802 replies to this topic

[JeffLong]

ESPN The Magazine Manny Machado's big night

http://espn.go.com/m...2-espn-magazine

That article is awesome. The video in case anyone is feeling nostalgic: http://mlb.mlb.com/v... ... 721903&v=3

DJ - I need to do that. Usually I worry about getting younger players' jerseys but it seems 13 is Manny's for life.

What color did you go with? I'm thinking orange to go with the Black Jones & 2012 ASG Wieters I have.

[Mackus]

I certainly wouldn't tell anyone else to not make any projections for Manny going forward, but I'm not going to put any thought into what I expect from Manny or what would be acceptable production. I'm just going to watch him play everyday and enjoy what he does. When is the last time the O's had a 21 year-old hold a position every day? This is going to be exciting to watch.

[BSLChrisStoner]

A prospective extension for Machado (similar to what Longoria originally signed with Tampa Bay) was discussed in tonight's posted 'Bird Talk.'

Do you think such an extension should be a priority for the O's? What contract would you offer?

[SportsGuy]

A prospective extension for Machado (similar to what Longoria originally signed with Tampa Bay) was discussed in tonight's posted 'Bird Talk.'

Do you think such an extension should be a priority for the O's?

Sure...it's not much of a gamble...would want 2 of his free agency years locked up and an option for a third.

[JeffLong]

Haven't been able to listen to Bird Talk yet, but I don't think this is even remotely possible at this point.

I'd imagine Machado will want to be paid based on being a SS defensively, whereas the O's would insist that he's a 3B.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Sure...it's not much of a gamble...would want 2 of his free agency years locked up and an option for a third.

Yeah, I agree with this. I don't really see any reason from the O's perspective that you would not pursue this now. It will only get progressively more expensive, as time goes.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Haven't been able to listen to Bird Talk yet, but I don't think this is even remotely possible at this point. I'd imagine Machado will want to be paid based on being a SS defensively, whereas the O's would insist that he's a 3B.

I don't know how much merit this has. I would agree if Machado was a pending FA, but with him being years away from arbitration; this would represent a significant increase of salary now. Even if he gave back the first year or two of his FA, he'd obviously still hit the FA market young enough for another long-term contract.

[JeffLong]

I don't know how much merit this has. I would agree if Machado was a pending FA, but with him being years away from arbitration; this would represent a significant increase of salary now. Even if he gave back the first year or two of his FA, he'd obviously still hit the FA market young enough for another long-term contract.

I would disagree. The pre-arb years for him as a SS are going to cost more than they will with him as a 3B. His arbitration years will cost more for him being a SS than him being a 3B.

Evan Longoria & Troy Tulowitzki both signed extensions in '08 with less than 2 years of ML experience.

Longoria's contract: 6 years / $17.5 Million (with 2 options)
Tulowitzki's contract: 6 years / $31 Million (with 1 option)

Tulo had put up better numbers than Machado in more playing time, but that was also 5 years ago so that would likely be a starting point.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I would disagree. The pre-arb years for him as a SS are going to cost more than they will with him as a 3B. His arbitration years will cost more for him being a SS than him being a 3B.

Evan Longoria & Troy Tulowitzki both signed extensions in '08 with less than 2 years of ML experience.

Longoria's contract: 6 years / $17.5 Million (with 2 options)
Tulowitzki's contract: 6 years / $31 Million (with 1 option)

Tulo had put up better numbers than Machado in more playing time, but that was also 5 years ago so that would likely be a starting point.

I believe Tulowitzki signed his extension after his first full year in the bigs ( a year where he had 609 ab's, and a .838 OPS). Longoria debuted April 12th, 2008 and signed his initial extension a week later.

I think the fact that Tulowitzki was a known SS, and Longoria was a known 3rd baseman might have impacted the extensions received, but so did the fact that Tulowitzki had a year of ML production, and Longoria did not.

I think if the O's offered Longoria's initial extension today, Machado would have a lot of difficultly turning it down.
The minimum salary is now $480k. $480k times 3 yrs = $1.44M. If he signed a Longoria esque deal, he'd make about $8.75M over the next 3 years.

$8.75M - $1.44 = $7.31M. That is a lot of money to turn down now, even though he could make it back later.

If I were the O's though, I wouldn't be opposed to paying the average of the Longoria and Tulowitzki contracts.

[LanceRinker]

As I said during the show, I'm all for the O's locking Machado up as long as we can get a team option for his first year or two of free agency. I think the starting point would certainly be in the Tulo range though as far as money is concerned.

[BobPhelan]

I'm fine with it but not sure how realistic it is at this point. I'd wait until before his first year of arbitration and try to buy out at least two years of FA eligibility.

[SportsGuy]

I would disagree. The pre-arb years for him as a SS are going to cost more than they will with him as a 3B. His arbitration years will cost more for him being a SS than him being a 3B.

Evan Longoria & Troy Tulowitzki both signed extensions in '08 with less than 2 years of ML experience.

Longoria's contract: 6 years / $17.5 Million (with 2 options)
Tulowitzki's contract: 6 years / $31 Million (with 1 option)

Tulo had put up better numbers than Machado in more playing time, but that was also 5 years ago so that would likely be a starting point.

Position doesn't start to really matter until free agency.

Mannys positional status isn't going to stop him from signing anything.

The only thing that will stop him is if he wants to do it this early as opposed to waiting a few years to get more established so that his free agency years can be higher.

[JeffLong]

Position doesn't start to really matter until free agency.

Mannys positional status isn't going to stop him from signing anything.

The only thing that will stop him is if he wants to do it this early as opposed to waiting a few years to get more established so that his free agency years can be higher.

That's not accurate. As Chris pointed out, Tulo's deal was impacted partially by performance, but also by position.

Machado will likely want to start discussions in the Tulo range (6/30) while the O's would undoubtedly look at Longo's contract as a starting point. That's where I think the issue is.

[SportsGuy]

That's not accurate. As Chris pointed out, Tulo's deal was impacted partially by performance, but also by position.

Machado will likely want to start discussions in the Tulo range (6/30) while the O's would undoubtedly look at Longo's contract as a starting point. That's where I think the issue is.

Good third baseman are becoming as scarce as good SS. Longo signed his deal earlier, thus the difference.

End of the day, there is very little difference in money here no matter how you look at it. The key is locking up at least 2 free agency years. Also, I think he will be a super 2 guy, so you will have to factor that in(that could have also been a difference in Tulo vs Longo).

[FlavaDave10]

I would disagree. The pre-arb years for him as a SS are going to cost more than they will with him as a 3B. His arbitration years will cost more for him being a SS than him being a 3B.

Evan Longoria & Troy Tulowitzki both signed extensions in '08 with less than 2 years of ML experience.

Longoria's contract: 6 years / $17.5 Million (with 2 options)
Tulowitzki's contract: 6 years / $31 Million (with 1 option)

Tulo had put up better numbers than Machado in more playing time, but that was also 5 years ago so that would likely be a starting point.

Longoria signed his within the first two weeks of being called up, didn't he? I would think that a Machado extension would at the very least equal Tulowitzki's. I'm all for locking him up.

Something else to consider: Pretty sure he won't be making the league minimum for the next two years thanks to whatever the heck we paid him when we drafted him.

[Mackus]

I'd be open to a Longoria-esque contract for Machado, though I don't think they'll take that approach. Nor do I know if Machado would want to sign away his first couple FA years for some more security on the front end. He got a ~$6M signing bonus, so he's got a ton in the bank already, so he could roll the dice a little bit in hopes of getting to free agency sooner. He'll be entering his Age 26 season when he hits FA, so he could be looking at an amazingly huge deal if he lives up to his potential.

[SportsGuy]

I'd be open to a Longoria-esque contract for Machado, though I don't think they'll take that approach. Nor do I know if Machado would want to sign away his first couple FA years for some more security on the front end. He got a ~$6M signing bonus, so he's got a ton in the bank already, so he could roll the dice a little bit in hopes of getting to free agency sooner. He'll be entering his Age 26 season when he hits FA, so he could be looking at an amazingly huge deal if he lives up to his potential.

So, he hits free agency at age 28 and already has 40-60M in his pocket.

There is a lot more reason for him to sign a contract vs not signing it.

[JeffLong]

So, he hits free agency at age 28 and already has 40-60M in his pocket.

There is a lot more reason for him to sign a contract vs not signing it.

Sports Guy, why wouldn't he follow the model set by Tulo?

He's set to make $190 Million over the course of his career (at least 2007 - 2020). So that would seem a good model to follow if he wants to maximize his earnings. I'd rather gamble in Arbitration though, then accept a $20 Million deal now because I'd bet he makes more than that if he performs the way he did this past season.

[Mackus]

So, he hits free agency at age 28 and already has 40-60M in his pocket.

There is a lot more reason for him to sign a contract vs not signing it.

There are certainly valid reasons for signing that type of a deal. But undoubtedly the higher potential earnings are available by going year-to-year (or a locked in extension that doesn't buy out any FA years). The extension would have far more guaranteed money and lower financial risk than year-to-year, but I think we can all understand a 20-year old kid with the type of talents that Manny has being willing to gamble on himself in this sort of a scenario.

I feel similarly about this to how I do with Wieters. I think it's certainly in the Orioles benefit to get extensions done with both of these guys that buy out 2-3 years of free agency, but I don't expect either guy to be too eager to do that for the reasons I've stated. So even if we are able to reach a deal to lock in some of those free agent years, I don't think it will seem like much of a discount (obviously moreso for Wieters, since he's closer to FA). Still, Duke and the front office should certainly be looking into an extension with Wieters. With Machado, it'd be a proactive thing to do, but there is still tons of time left to do it in the future, so I don't think it'd be a flat out mistake not to pursue that at this point. It is something I would be in favor of pursuing, though.

[SportsGuy]

There are certainly valid reasons for signing that type of a deal. But undoubtedly the higher potential earnings are available by going year-to-year (or a locked in extension that doesn't buy out any FA years). The extension would have far more guaranteed money and lower financial risk than year-to-year, but I think we can all understand a 20-year old kid with the type of talents that Manny has being willing to gamble on himself in this sort of a scenario.

I feel similarly about this to how I do with Wieters. I think it's certainly in the Orioles benefit to get extensions done with both of these guys that buy out 2-3 years of free agency, but I don't expect either guy to be too eager to do that for the reasons I've stated. So even if we are able to reach a deal to lock in some of those free agent years, I don't think it will seem like much of a discount (obviously moreso for Wieters, since he's closer to FA). Still, Duke and the front office should certainly be looking into an extension with Wieters. With Machado, it'd be a proactive thing to do, but there is still tons of time left to do it in the future, so I don't think it'd be a flat out mistake not to pursue that at this point. It is something I would be in favor of pursuing, though.

If he gets a severe injury, he gets nothing.

He could still sign a 200+ million dollar contract at age 28.

If he turns down a deal, it would be a monster gamble..and a pretty dumb one at that.