27 June 2020 - 03:05 PM
HOF
Posted 27 June 2020 - 04:26 PM
HOF
Posted 27 June 2020 - 05:40 PM
Maybe we let all these guys play a few professional innings before we make any judgements.
Whey do that when we can read a magazine and rush to judgement?
HOF
Posted 27 June 2020 - 06:28 PM
I am guessing Heston signs somewhere around 6 M.
Soccer Analyst
Posted 28 June 2020 - 09:48 AM
What happens to Heston if he chooses not to sign? Do the O's hold the leverage because he can't sign with anybody else? But from his standpoint I can hear him saying "why should I sign for 30% less than slot."
OTV
Posted 28 June 2020 - 10:26 AM
OTV
Posted 28 June 2020 - 10:27 AM
What happens to Heston if he chooses not to sign? Do the O's hold the leverage because he can't sign with anybody else? But from his standpoint I can hear him saying "why should I sign for 30% less than slot."
Soccer Analyst
Posted 28 June 2020 - 11:39 AM
He goes back to school for his senior year. Maybe increases his stock but how much? Pretty risky.
Thats what I thought and hence my thought that the O's hold the cards.
HOF
Posted 28 June 2020 - 12:00 PM
HOF
Posted 28 June 2020 - 02:27 PM
What happens to Heston if he chooses not to sign? Do the O's hold the leverage because he can't sign with anybody else? But from his standpoint I can hear him saying "why should I sign for 30% less than slot."
He can go back, and I believe the Orioles would get the #3 pick in next years draft to compensate.
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