436 replies to this topic

[Mike B]

How much can the stock improve from #2 overall? He'd have to really hate the O's to do something that asinine.

Agreed, he is going to sign.

[dude]

What happens to Heston if he chooses not to sign? Do the O's hold the leverage because he can't sign with anybody else? But from his standpoint I can hear him saying "why should I sign for 30% less than slot."

 

Let me be super clear on my next statement, I think the Orioles have a better chance of moving to Nashville for the 2021 season than Kjerstad has of not signing, so the number is 0%, but to answer your question....

 

...Kjerstad would go back to school and the Orioles would have to re-negotiate or not sign Baumler and Mayo.

 

It would be criminally (not actual crime) irresponsible for the Orioles not to have discussed a very specific framework for this deal.  They have to know what it looks like or they are more incompetent than anyone could imagine.

 

So there's some framework in place (we could discuss it) and Kjerstad and his agent could certainly go back on their word, which would be a horrible, just terrible look for him and his agent.

 

So there's something of a deal in place and I'd expect both sides to execute along those lines at the appropriate time.....

 

...but if something happened and he didn't sign (whatever) the Orioles don't have the space to sign Baumler and Mayo over-slot without hitting the max penalties for breaking your pool amount.  That causes the loss of the next 2 1st rounders or whatever the penalties are.  You lose the slot amount, so their overages aren't based on the 13+M total, your new pool total total is ~5.6 M.

 

Here's my guess on the timing.  Agents don't want Hjerstad signing under-slot before everyone around him.  They all need to be signed so that other teams don't use Hjerstad's bonus as leverage against their respective early picks.

 

The agreement could be a range based on the pool allotment after the Orioles sign their other 5 guys....so it's not so much a specific number, but a number that is [Total Pool] - [other 5 picks] = Hjerstad's bonus. So you have to get everyone else signed (4 of 5 as of today) and the players around you have to sign before you drop the paperwork (or maybe a NLT date).

 

I think the fact that he isn't signed today is utterly a non-issue and I fully expect whatever they've worked out to be executed along whatever timeline they've agreed to and that isn't getting shared publicly and it shouldn't be shared publicly.

[Mackus]

Agree with dude that the chance of Hjerstad not signing is extremely low.

[SportsGuy]

Agree with dude that the chance of Hjerstad not signing is extremely low.

Extremely low is too high of an estimate.

There is a zero percent chance.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

So I am slow on the uptake here but maybe I see how this works with Kjerstad.

 

So lets say that the highest projected draft position for him was 8th (totally made this up for sake of understanding). The slot money for 8th was $5.176M. So the O's approach to the discussions would have been that they could actually give him say $5.6M which was almost $0.5M over the best he could expect at his projected draft position. So the O's aren't really trying to convince him (before the draft) to take underslot money as much as getting more than he's likely to get.

 

Is that approach a team would take?

[Mackus]

Yes.

Almost always the framework is agreed upon with the player and team before the draft. Maybe not an exact dollar figure, but no team (including the Orioles) would draft a guy and hope to go well underslot on him without prior word from him that he's be amenable to such a deal.

[SportsGuy]

I also feel some believe the Orioles did this as a way to “cheap out”.

That’s not the case either.

[Mike B]

I also feel some believe the Orioles did this as a way to “cheap out”.

That’s not the case either.

It looks like they are going to spend all their slot money.

[JeremyStrain]

So I am slow on the uptake here but maybe I see how this works with Kjerstad.

 

So lets say that the highest projected draft position for him was 8th (totally made this up for sake of understanding). The slot money for 8th was $5.176M. So the O's approach to the discussions would have been that they could actually give him say $5.6M which was almost $0.5M over the best he could expect at his projected draft position. So the O's aren't really trying to convince him (before the draft) to take underslot money as much as getting more than he's likely to get.

 

Is that approach a team would take?

Yeah that's pretty much it. I laid it out back in one of these threads...the draft one I think. Cause people were saying they wanted guys like Veen or Gonzales on an underslot deal, but it doesn't work with the guys who view themselves as higher picks, and those guys and a few more had genuine arguments for going high. That's why I had said Kjerstad or I think the pitcher that went at #10 was the other one I used, because they were viewed as being lower, even if someone reached a little bit, they were going in the 8-12 range. So you look at the figures there, and say slot is $5.7m for #10, so how about we take you at #2, and give you $6.7m? Then they take that $1m in savings and use it for someone else.

 

That can vary up or down depending on the reach on the player (taking a 2nd round talent at pick #6 would net you more savings) and it sounds like they have something roughly in place for more savings, judging by what they spent on the HS kids.

[SportsGuy]

[Nigel Tufnel]

https://youtu.be/cBaKSz9bXgI

 

If you paste youtube links as plain text, the video will be embedded in your post.

[SportsGuy]

Kjerstad is getting 5.2M

[Mackus]

$5.2M is just north of slot for the #8 overall pick.

[Mike B]

Good for Kjerstad....now go out and make Elias look smart.

[SportsGuy]

https://www.masnspor...igning-him.html

[Mike B]

https://www.masnspor...igning-him.html

It seems to me that if we need the spots for the key minor league guys, there are some on the 44 man list that can be let go.

 

Step forward Ty Blach, Thomas Eshelman to name a few.

 

I would assume Kjerstad finds his way on that 60 man list.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Hopefully this turns out to be nothing...

 

Nathan Ruiz@NathanSRuiz·6m

 

2020 No. 2 overall pick Heston Kjerstad will not participate in the Orioles’ instructional league because of what Mike Elias described as a medical “non-sports” situation.

[Mike B]

A little more on HK.   Hopeully he will be okay.

https://www.masnspor...e-and-more.html

[Don Olsen]

FWIW: I believe Kjerstad was asthmatic, so you want to keep your distance away from people during these times.

[Mike B]

FWIW: I believe Kjerstad was asthmatic, so you want to keep your distance away from people during these times.

That makes sense.   While it amounts to a lost year for the #1 pick, it is better that it is a safe one.