152 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

Great series of Twitter posts from Nick / Stotle yesterday:

 

@NickJFaleris

 

I hated the early summer "weekend of death" on Bundy's arm and was worried by the subsequent "monitored workload" over the summer circuit"..

 

...and it's part of the reason I had some concerns over his long term health leading up to draft. But...

 

...it seems odd to harken back to that now, with another 150 IPs and multiple thorough medical exams under his belt. #MoreThanNarrativesPls

 

Keith Law tweeted: Worth revisiting: As a HR junior, Dylan Bundy threw 181 pitches in one day, and 293 over four days: http://www.tulsaworld.com/article.aspx/The_pitch_count_issue_How_much_is_too_much/20100520_229_b1_saiddy761561 … #ow #ow #ow

 

Jason Collette (BP, DRaysBay, previous interview of BSL) responded to Law:

 

jasoncollette ‏@jasoncollette 21h

@keithlaw the dad not being concerned about the pitch counts but bothered by the delay between games is, um, interesting

 

Nick responded:

 

@jasoncollette @keithlaw Denver's knowledge base is far from flawless, but I'm sure he'd explain the basis for that statement if asked.

 

@jasoncollette @keithlaw Intelligent minds can disagree as to dev. approaches, but let's not act like the Bundy's weren't consulting pros.

 

Jason responded, saying: @NickJFaleris @keithlaw sure. I'd be interested in seeing research on how more hours of rest is worse than 183 pitches by 17yr old kid

 

Nick replied: @jasoncollette @keithlaw Zing. My only point is that it's not black and white. Why can't cycle-up/cycle-down concerns outweigh pitch count?

 

@jasoncollette @keithlaw I mean, we all understand all pitches aren't created equal; neither are pitch counts. Environmentally dependent.

 

@jasoncollette @keithlaw Again, not defending past usage of DB. Just saying Bundy's weren't rubes being led my malicious coach.

 

@jasoncollette @keithlaw And if industry is going to look back to that weekend NOW and "tisk", it should admit it got high draft rank wrong.

 

@keithlaw @jasoncollette Yup, there was. As well as when he skipped some starts/events throughout the summer. But that criticism went away.

 

@keithlaw @jasoncollette It matters or it doesn't. We don't get to complain at the time, ignore it a yr later, and condemn 2 yrs after that.

 

@keithlaw @jasoncollette I mean, we can, but it feels kind of like having cake and eating it too. Red Flag->top SP in draft->I warned you.

 

Nick went on further, stating:

 

One more note on Bundy injury -- medicals are far from sure things when it comes to IDing UCL damage, so def possible damage done earlier...

 

...We should just be careful about letting narrative drive our discussions--at least if we want to have useful discussions.

[You Play to Win the Game]

A lot of good points here. I'm venting to a degree and apologize for that.

[SportsGuy]

When you look like you need surgery, it rarely ends up being a case that not having it makes the problem go away.

[SportsGuy]

I just want to know if Tucker still thinks this isn't a big deal and that we are all overreacting?   

[BSLChrisStoner]

But you being convinced in March isn't exactly very doctoral.  James Andrews is the best in the world at this, and he said that rest and recovery was the right approach.  It's hard to disagree with that.  I don't think he's had lingering elbow issues since HS.  They said he had some issues in HS, not that it never went away. 

 

How much time was wasted?  Doing the surgery in ST would've been crazy.  Might as well take his appendix out while you're doing unnecessary surgeries that might become an issue down the road.  Perhaps...perhaps...an argument could be made for going ahead and doing the surgery in late April when he saw Andrews the first time.  So we've wasted about 8 weeks, maybe less. 

 

Why not give rest and rehab a shot if it's not apparent that surgery is needed?  8 weeks compared to 50-60 weeks.  You don't have to be an advanced statistician to see that it's likely worthwhile to give it a shot on it's own first rather than just slicing him open.  Again, this wasn't a case where surgery was obviously needed.  It would have essentially been exploratory.

 

This is pretty much my take. The guy that is regarded as the best in the world recommended rest and recovery as the right approach. It seemed to be working as Bundy was not experiencing pain, and was on the way back to getting on a mound.

 

He's suffered a set-back which sucks, but let's see what happens.

[Mackus]

When you look like you need surgery, it rarely ends up being a case that not having it makes the problem go away.

 

But he didn't look like he needed surgery in April.  If he did, Andrews would've sliced him up.  It's not like the guy is in the business of not recommending surgery to his patients.

[You Play to Win the Game]

This is pretty much my take. The guy that is regarded as the best in the world recommended rest and recovery as the right approach. It seemed to be working as Bundy was not experiencing pain, and was on the way back to getting on a mound.

 

He's suffered a set-back which sucks, but let's see what happens.

 

But that's the thing, I'm far less trusting than others I guess. We never interviewed Dr. Andrews, and asked him point blank. The O's reported that Dr. Andrews recommended rest. What's more likely is that the O's took that OPTION, but there were multiple options on the table at that time. I know I'm making some assumptions here, but I don't think it's unreasonable either. It fits with the O's MO of always trying to take the ultra-conservative approach to injuries ever since Buck has been here.

[JeremyStrain]

But that's the thing, I'm far less trusting than others I guess. We never interviewed Dr. Andrews, and asked him point blank. The O's reported that Dr. Andrews recommended rest. What's more likely is that the O's took that OPTION, but there were multiple options on the table at that time. I know I'm making some assumptions here, but I don't think it's unreasonable either. It fits with the O's MO of always trying to take the ultra-conservative approach to injuries ever since Buck has been here.

 

Think you might be a bit off on that one. Orthopedics, especially at that level, don't need to nickle and dime to get every surgery on schedule that they can. They make their money on their fame, and by the success of the people they have treated, not by the number of surgeries they've done. No matter what path he took, his goal is to get Bundy healthy (and even better if he can do it without surgery) as that will add to his reputation and lead to more and more clients. If he cuts into him there's the risk he doesn't come back, and no doctor wants to have an athlete have surgery by them and then not be able to resume their career.

 

I think it's more just that they couldn't see anything originally and didn't want to cut in there without being forced to.

[You Play to Win the Game]

Think you might be a bit off on that one. Orthopedics, especially at that level, don't need to nickle and dime to get every surgery on schedule that they can. They make their money on their fame, and by the success of the people they have treated, not by the number of surgeries they've done. No matter what path he took, his goal is to get Bundy healthy (and even better if he can do it without surgery) as that will add to his reputation and lead to more and more clients. If he cuts into him there's the risk he doesn't come back, and no doctor wants to have an athlete have surgery by them and then not be able to resume their career.

 

I think it's more just that they couldn't see anything originally and didn't want to cut in there without being forced to.

 

Fair points. But isn't it conceivable that Dr. Andrews reported to the FO that surgery and rest are the options, and the team opted for rest?

[JeremyStrain]

Fair points. But isn't it conceivable that Dr. Andrews reported to the FO that surgery and rest are the options, and the team opted for rest?

 

I really doubt that he would offer up surgery as an option that early without some serious evidence. Flip side if they had the evidence I don't think he would have given rehab as an option.

 

Different criteria for pro athletes.

[FlavaDave10]

Jim Duquette was on The Fan afterwards and indicated surgery was an option prior, but the team wanted to exhaust all other options first. They also said they were aware that Bundy has experienced pain of this ilk dating back to HS.

So I'll be the odd man out here and say I'm very disappointed with how the club handled this. They opted for the small chance the treatments would work just so he could help us in a pennant race this season... but that is just so incredibly short sighted to me, because it seems obvious that in doing so, they were just delaying the inevitable. Now, with Bundy being on a MLB contract and about to miss 15-18 months for TJ, that eliminates just about any flexibility with him once he's done with his rehab and if he's still rusty/struggling. They may have one more option to use, but I'm not 100% sure on that.

Either way, the O's botched this situation and I'm pretty pissed about it.

Full disclaimer: and this is a dick move, I get it, but I'm not willing to budge on this one. Disagree with me if you want, but I'm convinced the O's screwed the pooch here. Now instead of having him back earliesh next year, we'll be lucky to have him back by September of next year, or maybe not until 2015.

 

I can't really blame them for exhausting every other option. Knowing Orioles fans, they'd get blasted for "not playing to win this year" if they would have allowed Bundy to have TJ surgery in the spring. 

[NewMarketSean]

Recommended for TJ surgery.

 

I guess he'll be ready for 2015.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Recommended for TJ surgery.

 

I guess he'll be ready for 2015.

 

Certainly disappointing. Had he been healthy to start this year, there was a outside chance he makes the team out of ST. Certainly would have been in the mix by the end of April.  Instead all of '13 wiped out. Likely all / most of '14 wiped out (my hope would be he pitches some next July, August... and is really 'back' to start '15).

 

Guess in the scheme of things, he is still very young. Knowing what we know of him, we know he will work hard in rehab. Probably many bright days ahead, even though today sucks.

[You Play to Win the Game]

Well, I've vented enough... putting all that behind me. I wish Dylan the best and hope he comes back stronger than ever.

[SportsGuy]

That freaking sucks balls.

 

At least he's young but still blows.

[SportsGuy]

Will Carroll told me on Twitter that he is very surprised by this.

[SportsGuy]

Will Carroll ‏@injuryexpert 33s

News on Dylan Bundy is shocker. O's said over and over, no problem with UCL. Now there is. Surgery w/ Andrews tomorrow.

 

I also asked him what he thought may have happened...What could have changed, etc...:

Will Carroll ‏@injuryexpert 52s

@BSLRobShields No idea. Obvs the UCL is damaged. Is it new? Did the cover it up? We'll likely never know and result same

[You Play to Win the Game]

Will Carroll ‏@injuryexpert 33s

News on Dylan Bundy is shocker. O's said over and over, no problem with UCL. Now there is. Surgery w/ Andrews tomorrow.

 

I also asked him what he thought may have happened...What could have changed, etc...:

 

Will Carroll ‏@injuryexpert 52s

@BSLRobShields No idea. Obvs the UCL is damaged. Is it new? Did the cover it up? We'll likely never know and result same

 

I'm convinced they covered it up and hoped it would work out. But have no proof, so it is what it is, like I said, whatever... moving on, hope the best for them. The O's to me still don't deserve carte blanche benefit of the doubt, even despite their record over the past 1.5 seasons.

[SportsGuy]

I'm convinced they covered it up and hoped it would work out. But have no proof, so it is what it is, like I said, whatever... moving on, hope the best for them. The O's to me still don't deserve carte blanche benefit of the doubt, even despite their record over the past 1.5 seasons.

Yea, we are in agreement here.

 

I trust Carroll and that he knew what was wrong.  So, if the tear wasn't there and now all of a sudden it is, when he basically was doing nothing, it makes me think there was something worse to begin with.

[Mackus]

Not surprising given what we heard yesterday and today from Duquette.

 

He should be able to pitch in the minors by mid to late next year and will have a shot to make the team for the opening of the 2015 season.  The delay will certainly suck, but TJ is a recoverable injury.  This isn't a derailment of his career. 

 

He'll still be only 22 years old for the entirety of the 2015 season.  Even if that year is more or less a waste in terms of effectiveness, he'll be 23 in 2016.  And he won't be acruing any service time while he recovers.  Way better to happen this way than to have had him on the roster, pitch well in April and May, and then have this injury.