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Heston Kjerstad


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#41 dude

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Posted 10 June 2020 - 11:05 PM

https://twitter.com/...1747226624?s=21


https://twitter.com/...6319769601?s=21

 

Apparently we let Blaine Knight make the pick. "...it's a bold strategy..."



#42 SportsGuy

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Posted 11 June 2020 - 06:26 AM

For all of us who don’t love this pick, the shortened season could really end up telling the tale here.

The walk rates and strikeout rates weren’t good in college the first 2 years...but they improved this year in a SSS of 16 games.

It’s very possible that this is just an improvement in a SSS and means nothing. It also could mean he is making adjustments and perhaps if the full season played out, he would have been an easy #2 guy and wouldn’t be someone going underslot.

We will find out. I tend to not believe in the idea that 16 games means a dramatic shift but if he can hit for average and shows power, the walks will be there and the Ks won’t matter.

#43 Nigel Tufnel

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Posted 11 June 2020 - 07:38 AM

I'm waiting on Keith Law to tell me what to think.

 

• The surprises started at No. 2, with Baltimore going for my No. 11 prospect: Arkansas outfielder Heston Kjerstad. Kjerstad is a big power bat with some tools, but he’s also a right fielder and has had issues with swinging and missing — enough that I think this pick was a reach with Austin Martin still on the board (among others). If that pick was to save money, rather than a straight preference for Kjerstad, the Orioles didn’t take advantage of it at No. 30, the first selection of the competitive balance A round, at which they took Mississippi State shortstop Jordan Westburg, a very good athlete who also strikes out too much and has to work on pitch recognition as well as reducing his leak at the plate.

 

https://theathletic....-the-mlb-draft/



#44 NewMarketSean

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Posted 11 June 2020 - 07:45 AM

Great. So two guys who will wiff a lot. Hopefully they're the "They K a lot but they get on base a lot too" variety.


I never had friends later on like the ones I had when I was twelve. Jesus, does anyone?

#45 SportsGuy

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Posted 11 June 2020 - 07:50 AM

I think people are too wrapped up in the Ks.

Ks are important if you aren’t hitting for average.

He has a career 343 average, with 327 being his worst average.

Westburg hasn’t been as good with his BA, so he’s more of a concern. Everything I have seen on him is that his upside is higher than he has performed so far. We will see how hard of a worker he is and how coachable he is.

The team needs IF talent and he has a good upside but I don’t love this pick. I like the Kjerstad pick a lot more and I don’t love that one either.

#46 dude

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Posted 11 June 2020 - 10:22 AM

Looking at mlb.com's rankings, I'd guess Hjerstad falls in somewhere around 30.  JJ Bleday is at 28 and seems to have the slightly better profile.  Alec Bohm is at 30 so that seems about the right grouping today.  Could maybe go as low as 42 where Nolan Jones is. 



#47 Mackus

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Posted 11 June 2020 - 10:39 AM

Looking at mlb.com's rankings, I'd guess Hjerstad falls in somewhere around 30.  JJ Bleday is at 28 and seems to have the slightly better profile.  Alec Bohm is at 30 so that seems about the right grouping today.  Could maybe go as low as 42 where Nolan Jones is. 

 

Seems high to me.

 

He got drafted #2 but most boards had him as a back-end or just outside top-10 talent.  If he gets rated just on draft position, then maybe he's ranked as high as you suggest.  But if scouting lists consider him as a reach or underslot guy with a lower true talent level, I think he'd be in the back-half of the top-100.

 

Recent #2 and #10 draftees and how they were ranked on top-100 lists prior to the following season:

 

#10

2019 Hunter Bishop - #71 / #68

2018 Travis Swaggerty - #87 / #82

2017 Jordan Adell - #46 / #62 / #38

2016 Zack Collins - #56 / #81 / #89

2015 Cornelius Randolph - #88 / #84

 

#2

2019 Bobby Witt - #24 / #10 / #29

2018 Joey Bart - #29 / #22 / #41

2017 Hunter Greene - #29 / #21 / #39

2016 Nick Senzel - #9 / #26 / #20

2015 Alex Bregman - #42 / #22 / #29

 

All of these guys of course had a partial season to play, so that drove their ranking up or down depending on how well they played. 



#48 JeremyStrain

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Posted 11 June 2020 - 10:45 AM

I think people are too wrapped up in the Ks.

Ks are important if you aren’t hitting for average.

He has a career 343 average, with 327 being his worst average.

Westburg hasn’t been as good with his BA, so he’s more of a concern. Everything I have seen on him is that his upside is higher than he has performed so far. We will see how hard of a worker he is and how coachable he is.

The team needs IF talent and he has a good upside but I don’t love this pick. I like the Kjerstad pick a lot more and I don’t love that one either.


I mean Harper has been at 170+ strikeouts the past 2 years.

 

#1-3 in HR last year:

 

Alonso - 53 HR - 183k

Suarez - 49 HR - 189k

Soler - 48 HR - 178k

 

THIS is the type of player Kjerstad is. These guys hit between .260-.271. Kjerstad has a better hit tool than that.

 

The next tier of power guys are like Bellinger, Trout and Yelich. These guys are MVP candidates because they hit .290 plus, AND walk, AND steal bases, AND play good defense.

 

You can throw Kjerstad into the defense mix with them, the average COULD get there, depends on how his pitch recognition training goes, but early signs from Cape Cod are good. But he probably won't be that 100 walk guy, or steal you 30 bases. So he'll stay a tier or two below those guys because of it, but absolutely in the mix with those first 3. Although I think Alonso might get his average up a bit and challenge the MVP tier eventually, he's still really young.


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#49 dude

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Posted 11 June 2020 - 11:00 AM

Seems high to me.

 

He got drafted #2 but most boards had him as a back-end or just outside top-10 talent.  If he gets rated just on draft position, then maybe he's ranked as high as you suggest.  But if scouting lists consider him as a reach or underslot guy with a lower true talent level, I think he'd be in the back-half of the top-100.

 

Recent #2 and #10 draftees and how they were ranked on top-100 lists prior to the following season:

 

Maybe. We'll see.  I think the rankings get biased by the results of the draft some.  I'm not so much comparing draft position from recent drafts as comparing similar players and where they sit on that list.

 

I think the guys selected 1-2 last year were significantly better profiles than the top of this draft but you likely have more guys that were bunched, talent-wise, behind them...guys like Veen to Hendrick (Hassell, Hjerstad, Crow-Armstrong, Mitchell)....they're all at different places, but similar risk/reward type profiles.

 

A guy like Jordan Walker probably winds up somewhere around Mountcastle in the rankings.



#50 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 11 June 2020 - 11:00 AM


Looking at mlb.com's rankings, I'd guess Hjerstad falls in somewhere around 30. JJ Bleday is at 28 and seems to have the slightly better profile. Alec Bohm is at 30 so that seems about the right grouping today. Could maybe go as low as 42 where Nolan Jones is.

If he cracks any top 50s this year its only because he was #2 pick.

#51 SportsGuy

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Posted 11 June 2020 - 11:02 AM

He won’t crack the top 50, especially without being able to play in the minors this year.

Martin will be ranked higher than him because of reputation imo.

#52 dude

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Posted 11 June 2020 - 11:02 AM

If he cracks any top 50s this year its only because he was #2 pick.

 

Right, you have 6 OFers in that talent grouping that probably sit in the 30-75 range and the actual draft selections will bias it some.



#53 dude

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Posted 11 June 2020 - 11:03 AM

Martin will be ranked higher than him because of reputation imo.

 

I think he'll get ranked in the 20s around CJ Abrams.



#54 Mackus

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Posted 11 June 2020 - 11:05 AM

I think the rankings get biased by the results of the draft some.

Absolutely. Heavily biased.

If I get a chance I'll go back and see if any recent top picks were clearly underslot guys, and how they were rated right away compared to guys with full bonuses.

#55 Slidemaster

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Posted 11 June 2020 - 11:10 AM


I mean Harper has been at 170+ strikeouts the past 2 years.

#1-3 in HR last year:

Alonso - 53 HR - 183k
Suarez - 49 HR - 189k
Soler - 48 HR - 178k

THIS is the type of player Kjerstad is. These guys hit between .260-.271. Kjerstad has a better hit tool than that.

The next tier of power guys are like Bellinger, Trout and Yelich. These guys are MVP candidates because they hit .290 plus, AND walk, AND steal bases, AND play good defense.

You can throw Kjerstad into the defense mix with them, the average COULD get there, depends on how his pitch recognition training goes, but early signs from Cape Cod are good. But he probably won't be that 100 walk guy, or steal you 30 bases. So he'll stay a tier or two below those guys because of it, but absolutely in the mix with those first 3. Although I think Alonso might get his average up a bit and challenge the MVP tier eventually, he's still really young.


His hit tool is rated as a 45 now. That's better than those guys?

#56 dude

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Posted 11 June 2020 - 11:17 AM

Arkansas team-mate Casey Martin still seems like the play.  He can put first round money out there and with enough questions, he just starts falling down the board.  Pretty easy for Hjerstad and Martin to be sitting there exchangogramming right now.



#57 JeremyStrain

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Posted 11 June 2020 - 11:32 AM

His hit tool is rated as a 45 now. That's better than those guys?


That means if you stuck him in the majors TODAY, he'd hit just below ML average (which is what a 50 would be). That's somewhere around .250 today...with zero development.

 

What you want to look for, and this is where you see discrepancies based on who you talk to, but what his tools PROJECT to be in 2-3 years when he hits the majors. Like I think I've seen his power rated about 70, which is plus-plus and pretty darn elite. You'll only see one or two guys that have an 80 in something. I think power wise, it's Gallo, and Stanton I think last I checked were the only two there...but I've been out the game for a while so to speak so I'm not up on that stuff. Guys like Alonso could be there, but I think he was a 70 guy too.

 

If he's at 45 today hit tool, it's probably projected to be something closer to 55-60 which is above avg/plus. You are talking .270-.280 hitter at that point. But you'd have to get ahold of someone that's seen him and has actual grades...even then there's a sliding scale cause one guy might have him at 60, another 55 and another 50. Subjectivity you know?


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#58 JeremyStrain

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Posted 11 June 2020 - 11:36 AM

Arkansas team-mate Casey Martin still seems like the play.  He can put first round money out there and with enough questions, he just starts falling down the board.  Pretty easy for Hjerstad and Martin to be sitting there exchangogramming right now.


Would have rather had him than the guy we took at 30. Has ELITE speed, 80 - which is like game changing speed, and average tools everywhere else. If he could play half way decent defense, and draw some walks, could be a difference maker at the top of the order.

 

Have a feeling he ends up one of those guys that moves to CF, and then plays off the bench as a pinch runner mostly cause the hit tool and defense hold him back from being a legit starter that can USE his speed. But I'm just guessing, haven't seen him or anything. Just heresay.


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#59 Slidemaster

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Posted 11 June 2020 - 11:36 AM


That means if you stuck him in the majors TODAY, he'd hit just below ML average (which is what a 50 would be). That's somewhere around .250 today...with zero development.

What you want to look for, and this is where you see discrepancies based on who you talk to, but what his tools PROJECT to be in 2-3 years when he hits the majors. Like I think I've seen his power rated about 70, which is plus-plus and pretty darn elite. You'll only see one or two guys that have an 80 in something. I think power wise, it's Gallo, and Stanton I think last I checked were the only two there...but I've been out the game for a while so to speak so I'm not up on that stuff. Guys like Alonso could be there, but I think he was a 70 guy too.

If he's at 45 today hit tool, it's probably projected to be something closer to 55-60 which is above avg/plus. You are talking .270-.280 hitter at that point. But you'd have to get ahold of someone that's seen him and has actual grades...even then there's a sliding scale cause one guy might have him at 60, another 55 and another 50. Subjectivity you know?

His power is a 60 and his hit tool is a 45 as of today. If .250 is the MLB average and he's 10% below that (45 is 90% of 50), he would be expected to hit .225 today. If his hit tool develops by 5 points (a substantial leap) he becomes a .250 hitter with good power, no speed, and a ton of Ks. MLB is littered with those guys.

#60 SportsGuy

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Posted 11 June 2020 - 11:38 AM

BA has his power tool at 70.

If he can hit even 260 and has that type of power, he will have an OBp around 350 and his slugging will be 500+.

He has so much power that if he has hits for a good enough average, teams will stay away from him enough to where the walks will come.

He may never walk 100+ times but if he can walk 45-70 times a year and carry a 260+ BA, he will be an outstanding player.




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