I just don't see it. 1/$15M would be perfectly reasonable for both of these guys, even preferable really. We're not gonna shift Manny to SS coming off of another injury, so another year of Hardy would be nice without having to pony up for 3-4 years of a long term deal even if it's slightly cheaper than $15M per year. Same for Cruz, we wouldn't want him for multiple years at $10M or more due to his age, but a 1/$15M deal for him wouldn't be a bad signing, maybe a couple million more than ideal, but still decent value. Having lost the top 2 picks this year, I think they'll want at least the chance of those compensation picks.
The risk really isn't that high in offering both of these guys qualifying offers, IMO.
I get the way you are looking at it...and in fact....that's largely the way i look at it....
....but what is there about the Orioles that makes you think they look at it that way?
They want to fit these guys into the budget at 8M, not 15M.
They didn't want Cruz for 14M last year.....with zero market HE TOOK 8M instead of waiting like Drew and Morales did. The cautionary tale for these type guys is that waiting until after the draft doesn't pay.
The demand for SSs next year is low (lack of need) and the supply is high (both FA and trade)....that's not a market to go looking for 3/36 with a QO tied to you....because you'll be the only one that costs a 1st.
Markakis is probably looking at a FA deal around 2/16.....if they offer him a QO, he takes it.
The Orioles aren't going big on Hardy....they'd probably like something in the 3/25 neighborhood....which may not be that unreasonable, given the market....but if you let him negotiate with 1/15 in the bag....then you probably are around 3/33 or 4/40.
MLBTR has their running FA Power Rankings.....Cruz is down to #10. #1 Scherzer is getting a QO. #2 Lester cannot get a QO. #3 Shields....yes. #4 Hanley gets a QO from LAD. #5 I'd suggest SF is bolder and makes Sandoval a QO.
....but after #6 (V-Mart)......I think a lot of teams will question whether they want to get stuck on 1/15, given the other options out there. A good SEP could push Cruz back up the list (to #5) where a QO is likely (and he rejects it)....but I don't get the impression that the Orioles value the draft picks at the sma level as the financial risk.
If this were the RedSox or Yankees....it's an easy call.
If the market was thin....and big market team demand was out there....easy call (non-Oriole)
.....but is it more likely (MASN!) we're operating on a 92M or a 122M payroll next year? That's just 2 QOs, not even 3.
There's lots of ways (trades, etc) to manage the end cost of the roster.....trading Wieters is one of the obvious ones.....trading Davis the other one......but the Orioles have been more in the management by non-tender or FA....rather than actively shaping their roster by trade.
Is there anything suggesting they have a different approach? I'm only suggesting these guys aren't the compensation locks several (many?) others believe.
We'll see....soon after the parade. 
