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#441 BobPhelan

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Posted 23 May 2022 - 08:05 AM


I'll be interested to see what they do with Mancini, Santander, Lopez, and Tate. Guess Lyles too, since there is an option.
Get the argument of why any of them would be made available. Don't think any would necessarily have to be moved. Lopez in particular, I'd be tempted to keep, even if you could now be selling high.

If they elect not to extend Mancini and move him; I don't see a need to also move Santander.
I'd rather have Santander also being around, vs. just opening a spot for Neustrom (or a rotation at DH), even though I agree Neustrom could approximate the production.

Santander is a JAG, but he's got a .762 OPS, and a couple more years of control. Just rather him also be around as another option until he is completely forced out. Also because I don't see him bringing back much.

Henderson has to be nearing a promotion to AAA. If he put up 2 productive months at Norfolk, he could be up before the year ends.

Westburg has rebounded from his funk, and the OPS is back over .800. Another good 10-14 days, and I also see him being moved to Norfolk. I'm still thinking he's going to find ML time this year.


Between Rustchman getting plenty of at bats at DH and Stowers and Neustrom demanding a shot, I think I’d prefer to move him. At least if you can get something solid for him.

#442 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 23 May 2022 - 08:22 AM


I'll be interested to see what they do with Mancini, Santander, Lopez, and Tate. Guess Lyles too, since there is an option.
Get the argument of why any of them would be made available. Don't think any would necessarily have to be moved. Lopez in particular, I'd be tempted to keep, even if you could now be selling high.

If they elect not to extend Mancini and move him; I don't see a need to also move Santander.
I'd rather have Santander also being around, vs. just opening a spot for Neustrom (or a rotation at DH), even though I agree Neustrom could approximate the production.

Santander is a JAG, but he's got a .762 OPS, and a couple more years of control. Just rather him also be around as another option until he is completely forced out. Also because I don't see him bringing back much.

Henderson has to be nearing a promotion to AAA. If he put up 2 productive months at Norfolk, he could be up before the year ends.

Westburg has rebounded from his funk, and the OPS is back over .800. Another good 10-14 days, and I also see him being moved to Norfolk. I'm still thinking he's going to find ML time this year.

Santander not wanting to DH is an issue for me. The bigger issue is his lack of a hit tool. The walks are now dropping. He is a .260 hitter at best. . Defense obviously wont get better as he ages. He's just not in my plans beyond this year. I just dont see a way he changes my mind in the next 4 months. Independent of Santander is Trey for me. Ive been all over the map on Trey. The guy can hit. Hes a professional hitter on a team that needs that. Not to mention leadership. As of today I'd like to see them work out a 3 yr deal and have him as the DH/1b. With that could come an opportunity to move Mountcastle in a deal for a more pressing piece. A SP. A SS/3b/2b
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#443 BSLRoseKatz

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Posted 23 May 2022 - 11:51 AM

I think the stability Lyles would provide in the rotation is worth more than whatever random package of a Latin teenager and high-A guy who's struggling they'd probably get for him. I know he has no long term value but I think the domino effect on the other arms if he leaves would be pretty notable. 



#444 JeremyStrain

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Posted 23 May 2022 - 12:02 PM

Santander not wanting to DH is an issue for me. The bigger issue is his lack of a hit tool. The walks are now dropping. He is a .260 hitter at best. . Defense obviously wont get better as he ages. He's just not in my plans beyond this year. I just dont see a way he changes my mind in the next 4 months. Independent of Santander is Trey for me. Ive been all over the map on Trey. The guy can hit. Hes a professional hitter on a team that needs that. Not to mention leadership. As of today I'd like to see them work out a 3 yr deal and have him as the DH/1b. With that could come an opportunity to move Mountcastle in a deal for a more pressing piece. A SP. A SS/3b/2b


Here's the real trick to rebuilding though, and where most teams get it wrong. You look at right now, and filling that infield space looks so important. But when you've got a giant wave of players in the minors not real far from being ready that play those positions, is it a good allocation of trade pieces to trade for something you could have for free in another year, maybe 2? Is there another spot where you can trade for something that makes you more of a complete team that you can't easily replace?

 

I don't have an answer for sure, but I know when I look at the glut of Henderson, Westburg, Prieto, Ortiz, even Mateo when you consider what a good defensive SS does for you. It makes me less sure of what to throw into that mix or what to give up.

 

Sounds cliche, but I kinda think they are in this window where the best thing they can do is play them and see who develops and thrives, then you worry about who needs replacing.


I just see a lot of teams get right about here, then start making 3-1 or 4-1 trades for a big name, only to see some of those kids traded be REALLY good pieces later. I'm not at the point where I have faith in the club keeping the talent pipeline flowing yet, too many years of being beaten down to take the carrot yet, so me personally I'm SUUUUPER cautious in the approach right now.


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#445 You Play to Win the Game

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Posted 23 May 2022 - 12:50 PM

Extremely SSS alert, but loving Adley's 5.3 Pitches/PA so far. MLB Average is 3.9.


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#446 Mike in STL

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Posted 23 May 2022 - 01:12 PM

I don’t think it’s tear down mode to trade guys that aren’t long term keepers in a season where you have no shot at the playoffs. And they may only trade one of Mancini/Santander to open up a spot for Stowers.

Elias making a point to mention payroll flexibility for the first time I can recall is interesting. I don’t think they’re gonna go “all in” this offseason but any moves will be made with a different motive than they have been since he took over.


If they trade Mancini for prospects, those are going to be guys not making an impact in 2023, if at all because of the volatile nature of prospects. If they are going to trade him this year, they should have traded him last year and maximize the return, and those guys acquired in 2021 are maybe making in impact in ‘23.

Trading Mancini at this deadline makes me question their entire mindset and intelligence. Did they think last year they were going to contend in ‘22 so that’s why he wasn’t moved? If they thought ‘22 was going to be a turning it around kind of year, why make zero effort to bolster the roster around RM, Hays, Mullins, again?

Mancini is the perfect kind of player the Orioles should extend. Like a Jones, Markakis, they are solid, consistent, leaders. They are borderline All-Stars but not superstars that break your bank. That’s the O’s wheelhouse. They aren’t the Rays who are great year in and out with very little payroll. They aren’t the LAD, NYY who buy their success. They, like most teams, are at their best when they develop a handful of cost controlled talent, and extend some of their own guys, and supplement them with decent outside FAs that take payroll to the middle of the pack.

The Orioles are not going to have a successful team if every single person on the 26-man came through the O’s minor league system, and hasn’t been extended yet. They will not be successful in ‘23 if your Aug-Sept. ‘22 roster is largely the roster next opening day.

So I still think if you trade Mancini, you are still tearing down.


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#447 Mackus

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Posted 23 May 2022 - 01:30 PM

You could trade Mancini and then resign him in the offseason.  Unlikely, but possible.

 

I'd only trade Mancini at his request or at least with his strong consent for non-baseball reasons.  And I'm very open to an extension, have talked for awhile about how I expect him to get 4/$55-60M like a few comparable players have recently gotten.  But he is a pending free agent (unless his mutual option allows the Orioles to retain him even if he wants out, which I don't think we know for sure but I would be surprised to find out).  No guarantee he's here next year even if you don't trade him and you want to resign him.  He has choices now.



#448 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 23 May 2022 - 01:52 PM


Here's the real trick to rebuilding though, and where most teams get it wrong. You look at right now, and filling that infield space looks so important. But when you've got a giant wave of players in the minors not real far from being ready that play those positions, is it a good allocation of trade pieces to trade for something you could have for free in another year, maybe 2? Is there another spot where you can trade for something that makes you more of a complete team that you can't easily replace?

I don't have an answer for sure, but I know when I look at the glut of Henderson, Westburg, Prieto, Ortiz, even Mateo when you consider what a good defensive SS does for you. It makes me less sure of what to throw into that mix or what to give up.

Sounds cliche, but I kinda think they are in this window where the best thing they can do is play them and see who develops and thrives, then you worry about who needs replacing.

I just see a lot of teams get right about here, then start making 3-1 or 4-1 trades for a big name, only to see some of those kids traded be REALLY good pieces later. I'm not at the point where I have faith in the club keeping the talent pipeline flowing yet, too many years of being beaten down to take the carrot yet, so me personally I'm SUUUUPER cautious in the approach right now.

Ideally, for me, Im able to fill 2 of SS, 3B, 2B internally and then I fill the last spot through FA or trade. Ok, yeah ideally you fill all 3 internally and use money or trade assets on another area. Realistically, Im good with planning to fill 1 of them from outside the organization.

#449 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 23 May 2022 - 01:55 PM

I'd trade Mancini before Mountcastle for sure!



#450 BobPhelan

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Posted 23 May 2022 - 02:57 PM

If they trade Mancini for prospects, those are going to be guys not making an impact in 2023, if at all because of the volatile nature of prospects. If they are going to trade him this year, they should have traded him last year and maximize the return, and those guys acquired in 2021 are maybe making in impact in ‘23.

Trading Mancini at this deadline makes me question their entire mindset and intelligence. Did they think last year they were going to contend in ‘22 so that’s why he wasn’t moved? If they thought ‘22 was going to be a turning it around kind of year, why make zero effort to bolster the roster around RM, Hays, Mullins, again?

Mancini is the perfect kind of player the Orioles should extend. Like a Jones, Markakis, they are solid, consistent, leaders. They are borderline All-Stars but not superstars that break your bank. That’s the O’s wheelhouse. They aren’t the Rays who are great year in and out with very little payroll. They aren’t the LAD, NYY who buy their success. They, like most teams, are at their best when they develop a handful of cost controlled talent, and extend some of their own guys, and supplement them with decent outside FAs that take payroll to the middle of the pack.

The Orioles are not going to have a successful team if every single person on the 26-man came through the O’s minor league system, and hasn’t been extended yet. They will not be successful in ‘23 if your Aug-Sept. ‘22 roster is largely the roster next opening day.

So I still think if you trade Mancini, you are still tearing down.


There is no universe they traded him in his return year from cancer unless completely overwhelmed with an offer. Trading Mancini isn’t tearing down. He’s a DH entering his 30’s. The clubhouse will be Adley, Grayson, and DL’s next season.
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#451 makoman

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Posted 23 May 2022 - 03:04 PM

There is no universe they traded him in his return year from cancer unless completely overwhelmed with an offer. Trading Mancini isn’t tearing down. He’s a DH entering his 30’s. The clubhouse will be Adley, Grayson, and DL’s next season.


Also, just because the return probably won’t make a big impact in 2023 doesn’t mean it would be useless. You always have to be mindful of the future. If you can get some team’s say early 2021 Mayo (you can’t) who cares if he helps next year? You want more talent period. I don’t see how it’s tearing down to trade a guy who’s not even under contract next year (yeah, mutual option).

That said, I don’t expect him to be traded. I think they are a bit mindful of the PR hit and he’s the last guy they’d trade. For example Elias changed his tune from file and trial only pretty quickly.
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#452 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 23 May 2022 - 03:29 PM

Yeah, its hard to see a match for Trey. That said, if he requests it the IM sure ELias will find the best deal for him.



#453 Mike in STL

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Posted 23 May 2022 - 06:01 PM

There is no universe they traded him in his return year from cancer unless completely overwhelmed with an offer. Trading Mancini isn’t tearing down. He’s a DH entering his 30’s. The clubhouse will be Adley, Grayson, and DL’s next season.


I have high hopes for those guys but there is zero leadership there. What do they know about adversity? About being a pro?

A competitive team needs veterans. I respect you and your work a lot. You know way more about the prospects than anyone here, or in this city. But I wonder if you’re getting caught up in the excitement of the prospects coming and not seeing the forest through the trees. Im not trying to take a jab at you, just sayin’. A handful of highly anticipated guys that may debut in the next 4 months, won’t amount to anything. That’s just part of the game. Injuries are going to happen. Guys just won’t get it. Maybe a couple will.

If Mancini is traded, it’s still tearing down the old, and bringing in new. If that’s the case, so be it. But they had better make serious plays in FA this year, then they will be building and hopefully done tearing down. The Aug.-Sept. version of this team you laid out isn’t a good team. If thats what you were insinuating, maybe you weren't anyway.

Extending Mancini is one less spot needing addressing if they intend to build.
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#454 BobPhelan

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Posted 23 May 2022 - 09:29 PM

I have high hopes for those guys but there is zero leadership there. What do they know about adversity? About being a pro?

A competitive team needs veterans. I respect you and your work a lot. You know way more about the prospects than anyone here, or in this city. But I wonder if you’re getting caught up in the excitement of the prospects coming and not seeing the forest through the trees. Im not trying to take a jab at you, just sayin’. A handful of highly anticipated guys that may debut in the next 4 months, won’t amount to anything. That’s just part of the game. Injuries are going to happen. Guys just won’t get it. Maybe a couple will.

If Mancini is traded, it’s still tearing down the old, and bringing in new. If that’s the case, so be it. But they had better make serious plays in FA this year, then they will be building and hopefully done tearing down. The Aug.-Sept. version of this team you laid out isn’t a good team. If thats what you were insinuating, maybe you weren't anyway.

Extending Mancini is one less spot needing addressing if they intend to build.


I say it will be their team based on their personalities more than their skill level. I agree they will need a veteran presence, I just don’t think it’ll be Trey. It’s too bad Odor isn’t better because it seems like he’s been a great influence in the clubhouse.

The Aug-Sep roster will be better than the team right now and will be more exciting to watch night in and night out as important pieces of the future develop at the major league level. That’s all.
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#455 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 03 June 2022 - 08:35 AM

Patiently waiting for Adley to do something.

 

Not worried but this isn't a good stat. At this point he has more errors (2) than rbis (0)!!!!



#456 NewMarketSean

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Posted 03 June 2022 - 08:36 AM

Was hoping for more of a “hit the ground running” start for the best prospect in the game. But I am willing to write off this season for him regardless of what happens.
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#457 Old Man

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Posted 03 June 2022 - 08:37 AM

I'd trade Mancini before Mountcastle for sure!

Sad to say, I think they dump both.



#458 makoman

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Posted 03 June 2022 - 08:45 AM

He's been a little bit unlucky, though not greatly so. Higher hard hit and line drive % than MLB average. Success is always preferred but it'll be a while before I have any great concerns. It'd be different if he looked bad but I don't think he does.



#459 russsnyder

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Posted 03 June 2022 - 09:20 AM

Despite the results, I think he looks really good at the plate. He sees a lot of pitches and he has that controlled, violent stroke.
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#460 Mackus

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Posted 03 June 2022 - 09:24 AM

Despite the results, I think he looks really good at the plate. He sees a lot of pitches and he has that controlled, violent stroke.

 

I haven't been able to watch as much as I'd like, but I'm seeing the same thing.


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