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Manny Machado


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#81 Mackus

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Posted 02 January 2013 - 03:42 PM

If he gets a severe injury, he gets nothing.

He could still sign a 200+ million dollar contract at age 28.

If he turns down a deal, it would be a monster gamble..and a pretty dumb one at that.

There aren't really severe injuries for hitters that would take him from millions to out of the league, like there can be for pitchers. Sure, there are some examples, like Rocco Baldelli, but it's far less common than pitchers. I do obviously agree that the safest route, that still pays him very well, is signing a deal that buys out a couple years of free agency, and he still can get a monster contract. But he'll be delaying that monster contract and not optimizing what he could earn if he just goes year-to-year and then hits FA as a 26 year-old.

It would depend on exactly what dollar figures the extension is for to see if it's a good gamble or not. If we go somewhere between Tulo and Longoria, then we're talking about $0.65M, $1M, $1.5M, $4M, $6M, $8M, maybe bumped up a bit for a few years worth of inflation, to cover his service time and then a discount on a couple years of free agent prices, let's say about $12M and $15M? Tulo signed for $10M and $15M, Longoria for $11M and $11.5M. So that would be a total of about 8/$48M. $21M via arbitration and $27M in the two free agency years.

If he goes year-to-year, he'll probably get near the minimum for his pre-arb years, so something like $550k, $600k, $650k, or about $1.75M over the three years. Through arb, he'll probably get something like $3.5M, $6.5M, and $10.25M (the $3.5M and $6.5M are very close to what Jones got in his Arb-1 and Arb-2 years). So that's about the same as the Longo/Tulo extensions locked them in for ($1M more in this estimate). If he's really, really good, then you'll see those arbitration numbers go through the roof and he can make maybe as much as double of that estimate.

It just depends on how much is the security worth to you or if you wanna roll the dice and try to make even more but without the guarantee. I could see him favoring either approach.

#82 Can_of_corn

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Posted 02 January 2013 - 03:48 PM

There aren't really severe injuries for hitters that would take him from millions to out of the league, like there can be for pitchers. Sure, there are some examples, like Rocco Baldelli, but it's far less common than pitchers. I do obviously agree that the safest route, that still pays him very well, is signing a deal that buys out a couple years of free agency, and he still can get a monster contract. But he'll be delaying that monster contract and not optimizing what he could earn if he just goes year-to-year and then hits FA as a 26 year-old.


What if his knee dislocation issue turns out to be reoccurring? I remember reading that there was a danger of that when it first happened.

Of course the bigger risk is that he never turns into an elite bat and he stays at third. A good bat with a very good (not willing to call him great yet) glove at third is valuable but far from invaluable.

Well I hear Linda Ronstadt is looking for a guitar player.


#83 Mackus

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Posted 02 January 2013 - 04:13 PM

What if his knee dislocation issue turns out to be reoccurring? I remember reading that there was a danger of that when it first happened.

Of course the bigger risk is that he never turns into an elite bat and he stays at third. A good bat with a very good (not willing to call him great yet) glove at third is valuable but far from invaluable.

Definitely things to consider. I'm not saying that it is a given that he would make more money through arbitration or that he'll be a superstar and get a massive contract at age 26. Just that it's undeniable that there is far more ceiling for earnings by going year-to-year (or even locking in without buying out FA years) than signing an extension now. It's just up to Manny whether that security is more important to him or the chance to maximize his earnings is more important. I don't think any of us can answer that for him, only can say what we would do in his place.

#84 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 07 January 2013 - 12:15 PM

BSL: 2013 Projections Manny Machado
http://baltimorespor...anny-machado-2/
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#85 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 09 March 2013 - 08:53 AM

Beyond the Boxscore: What could a full Machado season look like?
http://www.beyondthe...eason-look-like

#86 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 08:42 AM

PressBox: How will Machado perform in his first full season?
http://www.pressboxo...rst-Full-Season

#87 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 29 March 2013 - 10:26 AM

ESPN: O's believe in Machado
http://espn.go.com/m...n-manny-machado

#88 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 10 April 2013 - 06:39 AM

Baseball Prospectus: What's the matter with Machado?

http://www.baseballp...articleid=20169
 



#89 Mackus

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Posted 10 April 2013 - 07:41 AM

I think it's too early to say there is anything wrong with Machado, though it's ok to point out how he's been struggling as this article does and Jeremy had great points on yesterday.

 

If this past week's worth of games had occured in the middle of June with him having a 740 OPS up to that point, then it'd just be a mini slump and that's all the thought most people would give to it.  I think the freshness of the season and it being all we've seen make it seem like a bigger deal than it likely is.



#90 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 12 April 2013 - 08:27 AM

After his homer Wednesday night, Machado followed up with 3 hits (including a double) Thursday night.

 

Season: 10 for 39 (.256), 1 hr, 2 doubles, 4 rbi, 3 bb's, 6 k's, .694 OPS


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#91 FlavaDave10

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Posted 12 April 2013 - 12:39 PM

Loving his improved patience this year. Hopefully it continues to grow.


"We're not going to be f***ing suck this year" - Alex Ovechkin

 

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#92 SportsGuy

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Posted 29 April 2013 - 12:55 PM

Manny is easily the best fielding 3rd baseman, according to UZR, in the majors right now....Only Victorino has a higher UZR for any position.

 

http://www.fangraphs...lter=&players=0



#93 bnickle

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Posted 01 May 2013 - 12:57 AM

Such a good ball player and 20 yrs old. Wow. Has a chance to be our first superstar since Cal.



#94 You Play to Win the Game

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Posted 01 May 2013 - 01:06 AM

I agree. Pretty amazing to watch him be this good at such a young age.



#95 Mackus

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Posted 01 May 2013 - 04:50 AM

I expected a slight improvement over last year but what he's doing so far us simply incredible.

#96 McNulty

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Posted 01 May 2013 - 06:57 AM

I'm still hopeful the walk rate will approach 10% eventually. Very good start this year otherwise.

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#97 Tucker Blair

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Posted 01 May 2013 - 08:33 AM

Such a good ball player and 20 yrs old. Wow. Has a chance to be our first superstar since Cal.

I'm completely nitpicking, but Miguel Tejada was superstar status his first few years here lol
 

 

But it is amazing to watch someone grow so quickly. I think the walks will come soon, as you can see his approach at the plate is already advanced for his age and it will only get better as he gets more comfortable with the league. Really, really enjoying his career so far. Probably my favorite player I have followed through the minors yet.



#98 Adam Wolff

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Posted 01 May 2013 - 08:52 AM

Enjoyable article on Machado's defense:

 

http://espn.go.com/b...en-high-caliber


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#99 SportsGuy

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Posted 01 May 2013 - 10:12 AM

I'm still hopeful the walk rate will approach 10% eventually. Very good start this year otherwise.

Agreed...I do like how its up a little bit thus far this year compared to last year.  The more he hits and matures as a hitter, the more pitchers will be more careful with him.

 

He has proven he will take a walk, so I think this will come in time.

 

His ability to go the other way is very impressive....and maybe more than that, the understanding that he possesses, at such a young age, to see that going the other way is so beneficial to him, is just as impressive.

 

Pressley said Machado stays inside the ball as good or better than any young hitter he has ever seen...including Griffey Jr and Edgar. 



#100 SammyBirdland

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Posted 01 May 2013 - 11:10 AM

Manny's three pitch at-bat in the 6th inning yesterday was the worst I can remember seeing him get victimized in his career so far.  This just doesn't happen to him.
 
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¡Hasta la vista, pelota!




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