HOF
Posted 19 August 2016 - 08:23 AM
Right. Last year was the outlier and its clear the injury had sapped him. .740 might be a bit surprising. In particular, the batting avg. Always expected a resurgence back to around the .700 OPS level. Never thought he was washed up.
Thus my point...
HOF
Posted 19 August 2016 - 08:23 AM
He was at 705 before yesterday, big game bumped him up to a level I think is fair to be considered surprising, or at least at the very high end of what could be considered his expected range heading into the year. I don't think it's crazy shocking, but I do think his season has gone about as well as anyone could have hoped aside from the time he missed with the broken bone.
He's been quite consistent all year. 701 OPS before his injury, 706 since he returned in mid-June, 713 OPS since the break (last two numbers don't include last night's breakout), so I don't expect his hitting to fall off much over the rest of the year. If he has a 675 OPS the rest of the way that would leave him with about a 725 OPS for the season.
I think I had JJ pegged for about a 675 OPS this year, would have to go back and look though. Offense has been up in general, league OPS is up 20 points, so what I expected to be 675 could be considered to really be equivalent to 695. JJ's been better than that all season even before his big night last night. I think I was one of the more optimistic people around here on JJ this season, though I could be remembering incorrectly, but he's well outpacing even the optimistic expectatons. Kudos to JJ. Nobody complaining about his contract this year!
Owner
Posted 19 August 2016 - 08:32 AM
Interesting that the league average offense has been up.
Getting past '16, let's look ahead.
This year Hardy is at .278 / .313 / .430
For his career, he's .258 / .308 / .414
1.6 fWAR
17.2 UZR/150
+5 DRS
He remains an elite defensive SS, and he's producing offensively within his career range.
The expectation for '17 should again be more of the same.
Biggest question to me over the next 6 weeks, is how many of the remaining games does he play?
HOF
Posted 19 August 2016 - 09:02 AM
HOF
Posted 19 August 2016 - 09:51 AM
The injuries the last few years were pretty fluke though. Not really age or related to his chronic back condition. I agree he needed to be rested more and the DL has probably helped him.
Agreed, the injury this year was a foul ball off the foot. That can and does happen to everyone.
Giving JJ a day a week, is time well spent, especially when they are playing on turf.
The Orioles with JJ in the lineup are noticeably better on defense.
The power is not there as much any more, but he is having a pretty good year at the plate.
HOF
Posted 19 August 2016 - 10:01 AM
HOF
Posted 19 August 2016 - 10:18 AM
Happy for Hardy that he showed the ability to sustain his career. Last season had me worried, especially with the bad back (watch him run). So it's good to see he can still play, and is still terrific defensively to boot. Hardy has been a very good Oriole and was such an under the radar acquisition.
Agreed, especially the last line. Another Andy MacPhail steal of a trade.
HOF
Posted 19 August 2016 - 11:10 AM
I think the overall numbers are a surprise from before the season, but you could see almost immediately this year that he was driving the ball with much more authority than he ever did last year.
HOF
Posted 19 August 2016 - 12:21 PM
Well yes and no. The labrum can fray and weaken over time, which makes is more likely to tear...especially with his throwing motion of being so over the top.
I think it's his left labrum, though. If he injures his right labrum, his career is probably over.
HOF
Posted 19 August 2016 - 12:50 PM
I think it's his left labrum, though. If he injures his right labrum, his career is probably over.
Correct. This is what made it much harder to hit as a right handed batter.
Owner
Posted 17 February 2017 - 01:49 PM
HOF
Posted 17 February 2017 - 04:17 PM
HOF
Posted 17 February 2017 - 04:28 PM
Shit. I guess that keeps Flaherty's job safe.
Owner
Posted 19 February 2017 - 12:07 PM
Baltimore Sun: Orioles receive good news on last round of tests on J.J. Hardy's ailing back
http://www.baltimore...218-story.html#
Owner
Posted 14 March 2017 - 07:59 AM
Hardy was in the lineup yesterday, back again today.
HOF
Posted 17 June 2017 - 11:07 AM
Owner
Posted 17 June 2017 - 12:13 PM
Anyone want to create an argument to bring back JJ next year?
Only CarGo and Pujols (pretty crazy to think about that) have a worse WAR amongst everyday players.
Even his defense numbers have taken a big hit.
He's done.
His defensive numbers continue to improve after the early season issues.
His UZR / 150 is now 2.9. His DRS is now +1.
Those numbers should continue to improve imo.
The offensive numbers are abysmal though, and hard to get past.
When he had a .564 OPS in 411 ab’s in '15, I expected him to rebound offensively in '16 to his career levels if he was healthy. That's exactly what happened when he finished with his .716 OPS. His '15 numbers were due to him being a wreck physically, and it was noticeable.
By all accounts, he's healthy this year, which makes the output much more concerning imo.
So far this year:
.498 OPS in April
.638 OPS in May
.387 OPS in June
Even if his defensive numbers continue to improve (and finish strong), I can't see bringing him back for '18 with this level of offense.
Without larger changes (trading Machado), I think the O's should be promoting Mountcastle to Bowie. If he holds his weight in the Eastern League, I think you could move Manny to SS, Schoop to 3rd, and Mountcastle to 2nd for '18.
That's pretty aggressive for Mountcastle, so if you had to wait until mid-'18, maybe Flaherty gets a couple of months at 2nd.
Or you could sign someone like Moustakas for 3rd, moving Manny over to SS, keeping Schoop at 2nd.
Despite that, I expected to see him rebound offensively last Spring. He met my expectations, posting an OPS (.716) exactly at his career levels.
Owner
Posted 18 June 2017 - 08:51 PM
MASN: Showalter on Hardy’s wrist: “Not good”
http://www.masnsport...t-not-good.html
HOF
Posted 18 June 2017 - 09:58 PM
HOF
Posted 19 June 2017 - 10:00 AM
Probably guarantees that his option won't automatically vest.
That makes it easier for the team.
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