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#41 JeffLong

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Posted 30 June 2012 - 06:26 PM

But the Orioles aren't making moves for value in 2016. They're trying to win a championship now.

We are so used to being in rebuilding and developmental mode that we're missing the point this season. The point is to win a championship! It's a total 360 from the last 14 seasons.

That's not to say you trade Arrieta for a 2 month rental because you don't. But the two guys they gave up? It's not a big deal at all.


Again, it's not about these players in particular but the process as a whole. You're receiving a marginal upgrade in Thome for 2 guys who could become huge values in the future (given how little players are compensated for their pre-arb years).

This result isn't necessarily flawed - the process is.

EDIT:

I should clarify - this trade isn't the end of the world. I think we gave up too much but I don't hate it. It definitely doesn't kill us. However if we keep making deals like this, we're just giving away value; something that anyone can tell you is a dumb idea.
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#42 PD24

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Posted 30 June 2012 - 06:30 PM

Again, it's not about these players in particular but the process as a whole. You're receiving a marginal upgrade in Thome for 2 guys who could become huge values in the future (given how little players are compensated for their pre-arb years).

This result isn't necessarily flawed - the process is.


So how do you expect this team to ever make a trade to get better?

Again, in 2008, I'd be totally on board with what you're saying.

But this team is trying to win!

And huge values? Really? Come on. There's a better chance neither of those players ever play a full year in the majors than both of them.
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#43 JTrea81

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Posted 30 June 2012 - 06:31 PM

Again, it's not about these players in particular but the process as a whole. You're receiving a marginal upgrade in Thome for 2 guys who could become huge values in the future (given how little players are compensated for their pre-arb years).

This result isn't necessarily flawed - the process is.


Thome could be more than a marginal upgrade however.

Right now the Orioles have got 0.7 fWAR from the DH position, and 0.5 of that is Chris Davis who will likely move back to 1B full time when Markakis is healthy.

The odd man out in this whole thing is Mark Reynolds who Thome is better than right now.

#44 BobPhelan

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Posted 30 June 2012 - 06:34 PM

I don't care about losing Lino or Simon. They're okay, low level prospects. They most likely will never make the majors, and if they do, will contribute minimally.

People that get up in arms about this kind of stuff confuse me. An excuse to complain, maybe.


I wouldn't say I'm up in arms but just confused that it took so much. Seems like something MacPhail would've sat on for another couple weeks until he got his price. Different philosophies.

Regardless I think we can all agree we need more than Thome. This should lead to more trades.

#45 JeffLong

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Posted 30 June 2012 - 06:35 PM

So how do you expect this team to ever make a trade to get better?

Again, in 2008, I'd be totally on board with what you're saying.

But this team is trying to win!

And huge values? Really? Come on. There's a better chance neither of those players ever play a full year in the majors than both of them.


Let me give you an example using a star to give really big interesting numbers:

Matt Wieters was paid $452,250 last season. He provided $22.4 million in value.

Prospects, even mediocre ones can provide unbelievable returns on the money that is paid to them. Obviously, these guys likely won't create the value that Wieters has, but it's not hard to provide $400,000 in value.
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#46 bnickle

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Posted 30 June 2012 - 06:37 PM

Yeah, I mean you have to like that the O's are making a move to help the big league team in a year they are contending heading into July for only the 2nd time in 14 years. And again, it's the definition of a minor move. Thome can put up an .800 OPS in his sleep. He'll get on base( the biggest problem offensively with this team) and slug. He's gonna slide right in and be a solid middle of the order hitter.

#47 SportsGuy

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Posted 30 June 2012 - 06:47 PM

Just an awful trade.

These are the types of players you add to bigger deals to get it done. You don't trade them for old DHs. We already have a poorly constructed roster and now Thome just adds to that.

#48 SportsGuy

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Posted 30 June 2012 - 06:55 PM

I'm going to take back the words awful trade and just say that I don't think this is a trade we should have made.

I just hope Thome can hit homers and get on base.

#49 JeremyStrain

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Posted 30 June 2012 - 07:00 PM

Can only hope Duquette's scouts are way down on these guys and are selling high... Duquette obviously isn't scared of trading mid level prospects for spare parts.


What scouts? Those are the guys he reassigned.

Terrible trade. As mentioned, its fine to pretend you have a shot at winning...which currently they don't.

Ask yourself, coming into the season did you think they were the overachieving team you saw for a couple months or the team that can't do much right like you have seen recently? That was rhetorical BTW, its the latter.

Just too much to give up for a rental over 40 role player. He might be an upgrade over betemit or Reynolds at DH, but they aren't the guys being replaced. I don't mind much about Simon, he was a mid rp at best anyway, but Lino I don't like at all, not for thome.
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#50 BobPhelan

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Posted 30 June 2012 - 07:01 PM

One thing I did like was Duquette on the post game show saying something along the lines of "hopefully we can sign plenty of guys to replace them." Good sign for IFA?

#51 BobPhelan

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Posted 30 June 2012 - 07:04 PM

What scouts? Those are the guys he reassigned.

Terrible trade. As mentioned, its fine to pretend you have a shot at winning...which currently they don't.

Ask yourself, coming into the season did you think they were the overachieving team you saw for a couple months or the team that can't do much right like you have seen recently? That was rhetorical BTW, its the latter.

Just too much to give up for a rental over 40 role player. He might be an upgrade over betemit or Reynolds at DH, but they aren't the guys being replaced. I don't mind much about Simon, he was a mid rp at best anyway, but Lino I don't like at all, not for thome.


Trying to talk myself down because I was pretty surprised/disappointed when I heard who we were giving up haha. Maybe they suspect Lino is older than he says and has bad makeup. I still think its too much. Hoping this means Reynolds is dealt for a starter. Dempster? If we're going to contend we need more pieces than Thome.

#52 SammyBirdland

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Posted 30 June 2012 - 07:11 PM

If we don't get some good starting pitching, none of this really matters.
¡Hasta la vista, pelota!

#53 SportsGuy

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Posted 30 June 2012 - 07:13 PM

Will they put Reynolds back at third? Davis in LF?

This trade doesn't help if either Davis or Reynolds are out of the lineup when Thome is in it.

He hasn't had a ton of at bats vs lefties in recent years but he has either been good enough up to very good vs lefties.

So basically, he should be the everyday DH.

When Nick is back....

BRob- 2nd
Markakis-RF
Wieters-C
Thome- DH
Jones- CF
Hardy-SS
Davis- 1st
Reynolds-3rd
Avery- LF

#54 JTrea81

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Posted 30 June 2012 - 07:21 PM

Will they put Reynolds back at third? Davis in LF?

This trade doesn't help if either Davis or Reynolds are out of the lineup when Thome is in it.

He hasn't had a ton of at bats vs lefties in recent years but he has either been good enough up to very good vs lefties.

So basically, he should be the everyday DH.

When Nick is back....

BRob- 2nd
Markakis-RF
Wieters-C
Thome- DH
Jones- CF
Hardy-SS
Davis- 1st
Reynolds-3rd
Avery- LF


Got a feeling the Orioles will try to move Reynolds. He isn't allowed to play 3B, and the Orioles won't bench Davis.

Flaherty could be part of a Garza deal so that would get him off the bench. Johnson will probably be DFA'd as he's redundant with Thome.

#55 JeremyStrain

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Posted 30 June 2012 - 07:21 PM

Trying to talk myself down because I was pretty surprised/disappointed when I heard who we were giving up haha. Maybe they suspect Lino is older than he says and has bad makeup. I still think its too much. Hoping this means Reynolds is dealt for a starter. Dempster? If we're going to contend we need more pieces than Thome.


Yeah that's kinda my thing, this is fine if its the 4th move we made, but its no where near enough. I think Lino as a young catcher had more value than this deal suggests, positional scarcity and all.

Reynolds has little to no value right now, so now you have a log jam and two viable sp.
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#56 SammyBirdland

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Posted 30 June 2012 - 07:25 PM

Davis in LF?


Duquette made reference to liking Davis in the outfield during the interview today.
¡Hasta la vista, pelota!

#57 DBean

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Posted 30 June 2012 - 07:36 PM

Not sure if the Orioles gave up too much to get him, but I like the move. Don't know when will be the next time that the Orioles will be in playoff contention, so they should take advantage of it while they can. At worst, Thome can provide leadership and veteran experience to the team.
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#58 SportsGuy

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Posted 30 June 2012 - 07:40 PM

Is this team really in playoff contention though?

I mean, by the numbers right now we are but how much does that mean?

#59 DJ MC

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Posted 30 June 2012 - 07:53 PM

Here is the thing with this trade.

Simon doesn't mean much to me. I had never heard of him before today--probably not literally, but his name never stood out in any meaningful way. He's a guy who looked good as a reliever last year, and mediocre as a starter this year. Kevin Goldstein's quick take on Twitter suggested a guy whose likely ceiling is a decent reliever (how I read it), and at 22 in high-A that kind of arm is replaceable.

Lino is a bit harder to swallow, but I have to wonder how much we as Orioles fans are overrating him. He is essentially the first international offensive prospect--along with Scoop--to show real promise. But he's 19 and struggling in low-A.

Neither player is likely a contributor in the majors for the next three or four years, and neither would become more than an extra part in a bigger deal for at least a year or two. They aren't players you throw away, but they are the kind of players you trade to help your team.

If you take away his pinch-hitting appearances this year, Thome is batting .304/.407/.609 with four homers over 54 PAs. Now that is a small sample size, and his 17 appearances as a pinch hitter drag his numbers down a lot, but with his track record and with regular plate appearances I think he can still get the job done and help this team.

Right now, the team isn't hitting and needs someone else who can help. When they start hitting again, he can only make the team even better.

I like the deal. We did not give up much, and received a player who can be very helpful on at least one side of the ball. For a team with a real opportunity to make a run, even if they only end up over the .500 hump, this is right move to make.

#60 DJ MC

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Posted 30 June 2012 - 07:59 PM

Is this team really in playoff contention though?

I mean, by the numbers right now we are but how much does that mean?


That's like saying, "Well, yeah, the 2006 Cardinals DID win the World Series, but they weren't really that good a team and were under .500 the following season." It doesn't matter because they won.

Right now, the Orioles are 42-35, in second place in the division and in the second wild-card spot. They may be on a down stretch right now, but they could pull out of it despite our most fatalistic fears as fans.

Maybe they aren't a playoff team. Maybe they follow the Indians and Pirates from last year, and the 2005 Orioles and go on a nosedive after the All-Star Break. I posted earlier about the Orioles recent records in July, and they do not look good. But the only way we will know is after the fact, in late August after a collapse, in early September after a fade, or maybe in late September after holding on to win.

This isn't a team that should be giving up high-level, advanced talent for rental help. But two decent prospects years away for a Hall of Famer with gas in his tank, absolutely.




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