395 replies to this topic

[Mackus]

Why does anyone pitch to him?  Those are Barry Bonds numbers.

[BSLChrisStoner]

2080 Baseball: 2019 MLB DRAFT MOCK DRAFT (V1)

https://2080baseball...-mock-draft-v1/

[Mackus]

Can we un-ban birdwatcher just for the evening that the Orioles pass on Bobby Witt?

[BobPhelan]

If we take anyone other than Rutschmann at this point it will be the fulcrum of Elias' tenure in Baltimore.

[SportsGuy]

2080 Baseball: 2019 MLB DRAFT MOCK DRAFT (V1)
https://2080baseball...-mock-draft-v1/

I tweeted at Nick and asked him how Rustchman compares to recent #1 picks...His response:

Harper/Strasburg level no-brainer #1


He also said he has no reservations about taking a C #1.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Keith Law's mock draft is up.  I'm not an Insider, but luckily the O's pick first, so you can see part of his comment.  He's predicting Rutschman, with Vaughn a possibility.

 

I think the O's would take Rutschman or Andrew Vaughn, perhaps taking whichever of the two will sign for less and using the under-slot savings to go over with subsequent picks. It doesn't sound like the O's clearly prefer either player...

 

http://www.espn.com/...b-mock-draft-10

[JeremyStrain]

I tweeted at Nick and asked him how Rustchman compares to recent #1 picks...His response:

Harper/Strasburg level no-brainer #1


He also said he has no reservations about taking a C #1.

 

I've wondered if he sticks behind the plate or ends up moving. Could be a Joe Mauer thing, where it just catches up to him eventually, or a Jason Werth thing where it just never really works back there. Maybe he just stays there his whole career and I'm worried over nothing though. Who knows. Catchers are tricky.

 

The bat plays anywhere in the lineup though.

[SportsGuy]

Keith Law's mock draft is up.  I'm not in Insider, but luckily the O's pick first, so you can see part of his comment.  He's predicting Rutschman, with Vaughn a possibility.

 

 

http://www.espn.com/...b-mock-draft-10

Elias has passed on "best player on the board" in the past when picking high.  

[BSLChrisStoner]

CBS Sports: MLB Mock Draft 2019: Oregon State catcher heavy favorite to go No. 1 overall to Orioles
https://www.cbssport...all-to-orioles/

[Mike in STL]

Highly touted switch hitting catcher. The flashbacks make my stomach turn a little.

[Mackus]

Highly touted switch hitting catcher. The flashbacks make my stomach turn a little.

 

He feels like a disappointment based on the hype of not just his draft potential but the massive numbers he put up early on in the minors, but Wieters is in about the 70-75th percentile of top-10 or even top-5 picks.  He's got 18 career WAR, only 73 of the 300 guys taken in the top-10 and 43 of the 150 guys taken in the top-5 between 1980 and 2009 accumulated more for their career.

 

It'd be interesting to see the numbers for only guys who were the #1 overall rated prospect at any point and compare him to those peers.  My guess is he rates way lower among that crowd.

[FFH]

The O's would be stupid to not pick Rutschman 1st....but I don't think he's going to be the best player out of the draft when we look back on it in 10 years. 

If you look at Rutschman's video, the one thing that stands out to me is that his bat is slow, and his swing is inconsistent.  His results are undeniable, and I think you have to take him because he's rated so high.  I'm just concerned down the road that you see Wieters results, and not because he's a catcher. 

 

I think we will be talking about Hunter Bishop, the 6'4" 215 football player-level athlete.  He will only be 20 years old, and he's taken a little to develop, but he's young and massively projectable with a smooth balanced swing and the athleticism to play any of the other OF positions.  

He may need some work on approach and pitch recognition, but he has all of the other tools. Also, while his patience isn't at Rutschman's level at this point, he is at .354/.484/.794...pretty close to Rutschman with better tools. 

 

Vaughn also looks like he could kill a baseball with his swing.  When he rolls his wrists, he generates ridiculous bat speed through the zone.  The big thing, which might not be a big thing for him in reality, will be pitch recognition.  He will need to get those pitches in the right areas, and I think he could end up being a real zone hitter susceptible to pitches in areas he can't get his bat head around on. 

 

Witt shouldn't even get a second look from the O's at this point.  With the right player dev staff, he could be elite, but the O's aren't there right now, and he could take a lot of coaching to get him to a point where he's really ready for the bigs. He is clearly playing to please...they may like the enthusiasm, but I think he would press. 

[BobPhelan]

Good breakdown. The only thing that worries me about Bishop is his numbers have dropped since Pac 12 play started.

[FFH]

Good breakdown. The only thing that worries me about Bishop is his numbers have dropped since Pac 12 play started.

 

Thanks.

From what I've read, Elias has a preference for players that play elite competition.  I agree, he's probably going to take a hit thanks to his recent performance - and many observers could point to the classic statistics vs eye-test argument.  

[BSLSteveBirrer]

FFH

 

 I am quite confused over your post on the O's being stupid if they don't Rutschman? You say he isn't going to be the best player in the draft, you lay out why you think that is. Yet you say the O's are stupid if they don't take him. This makes no sense to me. If they O's have the same concerns as you point out then to me they would be stupid if they DID take him. 

 

Please explain.

[Nigel Tufnel]

If it's Rutchsmann against the field for best player, then it's likely to be someone from the field.  You can't draft the field, though.

[FFH]

FFH

 

 I am quite confused over your post on the O's being stupid if they don't Rutschman? You say he isn't going to be the best player in the draft, you lay out why you think that is. Yet you say the O's are stupid if they don't take him. This makes no sense to me. If they O's have the same concerns as you point out then to me they would be stupid if they DID take him. 

 

Please explain.

 

I thought I did. 

Rutschman, this minute, is the best player in the draft.  He has the performance on the national stage, at an elite level, and he can play multiple positions.  

My concerns are that he doesn't have a much higher ceiling - which means that he won't be the best player that comes out of the draft when all is said and done.  I am also of the belief that his swing is ideal for the metal bat, but that it may prove slow for the majors.  

Matt Wieters in this case is a great comp:

http://www.thebaseba...le.asp?ID=58790

 

Matt raked in college and the lower minors. He was a net positive for BB-Ks in both, but there was some regression moving to the minors from college. 

Then he went to AAA, and you can see the sudden flip in BB-K rate, something that probably coincided with the rise in quality of stuff he saw on a daily basis. 

Now we have almost 11 years of ML data, and he has a career 8%-18% K-BB ratio.  

So, you get a good but not great player that burns out after 6-7 seasons. 

 

However - this is where I think the O's would be stupid to draft anyone besides Rutschman.  I don't believe the O's have fixed their minors yet....and by that I mean that I don't think the player dev methodology is in place yet....just an observation.  That means it would be a bad idea to go after a high school guy, because you could end up screwing him up. 

On top of that, the best high schoolers are going to take some time to get to the majors, at least the ones you see in this draft.  I'm not going to go through any more of them because there isn't really any point, but Abrams and some of the other guys look like little kids.  There are no 19 year-old phenoms in this class. 

In addition, all of the other college guys are a bit raw.  They have talent and they will be young, but we probably wouldn't see them for another 3-4 years.  Rutschman has enough polish that we could see him in 2 years, and I think he has a high floor.  The real question will be whether or not he sticks at C.  He has high ratings....but so did Matt. 

Hope that long-winded post answers the question.  

[BSLSteveBirrer]

I fully get your points. End point still makes no sense.

 

1. IF his swing it thought to be slow for the majors then I am not drafting him. His college (metal bat) stats are less attractive. Not saying I think this is the case its just you point out what could be a serious flaw then take him anyway.

2. I agree that he could make it to the majors quicker than others but I don't think this is a factor anyway. We aren't going to be good next year and maybe the year after that. So others arriving a year or two later may in some respects (service time) be a benefit.

3. You make a good case that Bishop or Vaughn may be better choices.

4. Disagree on Witt and coaching. If if I was in the front office and had that viewpoint I would draft Witt and change my staff.

 

All makes for good banter but at this point I think the O's take the kid. I just wish he played a position besides C.

[Mackus]

End point makes perfect sense.  He's balancing floor and ceiling.  It's incredibly rare that a single guy represents both the highest floor and the highest ceiling, so you always have to balance between risk and reward.  

 

I'm no scout, but I'm not sure I agree that there is anyone else with a higher ceiling than Rutschmann in the draft.  A high impact bat at the catcher position is incredibly valuable.  If he hits that ceiling, it'll take a HOF caliber career to out-ceiling him.

[JeremyStrain]

End point makes perfect sense.  He's balancing floor and ceiling.  It's incredibly rare that a single guy represents both the highest floor and the highest ceiling, so you always have to balance between risk and reward.  

 

I'm no scout, but I'm not sure I agree that there is anyone else with a higher ceiling than Rutschmann in the draft.  A high impact bat at the catcher position is incredibly valuable.  If he hits that ceiling, it'll take a HOF caliber career to out-ceiling him.

 

My one ... I don't even want to call it an issue with him, cause it's really not, it's just a preference about college C in general, is that if he had to move to say 1B would his profile still be as stellar? In this case, yeah, I think his bat would play just fine if he ended up being a 1B. If he plays C, there's the bumps and bruises and the extra days off argument, but how many players play 162 games these days anyway?

 

The bat is Harper level special. And lets not forget at one point Harper was a C too. Say we draft him and move him to RF, and have our own Bryce...just you know, without all the uh...personality quirks, would anyone complain?