101 replies to this topic

[Mackus]

I think the July/August numbers are low because of one long slump that spanned both months. Seems like he's been hitting fine for a week or two now, though I haven't checked the numbers.

[Matt_P]

Ugggh

 

http://www.cbssports...long-term-thing

[PatrickDougherty]

Ugggh

 

http://www.cbssports...long-term-thing

pls no

[Mackus]

Yeah right, I don't believe a single word in this article.  There is zero change Cruz is considering an extension before hitting the market.  I think the O's would be interested in bringing him back, but I'm sure Cruz wants and thinks he can get more than they'd be willing to go right now.  3/$30-36M or so is probably the highest the O's would go, and I don't think that'd be the best investment. 

[dude]

I know this comment will get push-back.....but I don't think it's a lock Cruz gets a QO.

 

He's likely to have a similar market and issues as last year.  He blasted the first couple of months, but he's been below average in June, July and August.  He really needs a big month in SEP and the playoffs to secure anything close to his his APR/MAY value.

 

Are teams so confused by his numbers they are willing to overlook the last 4 months (if he doesn't finish strong) versus the first 2 months of the season? 

 

He's already 34....I don't see more than 3 years from anyone....if the QO is tied to him....there's a significant risk he winds up right where he was last season.....looking for a deal that's not out there.  It won't be the Yankees or Dodgers.  Won't be Boston.  Not Detroit. How much money will Texas have left?  I think the Mariners are probably the best option for him.....but where's the competition to make them give up >15M per on a multi-year deal.

 

I know nobody has accepted a QO yet, but after the last 2 offseasons and watching a bunch of guys getting frozen out of the market....everyone blaming it on the QO (BS...but whatever).....I think teams are going to seriously consider whether their players will start accepting.  

 

If Katz starts talking about how much he loves it in Baltimore (, etc) and the opportunity is more important than a multi-year deal....then you could have a condition where Cruz just takes his 15M rather than waiting out the market like last year.....because I'm confident he doesn't want a repeat of last year.

 

Have the Orioles EVER been aggressive in contract discussions?  They rejected and non-tendered Reynolds after some significant success.....they trade Jim Johnson rather than get stuck with something they didn't want.

 

You start adding up the cost consequences of Cruz, Hardy, Markakis accepting a QO.....and I find it really unlikely the Orioles are willing to go to that total cost.....ESPECIALLY in light of the MASN challenges.

 

Personally.....I think (today) that they will offer and he wouldn't accept.....but I'd put that at 75%, not 99%.

 

If the Orioles had a different approach to resourcing and MASN was leveraged without issues, I think you bump that percentage up significantly (like 99%)....but there's nothing about the way the Orioles operate that suggest even Cruz is a QO lock today.

 

I'd handicap a QO offer something like.... 

Cruz 75%

Hardy 20%

Markakis 2%

[mweb08]

Hardy is just about a lock to get a qualifying offer. Cruz is quite likely to get one too.

[bnickle]

As I've said a lot, Hardy  was always getting a QO.


He was more likely than Cruz to get a QO in June when he was struggling and Cruz was raking.


Cruz is still likely to get one as well. It's a one year commitment and the Os will still fancy themselves a contender next year and will want that .800+ OPS RH power bat.

[dude]

I get why some think it makes sense......but the Orioles have zero history of going where you're going.

 

Start adding up next years commitments if Hardy and Cruz accept QOs and you are closing in on 120M (40man) and you non-tendered DeAza (ARB3), Hunter (ARB3) and Matusz (ARB2**) and you still need to solve RF and leadoff.

 

The Orioles may let them walk to FA, check out costs and see if they can afford them coming back if their market doesn't pan out...

 

hey....maybe they'll boldly commit to boldly spending significantly more than they've ever spent in the face of all of the MASN disputes.  If it's not over (even if it's eventually resolved in the Orioles favor)....you may have to make those type of commitments before resolution.

 

What if Angelos drives the payroll back under 100M? .....you are at 92M for the 25 after the other 15 guys on the 40.

 

 

** I know it's his 3rd year of ARB, I refer to Super2 as ARB0 to be consistent with non-Super2s

[mweb08]

In the case of at least Hardy, I don't think it matters what payroll the O's want next year because he's not likely to accept the QO, and even if he does, they'll be able to trade him if they want.<br />

[dude]

In the case of at least Hardy, I don't think it matters what payroll the O's want next year because he's not likely to accept the QO, and even if he does, they'll be able to trade him if they want.<br />

 

....except that position ignores both the demand for SS on the market (not much) and the supply (much, in both FA and trade).

 

.....and when was the last time the Orioles took financial risk to work it out later.  They may do it with Reimold for 1M or Bergesen for 1.1M, but I don't see them blowing up the payroll at 15M per.  The Orioles aren't going to add 5M to his contract to move it.....and there will be cheaper options for anyone looking for a SS.

 

Not really a 'now' issue, so we'll see after the WS parade, who knows, maybe Hardy is willing to sacrifice his next contract so the Orioles can get a draft pick.  I'd guess he'd rather go into Christmas with a 1/15 as an Oriole than wait out the market into March.

[mweb08]

It doesn't ignore that stuff. It's still an easy call factoring in everything. I think there's a good chance the O's sign him before it comes to a QO decision, but if they don't, I'd be very surprised if one isn't offered for a player that is worth that kind of money, fills a team need, and is a favorite of Buck's.

[SportsGuy]

Cruz isnt coming off a PED suspension like last offseason.

Both and Hardy likely only have 1 more 3-4 year deal in them and that's this offseason. They will get and turn down a QO.

It's an easy and obvious call for each side.

[dude]

It's an easy and obvious call for each side.

 

...of course you'd have said the same thing about Drew, Morales and Cruz last year also.

 

MARKET (ie context) >>> WAR

[Markus]

Was flipping around the channels and SC had the O's highlights on and the guy doing the voice over, during the Cruz homer, said the O's are possibly working on an extension for Cruz.

 

Does this ESPN-goober-talking-head (or whomever writes the copy or who is in his ear) know something or are they just speculating b/c of the year Cruz is having?

[SportsGuy]

...of course you'd have said the same thing about Drew, Morales and Cruz last year also.
 
MARKET (ie context) >>> WAR

Cruz was coming off a PED suspension. It's different and why you keep bringing it up is beyond me.

Morales is a one dimensional player who has had several big injuries..He's basically an AL only player...Drew has also had big injuries.

Also, some of these guys also felt they would get bigger deals and turned some deals down.

Hardy is obviously going to get a longer term deal and Cruz is highly likely to receive one after bouncing back from the suspension and having a good year.

[SportsGuy]

Was flipping around the channels and SC had the O's highlights on and the guy doing the voice over, during the Cruz homer, said the O's are possibly working on an extension for Cruz.
 
Does this ESPN-goober-talking-head (or whomever writes the copy or who is in his ear) know something or are they just speculating b/c of the year Cruz is having?

Click back a page.

[SportsGuy]

Cruz was coming off a PED suspension. It's different and why you keep bringing it up is beyond me.
Morales is a one dimensional player who has had several big injuries..He's basically an AL only player...Drew has also had big injuries.
Also, some of these guys also felt they would get bigger deals and turned some deals down.
Hardy is obviously going to get a longer term deal and Cruz is highly likely to receive one after bouncing back from the suspension and having a good year.

And btw, if they did accept the QO and you didn't want them, you could easily trade them.

[Matt_P]

...of course you'd have said the same thing about Drew, Morales and Cruz last year also.

 

MARKET (ie context) >>> WAR

 

Cruz, Kakes and Hardy are all better than Drew, Morales and Cruz were last year. Cruz struggled due to the PEDs suspension.

 

The Os need to offer them QOs in order to add an influx of talent. Sure would be an easier decision if we had the same resources that the Yankees have though.

[Mackus]

I don't know what I think is less likely, the Orioles not offering Cruz and Hardy a qualifying offer or Cruz and Hardy accepting a qualifying offer.

 

Remember, they don't get to go out and see what's out there before deciding to take or decline the offer.  It's take the offer or go see what you're worth.  I can't imagine either of them thinking 1/$15M-16M would end up being the best they can do.  Worst case is they find no takers and take something close to the qualifying offer.  Best case is they get 3-4 times the qualifying offer.  Absolutely a no brainer for both sides, IMO.

[Matt_P]

I don't know what I think is less likely, the Orioles not offering Cruz and Hardy a qualifying offer or Cruz and Hardy accepting a qualifying offer.

 

Remember, they don't get to go out and see what's out there before deciding to take or decline the offer.  It's take the offer or go see what you're worth.  I can't imagine either of them thinking 1/$15M-16M would end up being the best they can do.  Worst case is they find no takers and take something close to the qualifying offer.  Best case is they get 3-4 times the qualifying offer.  Absolutely a no brainer for both sides, IMO.

 

I could see the Os not offering the QO because they'd be afraid to spend the money. Sort of like the Pirates with A.J Burnett.