Photo

2019 MLB Draft


  • Please log in to reply
395 replies to this topic

#41 JeremyStrain

JeremyStrain

    Moderator

  • Moderators
  • 13,221 posts
  • LocationFormerly known as allstar1579

Posted 08 March 2019 - 11:00 AM

I'd only consider position and organizational depth as a tie-breaker among a couple similarly rated guys if there isn't a clear cut #1.  If the clear #1 guy is a SS, and I've already got a stud SS, I'm still taking the clear #1 SS over the lower rated #2 player.

 

Lower in the draft, I'd consider position much more strongly as a factor, as the players start bunching up and you inherently will have to break some ties or at least effective ties.  My theory is that there is less of a bunch between the #1 and #2 guy most years.  And history has borne that out in retrospect, there is a massive chasm of expected value between the #1 and #2 picks, larger than the gaps anywhere else even across multiple pick ranges.

 

This. The only time I'm considering position at the top of the draft is in how it will affect the player over time, or how well they play it. Say this year for example, if you think he's not going to hold up as well because Catchers take a lot of abuse, long term it may make a SS more valuable if they are closely rated. Also there are a lot of parts to a catcher's defensive game, and if he's not great back there, to where you may move him, then you need to evaluate that bat vs a different position, and you are doing it blind because you don't know how well he will play that new position.


@JeremyMStrain

#42 BSLSteveBirrer

BSLSteveBirrer

    Soccer Analyst

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 8,974 posts
  • LocationMS and ID

Posted 08 March 2019 - 03:53 PM


Wieters underachieved given the astronomical expectations that he had placed on him (based on crushing competition below him at the A and AA levels).... but he had a very successful career when you remove those expectations. 

Chris, I agree that he had unrealistic expectations put on him. I agree he had a successful career here. But I don't think his successful career was "impressive." Expectations aside I think he still underachieved what most realists were thinking.



#43 BSLChrisStoner

BSLChrisStoner

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 148,682 posts

Posted 08 March 2019 - 04:08 PM

Chris, I agree that he had unrealistic expectations put on him. I agree he had a successful career here. But I don't think his successful career was "impressive." Expectations aside I think he still underachieved what most realists were thinking.

 

Something like 33% of 1st round picks never even reach the Majors...  Wieters not only reached the Majors, he was a 4x All Star, 2 Gold Glove... in the scheme of things overall, he was a success. 

He definitely underachieved based on the expectations that ballooned after his 2008 MiL season... 



#44 Nigel Tufnel

Nigel Tufnel

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 7,030 posts

Posted 15 March 2019 - 12:24 PM

Mac
1:22
How much does Vaughn have to hit to justify being picked ahead of Witt Jr or Abrams? Does he have to be the best hitting 1B in baseball for 5+ years?
 
Keith Law
1:23
There's an implicit assumption there about Witt Jr/Abrams that I'm not sure we entirely agree on, but you omit the other benefit Vaughn might offer: proximity. He's in the majors in 12-18 months. Maybe sooner if he's really this good right now. (I'll see him in a week.) A win today is worth more than a win in five years to contending clubs - and, I believe, in the trade market.


#45 BSLStephenCLoftus

BSLStephenCLoftus

    Orioles Analyst

  • Members
  • 59 posts

Posted 09 April 2019 - 08:15 PM

BSL: A Year in the Life of the Draft

https://www.baltimor...ear-life-draft/


  • BSLChrisStoner, SportsGuy, BSLBobPhelan and 2 others like this

#46 Mackus

Mackus

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 55,601 posts

Posted 09 April 2019 - 08:29 PM

Very cool article. Good read.

#47 Mackus

Mackus

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 55,601 posts

Posted 09 April 2019 - 08:49 PM

First question:

You frequently mention the Baseball America rankings in your article. Is that just to give readers who don't follow the draft closely some context about the players being discussed or was the BA list a major resource for the team and had influence on the Rays board?

#48 SportsGuy

SportsGuy

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 91,979 posts
  • LocationBaltimore

Posted 09 April 2019 - 09:34 PM

Whats interesting to me is how uninteresting the process is.

And I am defining that by saying there was nothing about that article that surprised me, process wise. Its handled the way you would think it would be handled.

Good article. Nice to hear some inside insight on these things.

#49 BSLStephenCLoftus

BSLStephenCLoftus

    Orioles Analyst

  • Members
  • 59 posts

Posted 10 April 2019 - 06:20 AM

The Baseball America mentions were mostly a context thing, giving people an idea of the relative rankings of players. Can't discuss the internal rankings, but for the most part they were similar to BA.



#50 BSLChrisStoner

BSLChrisStoner

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 148,682 posts

Posted 12 April 2019 - 10:34 AM

MLBTR: 2019 Amateur Draft Pool Allocations

https://www.mlbtrade...llocations.html

 

 

Orioles: $13,821,300



#51 BSLChrisStoner

BSLChrisStoner

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 148,682 posts

Posted 12 April 2019 - 10:37 AM

In 31 games, Oregon State C Adley Rutschman is batting .426/.580/.842 with 12 HRs and 40 RBIs. He is 11-for-23 during his current six-game hitting streak with 4 HRs and 11 RBIs. Anybody know who has the No. 1 draft pick?



#52 Thirteen

Thirteen

    Rookie

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 505 posts

Posted 18 April 2019 - 07:43 AM

In 31 games, Oregon State C Adley Rutschman is batting .426/.580/.842 with 12 HRs and 40 RBIs. He is 11-for-23 during his current six-game hitting streak with 4 HRs and 11 RBIs. Anybody know who has the No. 1 draft pick?

 

Assuming the Orioles go for Rutschman, how soon do you think we'll see him in Baltimore?  Could it be argued that he'd be the #1 catcher in the system on June 3?



#53 Thirteen

Thirteen

    Rookie

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 505 posts

Posted 18 April 2019 - 07:56 AM

Damn, I was just looking at the draft order.  The D-backs have 7 of the first 75 picks....16 (regular pick), 26 (unsigned 2018 pick), 33 (compensation), 34 (compensation), 56 (regular pick), 74 (competitive balance), 75 (competitive balance - obtained by trade). 

 

Orioles have 4 of 79...1, 42, 71, 79

 

https://www.mlb.com/draft/order/2019



#54 Mackus

Mackus

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 55,601 posts

Posted 18 April 2019 - 08:02 AM

Orioles had 7 of the top 50 in 1999 and Brian Roberts at #50 is the only guy to have an MLB career, Bigbie the only other guy to have more than a cup of coffee.  

 

They did land Bedard in a later round that year.  Roberts and Bedard would be a pretty good haul from a typical draft class.  But typically you only have 1 or 2 picks in the top-50, not 7.

 

In '98 they had 3 of the top 51, none ever made the majors.

In '97 they had 3 of the top 36, Werth had a long career but was dumped by the O's for next to nothing, others just coffee.

In 

 

Other years have similar results, though usually with fewer picks.  Orioles drafting from Mike Mussina in 1990 until Nick Markakis in 2003 is really astounding in it's failure.  Hammonds, Werth, Hairston, Roberts, Bedard, and Jim Johnson are the only guys taken in those 14 years to have careers. 

 

I'd say the Orioles were worse at drafting during that decade and a half than Chris Davis is at baseball currently.  And Davis' contract is half as long as that drafting era.


  • You Play to Win the Game and dude like this

#55 BSLChrisStoner

BSLChrisStoner

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 148,682 posts

Posted 18 April 2019 - 11:00 AM

MASN: A look at the Orioles’ draft bonus pool and more

http://www.masnsport...l-and-more.html



#56 BSLChrisStoner

BSLChrisStoner

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 148,682 posts

Posted 18 April 2019 - 11:00 AM

Assuming the Orioles go for Rutschman, how soon do you think we'll see him in Baltimore?  Could it be argued that he'd be the #1 catcher in the system on June 3?


Late 2020, early 2021 would be my guess. Mid 2022 at the latest.



#57 SportsGuy

SportsGuy

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 91,979 posts
  • LocationBaltimore

Posted 18 April 2019 - 11:17 AM


Late 2020, early 2021 would be my guess. Mid 2022 at the latest.


If he’s not here by 2022, he probably has been hurt a lot or he sucks.

#58 Mackus

Mackus

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 55,601 posts

Posted 18 April 2019 - 11:39 AM

College hitters in the top 5 (or highest overall) from recent drafts debut date:

 

2018:  #2, #3, #4, #5 none in majors yet

2017: #4 (1B Brendan McKay) not in majors yet

2016: #2 (2B Nick Senzel), #5 (OF Cory Ray) not in majors yet

2015: #1 (SS Dansby Swanson) debuted 8/2016 , #2 Alex Bregman debuted 7/2016

2014: #4 (OF Kyle Schwarber) debuted 6/2015

2013: #2 (3B Kris Bryant) debuted 4/2015

2012: #3 (C Mike Zunino) debuted 6/2013

2011: #6 (2B Anthony Rendon) debuted 4/2013

2010: #4 (SS Christian Colon) debuted 7/2014

2009: #2 (CF Dustin Ackley) debuted 6/2011, #4 (C Tony Sanchez) debuted 6/2013

 

 

The good hitters seem to get there quickly.  By mid-2021 would be the hope.


  • Thirteen likes this

#59 Thirteen

Thirteen

    Rookie

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 505 posts

Posted 18 April 2019 - 12:15 PM

College hitters in the top 5 (or highest overall) from recent drafts debut date:

 

2018:  #2, #3, #4, #5 none in majors yet

2017: #4 (1B Brendan McKay) not in majors yet

2016: #2 (2B Nick Senzel), #5 (OF Cory Ray) not in majors yet

2015: #1 (SS Dansby Swanson) debuted 8/2016 , #2 Alex Bregman debuted 7/2016

2014: #4 (OF Kyle Schwarber) debuted 6/2015

2013: #2 (3B Kris Bryant) debuted 4/2015

2012: #3 (C Mike Zunino) debuted 6/2013

2011: #6 (2B Anthony Rendon) debuted 4/2013

2010: #4 (SS Christian Colon) debuted 7/2014

2009: #2 (CF Dustin Ackley) debuted 6/2011, #4 (C Tony Sanchez) debuted 6/2013

 

 

The good hitters seem to get there quickly.  By mid-2021 would be the hope.

 

Thanks.  Good info.



#60 SportsGuy

SportsGuy

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 91,979 posts
  • LocationBaltimore

Posted 23 April 2019 - 10:00 PM

BA:

 

Adley Rutschman's insane season for

. - Top draft prospect - .415/.576/.797 line - 13 homers - 51 walks to just 26 strikeouts.






0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users


Our Sponsors


 width=  width=