90 replies to this topic

[JeremyStrain]

You think Zimmer is only about three seasons away? I'm not doubting his talent but he'll need to spend some serious time refining his secondary pitches if he doesn't want to get stuck in the bullpen.

Then again, college pitchers are almost always no more than three seasons away than anyone else so you're very well likely right in your assessment there.

Giolito is an interesting case to me because of two factors: his injury and the fact that he could simply choose to go to school if a team is not willing to go high overslot for him. Not saying he'd turn down around $4 million, but teams would probably be more reluctant to do so if it severely impacts the quality of the players they could take in the following 9 rounds or so.

I have a feeling if he falls out of the top 10 and doesn't garner the money he could get if he goes to school and comes back in two years then he's likely not to sign. Too big of a risk for me with the new rules in place.

I'm starting to come around on Stroman though - I wouldn't mind if the O's took him with the #4 pick if Gausman and Appel are both off the board.

Aside from Stroman's amazing attitude and willing to do what it takes, there's this:

Fastball: 92-97 mph
Slider: 79-87 mph
Changeup: 78-84 mph
Cutter: 84-91 mph

Yeah, year 1, high A, year 2, AA, year 3 AAA is pretty much the normal path for a college SP. Look at Wright, not even a first rounder and he's in AA his first year. AA is the real deciding level though.

Yeah Nick thinks Gio is going to want $5m which is just below the #3 spot, but if he would take $4.2 that puts him right in the O's lap. Kid has a ceiling up there near Bundy though. I think if he falls past #5 he goes to UCLA and gets the #1 spot when he comes out, UCLA is a good pitching school to go to.

I've seen Stroman's stuff first hand, it's NASTY, and if he decides on a pitch to throw in on RH he's going to be unhittable. He's got a curve he's working on that is fall out of the box nasty.

[JeremyStrain]

Haha, I saw your question to Callis on Twitter. Told you that it's pretty much a pick a name out of a hat top 10 or so.

I can't think of another year where I could make a case for 6+ people at #1 and just as easily make a case for them in the 6-10 range. It's a really weird year. Kinda like 08, but a little more clumped together.

[Luke Jackson]

Re: Giolito. His camp can pick and choose what teams he throws in front of before the draft. They can effectively limit the teams that he'd go to this way -- I don't know if any team would take him if the last time they saw him throw was in March. Giolito's camp could also limit the medical information some teams get. The other thing we don't really know if how the finances of this draft are going to work. Can a team drafting 12th find a way to overpay for Giolito? Or if Giolito's drop-dead number is $5M, will only teams in the top three be able to sign him? (If he doesn't go top five or ten or whatever, he has a really good fallback option in UCLA.) Giolito is the big wild card in this draft because he's the biggest upside arm in the draft but there's definitely some unknown there on multiple levels.

[JeremyStrain]

Re: Giolito. His camp can pick and choose what teams he throws in front of before the draft. They can effectively limit the teams that he'd go to this way -- I don't know if any team would take him if the last time they saw him throw was in March. Giolito's camp could also limit the medical information some teams get. The other thing we don't really know if how the finances of this draft are going to work. Can a team drafting 12th find a way to overpay for Giolito? Or if Giolito's drop-dead number is $5M, will only teams in the top three be able to sign him? (If he doesn't go top five or ten or whatever, he has a really good fallback option in UCLA.) Giolito is the big wild card in this draft because he's the biggest upside arm in the draft but there's definitely some unknown there on multiple levels.

Yeah this is what Nick and I have been talking about for a couple weeks now. The big unknown like you said, is how the new CBA is going to affect the signings. I wonder if there are going to be more non-signs this year than others because of it, this year will be a guinea pig year I think.

With Gio, the assumption is he's looking for around $5, the slot for #4 is $4.2 at #5 he's looking around 4m less than #1, so the question is going to be if that 3.5-4m is worth the risk of coming out in 2-3 years. The difference is 3m at #4, so it's not as bad, and at #3 it's only 2m. I think at 3 he signs, at 4 MAYBE he doesn't, and 5 and lower he goes to UCLA.

[Luke Jackson]

I continue to feel a bit...underwhelmed by the college arms. When you're looking for a college arm at 4, I feel like you want a really polished arm that can fly through a system -- Matusz, Hultzen, Bauer, etc. -- or a more raw arm that has No. 1 starter stuff. Are any of Appel, Gausman, Zimmer, Stroman, Stratton going to fly through the O's system as a starter? Probably not. (Yes to Stroman as a reliever though.) Do any of those guys have Cole, Bundy, Bradley type of No. 1 starter stuff? Doesn't sound like it. That leaves two high school arms to pick from and the high school position crop (don't think they'll take Zunino). That's Giolito (who knows if they're throwing for the O's in the future), Fried, Almora, Correa, Hawkins. Based on what I've read, I'd go for the potential star and take Carlos Correa and dream of a left side of Machado and Correa. But that's just me. If you take a college pitcher and he develops into a 2/3, that's totally terrific and everything too. 2/3 starters are fantastic.

[JeremyStrain]

I continue to feel a bit...underwhelmed by the college arms. When you're looking for a college arm at 4, I feel like you want a really polished arm that can fly through a system -- Matusz, Hultzen, Bauer, etc. -- or a more raw arm that has No. 1 starter stuff. Are any of Appel, Gausman, Zimmer, Stroman, Stratton going to fly through the O's system as a starter? Probably not. (Yes to Stroman as a reliever though.) Do any of those guys have Cole, Bundy, Bradley type of No. 1 starter stuff? Doesn't sound like it. That leaves two high school arms to pick from and the high school position crop (don't think they'll take Zunino). That's Giolito (who knows if they're throwing for the O's in the future), Fried, Almora, Correa, Hawkins. Based on what I've read, I'd go for the potential star and take Carlos Correa and dream of a left side of Machado and Correa. But that's just me. If you take a college pitcher and he develops into a 2/3, that's totally terrific and everything too. 2/3 starters are fantastic.

Yeah that's kinda where I am this year too. If we were picking at 6-8 I'd be ok with just about any of these guys that fell, but at 4, and having the choice I get more critical. I actually think Stroman DOES have the stuff to fly through the system though. I have been ignoring the height, and I think he makes up for the lack of downward plane from the excellent tilt he has. I think Appel and Gausman make successful #2/3s but I think Appel they are both gone at 4, and I would probably gamble on Stroman over Gausman, but that's easy to say when I'm not making the pick and my job isn't on the line.

Correa is also right there for me, that rounds out my top 5: Giolito, Appel, Correa, Stroman, Gausman.

[LanceRinker]

Haha, I saw your question to Callis on Twitter. Told you that it's pretty much a pick a name out of a hat top 10 or so.

I can't think of another year where I could make a case for 6+ people at #1 and just as easily make a case for them in the 6-10 range. It's a really weird year. Kinda like 08, but a little more clumped together.

Yeah, it is odd how this is all working out - unfortunately this is also the kind of year where a team gets stuck picking a 'Billy Rowel' ahead of a 'Tim Lincecum' or a 'Max Scherzer' and not realizing it until it's way too late.

That's the one uneasy thing about a crowded draft like this - even people are uneasy about Buxton as the #1 pick. Appel is probably the best choice for #1, IMO, and Gausman after him. Zimmer would be a clear #2/3 if I didn't have so many concerns about his health right now. I know he'll be fine, but teams don't want to draft someone #1 or #2 overall if he's currently nursing an injury.

[Luke Jackson]

I think you hit on an excellent point about "your job not being on the line." No one knows how Gary Rajsich will run a draft. Joe Jordan established trends in that he loved to get an athletic center field type somewhere in the first five or ten rounds of the draft. Joe also liked big projectable pitchers who threw hard, as does everyone. We'll see how Rajsich runs a draft. No way to recongize his trends until down the line. And this no. 4 pick has the potential to be a *huge* building block for the Orioles, so part of me thinks that the kind of new regime will want to make the conventional pick as to not do anything off the walls with that pick. This makes me think college arm, but again, maybe Rajsich dances to the beat of his own drum. We just don't know yet.

[Luke Jackson]

Yeah, it is odd how this is all working out - unfortunately this is also the kind of year where a team gets stuck picking a 'Billy Rowel' ahead of a 'Tim Lincecum' or a 'Max Scherzer' and not realizing it until it's way too late.

That's the one uneasy thing about a crowded draft like this - even people are uneasy about Buxton as the #1 pick. Appel is probably the best choice for #1, IMO, and Gausman after him. Zimmer would be a clear #2/3 if I didn't have so many concerns about his health right now. I know he'll be fine, but teams don't want to draft someone #1 or #2 overall if he's currently nursing an injury.

Teams with those elite-level draft picks do like to take guys who are performing at their best. Really tough to use the no. 4 or 6 pick on a kid who performed his best four months ago.

[Luke Jackson]

Random thought: Odds that the Ravens' and Orioles' top 2012 draft picks are guys named Courtney?

[LanceRinker]

I was looking for an old interview that Gary Rajsich did with Steve Melewski a while back and found it:

http://www.masnsport...ry-rajsich.html

Here are the bits and pieces I found somewhat important:

As you said, you want to know a lot about these kids. Obviously the baseball skills come first, but what other things do you want to know about the players?

"Well, it's a general term, but overall makeup. We want to make sure that we have good emotionally solid and stable kids that come from good houses and they have good support systems in place with their parents and families. That they come from a loving household. This is a game of failure, so it's important for these kids to have a good foundation behind them and a lot of support."

How do you look at things like physical size. At times, Joe Jordan drafted some smaller players, like Matt Angle and Kyle Hudson. How do you rate that?

"Physical size is important but you need strength. It doesn't matter if you are small, short, tall, thin, large. We look for projectable guys with good bodies that are projectable so that when they grow into young men that they have the strength and durability to play 162 games or throw 200 innings. It's a strong man's game and you have to be durable."

Obviously this is very little to go on but a part of me feels like we're probably taking a pitcher with our first round pick and if Gausman and Appel are not there, which they likely won't be, then that leaves Zimmer, Fried and Stromen.

Between those three I'd prefer Zimmer or Stromen. I wonder if Stromen could become the next Pedro Martinez (who's listed at 5'11" but is more like 5'10"). Duquette did trade for Pedro back in the day when he was with the Dodgers and everyone said he was too small to be a good SP.

[JeremyStrain]

I think you hit on an excellent point about "your job not being on the line." No one knows how Gary Rajsich will run a draft. Joe Jordan established trends in that he loved to get an athletic center field type somewhere in the first five or ten rounds of the draft. Joe also liked big projectable pitchers who threw hard, as does everyone. We'll see how Rajsich runs a draft. No way to recongize his trends until down the line. And this no. 4 pick has the potential to be a *huge* building block for the Orioles, so part of me thinks that the kind of new regime will want to make the conventional pick as to not do anything off the walls with that pick. This makes me think college arm, but again, maybe Rajsich dances to the beat of his own drum. We just don't know yet.

Yeah I think there are 2 brand new SD in the top 4 which is throwing things off because you can't use trends. My GUT is that Appel, Buxton and Gausman go 1-3 in some form. I know the O's are in bigtime on Buxton, so if he's there I think he's the pick. I'm THINKING that means that GR isn't afraid of the high ceiling HS picks, but it also makes me think DD is actually in the decision making process heavy since he brought in a non-amateur guy to run things. If I recall I think DD likes college position players and HS pitchers, but there isn't MUCH of a trend either way.

[JeremyStrain]

I was looking for an old interview that Gary Rajsich did with Steve Melewski a while back and found it:

http://www.masnsport...ry-rajsich.html

Here are the bits and pieces I found somewhat important:

As you said, you want to know a lot about these kids. Obviously the baseball skills come first, but what other things do you want to know about the players?

"Well, it's a general term, but overall makeup. We want to make sure that we have good emotionally solid and stable kids that come from good houses and they have good support systems in place with their parents and families. That they come from a loving household. This is a game of failure, so it's important for these kids to have a good foundation behind them and a lot of support."

How do you look at things like physical size. At times, Joe Jordan drafted some smaller players, like Matt Angle and Kyle Hudson. How do you rate that?

"Physical size is important but you need strength. It doesn't matter if you are small, short, tall, thin, large. We look for projectable guys with good bodies that are projectable so that when they grow into young men that they have the strength and durability to play 162 games or throw 200 innings. It's a strong man's game and you have to be durable."

Obviously this is very little to go on but a part of me feels like we're probably taking a pitcher with our first round pick and if Gausman and Appel are not there, which they likely won't be, then that leaves Zimmer, Fried and Stromen.

Between those three I'd prefer Zimmer or Stromen. I wonder if Stromen could become the next Pedro Martinez (who's listed at 5'11" but is more like 5'10"). Duquette did trade for Pedro back in the day when he was with the Dodgers and everyone said he was too small to be a good SP.

Pedro might not be a terrible comp for Stroman. On a stuff basis, it's not far off. I'm just choosing to look past the height issue and say, if he were 6'1 he'd be the #1 pick, so why can't he be at 5'10?

[LanceRinker]

Pedro might not be a terrible comp for Stroman. On a stuff basis, it's not far off. I'm just choosing to look past the height issue and say, if he were 6'1 he'd be the #1 pick, so why can't he be at 5'10?

That's my thinking as well - the only reason I discount him as a #1 pick is because many SD's tend to have this misconception that if you're not the prototypical 6+ ft tall then you'll never hold up - it's archaic in my opinion. A lot more goes into whether a player can hold up or not than just his height. Conditioning and the personal motivation to suceed can go a long way in how players develop and hold up over the long haul.

If our choice boils down to Zimmer or Stroman than who are you picking?

[JeremyStrain]

Pedro might not be a terrible comp for Stroman. On a stuff basis, it's not far off. I'm just choosing to look past the height issue and say, if he were 6'1 he'd be the #1 pick, so why can't he be at 5'10?

That's my thinking as well - the only reason I discount him as a #1 pick is because many SD's tend to have this misconception that if you're not the prototypical 6+ ft tall then you'll never hold up - it's archaic in my opinion. A lot more goes into whether a player can hold up or not than just his height. Conditioning and the personal motivation to suceed can go a long way in how players develop and hold up over the long haul.

If our choice boils down to Zimmer or Stroman than who are you picking?

Stroman without any hesitation. If it's Gausman or Stroman I'd have to think about it, but Zimmer is in the 7-10 range for me. I basically flip flop him and Stroman from where a lot of people have them.

[bhrusty]

My biggest issue with Giolito is the injury, but the money is a close second.

By every report he is going to want overslot, up to about 5M. If the Orioles take him at 4, where the slot is 4.2m it will be difficult to move to that number. With the new rules that means the Orioles will have to value draft at 65 (800k-ish slot) 99 (480k ish slot) and even 132 (350k)

That leaves you with essentially an entire weakened draft class in order to take one player, who has major question marks. And if you don't sign up you wind up with a class anchored by a bunch of overdrafts.

[JeremyStrain]

My biggest issue with Giolito is the injury, but the money is a close second.

By every report he is going to want overslot, up to about 5M. If the Orioles take him at 4, where the slot is 4.2m it will be difficult to move to that number. With the new rules that means the Orioles will have to value draft at 65 (800k-ish slot) 99 (480k ish slot) and even 132 (350k)

That leaves you with essentially an entire weakened draft class in order to take one player, who has major question marks. And if you don't sign up you wind up with a class anchored by a bunch of overdrafts.

That's where the questions come in, because it's the first year of this. There shouldn't BE any overslots anymore, where you are picked is what you get, but I think it's going to take a year or two of that happening before agents and players accept it. On his end, if he goes #1 his max is 7.2, so is $3m worth the risk of going to school and coming out higher than #5? Especially since he'd be half way through his team control by then and only 3 years away from a REAL contract instead of 6 years away after college.

His situation is a total wild card.

[BSLChrisStoner]

The more I read about Almora, the more I like. Everybody that knows though, says a college pitcher is almost a lock.

[Greg Pappas]

The more I read about Almora, the more I like. Everybody that knows though, says a college pitcher is almost a lock.

Which folks are saying that?

[JeremyStrain]

The more I read about Almora, the more I like. Everybody that knows though, says a college pitcher is almost a lock.

Which folks are saying that?

No one who really knows, cause it's a brand new SD and a GM that doesn't lean one way or another

I'm about 99% sure that if Buxton is there, he is the pick, just don't think he will be.