459 replies to this topic

[SportsGuy]

His power is a 60 and his hit tool is a 45 as of today. If .250 is the MLB average and he's 10% below that (45 is 90% of 50), he would be expected to hit .225 today. If his hit tool develops by 5 points (a substantial leap) he becomes a .250 hitter with good power, no speed, and a ton of Ks. MLB is littered with those guys.

You are quoting one site that has hit tool at 45, right?

[Slidemaster]

BA has his power tool at 70.

If he can hit even 260 and has that type of power, he will have an OBp around 350 and his slugging will be 500+.

He has so much power that if he has hits for a good enough average, teams will stay away from him enough to where the walks will come.

He may never walk 100+ times but if he can walk 45-70 times a year and carry a 260+ BA, he will be an outstanding player.

That is a massive jump from his MLB prospect profile. I wonder how they came to such different conclusions.

[JeremyStrain]

His power is a 60 and his hit tool is a 45 as of today. If .250 is the MLB average and he's 10% below that (45 is 90% of 50), he would be expected to hit .225 today. If his hit tool develops by 5 points (a substantial leap) he becomes a .250 hitter with good power, no speed, and a ton of Ks. MLB is littered with those guys.

Here, use this as a guide:

 

https://blogs.fangra...scouting-scale/

 

But those today numbers aren't telling you anything, cause you don't get drafted and go straight to the majors. I've seen multiple guys rate his power at 70 with real strong confidence.

 

But as I said in my post earlier...in one of the threads...i'm all over the place this morning...the top 3 HR hitters in baseball were those types of hitters. .260 - 50 HR - 180k. That's a pretty safe guess at his projection, but I think it's selling his hit tool a bit short, and I think he ends up a little higher average wise. Bellinger, Trout, Yelich are .290-.300 guys with that kind of power...but also have speed, walks  and defense. Kjerstad COULD get close to them average wise, power he's there, and defense...but he'll be behind them because he won't draw 100 walks and steal 30 bases like they will.

[SportsGuy]

That is a massive jump from his MLB prospect profile. I wonder how they came to such different conclusions.

That’s why it’s foolish to rely so much on this.

Everyone sees guys differently.

End of the day, here is what you can look at.

Most people have him as one of the 3-7 best position players in the draft. The Os weren’t going pitching early and good chance they weren’t going HS player.

So, that narrowed it down to probably 3-5 players who were really in the mix. Out of those players, they liked Kjerstad as much or more than the rest of them or, at the very least, felt that they were all close enough that taking the guy who would be much cheaper was the smarter way to go.

If that was their assessment, they were right.

If they felt Martin was easily the better player and they went the cheap way, I have an issue with that..but I don’t believe that to be the case, especially since their scouting director worked on the Vandy coaching staff and knows Martin well.

For all the talk about Martin, if he ends up at second and never develops his power, teams will attack him and he won’t be that good.

There is risk in all of these guys and this year is harder than most because they didn’t get to see them as much as normal.

[JeremyStrain]

That is a massive jump from his MLB prospect profile. I wonder how they came to such different conclusions.

The prospect profile isn't scouting, it's just where they think he is AT THIS MOMENT if he were in MLB.

 

When you scout you get 2 grades. Current...which is loosely what you see there...and future which is what they think he'll be at when he goes through development and hits the majors. I've seen a solid 70 on his power there, but haven't seen projections on his hit tool, so I'm guessing there.

[Slidemaster]

Here, use this as a guide:

https://blogs.fangra...scouting-scale/

But those today numbers aren't telling you anything, cause you don't get drafted and go straight to the majors. I've seen multiple guys rate his power at 70 with real strong confidence.

But as I said in my post earlier...in one of the threads...i'm all over the place this morning...the top 3 HR hitters in baseball were those types of hitters. .260 - 50 HR - 180k. That's a pretty safe guess at his projection, but I think it's selling his hit tool a bit short, and I think he ends up a little higher average wise. Bellinger, Trout, Yelich are .290-.300 guys with that kind of power...but also have speed, walks and defense. Kjerstad COULD get close to them average wise, power he's there, and defense...but he'll be behind them because he won't draw 100 walks and steal 30 bases like they will.

You think projecting him as a 50 homer guy is "safe?"

[dude]

Most people have him as one of the 3-7 best position players in the draft. 

 

I don't think it's reasonable to just parse out the position players there, simply because they didn't want a pitcher.

 

He was one of the 8-12 best players in the draft and if they want to exclude a group of them (pitchers, HS, whatever), that's on them.  That's not justification for value at 1-2.

 

For all the talk about Martin, if he ends up at second and never develops his power, teams will attack him and he won’t be that good.

 

smh

[SportsGuy]

https://twitter.com/...2299974665?s=21

[JeremyStrain]

You think projecting him as a 50 homer guy is "safe?"

No, I'm saying that if he develops a little bit more that's the kind of power he has. His RAW power is almost there already, it's not like you're saying if he does a, b, and c, he will be able to hit 50 HR. It's really a matter of if he will make enough contact to hit 50, but he's easily got the power to do it.

[SportsGuy]

I don't think it's reasonable to just parse out the position players there, simply because they didn't want a pitcher.

He was one of the 8-12 best players in the draft and if they want to exclude a group of them (pitchers, HS, whatever), that's on them. That's not justification for value at 1-2.


smh

Why are you shaking your head? That’s a true statement.

And it is fair to take out pitchers if the Os weren’t really considering any of them at 2.

[Mackus]

Why are you shaking your head? That’s a true statement.

And it is fair to take out pitchers if the Os weren’t really considering any of them at 2.

 

If the O's eliminate top talents for reasons, they have to own those reasons.  Put another way, Kjerstad doesn't get better ranked overall just because (if) the O's were only looking at hitters. 

[Slidemaster]

No, I'm saying that if he develops a little bit more that's the kind of power he has. His RAW power is almost there already, it's not like you're saying if he does a, b, and c, he will be able to hit 50 HR. It's really a matter of if he will make enough contact to hit 50, but he's easily got the power to do it.

I don't think it's fair to say he only has to develop a little bit more. There are probably 30 or 40 guys in the majors with a power to hit 50 home runs if they can make enough contact. It doesn't change the fact that it's an extremely rare feat.

Frankly, I'm more concerned if he can get to 30 home runs than 50.

[SportsGuy]

If the O's eliminate top talents for reasons, they have to own those reasons. Put another way, Kjerstad doesn't get better ranked overall just because (if) the O's were only looking at hitters.

No of course not...but I also think it’s fair to say that if the Os didn’t look at pitching and didn’t feel anyone was worthy of the second pick, that we only look at the players they liked.

To me, when you look back at this pick, you do so comparing him to guys like Martin and Gonzalez..not Lacy and Meyer.

[Mike B]

In fairness, we did see signs that the Orioles liked Kjerstad in the weeks leading to the draft.  I think we all have a tendency to buy into Mocks, and just about every Mock we saw had Tork, Martin and Lacy going 1-2-3.

 

I am not going to rip the kid or the pick because I know very little about him.  I am suspicious, that money drove this pick, mainly because that is who the Orioles are.  It is also very possibler that Kjerstad and Westburg fit the profile of player the Elias Orioles want.  

 

Looking for them to spend some of that unspent slot money tonight

[Mackus]

No of course not...but I also think it’s fair to say that if the Os didn’t look at pitching and didn’t feel anyone was worthy of the second pick, that we only look at the players they liked.

To me, when you look back at this pick, you do so comparing him to guys like Martin and Gonzalez..not Lacy and Meyer.

 

I'm fine with that, only comparing him in retrospect to other position players that were available.  Also would need to account somehow for any overslot guys they were able to get later with the savings.  Hopefully that happens.  If not...

[Slidemaster]

I'm fine with that, only comparing him in retrospect to other position players that were available. Also would need to account somehow for any overslot guys they were able to get later with the savings. Hopefully that happens. If not...

If it doesn't happen, this draft was an utter failure.

[Mike B]

I'm fine with that, only comparing him in retrospect to other position players that were available.  Also would need to account somehow for any overslot guys they were able to get later with the savings.  Hopefully that happens.  If not...

If not the Elias honeymoon will be over and the Angelos boys are going to see the heat.

[JeremyStrain]

I don't think it's fair to say he only has to develop a little bit more. There are probably 30 or 40 guys in the majors with a power to hit 50 home runs if they can make enough contact. It doesn't change the fact that it's an extremely rare feat.

Frankly, I'm more concerned if he can get to 30 home runs than 50.

Not even close to 30-40 guys. Probably closer to 20.

 

There are TWO guys in baseball with an 80 grade. And one of them hit 30 because he only hit .210 last year. Harper is stuck in the 30 range cause he's hitting in the .230s. Get those guys up to .260-.270 and they are closing on 50.

 

But that's just where our opinions differ here, you think he's more likely to hit for Gallo-like .210-.220 which with his raw power will probably put him near 30. I think he's more likely to hit near .270 which I think gets him in 50 range.

 

Your point is valid about hitting 30 or 50, but the concern is on the hit tool side of it, not the raw power. It's just a matter of how much you believe in his hit tool. .345 career in SEC and over .500 in Cape Cod with wood bats give me a little more positivity than others.

 

But you also have to admit you've been biased from the jump on this guy that you thought it was a terrible pick and he was going to be trash, so you are going to look much more negatively at it.

[Mike B]

If it doesn't happen, this draft was an utter failure.

No, it will not be an utter failure, until Kjerstad and Westburg and the others  fail.  Just because you do not like the picks or they do not spend every nickel, makes the draft a failure.

 

Let's not write the players off before they take the first swing.

[SportsGuy]

If it doesn't happen, this draft was an utter failure.

Well, it depends on how guys turn out but as of right now, knowing that you tanked, had the most draft money, etc..I would agree it would be a failure in the moment.