101 replies to this topic

[Matt_P]

A) given a number of factors, both Hardy and Cruz likely ACCEPT a QO.  There's almost no doubt about it at this point after watching the last 2 offseasons and the potential market for their services.

 

B ) If you want them at 15M.....ok.....but the larger issue you have is I seriously doubt the Orioles have ushered in a new era of 'going for it' with the pocketbook.

 

O's are still likely at or below 100M and you've significantly limited any opportunity to improve the roster.

 

Quick look right now is > 115M (Hardy and Cruz accept QO) with Hunter, Matusz, Norris and Patton.

 

If Cruz puts up a .900 OPS with 40 doubles and 35 home runs in 150 games and puts up his best offensive year since 2010 then he's not accepting a QO. See what happens but if he keeps this up then he'll refuse thet QO and still get paid. If Hardy puts up a .550 OPS then he's not receiving a QO.

 

If Hardy and Cruz do accept QOs then you can always trade them (provided they have decent years). The Os were able to trade Johnson making ten million so someone will take Cruz or Hardy at 1/15. You may not get a ton in return but you'll be able to get something.

 

I have the Os at about 125 if Cruz and Hardy accept QOs. Don't know if they'll go that high but they'll be able to figure something out.

[Mackus]

I think there is a very narrow window where either of these guys would have been good enough that we're interested in making a qualifying offer but not good enough that they think it's the best they can do and actually accept it.  Maybe players will react to what happened last offseason and be more willing to accept, and I do see the similarities between these guys and Drew and Morales, but until we see guys start to accept a one-year deal before even being able to negotiate with other teams, I doubt we see it happen often.

 

It's possible they accept, and again, I'd be fine with that assuming a certain level of 2014 production from each, but I don't think it's likely for either one of them, and certainly not for both to accept.

[JeffLong]

A) given a number of factors, both Hardy and Cruz likely ACCEPT a QO.  There's almost no doubt about it at this point after watching the last 2 offseasons and the potential market for their services.

 

B ) If you want them at 15M.....ok.....but the larger issue you have is I seriously doubt the Orioles have ushered in a new era of 'going for it' with the pocketbook.

 

O's are still likely at or below 100M and you've significantly limited any opportunity to improve the roster.

 

Quick look right now is > 115M (Hardy and Cruz accept QO) with Hunter, Matusz, Norris and Patton.

 

So there's a couple of things at play here.

 

Are they likely to get huge 4/$50M deals in free agency? No. But they could set their expecations lower and sign for 2/$24 or so and would likely take that over a QO. I think the problem for Drew & Morales (the bullet that Cruz dodged and looks smart now for doing so) was that Boras came in high (asking 4/$50M) and never wavering. His assumption being that eventually someone will pay them that.

 

THEN nobody did because they all set their budgets and had no use for multi year deals at $10M per. That's why non-Boras clients Santana and Cruz signed 1 year deals for less money, taking their lumps to live another day and aim lower / be more attainable for teams next offseason.

 

I don't think it's a shoe-in that Hard y& Cruz would accept, they'd just have to enter the FA market w/ realistic expectations.

 

 

The other HUGELY important thing here is that a marginal win for the O's is worth more than the rest of the league. As such, a QO for Hardy means he needs to provide maybe 1.5 fWAR (assuming $10M/ marginal win) to be worth a QO. Same goes for Cruz.

 

The $/WAR curve isn't linear folks, and the O's are right on up there at the very tippy top of it, hoping to squeeze out a few tenths of a win from Josh Stinson. Let's not forget that.

[PatrickDougherty]

So there's a couple of things at play here.

 

Are they likely to get huge 4/$50M deals in free agency? No. But they could set their expecations lower and sign for 2/$24 or so and would likely take that over a QO. I think the problem for Drew & Morales (the bullet that Cruz dodged and looks smart now for doing so) was that Boras came in high (asking 4/$50M) and never wavering. His assumption being that eventually someone will pay them that.

 

THEN nobody did because they all set their budgets and had no use for multi year deals at $10M per. That's why non-Boras clients Santana and Cruz signed 1 year deals for less money, taking their lumps to live another day and aim lower / be more attainable for teams next offseason.

 

I don't think it's a shoe-in that Hard y& Cruz would accept, they'd just have to enter the FA market w/ realistic expectations.

 

 

The other HUGELY important thing here is that a marginal win for the O's is worth more than the rest of the league. As such, a QO for Hardy means he needs to provide maybe 1.5 fWAR (assuming $10M/ marginal win) to be worth a QO. Same goes for Cruz.

 

The $/WAR curve isn't linear folks, and the O's are right on up there at the very tippy top of it, hoping to squeeze out a few tenths of a win from Josh Stinson. Let's not forget that.

I agree that expectations of the players are going to determine QO accepts/declines, and the season has to play out before we know whether it's worthwhile to even offer a QO.

 

But, uh, no it's not. The Yankees and Red Sox are also trying to hit the 90-ish-win point for maximum revenue per win, and every win in NY and Boston are worth way more than the corresponding win is in Baltimore. Just because Baltimore is farther along (we assume, they could end up .500 this season) that marginal revenue curve than teams like Arizona or San Diego doesn't mean their wins are worth more than major markets. Heck, a the 80th win in New York might be worth as much as the 90th win in Baltimore.

 

Also, the cost of a marginal win on the free agent market might be $7-10M but the revenue gained from that marginal win is likely not. Yes, the Orioles are trying to get to the 90-ish-win apex of the marginal revenue/win curve, but that's still not a $10M game. Older, not market-specific, etc. link showing the most valuable win on average is worth less than $4.5M.

[Matt_P]

Also, the cost of a marginal win on the free agent market might be $7-10M but the revenue gained from that marginal win is likely not. Yes, the Orioles are trying to get to the 90-ish-win apex of the marginal revenue/win curve, but that's still not a $10M game. Older, not market-specific, etc. link showing the most valuable win on average is worth less than $4.5M.

 

The key word in this paragraph is older. I wouldn't compare the value of the 90th win in 2005 to the cost of a win in 2013 or 2014.

 

But the cost of a free agent win in 2005 according to Lew Pollis was 3.9M. If the value of the 90th win was $4.5M in 2005 then that would indicate that the revenue received from the 90th win is more than the cost of a free agent win. This reasoning rellies on a number of assumptions but is most likely to be accurate.

[JeffLong]

The key word in this paragraph is older. I wouldn't compare the value of the 90th win in 2005 to the cost of a win in 2013 or 2014.

 

But the cost of a free agent win in 2005 according to Lew Pollis was 3.9M. If the value of the 90th win was $4.5M in 2005 then that would indicate that the revenue received from the 90th win is more than the cost of a free agent win. This reasoning rellies on a number of assumptions but is most likely to be accurate.

 

I'm talking on field only, not revenue drivers, etc. Obviously market size dictates total value of a win.

[fan4life]

I'm perfectly content with letting him play out the year and then make a qualifying offer.  Same with Hardy.

 

Assuming typical seasons from both, I'd be perfectly happy with either back on a 1/$15M type deal, if they accept.  I'm not very interested in a 3/$36M - 4/$60M range deal for either, but would also happily take the comp pick for either if they get that type of deal elsewhere.

 

I think we're in a very enviable position with both of those guys, and wouldn't even remotely consider an extension for either unless the prices are much lower than I think it would take to keep them from hitting the market.  I think a below-market deal is possible with JJ, but not with Cruz.  He'll wanna cash in after taking his lumps, financially, this season.

 

Can you explain the qualifying offer situation? You don't have to match the same deal being offered by another club?

[DJ MC]

Can you explain the qualifying offer situation? You don't have to match the same deal being offered by another club?

 

No.

 

In this case, you make the qualifying offer to a player. They can either accept the offer, which gives them a one-year contract at the given salary (the average of the top 125 salaries in the previous season), or they can decline, which means that team receives the first (or highest-available) pick in the following draft from the team that signs him.

[JeffLong]

No.

 

In this case, you make the qualifying offer to a player. They can either accept the offer, which gives them a one-year contract at the given salary (the average of the top 125 salaries in the previous season), or they can decline, which means that team receives the first (or highest-available) pick in the following draft from the team that signs him.

 

Expanding on this - QO this past offseason was $14.1 Million. Next season it will likely be ~ $15.2 Million or so. Maybe a bit less.

[BSLChrisStoner]

MASN: A look at how Cruz's start compares with Davis' start last year
http://www.masnsport...is-in-2013.html

[Mackus]

It's not remotely close, Steve.  Cruz is having a great month, but nothing earth-shattering.  A 965 OPS over a month probably happens 200 times a season.  An 1140 OPS over a month probably happens 25 times or so, it's a much higher level of performance.

 

Maybe I'm way off on how rare those respective levels of production occur throughout MLB, but Cruz' great start is a clear step or two down from Davis' start last season.  Hell, Wieters has been nearly just as good as Cruz this season and nobody is comparing his start to Davis' last year.

[Oriole85]

@msimonespn #Orioles Nelson Cruz HR by hit location and pitch location

 

[SammyBirdland]

@msimonespn #Orioles Nelson Cruz HR by hit location and pitch location

 

 

 

 

Note to opposing pitchers:   Pitch him low/middle (but not too low)

[BSLChrisStoner]

CSN Baltimore: Cruz has bruised left hand after being hit

http://www.csnbaltim...after-being-hit

[Oriole85]

@Orioles Nelson Cruz has been named AL Player of the Week (5/26-6/1) after batting .476/.556/1.190 with 4 HR and 8 RBI. #Cruuuuuz #Orioles

[Russ]

@Orioles Nelson Cruz has been named AL Player of the Week (5/26-6/1) after batting .476/.556/1.190 with 4 HR and 8 RBI. #Cruuuuuz #Orioles

Wow. That's a solid week right there.

[fishteacher]

Cruz is pretty one-dimensional as a player but we should get at least a .260 average and .310ish OBP out of him while we enjoy 25 to 30 home runs. 

I think we'll enjoy those 25-30 HRs before the break....and his average is SLIGHTLY higher than your projected .260...I just hope he's still not hopped up on roids?

[bnickle]

I think we'll enjoy those 25-30 HRs before the break....and his average is SLIGHTLY higher than your projected .260...I just hope he's still not hopped up on roids?

Correction. I just hope he doesn't get caught if he is hopped up on roids.

[Oriole85]

@EddieInTheYard #Jays 1B Edwin Encarnacion wins AL Player of the Month over #Orioles OF Nelson Cruz.

[Oriole85]

What does everyone think of Cruz decision to stretch the double into a triple? I think we all know what he was thinking -- I'll never get a chance for the cycle again so why not try it? It ends up being a fairly close play, which partially justifies his decision. However, it's not exactly like the game was over especially being at Fenway. It didn't end up mattering but I'd imagine if the Red Sox had comeback and won the game, we'd be talking about this more.

 

I can't decide how I feel about this. I went both ways last night and even this AM.

 

Thoughts?