90 replies to this topic

[Greg Pappas]

With 8 days til the draft, based on most projections which have Appel, Buxton, and Zunino going in the top 3 picks, the odds seem to be on Gausman. Correa is my first choice but under this scenario I'm down with Gausman. Do the O's take Gausman even if one of Gausman, Appel, and Buxton is avaiable? Suppose Appel, Gausman, and Buxton are gone. Do the O's take Zunino over Zimmer, Correa, etc? Suppose Appel, Zimmer, and Gausman go 1-2-3? I suppose Buxton is a no brainer at that point, or is he? I know the O's have Buxton in for a workout but no one knows just how high they are on him. Would they pick Buxton or Zunino? It's going to be pretty interesting, watching those first 3 picks.

Yeah, I think Gausman looks to be the choice at this juncture, but a few things can happen to alter that.

1> Gausman may go before we pick.
2> A player we like better may fall, such as Buxton or Appel.
3> A player like Correa may be cheaper than Gausman, and thus the O's could utilize the savings later in the draft by selecting a cheaper -though just as highly rated- talent at pick #4.

Since you and I both like Correa so much, scenario #3 works great.

[bhrusty]

1> Possible, Houston is all over the place, and the Twins might take him as well. I peg this at 15%
2>I don't believe Buxton gets to Baltimore, and the general buzz is that most evaluators are leaning toward Gausman over Appel even if both are there.
3> I don't see how Correa would be cheaper. As a HS player he's got better leverage (A UT offer) than Gausman. Yes, G is Sophomore eligible, but he's an old Sophomore at 21.5 so I can't see him going back into the draft at 22.5.

[JeremyStrain]

1> Possible, Houston is all over the place, and the Twins might take him as well. I peg this at 15%
2>I don't believe Buxton gets to Baltimore, and the general buzz is that most evaluators are leaning toward Gausman over Appel even if both are there.
3> I don't see how Correa would be cheaper. As a HS player he's got better leverage (A UT offer) than Gausman. Yes, G is Sophomore eligible, but he's an old Sophomore at 21.5 so I can't see him going back into the draft at 22.5.

First 3 are all over the place.

Everyone is so close together that a preference list almost doesn't even matter. I can't think of a year like this in the past 5-10 years, there are usually at least 2-3 guys at the top that separate from the pack.

[Nuclear Dish]

I don't think we're going to take Zunino. I think we'd go for Buxton if he's there, but I don't see that happening.

Worst case scenario for us is Appel, Gausman, Buxton, leaving us with either Zunino, Zimmer, or Correa, none of which are high on my list. In that case, I think we take Zimmer, and it ends up being a mistake.

Other options:

Buxton, Appel, Zunino, leaving us with Gausman
Appel, Zunino, Buxton, leaving us with Gausman

As I said before, my strong opinion is that:
1. HOU is taking either Appel or Buxton, and no one else.
2. MIN is the wild card, potentially taking any of the 4 top guys.
3. SEA is taking a hitter, either Buxton or Zunino, unless both are gone already. They will take Buxton is he's available.

[JeffLong]

Giolito is throwing again (as he has been for a while I'm sure).

These videos are basically useless but here they are anyway:

http://mlbdraftinsid..._medium=twitter

[Greg Pappas]

For me, the player that seems to be overrated in this draft, is Florida catcher Mike Zunino. When I say he's overrated, it is not to imply that he will not be a Major Leaguer, but rather that he's typically being rated by most scouting sources as a Top 5 talent. I believe that he is a good player and should become a decent player in the majors, but I think his obvious struggles in hitting within the SEC is a red flag... and drops him down my board, outside the top ten.

I'm likely alone in my views on this, and readily admit to not having time to cover the draft as I have in the past. However, I am curious to see how others view Zunino's prospects and/or ranking.

[JeremyStrain]

For me, the player that seems to be overrated in this draft, is Florida catcher Mike Zunino. When I say he's overrated, it is not to imply that he will not be a Major Leaguer, but rather that he's typically being rated by most scouting sources as a Top 5 talent. I believe that he is a good player and should become a decent player in the majors, but I think his obvious struggles in hitting within the SEC is a red flag... and drops him down my board, outside the top ten.

I'm likely alone in my views on this, and readily admit to not having time to cover the draft as I have in the past. However, I am curious to see how others view Zunino's prospects and/or ranking.

Down in the 7-10 range for me. People wanted to compare him to Wieters, which led to the hype, but he's not quite that level. I think he'll get to the majors and probably be a starter, but I don't think he's some MVP candidate like the hype was indicating recently.

[SportsGuy]

I hope we end up with Buxton but I am doubting it.

[JeffLong]

For me, the player that seems to be overrated in this draft, is Florida catcher Mike Zunino. When I say he's overrated, it is not to imply that he will not be a Major Leaguer, but rather that he's typically being rated by most scouting sources as a Top 5 talent. I believe that he is a good player and should become a decent player in the majors, but I think his obvious struggles in hitting within the SEC is a red flag... and drops him down my board, outside the top ten.

I'm likely alone in my views on this, and readily admit to not having time to cover the draft as I have in the past. However, I am curious to see how others view Zunino's prospects and/or ranking.

Down in the 7-10 range for me. People wanted to compare him to Wieters, which led to the hype, but he's not quite that level. I think he'll get to the majors and probably be a starter, but I don't think he's some MVP candidate like the hype was indicating recently.

Zunino looked much better last year when he was crushing the ball. Now he looks like he's more of an average hitter that's a lock to stick at C. Kind of like a less-exciting Varitek.

[Woody Ball]

From my very imperfect reading of message board tea leaves, I'd guess the O's board looks like this.

1. Buxton
2. Gausman
3. Appel
4. ??

It's entirely possible that the top 3 ends up with those three in some order. That draft scenario would leave us with Correa, Zunino, Zimmer or Stroman? I'm assuming Almora isn't part of this discussion.

I think our best hope might be Appel, Gausman, Correa (in a shocking move by Seattle) and Buxton falls to us. Seems highly unlikely, but nobody really though Rendon would fall as much as he did last year.

Should be a fun week.

[JeffLong]

I hope we end up with Buxton but I am doubting it.

I really want us to get one of: Buxton, Correa, Giolito.
I would always go high-upside in the first round, take high floor guys in later rounds.

I saw a mock of Giolito going to the Nats at 18 (or wherever they pick, the # eludes me). This terrifies me. I didn't like the Purke pick last year, but I LOVE the philosophy behind it. If they could draft and sign Giolito at 18 it'd be an absolute steal.

I don't care about injuries (unless they're really really serious). Odds are pretty good he gets injured at some point in the 3-4 years he spends in the minors anyway. In my opinion $4.2 Million gets it done easily.

[bhrusty]

I hope we end up with Buxton but I am doubting it.

I really want us to get one of: Buxton, Correa, Giolito.
I would always go high-upside in the first round, take high floor guys in later rounds.

I saw a mock of Giolito going to the Nats at 18 (or wherever they pick, the # eludes me). This terrifies me. I didn't like the Purke pick last year, but I LOVE the philosophy behind it. If they could draft and sign Giolito at 18 it'd be an absolute steal.

I don't care about injuries (unless they're really really serious). Odds are pretty good he gets injured at some point in the 3-4 years he spends in the minors anyway. In my opinion $4.2 Million gets it done easily.

I don't know. Having a preexisting injury (and a college commitment) makes Giolito untouchable to me. Unless the O's get a physical/see him throw live I hope they don't use the pick on him.

Say what you will for high ceiling HSers, but you really need to be right on them at the top of the draft. The "safe" choice might not always be the sexiest choice, but I would rather take a guy like Gausman who could be the #3 starter as soon as 2014 over a guy like Correa or Giolito who will still be in A+ ball.

Don't confuse high school with high ceiling. None of the experts put Gio in Bundy's class.

[ChaosLex]

FWIW, Law now has the O's taking Correa.

[bnickle]

Glad the O's plan on taking BPA and IMO that will likely be Correa.

[SportsGuy]

http://www.masnsport... ... um=twitter

Callis has us taking Gausmann as well...but seems to think they take Correa is he is there.

[JeremyStrain]

http://www.masnsports.com/steve_melewski/2012/05/jim-callis-projects-which-player-the-os-will-take-in-round-one-of-the-draft.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Callis has us taking Gausmann as well...but seems to think they take Correa is he is there.

Yeah it's going to depend on the first 3 picks for sure, but those top 5 are pretty much dead even. I still think Buxton goes in 1-3 somewhere, but the next 2 are toss ups. I think we end up with one of Correa, Gausman, or Appel though.

[Greg Pappas]

My preferred list is Correa / Almora /Gausman / Buxton / Appel ... so if we get any of them I'll be very pleased. I just don't want to see the O's reach like they did for Hobgood, and go for a signability guy.

[JeremyStrain]

My preferred list is Correa / Almora /Gausman / Buxton / Appel ... so if we get any of them I'll be very pleased. I just don't want to see the O's reach like they did for Hobgood, and go for a signability guy.

Agreed...even though Matzek hasn't been super tearing it up I'd still rather have him.

[Greg Pappas]

My preferred list is Correa / Almora /Gausman / Buxton / Appel ... so if we get any of them I'll be very pleased. I just don't want to see the O's reach like they did for Hobgood, and go for a signability guy.

Agreed...even though Matzek hasn't been super tearing it up I'd still rather have him.

Jordan took his shot with Hobgood, and thus far it hasn't worked out... it's a shame all around. The guy I would have taken (although Matzek was slightly higher rated on my board) was SS Grant Green, and he's 24 at AAA for Oakland, and doesn't look all that promising anymore. He may be a ML'er, but Green doesn't look like a he'll be that productive, and may be relegated to a utility player. We all swing and miss.

[waroriole]

FWIW, Law now has the O's taking Correa.

Good, I'm not a big fan of taking Gausman.