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BSL: Mussina Passes Every Hall of Fame Evaluation Method


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#41 DJ MC

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Posted 10 January 2014 - 07:43 PM

I didn't want to belabor this, but I really don't understand your approach to the comparison between Ryan and Mussina.

(I acknowledge your general support for Ryan)

 

It seems like in the 'new' metrics era we choose to parse things down and as you are doing in several spots look at per game or per season numbers in comparison.  That totaly ignores the totallity of what Ryan accomplished.  

 

You glossed over the fact that he was the hardest pitcher to get a hit off of OF ALL TIME...

...and it's not like he did that in some limited scope of innings.....he's 5th ALL TIME in innings Pitched

.....and he struck out A LOT more batters than any other pitcher EVER.

 

How do you look at those 3 stats and pretend that Mussina accomplished anything even remotely close.

 

Ryan (as Matt point out) had 7 no-hitters covering 3 decades (4-70s, 1-80s, 2-90s) including his last one at 44 years old.....Mussina was retired for 5 years and Ryan was throwing a no hitter.......and it wasn't just random, he dominated that season with 173 innings over 27 starts, a 2.91 ERA, and struck out over 200 guys.  

 

1st All-Time in no-hitters with 7 (next is Koufax with 4)

T-1st All-Time 1-hitters with 12

Threw 18 2-hitters.

He threw a more than a whole season of 0-1-2 hitters (37)

 

The guy was an absolute workhorse.  He started 41 games one year and pitched 333 innings striking out 367.  The year before he pitched 326 innings and struck out 383.  He struck out more than 300 guys 6 times.

He completed 222 games which was 1 out of every 3.5 starts, Mussina completed 57 games about one every 9 starts.

He threw 61 shutouts, Mussina 23.

 

....and when people say 'well he just did that because of his innings'......ok.....but you have to be good enough to keep getting the innings and be effective in those innings.  Could M8ussina pitched effectively for another 5-6-7 seasons or would he be getting crushed and Killing all his other numbers.  

 

If you get out (for whatever reasons) you can't really dog the other guy for sticking around and continuing to dominate when you don't have to take your other hand out of your pocket to count the number of guys in MLB HISTORY that could do it.

 

Ryan's longevity was unbelievable and he's at the top of the chart in being able to dominate a game.

Mussina can't touch either of those credentials and those are the ones that matter most.

 

Mussina was a really, really good pitcher and I think he gets voted into the HoF (I'll guess 3rd ballot) and their plaques will be the same size, but Mussina can't touch Ryan in their career accomplishments which IS what makes your HoF case.

 

You may be asked to turn in your Ryan gear. :)

 

also.....you said Mussina's ERA was better, I'm guessing you meant ERA+ (MM 123, NY 112), because Ryan is 245th all-time at 3.19 and MM is 575th all-time at 3.68.  Between the ages of 20 and 45, Ryan never posted an ERA over 4.00, MM ewas over 4.00 6 times. 

 

1. I didn't gloss over anything. I stated that he had the lowest H/9 rate in history. However, you're falling into the trap that hits are all that matters.

 

He's not in the top-1000 of MLB pitchers in career walk rate. And for all those hits he didn't give up, his career WHIP is 276th. Mussina is 127. While a walk and a hit are not equal, a baserunner is a baserunner, and allowing baserunners is not a good thing.

 

2. On that same track, Ryan's K/BB rate is 271 overall. Mussina is 15.

 

3. I look at more than just those three stats. Declaring that those three are all that matters would be like declaring that WAR is all that matters.

 

4. You are not taking those inning numbers in context. He did pitch 300+ innings a season...when there were 4-man rotations. Once baseball moved to a five-man rotation (which he worked in for about 2/3 of his career) he offered innings totals much closer to today's numbers. That's why his yearly average is still very close to what Mussina did (since Mussina was also a workhorse).

 

5. If you are going to wonder about hypotheticals, look at Ryan's numbers through 18 seasons. Even taking out his first, bonus-baby year in 1966, his overall numbers through the 1985 season (18 years) aren't necessarily impressive for a pitcher of his era. He may have made the Hall based on the strikeouts and the five no-hitters, but he wouldn't have been first-ballot.

 

6. Finally, I didn't say that Mussina's ERA was better. I said that he has an ERA advantage. They pitched in two different eras, so you have to take those into context.

 

I didn't think it was necessary to point that out.


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#42 dude

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Posted 10 January 2014 - 11:33 PM

1. I didn't gloss over anything. I stated that he had the lowest H/9 rate in history. However, you're falling into the trap that hits are all that matters.

 

He's not in the top-1000 of MLB pitchers in career walk rate. And for all those hits he didn't give up, his career WHIP is 276th. Mussina is 127. While a walk and a hit are not equal, a baserunner is a baserunner, and allowing baserunners is not a good thing.

 

 

3. I look at more than just those three stats. Declaring that those three are all that matters would be like declaring that WAR is all that matters.

 

4. You are not taking those inning numbers in context. He did pitch 300+ innings a season...when there were 4-man rotations. Once baseball moved to a five-man rotation (which he worked in for about 2/3 of his career) he offered innings totals much closer to today's numbers. That's why his yearly average is still very close to what Mussina did (since Mussina was also a workhorse).

 

5. If you are going to wonder about hypotheticals, look at Ryan's numbers through 18 seasons. Even taking out his first, bonus-baby year in 1966, his overall numbers through the 1985 season (18 years) aren't necessarily impressive for a pitcher of his era. He may have made the Hall based on the strikeouts and the five no-hitters, but he wouldn't have been first-ballot.

 

This will be my last post on this for now....we can disagree....I don't get it, but we can disagree.....

 

1)  You stated 

 

DJ MC, on 08 Jan 2014 - 19:06, said:

So even though he gave up the fewest H/9 in history, his WHIP is actually higher that Mussina's.

When you say "even though he gave up the fewest H/9 in history"......uh......he gave up the fewest H/9 IN HISTORY.  Like, in the history of MLB, he's given up the fewest H/9 of any pitcher in history.  I understand WHIP, but the point of going to the plate is and has always been to get a hit.  I get the emerging perspectives on OBP (and I agree with them), but when when you throw a baseball for 25+ years and you are the ALL-TIME LEADER in not allowing hits, I don't understand how you overlook the historical context of doing that.

 

I'm not suggesting Ryan is the best pitcher of All-Time, the record walks, the almost 300 Ls, the lack of Cy Young awards are all detractions from 'best pitcher' argument....in fact, it sort of disqualifies him from that discussion in some ways......but that's not the discussion.  Mussina doesn't own anything in the record books.

 

His out-of-control walk rates were really the first 11-ish years of his career, he certainly worked on 'control' and consistently lowered his walk rate and overall WHIP while maintaining the lower H/9 and the high K-rates.  That doesn't mean he (anyone) gets to ignore the facts, but it does show how he grew in the game as the walk-rate comes under scrutiny.

 

3) I didn't declare that is all that matters, but when you own MAJOR RECORDS in the MLB HISTORY BOOKS that has to be a primary consideration in the HoF and other discussions.

 

4) So serious question.....do you think Mussina could have carried anything close to the load Ryan did?  One of the things I always noted about Mussina's starts was the poorer performance when he when he had high pitch counts the previous game.  Certainly speculation on my part, but I really doubt MM could have thrived in the 4-man rotation.  Nothing really wrong with that, but I don't think you can discount the load the Ryan ACTUALLY carried.  Few pitchers in the modern area have done what he's done in terms of the load.  I guess you can say 'Phil Niekro', but certainly the knuckler allowed him to survive with the low stress. Top 3 are all early guys.

 

5) Again, I'm not sure why you're using an 18 year slice of his career to make a point.  His HoF credentials are based on his 25+ year performance.  Performance over those 25 years is one of the things that makes him the HoFer that he is and should be.  Voters voted on his career,  not 18 years of his career.  I guess if oyu wanted to do something like this.....why not hypothesize what Mussina's numbers would have looking like if he had tried to pitch another 6 or 7 years in MLB.....could he have maintained his career pace....he was pretty successful at 39 (first 20 year win season), but pretty clearly was slipping the 4 years before that.  Not a big secret, guys struggle more as they get older, Mussina likely would have been no different than the bulk of ML pitchers....but Ryan defied that and was rocking at 44 as a power pitcher. 

 

 

If Mussina won 40 more games, had 2 CYs he'd have probably made his first ballot.  Still had a great career.  I'd guess he'll be in the HoF on his 3rd ballot.  But he doesn't have the CAREER accomplishments that Ryan has.  

That's just an indisputable fact.  

That doesn't minimize Mussina's accomplishments.



#43 DJ MC

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Posted 11 January 2014 - 12:24 AM

That's just an indisputable fact.  

 

Except it isn't, because I did.

 

Ryan has great career accomplishments. Mussina has great career accomplishments. I think Mussina's make him the better pitcher, that's all.


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#44 dude

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Posted 11 January 2014 - 12:53 AM

Ryan has MLB Historical career accomplishments. Mussina had an excellent career. 

 

corrected. :)



#45 Moose Milligan

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Posted 12 January 2014 - 02:05 PM

I think he's a Hall of Famer, but I think a lot of this conversation stems from a subconscious desire to see him go into the HoF with hopefully an Oriole bird on his hat.  I think that if he were to enter the HoF with the NY on his hat, there'd be plenty of pissed off people here who ardently argued for his candidacy.  

 

Lots of really good posts in here, I've enjoyed reading this thread.  


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#46 SportsGuy

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Posted 12 January 2014 - 02:15 PM

I think he's a Hall of Famer, but I think a lot of this conversation stems from a subconscious desire to see him go into the HoF with hopefully an Oriole bird on his hat.  I think that if he were to enter the HoF with the NY on his hat, there'd be plenty of pissed off people here who ardently argued for his candidacy.  
 
Lots of really good posts in here, I've enjoyed reading this thread.  


He could go in with a picture of Hitler on his hat(which I guess is similar to a Yankee hat) and I would still think he is a no doubt about, first ballot HOFer.

#47 dude

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Posted 12 January 2014 - 02:31 PM

My brother and I were talking about this the other day and I meant to mention something ealier in this thread.

 

Whether it's fair or not, media perception has a lot to do with the ballot in general.

 

Does anyone believe Kirby Puckett is really a HoFer, let alone a 1st ballot guy?  Nothing against, him (because I liked him), but he had neither longevity (gross numbers) or dominance in his resume, but he had some moments and the media really liked the guy.

 

Moose certainly came off as aloof didn't really embrace the more public role that success at his level usually carries....so if you don't embrace the media role associated with success at the MLB level, there are some consequences in areas like this.  Not a discussion of right or wrong, just that it exists.

 

I think Mussina and Schilling get some pretty big jumps in the voting next year.  Both could get in on the 2016 ballot.



#48 mweb08

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Posted 12 January 2014 - 02:48 PM

Of course the media perception is a factor in this. That's not just related to how much they like a player either, it's related to how some influenced much of the rest of the media and the public into thinking someone is better or worse than their production merits. Their voting in awards also changes the perception down the line.

#49 DJ MC

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Posted 12 January 2014 - 03:06 PM

In Puckett's case, he was clearly on a Hall of Fame path. Even if he played five more years and averaged the 139 hits he had in the strike-shortened year, he would have finished with 2999. Plus he was considered a great defensive outfielder by reputation (six Gold Gloves) and received MVP votes in nine of his 12 seasons.

 

More importantly, he produced essentially up to the day he retired. He hit 23 homers and had a 130 OPS+ in 1995, hsi last season. That is opposed to, say, Don Mattingly, who retired at the same time and also for health reasons, but was finished as a star player after 1989.

 

So given where his trends were pointing, and the fact that the media and fans loved him, it isn't too hard to figure out how he got the love from the voters.


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#50 Moose Milligan

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Posted 12 January 2014 - 06:18 PM

He could go in with a picture of Hitler on his hat(which I guess is similar to a Yankee hat) and I would still think he is a no doubt about, first ballot HOFer.

 

I know, but you're usually able to separate emotion from the whole deal.



#51 SportsGuy

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Posted 12 January 2014 - 06:27 PM

I know, but you're usually able to separate emotion from the whole deal.


I certainly think some Os fans are saying no to him because he went to NY.

#52 aurelius

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Posted 16 January 2014 - 04:29 PM

Maybe someone mentioned this, but his personality is also a factor IMO. He was known as a guy with a nasty side and who could often be difficult to deal with in the media. Right or wrong, that has an effect. They are the same folks who cast HOF ballots. It's pure conjecture on my part, but I doubt he was very popular with teammates either. I heard one of his (orioles) pitching coaches say that he asked out of the game with the score tied in the 9th inning in what would have been his 20th win of the year.  Most pitchers would not do that, and it strikes people as very odd when it happens. There's other anecdotal stories about his dealings with fans. People who criticize him for that kind of stuff don't really know but it's out there on the fringes, and I think it has an effect.



#53 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 14 December 2014 - 09:55 PM

CSN Baltimore: Did Mussina have a HOF career?

http://www.csnbaltim...all-fame-career



#54 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 29 December 2014 - 09:01 AM

CBS Sports: Mussina Breakdown

http://www.cbssports...wn-mike-mussina



#55 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 04 January 2015 - 12:21 PM

Sports on Earth: Why Mussina should be in the Hall

http://www.sportsone...in-hall-of-fame



#56 DJ MC

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Posted 04 January 2015 - 12:57 PM

At the HOF Ballet Collecting Gizmo, someone posted a few days ago a comparison to the same number of ballots last year, along with the final results. It's not amazingly scientific, but it does suggest Mussina (and Schilling, and a bunch of guys higher on the list) could see decent bumps this year. There isn't a real starter candidate coming on the ballot next year (Mike Hampton, Chan Ho Park, Jeff Weaver and Russ Ortiz), so they could get a real jump in 2016.


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#57 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 18 February 2015 - 12:27 PM

Hardball Times: Filling the Gap: Reimagining Mike Mussina as John Smoltz

http://www.hardballt...as-john-smoltz/


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#58 DJ MC

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Posted 01 September 2015 - 04:08 PM

Sporting News: Mike Mussina's Hall of Fame case is strong, so why aren't voters buying it?


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#59 RShack

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Posted 01 September 2015 - 05:34 PM

Sporting News: Mike Mussina's Hall of Fame case is strong, so why aren't voters buying it?

 

He's the Eddie Murray of SP's... he showed up every year, kept his mouth shut, and fate decided he'd never win an annual award... 

 

But since 250 W's is the new 300, he's gonna get in sooner or later... probably later...


 "You say you've lost your faith, but that's not where its at.

  You have no faith to lose, and ya know it" - Bob Dylan


#60 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 08 December 2015 - 10:36 AM

Sports Illustrated: JAWS and the 2016 Hall of Fame ballot: Mike Mussina

http://www.si.com/ml...ot-mike-mussina






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