185 replies to this topic

[JeremyStrain]

I just don't get what happened to the steals. He's still getting on base he's just not running.

 
This team has great power but terrible OBP.  Not stealing is the right decision and I bet that edict came down from Buck.  Aside from specific situations where you really need one run or perhaps when there are 2 outs and the hitter is down in the count so the risk is lower, I don't think Nate should be running very often, even though his success rate is high.

Might just be coincidence but early in the year when he was running all the time was the best our offense has been all year. Not to mention the individual players were doing much better. Chicken or the egg though.

[Matt]

Interesting point, I never really looked at that.

 

June 19th was when he stopped running. Since that day he has 4 steals. On that day Machado was hitting .326 and he has slowly dropped down to under .300 since than. I'm not saying that McLouth's running is the reason Machado has slowed down but I do think it's interesting that once he stopped is when Machado cooled down.

[JeremyStrain]

Interesting point, I never really looked at that.

 

June 19th was when he stopped running. Since that day he has 4 steals. On that day Machado was hitting .326 and he has slowly dropped down to under .300 since than. I'm not saying that McLouth's running is the reason Machado has slowed down but I do think it's interesting that once he stopped is when Machado cooled down.

 

Yeah like I said it could just be coincidence, but having a guy on that a pitcher is concerned with holding can force them to miss their spots to the batter. Jones I know is a great mistake hitter, so if he's getting more pitches up in the zone because guys don't want to throw pitches in the dirt while someone is running, it's a benefit. It's the whole basis for why teams used fast guys at the top of the order and not just the best OBP guy back in the 80's-forward.

 

A lot of pitchers don't pitch as well out of the stretch as they do from the wind-up, then add to that trying to hold a guy on, it can be JUST enough to get a mistake pitch or two. I mean if it were me, I'd be trying it again to see if helps.

 

I also thought Nate might just be working through a nagging injury too, cause it seemed awful sudden where they just stopped running.

[Oriole85]

Might just be coincidence but early in the year when he was running all the time was the best our offense has been all year. Not to mention the individual players were doing much better. Chicken or the egg though.

I really don't think it's a coincidence (him running less). I think Buck didn't want him doing with our offense, possibly injury concerns. The funny thing is the few times, he'd get out, you'd hear the rumblings why is he doing it with Manny up(while he was super hot). And I'd point out, he was running with Manny up when he was safe (proof it's only a bad move if you're out). 

[Oriole85]

Interesting point, I never really looked at that.

 

June 19th was when he stopped running. Since that day he has 4 steals. On that day Machado was hitting .326 and he has slowly dropped down to under .300 since than. I'm not saying that McLouth's running is the reason Machado has slowed down but I do think it's interesting that once he stopped is when Machado cooled down.

I thought it was closer to the Bandit T-shirt Night (July 9).

 

Remember that off-day poll Mackus did with -- Nate's steals, CD's homers, and JJ's saves -- which would be the most? Anyone not picking the middle option now?

[JeremyStrain]

I really don't think it's a coincidence (him running less). I think Buck didn't want him doing with our offense, possibly injury concerns. The funny thing is the few times, he'd get out, you'd hear the rumblings why is he doing it with Manny up(while he was super hot). And I'd point out, he was running with Manny up when he was safe (proof it's only a bad move if you're out). 

 

Yeah I know what you mean. I know people like to cry about taking the bat out of people's hands, but the threat of running is better than actually running and if you aren't running half way consistently, it's not really a threat anymore. One of those finer points of the game I guess. I was thinking earlier I wonder how many doubles down the line Manny had when the 1B was playing off the bag since Nate had stolen 2nd versus him holding the runner and sitting right in that hole, but then I think not many since he'd be going the other way to do it right?

[Oriole85]

Yeah like I said it could just be coincidence, but having a guy on that a pitcher is concerned with holding can force them to miss their spots to the batter. Jones I know is a great mistake hitter, so if he's getting more pitches up in the zone because guys don't want to throw pitches in the dirt while someone is running, it's a benefit. It's the whole basis for why teams used fast guys at the top of the order and not just the best OBP guy back in the 80's-forward.

 

A lot of pitchers don't pitch as well out of the stretch as they do from the wind-up, then add to that trying to hold a guy on, it can be JUST enough to get a mistake pitch or two. I mean if it were me, I'd be trying it again to see if helps.

 

I also thought Nate might just be working through a nagging injury too, cause it seemed awful sudden where they just stopped running.

If there's an injury, it's not evident atleast to me. But it's entirely possible. Like I said, I actually think it's a preventive measure in part.

[JeremyStrain]

If there's an injury, it's not evident atleast to me. But it's entirely possible. Like I said, I actually think it's a preventive measure in part.

 

Yeah it wouldn't be a big one or anything, but pro athletes play through bumps and bruises all the time that never get discussed, and when you are a big base stealing guy one of those little nagging ones could be just enough to take a step or two off, which would kill his success %.

 

I thought I remembered Buck casually saying a while back when Nate had an off day that he was just resting up some bumps and bruises...that's what made me think of it first.

[Oriole85]

Yeah I know what you mean. I know people like to cry about taking the bat out of people's hands, but the threat of running is better than actually running and if you aren't running half way consistently, it's not really a threat anymore. One of those finer points of the game I guess. I was thinking earlier I wonder how many doubles down the line Manny had when the 1B was playing off the bag since Nate had stolen 2nd versus him holding the runner and sitting right in that hole, but then I think not many since he'd be going the other way to do it right?

That would be a great study, just looking at the 1B positioning.

[Oriole85]

Yeah it wouldn't be a big one or anything, but pro athletes play through bumps and bruises all the time that never get discussed, and when you are a big base stealing guy one of those little nagging ones could be just enough to take a step or two off, which would kill his success %.

 

I thought I remembered Buck casually saying a while back when Nate had an off day that he was just resting up some bumps and bruises...that's what made me think of it first.

I think they're all resting more bumps and bruises than we know about. I pointed this out a while back, at a Ravens game in September (on an O's off-day), CD was photographed with a soft cast and everyone got super worried. I think that's way more common than we think.

[JeremyStrain]

That would be a great study, just looking at the 1B positioning.

 

Add it to the list of stuff I'm too lazy to write about

 

 

I think they're all resting more bumps and bruises than we know about. I pointed this out a while back, at a Ravens game in September (on an O's off-day), CD was photographed with a soft cast and everyone got super worried. I think that's way more common than we think.

 

Yep, seems like everyone's been getting a little more rest lately (except CD) so I'm sure they are icing and popping Advil every night at this point in the year.

[Oriole85]

Add it to the list of stuff I'm too lazy to write about

 

 

 

Yep, seems like everyone's been getting a little more rest lately (except CD) so I'm sure they are icing and popping Advil every night at this point in the year.

Wieters had a mini-vacation the past two weeks.

[Matt]

Yeah like I said it could just be coincidence, but having a guy on that a pitcher is concerned with holding can force them to miss their spots to the batter. Jones I know is a great mistake hitter, so if he's getting more pitches up in the zone because guys don't want to throw pitches in the dirt while someone is running, it's a benefit. It's the whole basis for why teams used fast guys at the top of the order and not just the best OBP guy back in the 80's-forward.

 

A lot of pitchers don't pitch as well out of the stretch as they do from the wind-up, then add to that trying to hold a guy on, it can be JUST enough to get a mistake pitch or two. I mean if it were me, I'd be trying it again to see if helps.

 

I also thought Nate might just be working through a nagging injury too, cause it seemed awful sudden where they just stopped running.

Manny with a runner on 1st - .259/.277/.362 in 119 at bats

Manny with a runner on 2nd - .317/.364/.512 in 49 at bats

 

Obviously the sample size isn't enough to conclude anything but it is very interesting. He's also even better with a runner on 3rd as he's hitting .429/.467/.500 but it's only over 14 at bats.

[Matt]

I thought it was closer to the Bandit T-shirt Night (July 9).

 

Remember that off-day poll Mackus did with -- Nate's steals, CD's homers, and JJ's saves -- which would be the most? Anyone not picking the middle option now?

He had one on June 19th then his next was on July 20th. I was sure that McLouth would have the highest total considering even in May when he had a .308 OBP he had 9 steals. It seemed to me like even when he has a rough month he will still get his steals since speed never goes in a slump but he had 1 steal in July when he had a .333 OBP. Safe to say I was wrong in that poll.

[Mackus]

The two guys that hit behind him are not power hitters though.

 

My point is the team struggles with OBP but has plenty of SLG.  Stealing bases is a way to increase your SLG at the risk of your OBP.  It's simply not worth the risk much of the time given the strengths and weaknesses, unless the situation dictates that either the reward is great or the risk is lower than usual (2-strikes, 2 outs, for example).

[JeremyStrain]

My point is the team struggles with OBP but has plenty of SLG.  Stealing bases is a way to increase your SLG at the risk of your OBP.  It's simply not worth the risk much of the time given the strengths and weaknesses, unless the situation dictates that either the reward is great or the risk is lower than usual (2-strikes, 2 outs, for example).

 

I don't think it is. I think SB is a way to unbalance pitchers that leads to both SLG and OBP by creating more mistake pitches. Definitely a risk/reward kinda thing, but I'm a believer in speed disrupting pitchers. There's only so much attention to go around at once.

[Mackus]

I don't think it is. I think SB is a way to unbalance pitchers that leads to both SLG and OBP by creating more mistake pitches. Definitely a risk/reward kinda thing, but I'm a believer in speed disrupting pitchers. There's only so much attention to go around at once.

 

Sure, I'm not considering any tangential effects of having a fast runner on base.  I think you could make an argument that the attention being paid to the runner on 1st effects the hitter as well, as it changes the timing of the pitcher. 

 

The bottom line is the same, though.  When your team is a crappy OBP team but great at SLG, you shouldn't regularly wager more of that OBP to get better SLG.  If Nate is stealing at a 95% clip, then the risk is worth it.  If he's down around 80%, then you gotta pick and choose your spots.  If it's other guys like Jones and Machado with low success rates, you should almost never go.

[JeremyStrain]

Sure, I'm not considering any tangential effects of having a fast runner on base.  I think you could make an argument that the attention being paid to the runner on 1st effects the hitter as well, as it changes the timing of the pitcher. 

 

The bottom line is the same, though.  When your team is a crappy OBP team but great at SLG, you shouldn't regularly wager more of that OBP to get better SLG.  If Nate is stealing at a 95% clip, then the risk is worth it.  If he's down around 80%, then you gotta pick and choose your spots.  If it's other guys like Jones and Machado with low success rates, you should almost never go.

 

Sure, I'm not considering any tangential effects of having a fast runner on base.  I think you could make an argument that the attention being paid to the runner on 1st effects the hitter as well, as it changes the timing of the pitcher. 

 

The bottom line is the same, though.  When your team is a crappy OBP team but great at SLG, you shouldn't regularly wager more of that OBP to get better SLG.  If Nate is stealing at a 95% clip, then the risk is worth it.  If he's down around 80%, then you gotta pick and choose your spots.  If it's other guys like Jones and Machado with low success rates, you should almost never go.

 

Yeah I know what you're saying. It's not that I disagree with you. It's just two schools of thought really. For me I'm hoping the pitcher gets a little sloppy with the hitter worrying about holding the guy, but agreed that the concern of taking one of the few baserunners off is going to negate the small % you make it easier for Manny/Jones.

[Matt]

My point is the team struggles with OBP but has plenty of SLG.  Stealing bases is a way to increase your SLG at the risk of your OBP.  It's simply not worth the risk much of the time given the strengths and weaknesses, unless the situation dictates that either the reward is great or the risk is lower than usual (2-strikes, 2 outs, for example).

I get what you're saying but what I'm saying is that Machado and Markakis are the two most directly effected by Nate's base running and neither of them are power hitters. Machado has power but Markakis hasn't displayed any this year. Markakis is much more of an OBP guy at this point. I don't think Nate's base running really effects Jones, Davis, or Hardy.

[Mackus]

I get what you're saying but what I'm saying is that Machado and Markakis are the two most directly effected by Nate's base running and neither of them are power hitters. Machado has power but Markakis hasn't displayed any this year. Markakis is much more of an OBP guy at this point. I don't think Nate's base running really effects Jones, Davis, or Hardy.

 

I'm not sure you are getting what I'm saying.  It doesn't matter who is behind Nate, that's irrelevant to my point.  If he gets caught stealing, that lowers the team's effective OBP.  But if he successfully steals a base, it raises the team's effective slugging.  This team doesn't need to be in the business of gambling OBP to try and get more SLG.  We've got the SLG covered. 

 

Aside from specific situations where the benefit of that extra base is greater (tight game) and/or the cost of losing that baserunner is lower (2 outs / 2 strikes), I think it's a smart decision by Buck and Nate to be running less.  I wouldn't be having anybody other than Nate be stealing bases regularly at this point, since he's the only guy on the team that's even decent at it.