351 replies to this topic

[Mackus]

I don't like the idea of giving that type of deal to a depreciating asset, but you've made a great point about the discount rate, and the increasing cost per WAR over the length of the contract.

I'm also reading more about Seattle's RSN, and their limited payroll... I guess I can see the rationale.

I still think Seattle will wind-up regretting the deal overall though.
 

 

The obvious catch is if Cano is out of baseball after Year 7, it won't matter to the Mariners at that point in time that they got excess value in years 1-4.  They'll be spending $24M on nothing in years 8 thru 10, regardless of whatever that money could buy at that point.

 

His performance in those years has tons of value, but you can't bank it and apply it forward.

[Mike in STL]

From a link in my previous comment, the M's were committed to the following estimated total payrolls for the next few years (before Cano):

2014: $47.1M

2015: $58.9M

2016: $68.5M

2017: $93.7M

2018: $96.9M

2019: $88.6M

2020: $13M

 

The Mariners spent as much as $117M in 2008, so adding $24M to any of those committed numbers doesn't automatically mean that they need to move anyone for salary reasons. Seager can play 2B and 3B and is considered a terrific prospect around the league, so he's probably safe in Seattle but is definitely the one that I want most. If a package around Hardy or Wieters brings him to Baltimore, I'd do it, but I don't know that Seattle would even listen to that call.

 

Franklin is young so it's hard to tell if his numbers are a baseline or a small sample or what, but he pretty much put up 2012 Jemile Weeks numbers in 2013. But yeah, he's 22, so it's hard to say if that means anything at all. I don't know that the Mariners would sell off their insurance policy on an aging Cano either, especially an incredibly cheap one. I'm not sure Ackley is anything special either, and if his acquisition by the Orioles was announced independent from this Cano thing, it would get yawns and complaints about dumpster diving for utility players. I'm not sure I'd make a move for either of them, unless Franklin could be had on the very cheap.

 

I wouldn't move Seager if I was them either. He's going to be a stud. But I would take my chances with Ackley, a 25 year old left handed hitter who was the second overall pick. It likely wouldn't take much and could make up for that idiotic Hobgood pick from the same draft. 

[Oriole85]

What a horrible deal. 

They're all horrible when your dealing with that many years/dollars. You know that going in. The good news for O's fans: is we know were not going be going after these kinds of deals.

[DJ MC]

Neyer: Where Was All This Money for Alex Rodriguez?

[mweb08]

What would have been a reasonable deal for Cano? 7/175? So quite the over payment to say the least.

[Oriole85]

What would have been a reasonable deal for Cano? 7/175? So quite the over payment to say the least.

I'm not sure what the reasonable deal would be, but reasonable and market are two different things. And these elite FAs almost always get significantly overpaid in both years/dollars.

[SportsGuy]

Going to add Price too.

[DJ MC]

What would have been a reasonable deal for Cano? 7/175? So quite the over payment to say the least.

 

That seems like a better deal, simply because it is a shorter deal.

[Mike in STL]

I think its a bad deal considering the Mariners didn't really need a 2nd baseman. The market demanded that deal though. But is it a horrble deal if the Os signed Cano for that much? 2B is a need, meaning your only hole in the lineup becomes LF, which can be filled for next to nothing (Aoki deal). Add Cano to the Os linuep maybe that gets them over the hump. You get some quality years out of him, hopefully a playoff and WS run, and when Wieters, Hardy, Davis, and others are gone, and the chips are down, you trade Cano to a contender willing to pick up that contract. So you really only paid 4/$96M and got the best four out of him. Maybe you eat an extra $24M of it, small price to pay with the added revenue from a couple playoff runs, and oh yeah, In four years, you'll have had made $100M in national TV dollars. If the Ms get four or five good years, and trade to the wealthy Dodgers or back at the Yankees, its not a bad deal at all. Hell the Dodgers bailed the Red Sox out of what, $400 million or something? They would gladly take Cano off our hands in four or five years.

[Pedro Cerrano]

I think its a bad deal considering the Mariners didn't really need a 2nd baseman. The market demanded that deal though. But is it a horrble deal if the Os signed Cano for that much? 2B is a need, meaning your only hole in the lineup becomes LF, which can be filled for next to nothing (Aoki deal). Add Cano to the Os linuep maybe that gets them over the hump. You get some quality years out of him, hopefully a playoff and WS run, and when Wieters, Hardy, Davis, and others are gone, and the chips are down, you trade Cano to a contender willing to pick up that contract. So you really only paid 4/$96M and got the best four out of him. Maybe you eat an extra $24M of it, small price to pay with the added revenue from a couple playoff runs, and oh yeah, In four years, you'll have had made $100M in national TV dollars. If the Ms get four or five good years, and trade to the wealthy Dodgers or back at the Yankees, its not a bad deal at all. Hell the Dodgers bailed the Red Sox out of what, $400 million or something? They would gladly take Cano off our hands in four or five years.

 

This sort of outside the box thinking is frowned upon in the Warehouse.

[Oriole85]

I think its a bad deal considering the Mariners didn't really need a 2nd baseman. The market demanded that deal though. But is it a horrble deal if the Os signed Cano for that much? 2B is a need, meaning your only hole in the lineup becomes LF, which can be filled for next to nothing (Aoki deal). Add Cano to the Os linuep maybe that gets them over the hump. You get some quality years out of him, hopefully a playoff and WS run, and when Wieters, Hardy, Davis, and others are gone, and the chips are down, you trade Cano to a contender willing to pick up that contract. So you really only paid 4/$96M and got the best four out of him. Maybe you eat an extra $24M of it, small price to pay with the added revenue from a couple playoff runs, and oh yeah, In four years, you'll have had made $100M in national TV dollars. If the Ms get four or five good years, and trade to the wealthy Dodgers or back at the Yankees, its not a bad deal at all. Hell the Dodgers bailed the Red Sox out of what, $400 million or something? They would gladly take Cano off our hands in four or five years.

This is a pretty good assessment IMO of the situation in saying it's not a good deal but pointing out the market ramifications. Only thing is the eventual trade market for Cano might've been tough because he got a full NTC, not to mention that contract would've been tough to get rid of.

 

Thanks for reminding me about the Dodgers bailing out the Red Sox last year.

[DJ MC]

http://joeposnanski....ano-do-for-you/

 

Still, I think when you look at this, you can see a path for the Cano deal will make a lot of sense. All he needs is to have two of the greatest seasons ever, two or three renaissances and a way to provide value when he’s no contributing in other ways. All he needs is the second half of Joe Morgan’s career.

[aurelius]

Soon people will be laughing at this deal harder than they laughed at Bavasi for the results Bedard trade.

[Matt]

http://seattletimes....iners08xml.html

 

Interesting read on the dysfunction within the Mariners organization.

[DJ MC]

http://seattletimes....iners08xml.html

 

Interesting read on the dysfunction within the Mariners organization.

 

That was beautiful.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Baseball Analytics: Breaking Stuff Standing Between Nick Franklin and Potential Stardom

[DJ MC]

Baseball Analytics: Breaking Stuff Standing Between Nick Franklin and Potential Stardom

Not a repeat from 95% of all baseball prospects ever...

[SportsGuy]

Pure gold:

 

Tanya Bondurant ‏@TanyaBondurant 11m

"Seattle heard some team bid 9 yrs/$225MM for Cano, so the M's upped their bid to $240MM/10 yrs before realizing initial bid came from them"

[Chris B]

Pure gold:

 

Tanya Bondurant ‏@TanyaBondurant 11m

"Seattle heard some team bid 9 yrs/$225MM for Cano, so the M's upped their bid to $240MM/10 yrs before realizing initial bid came from them"

 

Hilarious.

[PatrickDougherty]

Pure gold:

 

Tanya Bondurant ‏@TanyaBondurant 11m

"Seattle heard some team bid 9 yrs/$225MM for Cano, so the M's upped their bid to $240MM/10 yrs before realizing initial bid came from them"

I love this.