141 replies to this topic

[SportsGuy]

So, if it was mid June and he was still struggling vs righties and was providing next to nothing on offense, you guys think it would have been a poor idea to cut him at that time?

 

His OPS for the month of May was under 600.  His OPS, overall, entering June was 676. 

 

And here is what I said in my article from late May:

 

Pedro Alvarez:

The conventional wisdom is that he will start to hit righties and all will be well with him. After all, his worst OPS vs. righties since 2012 is 770. You figure that he will be fine, hit them at a solid enough level for a platoon and give you a lot of power at the bottom of the lineup. But what if he doesn’t? Currently, his OPS vs. righties is 678. He has 2 homers, 6 doubles and has walked 13 times. The walks are nice but the rest isn’t going to cut it. He can’t help you vs. lefties, he’s slow and his defense isn’t good. In other words, if he isn’t hitting righties, especially with power, he is worthless to the team. He has 6 hits this month. SIX! The question is what would you replace him with? Well, Christian Walker and Trey Mancini are currently struggling a bit in AAA. Still, they could potentially be options for you. Also, this team does need to make a move for a legit corner OFer IMO. That is also something that could happen, as a way to replace him. I don’t think Alvarez should be cut tomorrow but I am only willing to give another few weeks before I start to think he needs to be DFA.

That's the big number.  If that had continued and he didn't hit, you guys (the same schizos who cry every day for this guy or that guy to be traded or released because he goes 0-4) would have said to keep putting him out there?

[RShack]

So, if it was mid June and he was still struggling vs righties and was providing next to nothing on offense, you guys think it would have been a poor idea to cut him at that time?

 

I think nobody is as constantly interested in roster changes as you are... it's a personal trait... not saying that's good or bad, just saying it is what it is... how much the situation demands roster changes is secondary, they're one of your favorite things regardless... that's why you reach out into the future to find justifications for them...

[You Play to Win the Game]

Rob, the thing is, given his track record and coming to a new league and a new role (DH), no one here except you thought that would continue. But HedgeGuy makes sure there's never a possibility where he's wrong.

[SportsGuy]

Rob, the thing is, given his track record and coming to a new league and a new role (DH), no one here except you thought that would continue. But HedgeGuy makes sure there's never a possibility where he's wrong.

Ok..this is fucking stupid. Clearly I agree since I wasn't calling for him to be cut right then.

So, we aren't supposed to discuss what if scenarios? GTFO.

Just answer this...if he had continued to suck for another several weeks, would you have been happy to continue to put him out there?

[You Play to Win the Game]

It'd be nice to see you take a stance without all the hedging, but I know that won't happen.

 

To answer your question, he wasn't getting cut as early as June, and probably not at all. And if he had been a complete zero and gotten cut eventually, what difference does that make? That's like saying if you no called, no showed 8 or 9 straight days you're getting fired. I mean, no shit Sherlock.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Alvarez has a track record. There was little to no reason to doubt that track record, especially in the context of platooning. Absent any other analysis (which there wasn't), the point was fairly inane.

[SportsGuy]

Alvarez has a track record. There was little to no reason to doubt that track record, especially in the context of platooning. Absent any other analysis (which there wasn't), the point was fairly inane.

Guys have bad years. Had his continued, he was definitely a DFA candidate.

[bnickle]

Alvarez has a track record. There was little to no reason to doubt that track record, especially in the context of platooning. Absent any other analysis (which there wasn't), the point was fairly inane.

Right and Rob threw out the first seeds of a potential cut as early as April.

[SportsGuy]

Right and Rob threw out the first seeds of a potential cut as early as April.

So what? I also said I felt he would turn it around.

Again, there's a prediction and a discussion. Prediction would have been, he's going to turn it around.

Discussion is, what if he doesn't.

Wtf is wrong with you guys? This happens every day on here.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Guys have bad years. Had his continued, he was definitely a DFA candidate.

Did he look bad Rob? Did he have a track record as a slow starter? Didn't he get off to a late start in ST? Did we have other viable options? Was there any real reason to think he wouldn't be at least ok considering his track record and how he'd be used/platooned? You were even wrong about the money he was making. Seriously, the only thing more inane than your original empty analysis is coming back and trying to defend it as "100% spot on".  You should probably just move on here. 

[SportsGuy]

Did he look bad Rob? Did he have a track record as a slow starter? Didn't he get off to a late start in ST? Did we have other viable options? Was there any real reason to think he wouldn't be at least ok considering his track record and how he'd be used/platooned? You were even wrong about the money he was making. Seriously, the only thing more inane than your original empty analysis is coming back and trying to defend it as "100% spot on". You should probably just move on here.

So, just so we are on the same page. You have never brought up the possibility of someone being cut, in any sport, because their performance had been terrible even with a good track record?

[SportsGuy]

Oh and yes, he did look terrible. He had like 10 hits in the entire month of May.

It's not like he was smashing line drives all over the place and was just unlucky. He also wasn't showing hardly any power at that point either.

He was walking though.

[SportsGuy]

De Aza brought more to the team than Alvarez does and the Os cut him quickly last year.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Oh and yes, he did look terrible. He had like 10 hits in the entire month of May.

It's not like he was smashing line drives all over the place and was just unlucky. He also wasn't showing hardly any power at that point either.

He was walking though.

Well, this is the analysis you should have brought up at the time if you really wanted to present a discussion/analysis and be taken more seriously. I'd have disagreed with it then because Alvarez was having patient AB's, taking walks, hitting into some bad luck/shifts and wasn't putting enough balls in the air (among other factors (etc.) Unfortunately when you were asked to provide analysis (I asked you several times myself) you provided nothing of any substance other than he could just suck. 

[You Play to Win the Game]

Right, and there was no understanding that he switched leagues, and switched to DH, which many big leaguers say is tougher than people realize. Bottom line, he was alone in that stance, but because it was a "well, he might turn it around and not get cut" he's not "wrong". Well, as Buck likes to say, you can be right and still be wrong. Rob just has it out for middling talent like Alvarez and immediately assumed he was a bust signing, IMO.

[CA-ORIOLE]

So, just so we are on the same page. You have never brought up the possibility of someone being cut, in any sport, because their performance had been terrible even with a good track record?

It's ok to say stuff like that. We all do it as you said. Every comment doesn't have to have a spreadsheet behind it. That said, most of us don't dig in to defend it as meaningful and 100% spot on analysis either. You probably are taking a bit too much crap, but then again you kinda ask for it imo. I'm impressed that you've changed a lot from OH, but then again you are who you are. 

 

Anyways feel free to have the last word Rob. I'm done on this one. Looking forward  to more constructive discussions. 

[SportsGuy]

Well, this is the analysis you should have brought up at the time if you really wanted to present a discussion/analysis and be taken more seriously. I'd have disagreed with it then because Alvarez was having patient AB's, taking walks, hitting into some bad luck/shifts and wasn't putting enough balls in the air (among other factors (etc.) Unfortunately when you were asked to provide analysis (I asked you several times myself) you provided nothing of any substance other than he could just suck.

I did bring it up.

[Pedro Cerrano]

Baseball talk on the internet.

 

Everyone deep breaths.

 

Cool.

[SportsGuy]

You didn't point out any issues Alvarez was having. You pointed out he wasn't hitting well and if he didn't start to hit well he'd likely be DFA'd soon (which probably wasn't even close to being true in itself). The equivalent of this would have been me saying "Britton is struggling a bit lately. He better get better or he won't be as good as he's been." It's fucking meaningless. It doesn't matter that you disagree with what I said, or don't see my analysis as meaningful.

So performance is meaningless?

This is a guy who, in recent years, wasn't exactly dominating righties. His OPS was usually in the high 700s and while that's good, it's not jaw dropping good.

It's like Pearce vs lefties this year numbers.

So, the analysis was simple:

1) Alvarez can't play defense
2) He provides zero value on the bases
3) He can't hit lefties.
4) He was struggling against righties to the tune of a sub 700 OPS.

So, with 1-3 not debateable (at least intelligently), he had to improve on #4 to justify being on the team.

If he continued to NOT give us #4, as he had for the first 2 months of the season, you are telling me that it was unreasonable to say that he was a DFA candidate?

No, I didn't break down his swing. I'm not going to do that and quite frankly, I don't even find that necessary. If that's what you wanted, so be it but since I have never seen you do anything like that, I think you would be off base.

So yes, I brought it up as a discussion point while also fully acknowledging that he deserves more of a chance based on that track record.

What is incorrect about any of that?

[BobPhelan]

Hit his 14th homerun. Always has to turn it around and make it about himself again...