351 replies to this topic

[SportsGuy]

As expected, Morales will get and likely reject a QO from the Ms.

http://www.rotoworld...kendrys-morales

[DJ MC]

http://hardballtalk....don-as-manager/

 

Welcome back, Lloyd McClendon!

[BSLChrisStoner]

FanGraphs: Top 10 Prospects
http://www.fangraphs...attle-mariners/

[PatrickDougherty]

Just got a notification on my phone that Cano has agreed to a 10-year, $240M deal with Seattle. No article to support yet.

 

EDIT: ESPNNY has an article citing an unnamed source.

Edited by BSLPatrickDougherty, 06 December 2013 - 11:14 AM.

[BSLChrisStoner]

What a horrible deal. 

[Mike in STL]

Just saw Heyman confirm it.

[PatrickDougherty]

What a horrible deal. 

I think that number makes sense (or at least more sense) in NY. No chance he's worth that in revenue in Seattle. But I guess if a win is $7M in free agency, he just needs to hit 3.5 WAR every year for the next 10 years for that to be a good price, if $240M is ever a good price. I'm sure Seattle would trade a few 7-8 WAR years early for a 0-2 WAR year late, too. Plus Seattle has few committed contracts until now. Felix and Iwakuma are the only two guys on something besides Pre-Arb or Arb deals right now.

[Mackus]

Holy shit!

 

I can't believe that.

[Mike in STL]

Wish the O's would have waited before jumping the gun for Jemile Weeks. Have to think the M's don't have room for Ackley, Seager, and Franklin now.

[Mackus]

What a horrible deal. 

 

It's really only $180M in net present dollars, if they pay it out evenly and can get a 5% return.

 

At $7M per WAR (without even considering that cost inflating), Cano would have to be worth about 26 WAR over the life of the deal to make it worth it.  He's been worth 30 the last 4 years. 

 

Not saying that it's a good deal or making any real assessment, just that when you spread the money out over that long of a span, it really reduces the overall value of the deal.  $24M in 2023 might be what we pay #3 starters.

[Mackus]

Wish the O's would have waited before jumping the gun for Jemile Weeks. Have to think the M's don't have room for Ackley, Seager, and Franklin now.

 

Why would Weeks inhibit the O's from getting any of those guys if they like them better?

[BSLChrisStoner]

I think that number makes sense (or at least more sense) in NY. No chance he's worth that in revenue in Seattle. But I guess if a win is $7M in free agency, he just needs to hit 3.5 WAR every year for the next 10 years for that to be a good price, if $240M is ever a good price. I'm sure Seattle would trade a few 7-8 WAR years early for a 0-2 WAR year late, too. Plus Seattle has few committed contracts until now. Felix and Iwakuma are the only two guys on something besides Pre-Arb or Arb deals right now.

The last 2 years according to fWAR he has been worth on average $32.4M.

He turned 31 in October, so will be 31 all of 2014.

Let's say he's worth $32.4M annually over the next 3 years... that's $97.2M in production... with him needing to have $142.8M left in production over the remaining 7 years.  Just don't see it.

He will have a great 2-3 year run, and he will help their young talent... get some people back to the Stadium, create some buzz. All good things... but you can't turn back time. By the time the '18 season ends, he will be turning 36, with the Mariners staring at 1/2 the contract left. Just seems disgusting to me, and think he will end up being a huge albatross for years.
 

I say that as someone that likes to watch Cano as a player. Great arm. Swings that heavy bat, with great bat speed.

 

Certainly interesting regardless though.

[Mike in STL]

Why would Weeks inhibit the O's from getting any of those guys if they like them better?

Because they're going to settle for Weeks. Ackley has been the most disappointing of the three, so I would think Jim Johnson could have got us him while he still has upside. Weeks you know what your going to get, and it makes me yawn. 

[SammyBirdland]

I'm glad King Felix has someone to be miserable in the rain with now.

[Markus]

The M's must be spending all that Nintendo money now.

[Mike in STL]

I guess I don't envision them moving Hardy or Wieters at all either, so who do you trade to get one of those guys? 

[Mackus]

The last 2 years according to fWAR he has been worth on average $32.4M.

He turned 31 in October, so will be 31 all of 2014.

Let's say he's worth $32.4M annually over the next 3 years... that's $97.2M in production... with him needing to have $142.8M left in production over the remaining 7 years.  Just don't see it.

He will have a great 2-3 year run, and he will help their young talent... get some people back to the Stadium, create some buzz. All good things... but you can't turn back time. By the time the '18 season ends, he will be turning 36, with the Mariners staring at 1/2 the contract left. Just seems disgusting to me, and think he will end up being a huge albatross for years.
 

I say that as someone that likes to watch Cano as a player. Great arm. Swings that heavy bat, with great bat speed.

 

Certainly interesting regardless though.

 

On the surface, your analysis is spot on.  However, you're not considering the reduced value of the contact by being able to delay paying huge chunks of it until far down the road and the increased value each win is likely to be worth over the course of the deal.

 

Check out this chart I just put together.  If Cano is paid $24M annually, and there is a 5% discount rate (the rate year-over-year at which the value of money decreases, similar to inflation), and the cost per WAR on the free agent market goes up by $500k annually from the $7M it's at now, Cano would only have to be worth 21 WAR over the next 10 years to earn his keep.

 

YYYY	$YYYY	$2014	$/WAR	WAR-even
2014	24	24.00	7.0	3.43
2015	24	22.86	7.5	3.05
2016	24	21.77	8.0	2.72
2017	24	20.73	8.5	2.44
2018	24	19.74	9.0	2.19
2019	24	15.47	9.5	1.63
2020	24	14.73	10.0	1.47
2021	24	14.03	10.5	1.34
2022	24	13.36	11.0	1.21
2023	24	12.73	11.5	1.11
Total				
10	240	179.43		20.59

[PatrickDougherty]

Wish the O's would have waited before jumping the gun for Jemile Weeks. Have to think the M's don't have room for Ackley, Seager, and Franklin now.

From a link in my previous comment, the M's were committed to the following estimated total payrolls for the next few years (before Cano):

2014: $47.1M

2015: $58.9M

2016: $68.5M

2017: $93.7M

2018: $96.9M

2019: $88.6M

2020: $13M

 

The Mariners spent as much as $117M in 2008, so adding $24M to any of those committed numbers doesn't automatically mean that they need to move anyone for salary reasons. Seager can play 2B and 3B and is considered a terrific prospect around the league, so he's probably safe in Seattle but is definitely the one that I want most. If a package around Hardy or Wieters brings him to Baltimore, I'd do it, but I don't know that Seattle would even listen to that call.

 

Franklin is young so it's hard to tell if his numbers are a baseline or a small sample or what, but he pretty much put up 2012 Jemile Weeks numbers in 2013. But yeah, he's 22, so it's hard to say if that means anything at all. I don't know that the Mariners would sell off their insurance policy on an aging Cano either, especially an incredibly cheap one. I'm not sure Ackley is anything special either, and if his acquisition by the Orioles was announced independent from this Cano thing, it would get yawns and complaints about dumpster diving for utility players. I'm not sure I'd make a move for either of them, unless Franklin could be had on the very cheap.

[Mackus]

I mean, how great does Adam Jones' contract look now?  We thought it was an ok but not spectacular deal when he signed it, he's a 3ish WAR player.  But does anyone think Jones wouldn't blow 5/$75M out of the water if he had not signed and instead was a FA this offseason as he was scheduled to be?

[BSLChrisStoner]

On the surface, your analysis is spot on.  However, you're not considering the reduced value of the contact by being able to delay paying huge chunks of it until far down the road and the increased value each win is likely to be worth over the course of the deal.

 

Check out this chart I just put together.  If Cano is paid $24M annually, and there is a 5% discount rate (the rate year-over-year at which the value of money decreases, similar to inflation), and the cost per WAR on the free agent market goes up by $500k annually from the $7M it's at now, Cano would only have to be worth 21 WAR over the next 10 years to earn his keep.

 

YYYY	$YYYY	$2014	$/WAR	WAR-even
2014	24	24.00	7.0	3.43
2015	24	22.86	7.5	3.05
2016	24	21.77	8.0	2.72
2017	24	20.73	8.5	2.44
2018	24	19.74	9.0	2.19
2019	24	15.47	9.5	1.63
2020	24	14.73	10.0	1.47
2021	24	14.03	10.5	1.34
2022	24	13.36	11.0	1.21
2023	24	12.73	11.5	1.11
Total				
10	240	179.43		20.59

 

I don't like the idea of giving that type of deal to a depreciating asset, but you've made a great point about the discount rate, and the increasing cost per WAR over the length of the contract.

I'm also reading more about Seattle's RSN, and their limited payroll... I guess I can see the rationale.

I still think Seattle will wind-up regretting the deal overall though.