HOF
Posted 02 May 2013 - 01:10 PM
When I clicked on this thread to see the latest post, it took me to the first page for some reason. I decided to read through the first few pages in any event, just to see folks thoughts when we brought him in. It was fun. Good stuff.
Yeah I've had the same "problem." The discussions from the previous format were all unread I think when the switchover happened. It's fun reading back on the predictions with these things.
Posted 08 May 2013 - 06:07 PM
http://baltimorespor...ths-fast-start/
Considering his improved approach at the plate, should he start getting time versus lefties?
HOF
Posted 08 May 2013 - 06:57 PM
HOF
Posted 08 May 2013 - 08:33 PM
Check this out: http://www.fangraphs...w-nate-mclouth/
A summary basically is that Nate has pretty much stopped swinging at low balls, especially low/away balls.
I don't think I'd start him against tougher lefties, but I might put him in there against scrubs and see if he does anything.
He'll still get at least 550 PA, so I wouldn't be complaining too much if I were him.
Owner
Posted 09 May 2013 - 07:25 AM
Enjoyed this read from Kevin.
I agree with Hallas, that I would not play him against the tougher lefties. As Kevin wrote this Winter in the McLouth preview, he's never hit lefties well his his 700+ career ab's.
If Machado is the funnest Oriole to watch play on a daily basis, I would expect McLouth would get some 2nd place votes.
Have to love the 17 bb's vs. 11 k's, the .400 obp, the 11 steals (1 cs). I thought his weak arm might be an issue, but it hasn't been to date. (His UZR/150 is still negative, but that figures to change. His play in left has been quality.)
For a guy that was an All-Star, that went through a couple of years of injuries/non-performance.... getting this opportunity, and taking advantage of it has to be extremely rewarding. I'd love to see him keep this up, and force his way back to another All-Star team.
He has 11 xbh’s in his 103 ab’s. He is murdering RH pitching. His play has been so strong, that I’m beginning to think the O’s should be approaching him about extending him through ’14 now. If he regresses, and he looks more like a 4th OF, so be it. If he performs like an All-Star all year, he is going to be that much more expensive, and that much harder to replace should you lose him.
Posted 09 May 2013 - 07:41 AM
I just wonder if the extreme plate discipline and contact numbers will maintain at their incredible levels if he was exposed to lefties as well. If he has made a conscious change to his approach, there is a chance that they might. If those two things carried over, he has a better chance at success versus lefties than he's had in the past. When he wasn't as selective and didn't make as much contact.
HOF
Posted 09 May 2013 - 07:44 AM
I just wonder if the extreme plate discipline and contact numbers will maintain at their incredible levels if he was exposed to lefties as well. If he has made a conscious change to his approach, there is a chance that they might. If those two things carried over, he has a better chance at success versus lefties than he's had in the past. When he wasn't as selective and didn't make as much contact.
Low and away is usually a pitch that lefties get other lefties out on. If Nate is going to lay off that pitch, he will be in good shape.
I suspect that a lot of this hot start is because he isn't playing against many lefties. So now, you should start him against the occasional lefty and see what he can do.
Owner
Posted 10 May 2013 - 02:31 PM
His play has been so strong, that I’m beginning to think the O’s should be approaching him about extending him through ’14 now. If he regresses, and he looks more like a 4th OF, so be it. If he performs like an All-Star all year, he is going to be that much more expensive, and that much harder to replace should you lose him.
Thoughts here? Would you be interested in offering him a 1 year extension now?
HOF
Posted 10 May 2013 - 02:35 PM
Thoughts here? Would you be interested in offering him a 1 year extension now?
Definitely - but I'm not so sure that he would.
Posted 10 May 2013 - 03:06 PM
Thoughts here? Would you be interested in offering him a 1 year extension now?
No way I think he inks a deal before the end of the year. His contract for 2013 is about resetting his value for a big payday in 2014. If I were him, I would have no problem with Buck sitting me against lefties - ehy make it harder to get paid?
I'm not saying this is ALL he cares about, but it has to factor.
HOF
Posted 10 May 2013 - 03:16 PM
Thoughts here? Would you be interested in offering him a 1 year extension now?
HOF
Posted 10 May 2013 - 03:17 PM
No way I think he inks a deal before the end of the year. His contract for 2013 is about resetting his value for a big payday in 2014. If I were him, I would have no problem with Buck sitting me against lefties - ehy make it harder to get paid?
I'm not saying this is ALL he cares about, but it has to factor.
MVP
Posted 11 May 2013 - 12:57 AM
Gomes got what a 2/10 contract from Boston? If McLouth continues to play well he also has an All Star appearance and a Gold Glove for his agent to bring up in negotiations from his past. He could easily get more than Gomes if he keeps playing well.
Owner
Posted 11 May 2013 - 07:57 AM
He also just went through a 3 yr odyessy, of injuries and non-performance. He was just available to everyone on the open market and got 1 yr $2m. If the O's offer 1 yr $6m now, with an option, I think he would be tempted to say yes.
Of course I agree he could roll the dice, believe he will finish very strong, and get back to the open market. At this point he knows he will get a deal somewhere. Just how much and how long a deal?
HOF
Posted 11 May 2013 - 08:07 AM
He also just went through a 3 yr odyessy, of injuries and non-performance. He was just available to everyone on the open market and got 1 yr $2m. If the O's offer 1 yr $6m now, with an option, I think he would be tempted to say yes.
Of course I agree he could roll the dice, believe he will finish very strong, and get back to the open market. At this point he knows he will get a deal somewhere. Just how much and how long a deal?
He also isn't going to cost a team a draft pick either.
I would say something in the area 3/21-30 is possible if he ends up with a 350+ OBP, 30+ SBs, good defense and say 40+ XBH.
Those are good lead off man numbers.
HOF
Posted 11 May 2013 - 08:12 AM
Gomes got what a 2/10 contract from Boston? If McLouth continues to play well he also has an All Star appearance and a Gold Glove for his agent to bring up in negotiations from his past. He could easily get more than Gomes if he keeps playing well.
Yep, good example. Although Gomes is the smaller half of a platoon, as a lefty-masher instead of a guy who hits righties like Nate. Even if he's just a platoon guy, a good-fielding leadoff type with speed who can play 70% of your games will fetch a decent amount. Some team may even convince themselves that he could play CF. If he continues to play well, he'll be somewhere between Gomes and the contract parameters that SG outlined, probably closer to the high side.
Owner
Posted 11 May 2013 - 08:17 AM
HOF
Posted 11 May 2013 - 08:38 AM
If the Os believe he will continue to perform, why not offer 2 guranteed years now? You want to make an offer which would be tough to turn down, and could save you $ overall.
HOF
Posted 11 May 2013 - 08:56 AM
If Nate turns into a 4 WAR guy, it would certainly be nice to have him signed up to a inexpensive 2-3 year deal.
On the other hand, even with a big year, he's not a guy that's signing a really long term deal or for really significant dollars. At most something like 3/$30M. Signing him to a 2/$14M deal right now would get some extra value than needing to give him more money at the end of the year, but it's not the potential windfall that an extension for someone like Manny could end up being.
Owner
Posted 11 May 2013 - 09:16 AM
If Nate turns into a 4 WAR guy, it would certainly be nice to have him signed up to a inexpensive 2-3 year deal.
On the other hand, even with a big year, he's not a guy that's signing a really long term deal or for really significant dollars. At most something like 3/$30M. Signing him to a 2/$14M deal right now would get some extra value than needing to give him more money at the end of the year, but it's not the potential windfall that an extension for someone like Manny could end up being.
Still being a benefit is the key.
Since McLouth had the 3 previous years of injuries and non-production, the baseball world didn't buy into him when he hit the market this past winter. If he continues to produce, I agree with what you, and SG, and VM said above as realistic contract wise.
I think there is a decent % chance that McLouth would want to play the rest of this year out, and see if he could fully cash in on the highest end parameters outlined above.
I also think there is a decent % chance, that McLouth would look at an extension offer today fairly favorably. He would know there is a risk of injury or non-performance going forward the rest of the year. Turning down a raise, and guaranteed dollars would be a risk.
Getting back to SG's post above, you could argue that offering him any deal right now is a risk. A 2 yr $14M offer from the O's would obviously represent some risk. It's reasonable enough though, that even if he again becomes a guy you would prefer only as a 4th OF, that you could live with the deal.
As you mentioned you could also get some excess value out of the deal, and you would also know you have another option for LF (and leadoff) under team control. That also has value.
I would hate to see McLouth finish very strong this year, hit the open market, and the O's feeling obligated to go to the higher ends of what the market will allow.
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