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Who do you think the O's will take?


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#1 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 22 May 2012 - 09:41 AM

Not who you want the O's to take, or think they should; who do you think they will?

Some recent Mock Drafts:

MLB Dirt 5/22: http://mlbdirt.com/2...ft-may-edition/
O's: Carlos Correa, SS

MyMLBDraft.com 5/14: http://www.mymlbdraf...Mock-Draft-2012
O's: Kevin Gausman, P

MLB.com 5/18 / Jonathan Mayo: http://mlb.mlb.com/n...ws_mlb&c_id=mlb
O's: Kevin Gausman, P

MLB Draft Countdown 5/15: http://mlbdraftcount... ... y-15-2012/
O's: Kyle Zimmer, P

Prospect Insider 5/17: http://prospectinsider.com/Mock.php
O's: Kevin Gausman, P

#2 JeffLong

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Posted 22 May 2012 - 10:02 AM

Going upset and picking Almora.

I feel like it's more of a toss up now than ever before.
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#3 psapitch13

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Posted 22 May 2012 - 10:06 AM

If Gausman is available the O's must take him. Zimmer would be the consolation prize if Gausman goes off the board before they pick. Maybe they pick Zimmer because he is 20 lbs heavier already. No chance they draft a SS.
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#4 JeffLong

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Posted 22 May 2012 - 10:19 AM

If Gausman is available the O's must take him. Zimmer would be the consolation prize if Gausman goes off the board before they pick. Maybe they pick Zimmer because he is 20 lbs heavier already. No chance they draft a SS.


Correa is likely to move to 3B rather quickly. You could do worse than an INF of Correa, Machado, Schoop at 3B, SS, 2B
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#5 LanceRinker

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Posted 22 May 2012 - 03:29 PM

This really depends on what the Astros do with the number one pick.

I could see various scenarios playing out in relation to who is still available for the O's (and I believe they'll go best available).

Some mock drafts have the Astros taking Byron Buxton, which they should, but they could also take Mark Appel - quality pitching never hurt anyone, especially when Appel is already fairly polished and could potentially be in the majors within three seasons. That and the fact that they really don't have much pitching depth in their system that woudl be as good as him.

If the Astros take Buxton then I see the Twins taking Appel and the Mariners taking Kevin Gausman or Carlos Correa. That would leave Mike Zunino and either Gausman or Correa - I do not see the O's taking Correa, even if he's best available, but hey - they may surprise us all.

That leaves it open to either Guasman or Zunino, which they would likely take Gausman.

However, if the Astros take Appel than I could see the Twins taking Gausman and the Mariners would very quickly snatch up Buxton. That means the O's would have the choice between Zunino and Correa, in regards to best available and they would be smart to select Zunino.

So there you have it - they're taking either Gausman or Zunino in my very non-scientific,yet logical approach.

#6 RichardZ

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Posted 22 May 2012 - 04:11 PM

I want them to take Correa. I'm guessing they'll take who is left from the 3 college pitchers in this order.

1. Zimmer
2. Gausman
3. Appel

#7 JeffLong

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Posted 22 May 2012 - 04:31 PM

I want them to take Correa. I'm guessing they'll take who is left from the 3 college pitchers in this order.

1. Zimmer
2. Gausman
3. Appel


Zimmer has cooled off a bit. I honestly want nothing to do with Zimmer or Appel as both have fairly large question marks IMO.

Gotta think the Mariners go with a bat at 3 leaving 2 of the college pitchers, Fried, Almora and Correa or Zunino for the O's at 4 (depending on the M's).
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#8 LanceRinker

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Posted 22 May 2012 - 04:41 PM

A part of me wants the O's to select Zunino with their first pick as opposed to a college arm, or any arm for that matter.

I know that strong pitching is what really makes a team competitive but Zunino is being compared to Matt Wieters (in a good way obviously) and I think, long term, it would make sense because we would then have our back-up plan at catcher if we are unable to re-sign Wieters or if Wieters starts to break down in 4 or 5 years (as many catchers do) and needs to be relegated to DH/1B and only part time catching duties.

Here's the article on mlb.com making the comparison:

http://mlb.mlb.com/n...ws_mlb&c_id=mlb

#9 bhrusty

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Posted 22 May 2012 - 08:29 PM

I want them to take Correa. I'm guessing they'll take who is left from the 3 college pitchers in this order.

1. Zimmer
2. Gausman
3. Appel


A week ago I was Appel, Gausman, Zimmer, but I think the top two switch for me.

I am confident the Orioles will take a college pitcher from that trio, I would take Gausman if it was my choice.
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#10 Nuclear Dish

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Posted 23 May 2012 - 03:54 AM

I have a hard time believing that they would pass on Appel if he falls all the way to #4. If Appel's gone, and Gausman is available, I think they'll take him. If both are gone, I think they'll take Zimmer. Buxton isn't falling past the Mariners.

As long as they stay away from Strohman, I'm happy.

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#11 JeremyStrain

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Posted 23 May 2012 - 07:30 AM

BPA is how it will shake out, the problem is that it's a weak draft and the entire top 10 is bunched together talent wise, so if you ask the top 10 who the top 4 players are you're going to get 10 different answers.

A couple things though, Zunino is far from Wieters, people are making the comparison in a lazy way just to have someone to compare to, comps are traps with the draft though, and he is no Wieters. Matt was widely thought to be the BPA in a fairly deep draft, Zunino is in and out of the top 5 in a weak draft. People are just grasping at straws for things to say about this draft.

Zimmer has unimpressed enough that I don't even consider him in the top 5, which at the moment I go: Giolito, Appel, Correa, Stroman, Gausman.
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#12 LanceRinker

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Posted 23 May 2012 - 08:49 AM

BPA is how it will shake out, the problem is that it's a weak draft and the entire top 10 is bunched together talent wise, so if you ask the top 10 who the top 4 players are you're going to get 10 different answers.

A couple things though, Zunino is far from Wieters, people are making the comparison in a lazy way just to have someone to compare to, comps are traps with the draft though, and he is no Wieters. Matt was widely thought to be the BPA in a fairly deep draft, Zunino is in and out of the top 5 in a weak draft. People are just grasping at straws for things to say about this draft.

Zimmer has unimpressed enough that I don't even consider him in the top 5, which at the moment I go: Giolito, Appel, Correa, Stroman, Gausman.


Fair enough evaluation of Zunino - however, the biggest reason I see him being compared to Wieters is his defense and mental makeup. Not sure if he'll ever be as good as Wieters is/will be offensively but the defense and mental makeup are both there. If Appel and Guasman are already off the board he wouldn't be a bad selection.

#13 RichardZ

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Posted 23 May 2012 - 09:03 AM

Curious as to why some of you guys think Appel and Gausman are clearly ahead of Zimmer. Zimmer is :

1. 20 years old (4 months younger than Appel, 9 months younger than Gausman)
2. Athletic (former infielder)
3. throws 94-96
4. has a hammer curve
5. is said to have the makings of a good changeup
6. has numbers comparable to the other two this year


Zimmer has been mentioned as a possible #1 overall selection. Not saying he's better than the other two but I don't see where he's necesarily #3 in the pecking order.

#14 JeremyStrain

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Posted 23 May 2012 - 10:42 AM

BPA is how it will shake out, the problem is that it's a weak draft and the entire top 10 is bunched together talent wise, so if you ask the top 10 who the top 4 players are you're going to get 10 different answers.

A couple things though, Zunino is far from Wieters, people are making the comparison in a lazy way just to have someone to compare to, comps are traps with the draft though, and he is no Wieters. Matt was widely thought to be the BPA in a fairly deep draft, Zunino is in and out of the top 5 in a weak draft. People are just grasping at straws for things to say about this draft.

Zimmer has unimpressed enough that I don't even consider him in the top 5, which at the moment I go: Giolito, Appel, Correa, Stroman, Gausman.


Fair enough evaluation of Zunino - however, the biggest reason I see him being compared to Wieters is his defense and mental makeup. Not sure if he'll ever be as good as Wieters is/will be offensively but the defense and mental makeup are both there. If Appel and Guasman are already off the board he wouldn't be a bad selection.


But Wieters is who he is because of the offensive skills on top of the other two. There were actually concerns his defense wouldn't be THAT great in the pros, he really worked on it. You can get guys that are great defensively with good mental make up in the 6-10th rounds. He does have a good well rounded game, I just don't see him better than a couple other guys at #4, if we are talking like 7th, I'd probably jump all over him there.
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#15 LanceRinker

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Posted 23 May 2012 - 10:45 AM

Curious as to why some of you guys think Appel and Gausman are clearly ahead of Zimmer. Zimmer is :

1. 20 years old (4 months younger than Appel, 9 months younger than Gausman)
2. Athletic (former infielder)
3. throws 94-96
4. has a hammer curve
5. is said to have the makings of a good changeup
6. has numbers comparable to the other two this year


Zimmer has been mentioned as a possible #1 overall selection. Not saying he's better than the other two but I don't see where he's necesarily #3 in the pecking order.


The reason Zimmer is behind Appel and Gausman is because he is not as close to contributing at the major league level as they are. Appel could be in the majors within two seasons and Gausman could be up within three.

Zimmer likely won't accomplish that and it has nothing to do with his ability to hit triple-digits with his fastball or that plus curve he can throw. The issue is that he started off as an infielder and switched to pitching because he was better at it (IMO). He's still going to need some time to develop and thankfully he has the mental tools and makeup to handle constructive criticism well - that's the only reason why he's been able to have the success he's had in such a short period of time on the mound.

His secondary pitches also aren't as far along as Appel's and Gausman's are and that's because he hasn't spent as much time refining them because he hasn't been a pitcher as long as they have.

I don't doubt his talent but when you're picking in the top four or five of the draft then you're going to select a player that can help you at the big league level sooner rather than later.

I do see Zimmer going in the top 12 though.

#16 JeremyStrain

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Posted 23 May 2012 - 10:47 AM

Curious as to why some of you guys think Appel and Gausman are clearly ahead of Zimmer. Zimmer is :

1. 20 years old (4 months younger than Appel, 9 months younger than Gausman)
2. Athletic (former infielder)
3. throws 94-96
4. has a hammer curve
5. is said to have the makings of a good changeup
6. has numbers comparable to the other two this year


Zimmer has been mentioned as a possible #1 overall selection. Not saying he's better than the other two but I don't see where he's necesarily #3 in the pecking order.


I've only watched him throw myself twice and he was so-so for me. Flashes of good, flashes of bad, and a couple other guys I've talked to said the same thing, that he's a great top 10 prospect, but liked him a lot more in the 5-10 range than 1-5. There is still some projection involved with him, he's not quite as polished as the other two, definitely has skills though. I'd want that change to be more developed by now to put him ahead of the other 2 or Giolito, risk he could end up a 2 pitch guy. It's not a knock on his abilities overall, just comparing him straight up to the other guys, I'd take the other 3 over him. Like Zunino, if we are talking about picking in the 6-8 range I'd probably be all over him, but there are others I'd take before him.
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#17 LanceRinker

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Posted 23 May 2012 - 10:51 AM

But Wieters is who he is because of the offensive skills on top of the other two. There were actually concerns his defense wouldn't be THAT great in the pros, he really worked on it. You can get guys that are great defensively with good mental make up in the 6-10th rounds. He does have a good well rounded game, I just don't see him better than a couple other guys at #4, if we are talking like 7th, I'd probably jump all over him there.



True - Wieters was expected to be Mauer with power, so I get that.

However, the O's other options with the #4 pick (assuming that Gausman, Appel and Buxton are off the board) are Zunino and Correa if they want a position player or Kyle Zimmer if they want the best available arm at that point.

I don't see them taking Correa, even though he'd be the BPA (IMO) because where would they play him?

Zunino and Zimmer would be the best options for them. Zimmer is at least four or five seasons away when drafted and Zunino is probably four seasons away, maybe three if his bat develops incredibly well in the minors.

I guess it's just a matter of do you expect to sign Wieters long-term or do you expect him to hold up long-term behind the plate for the duration of his career, or the following four or five seasons after this draft. For me, I feel like having one of the best catching prospects in your system again is more important than a potential #2/3 starter in Zimmer (who wasn't even a pitcher first).

#18 LanceRinker

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Posted 23 May 2012 - 10:53 AM

I've only watched him throw myself twice and he was so-so for me. Flashes of good, flashes of bad, and a couple other guys I've talked to said the same thing, that he's a great top 10 prospect, but liked him a lot more in the 5-10 range than 1-5. There is still some projection involved with him, he's not quite as polished as the other two, definitely has skills though. I'd want that change to be more developed by now to put him ahead of the other 2 or Giolito, risk he could end up a 2 pitch guy. It's not a knock on his abilities overall, just comparing him straight up to the other guys, I'd take the other 3 over him. Like Zunino, if we are talking about picking in the 6-8 range I'd probably be all over him, but there are others I'd take before him.


Those are my feelings on Zimmer as well - great, projectable talent but he could very well end up as a two pitch guy (fastball & curve) which means he'd be a bullpen guy - likely a set up man if all went well. Not worth a top five pick if that's the best you could realistically hope for.

#19 JeremyStrain

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Posted 23 May 2012 - 11:16 AM


But Wieters is who he is because of the offensive skills on top of the other two. There were actually concerns his defense wouldn't be THAT great in the pros, he really worked on it. You can get guys that are great defensively with good mental make up in the 6-10th rounds. He does have a good well rounded game, I just don't see him better than a couple other guys at #4, if we are talking like 7th, I'd probably jump all over him there.



True - Wieters was expected to be Mauer with power, so I get that.

However, the O's other options with the #4 pick (assuming that Gausman, Appel and Buxton are off the board) are Zunino and Correa if they want a position player or Kyle Zimmer if they want the best available arm at that point.

I don't see them taking Correa, even though he'd be the BPA (IMO) because where would they play him?

Zunino and Zimmer would be the best options for them. Zimmer is at least four or five seasons away when drafted and Zunino is probably four seasons away, maybe three if his bat develops incredibly well in the minors.

I guess it's just a matter of do you expect to sign Wieters long-term or do you expect him to hold up long-term behind the plate for the duration of his career, or the following four or five seasons after this draft. For me, I feel like having one of the best catching prospects in your system again is more important than a potential #2/3 starter in Zimmer (who wasn't even a pitcher first).


With Correa, he's going straight to 3B from what I hear, so where to play him isn't an issue, and even if it was, if he's the best player, you take him and figure it out in a couple years when he's ready. He's a HS player so he's a waaays off anyway things will change by then. Look at the Nats with Rendon, they wanted to lock Zim up long term, wanted Rendon at 3B and took him anyway, and he is way closer to the ML than Correa would be.

Zimmer is more like 3 seasons away, he's got 2 years of college under his belt, a normal HS prospect is 4-5 years off. I think Appel is most ML ready, with Gausman right behind him, and Stroman as a starter after that. If he's a RP, I think Stroman is ML ready next season. Zunino is probably 3-4 away himself, figuring in catching/calling the pro game. But like you said maybe MW is leaving by then, you never know.

I personally would take Giolito over both, and Stroman over Zimmer. The only bad thing anyone can say about Stroman is his size, and I just have a gut feeling he overcomes it. I've seen his stuff though, and it's ML stuff without a doubt.
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#20 LanceRinker

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Posted 23 May 2012 - 05:41 PM

With Correa, he's going straight to 3B from what I hear, so where to play him isn't an issue, and even if it was, if he's the best player, you take him and figure it out in a couple years when he's ready. He's a HS player so he's a waaays off anyway things will change by then. Look at the Nats with Rendon, they wanted to lock Zim up long term, wanted Rendon at 3B and took him anyway, and he is way closer to the ML than Correa would be.

Zimmer is more like 3 seasons away, he's got 2 years of college under his belt, a normal HS prospect is 4-5 years off. I think Appel is most ML ready, with Gausman right behind him, and Stroman as a starter after that. If he's a RP, I think Stroman is ML ready next season. Zunino is probably 3-4 away himself, figuring in catching/calling the pro game. But like you said maybe MW is leaving by then, you never know.

I personally would take Giolito over both, and Stroman over Zimmer. The only bad thing anyone can say about Stroman is his size, and I just have a gut feeling he overcomes it. I've seen his stuff though, and it's ML stuff without a doubt.


You think Zimmer is only about three seasons away? I'm not doubting his talent but he'll need to spend some serious time refining his secondary pitches if he doesn't want to get stuck in the bullpen.

Then again, college pitchers are almost always no more than three seasons away than anyone else so you're very well likely right in your assessment there.

Giolito is an interesting case to me because of two factors: his injury and the fact that he could simply choose to go to school if a team is not willing to go high overslot for him. Not saying he'd turn down around $4 million, but teams would probably be more reluctant to do so if it severely impacts the quality of the players they could take in the following 9 rounds or so.

I have a feeling if he falls out of the top 10 and doesn't garner the money he could get if he goes to school and comes back in two years then he's likely not to sign. Too big of a risk for me with the new rules in place.

I'm starting to come around on Stroman though - I wouldn't mind if the O's took him with the #4 pick if Gausman and Appel are both off the board.

Aside from Stroman's amazing attitude and willing to do what it takes, there's this:

Fastball: 92-97 mph
Slider: 79-87 mph
Changeup: 78-84 mph
Cutter: 84-91 mph




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