294 replies to this topic

[RShack]

MASN: Talking about Jim Johnson

http://www.masnsport...im-johnson.html

Not sure if it's just the photo in that article, or its processing, but the orange jersey looks like the right orange to me in that picture. Previously, I had said I didn't like the version of orange used for the orange jersey, thought it was too washed out and bland, should be richer and deeper (everybody disagreed). I still think that, but the orange in that photo of JJ looks right...

[BSLChrisStoner]

J.Johnson 2012: 71 games, 2-1, 51 saves, 2.49 era, 68.2 ip, 55 hits, 3 hr's, 15 bb's, 41 k's, .556 OPS against, 1.82 G/F

[Stotle]

I participated in Baseball Prospectus' Mock Arbitration Series arguing for the Orioles club against Jim Johnson. The article is open to non-subscribers as of right now, so I figured I'd pass along the link in case anyone was interested:

http://www.baseballp... ... leid=19515

Taking into account the fact that we had to make written arguments as opposed to arguing in person, and the time limitation meant cutting down on the scope of our arguments, the series has pretty well simulated actual arb hearings, and has received good industry feedback.

[Icterus galbula]

Nice stuff! Only got about halfway through, will finish reading in a bit.

Clean sweep by the panel and 91% of the voters- Smouse better watch out for Stotle.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Interesting read Nick, thanks for this.

I initially read past the criteria, which limited the Player’s contribution to his Club during the past season. I think Bradford Doolittle's presentation on Johnson would have been strengthened with mention of Johnson's 2011 season, framing the performance over a two year period. (Even though '12 was Johnson's first year as Closer.)

I see Doolittle did attempt to frame that argument, in his rebuttal.

Jumping from $2.6M to $7.1M seems unlikely. I think you win this discussion fairly easily.

[Stotle]

Interesting read Nick, thanks for this.

I initially read past the criteria, which limited the Player’s contribution to his Club during the past season. I think Bradford Doolittle's presentation on Johnson would have been strengthened with mention of Johnson's 2011 season, framing the performance over a two year period. (Even though '12 was Johnson's first year as Closer.)

I see Doolittle did attempt to frame that argument, in his rebuttal.

Jumping from $2.6M to $7.1M seems unlikely. I think you win this discussion fairly easily.

Previous performance can definitely come into play, depending on the situation. For Johnson, it's a little trickier since non-closers and closers are compensated so differently. If Brad argued the non-closer performance I would have tried to nail him pretty hard with evidence of non-closers that put up great numbers and weren't compensated anywhere near that of a closer.

Previous salary is sometimes considered, but from what I have heard from front office folks who are well steeped, it's basically a coin flip as to whether the panel will view it as relevant. A lot of times it boils down to "what should his compensation be compared to same service time/same position folks". The understanding being that lots of people come by their position through different avenues, and what really matters is performance once you're there.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Johnson earned his 4th save last night in Boston.

 

Season: 5 games, 0-1,  5 ip, 4 hits, 0 er, 2 bb's, 6 k's, .522 OPS against, 0.71 G/F

[BSLChrisStoner]

Season: 19 games, 19 ip, 1-2, 0.95 era, 14 saves, 13 hits, 1 hr, 4 bb's, 17 k's, .511 OPS against, 1.04 G/F

[Luke Jackson]

In reading reactions on Twitter about Jim Johnson's blown save on Saturday, it got me curious about a couple things. Number one, the daily reactions to everything that happens on the field. And number two, Johnson's outing today. Turned out the Rays hit some pretty damn good pitches. http://bit.ly/17Nl1TY 

 

Thoughts? Comments?

[Matt]

It happens its just O's fans have been spoiled by him and forget that most teams go through this with their closers. He'll get right again and save another 20+ in a row and all will be forgotten.

[Mike in STL]

Yeah, it sucks. But you're right. Its just baseball at this point. Its a perfect time for the O's to get back on track, and for the Yankees to cool off a bit, because that's baseball too.

Its time for reality to hit the Yankees like it has hit the Os as well. A sweep when they come to town will shoot us right back up in the division race.

[NewMarketSean]

He's having control issues. It's not just because of baseball.

[SportsGuy]

Buck should have pulled him after the homer and the 2 walks.

[Tucker Blair]

He's having control issues. It's not just because of baseball.

And people in baseball have control issues from time to time.

Not everyone is Mariano Rivera or Gregg Maddux on the mound.

 

I just think it is ridiculous how people are so quick to want changes. If a Manager pulls their closer in every single one of these situations throughout the year, then the probability of those closers losing their psyche is significantly higher. Especially when you have someone whom has been so good for such a long time now.

 

Players have bad weeks, Johnson had a bad week. It happens. He made some decent pitches in the latter half of the inning that were simply hit. It happens. I'm with Virtual Mayhem, I think fans have become spoiled, just like Ravens fans overreact now to every single play and game.

[SportsGuy]

And people in baseball have control issues from time to time.
Not everyone is Mariano Rivera or Gregg Maddux on the mound.
 
I just think it is ridiculous how people are so quick to want changes. If a Manager pulls their closer in every single one of these situations throughout the year, then the probability of those closers losing their psyche is significantly higher. Especially when you have someone whom has been so good for such a long time now.
 
Players have bad weeks, Johnson had a bad week. It happens. He made some decent pitches in the latter half of the inning that were simply hit. It happens. I'm with Virtual Mayhem, I think fans have become spoiled, just like Ravens fans overreact now to every single play and game.

Right, guys have bad weeks and the manager should recognize that and pull him in an important game.

Now, that's not to say JJ should lose his job or anything but after the homer and the poor control, he should have been pulled.

It's no biggie. You don't have to be a slave to the closers role.

[Tucker Blair]

Right, guys have bad weeks and the manager should recognize that and pull him in an important game.

Now, that's not to say JJ should lose his job or anything but after the homer and the poor control, he should have been pulled.

It's no biggie. You don't have to be a slave to the closers role.

Hindsight is easy. These are humans, not robots. You can't predict what will happen.

[You Play to Win the Game]

Hindsight is easy. These are humans, not robots. You can't predict what will happen.

 

He definitely should have been pulled. JJ has shown time and time again, that when he doesn't have it after the first 3-4 batters, he just doesn't have it. It means nothing in terms of him losing his job. You pull him, hope O'Day shuts the door (which it turns out he didn't), then try to win it in extras. Then the next game, if it's a save situation, you put JJ right back out there. Trying to treat these grown ass men with kid gloves so that you don't impact their psyche isn't something I'd personally be concerned with, because if them getting pulled after 4 or 5 batters of getting knocked around is going to impact their psyche long term, then it was probably only a matter of time before that happened anyway.

 

Now, the morons on FB and Twitter saying JJ is done as a closer, that's overreacting. That's not understanding the game of baseball very well. 

 

Thinking we probably should have taken JJ out a little earlier than Buck did, while presenting a logical argument to do so, is completely fair game. You're stance is also logical and fair... but the assumption that it's only hindsight and has no merit, I don't agree with.

[Tucker Blair]

You don't just pull someone every time there is some turmoil. We will have to disagree here. Grown ass men or not, they are humans. A good manager will let their best pitchers work through this stuff. Sometimes it doesn't work out how you envision it, but that is life in general.

I think there is a reason Buck Showalter has gotten so much praise with his bullpen work over his career. I'm not second guessing him over keeping Jim Johnson in that game. I think both Showalter and Johnson have earned enough security in their career to not be questioned. Sorry, that's how I feel.

[You Play to Win the Game]

You don't just pull someone every time there is some turmoil. We will have to disagree here. Grown ass men or not, they are humans. A good manager will let their best pitchers work through this stuff. Sometimes it doesn't work out how you envision it, but that is life in general.

I think there is a reason Buck Showalter has gotten so much praise with his bullpen work over his career. I'm not second guessing him over keeping Jim Johnson in that game. I think both Showalter and Johnson have earned enough security in their career to not be questioned. Sorry, that's how I feel.

 

No need to be sorry, I'm just saying that having an alternate stance to your's isn't just hindsight. 

 

I put a lot of faith in Buck, but he is an absolute slave to the save rule, for sure. JJ has shown time and time again that when he doesn't have it after 3 or 4 batters, he's going to blow it. It is what it is. So to me, that's not just pulling someone after "some turmoil", it's pulling someone after "a lot of turmoil", but just before he blows the game. But yes, we can agree to disagree here.

[DJ MC]

You don't just pull someone every time there is some turmoil. We will have to disagree here. Grown ass men or not, they are humans. A good manager will let their best pitchers work through this stuff. Sometimes it doesn't work out how you envision it, but that is life in general.

I think there is a reason Buck Showalter has gotten so much praise with his bullpen work over his career. I'm not second guessing him over keeping Jim Johnson in that game. I think both Showalter and Johnson have earned enough security in their career to not be questioned. Sorry, that's how I feel.

The psyche thing goes both ways, though. If Johnson is so fragile that he can't handle being pulled on a day when he just isn't pitching well, why should he be in the role?

 

I would have been fine with leaving Johnson in to pitch through it, because I trust him. But if Showalter and Adair think he's just off, good on them for making the switch.

 

I don't think we'll see Johnson today, since he threw 32 pitches before leaving, but I doubt there will be any issue with putting him in the game tomorrow night.