331 replies to this topic

[Mackus]

I don't know any of these guys beyond resumes and a quick google search.  But with the assumption we all seem to be making in this hypothetical that Means has a huge first half, I'd be incredulous if that's the return for him.  Yet alone throwing in Scott who is more valuable than at least the last two Mets guys.  Hell, McKenna probably is more valuable than those two pitchers.

 

That's one guy in the middle of the top-100, one other guy in the Mets top-10, and two guys outside their top-20.  

 

Calling Scott & McKenna equal to the last 3 guys, you're basically dealing Means for a single middle top-100 guy and a lot of salary relief.  I'm not putting any value in getting Davis' salary covered.  I know the Orioles will, and $17M is worth at least a back-end top-10 guy if not a bit more, its significant.  But I'd be furious, just like I've been furious that they prioritized saving money over bringing back talent in almost all the other trades going back to 2018.

[dude]

[Analysis of trade]

 

I think this is the challenge of many trades like this.  You really don't have the Team to matchup with that includes "2 top 50 guys" or whatever your perceived value of the best player is.  We did this with Machado over and over.  Rob always did this (my intention is not to talk about him, but his approach) in terms of trying to develop some generic trade value based on top100 guys.  

 

You still have to have a team A) with need and B) with those type players and C) most importantly, a willingness to trade them.

 

Every team would say they want John Means, like every team would want Manny, but that doesn't mean there's a bunch of teams waiting to overpay with the valuation you want.

 

For example, the Phillies might be a team that would consider ramping up some, but who would you want from them?  They lack quality upper guys you'd care about.  If you got Stott and Bohm and moved Davis....I'd rather have the Mets top guys.

 

Instead of looking at it from a top prospect valuation where you likely can't find a match, the endstate of that hypothetical trade would be...

1) Orioles drop big salary (not important to us, but important to the Angeloses)

2) the Orioles likely get pushed to the #1 MiL system (important to Elias)

3) the Orioles have a SS and 3B that they'll need to play in 2022 giving them justification for staying out of the 2022 market. (again, Angelos)

 

ML salary at a bare minimum, top farm system and credit for building the pipeline....would be the marketing angle 

[BSLChrisStoner]

4/25: 6.1 ip, 2 hits, 1 er, 3 bb's, 6 k's, 1 hr 

 

2-0, 1.50 era

[TwentyThirtyFive]

We'll see how much the HRs and BBs hurt him as the season progresses but he's legit.

[Mike B]

Means seems to be getting better each time out

[Pedro Cerrano]

Wonder who he gets traded to

[Mike B]

How Means is dealt with, will answer a lot of questions for me, about whether this version of the Oriole ownership and front office can be trusted.

[NewMarketSean]

As good as he can be he is not someone I trust being good over the life of whatever contract he’d get when he’s a FA. I don’t even know if he’d be worth the arbitration. 
 

I wouldn’t be opposed to trading him but the return better pay off. 

[Nigel Tufnel]

Yeah, trading Bedard turned out to be great deal for the O's.  The trick is figuring out how to duplicate that with Means.  The stars kind of aligned with Bedard - you had a team with two really good ML-ready prospects who felt like they were just a Bedard away from the World Series.

[BSLChrisStoner]

First 10 minutes of the last episode of The Warehouse was on Means... give a listen. 

 

https://anchor.fm/th...isode-34-evfl1f

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Here is the thing about Means. He's 28 and he is under team control through '24. So really nothing needs to be done for awhile and at 32 yrs old you wouldn't want more than another 3 yrs anyway. It'll be interesting how he's handled. I still think Elias holds onto him for a good while. Definitely through this season unless he's absolutely blown away by a deal.

[BSLChrisStoner]

5/5: 9ip, 0 hits, 0 er, 0 bb's, 12 k's.... 

 

A no-no for Means! 

 

Only thing that prevented the perfect game was a runner reaching on a 3rd strike. 

 

ERA drops to 1.37!

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Thats gonna be a really good game score

[BobPhelan]

5/5: 9ip, 0 hits, 0 er, 0 bb's, 12 k's.... 

 

A no-no for Means! 

 

Only thing that prevented the perfect game was a runner reaching on a 3rd strike. 

 

ERA drops to 1.37!

 

0.67 WHIP...

[You Play to Win the Game]

The Show is gonna need to update his rating.

[Mike B]

0.67 WHIP...

The Orioles are a good team when John Means pitches!

[TwentyThirtyFive]

The Show is gonna need to update his rating.

Haha. Yup. He'll get a special card to use in DD. That'll be fun.

[BSLChrisStoner]

FanGraphs: John Means Tested the Limits of What a No-Hitter Could Be

[Old Man]

Yeah, trading Bedard turned out to be great deal for the O's.  The trick is figuring out how to duplicate that with Means.  The stars kind of aligned with Bedard - you had a team with two really good ML-ready prospects who felt like they were just a Bedard away from the World Series.

I remember many fans here, not happy with the Bedard trade occurred, they felt kicked in the gut, a lot like Mussina or Manny leaving. They felt at the time, that the Orioles were swindled for a player of his caliber. Of course, hindsight is 20/20.

[You Play to Win the Game]

I remember many fans here, not happy with the Bedard trade occurred, they felt kicked in the gut, a lot like Mussina or Manny leaving. They felt at the time, that the Orioles were swindled for a player of his caliber. Of course, hindsight is 20/20.

That trade is the biggest reason besides Buck for the 2012-2016 run. But I understand that sentiment. I hope we don't trade Means, even though it's probably the wise thing to do.