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#21 Brobey

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Posted 06 March 2012 - 09:49 PM

While I agree his Home Runs will be difficult to replace, the advanced metrics show he was "somehow" a replacement-level player last, which I'm guessing is due to the strikeouts and abysmal defense.

With that being said, if you are replacing his glove with someone who is just a league average defensive player, they will have to be a little above average with the bat to match Reynolds "advanced measurement."

I know players hate it, especially during a contract year, but he should be your permanent DH - that way you get the offense without the awful performance in the field.
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#22 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 06 March 2012 - 10:28 PM

While I agree his Home Runs will be difficult to replace, the advanced metrics show he was "somehow" a replacement-level player last, which I'm guessing is due to the strikeouts and abysmal defense.

With that being said, if you are replacing his glove with someone who is just a league average defensive player, they will have to be a little above average with the bat to match Reynolds "advanced measurement."

I know players hate it, especially during a contract year, but he should be your permanent DH - that way you get the offense without the awful performance in the field.


In '09 his UZR/150 was -7.4. His FanGraphs WAR was 3.5, which they valued at $15.7M worth of production.
In '10 his UZR /150 was 2.5. His FanGraphs WAR was 2.3, which they valued at $9.2M worth of production.
In '11 his UZR /150 was -30.3. His FanGraphs WAR was 0.3, which they valued at $1.3M worth of production.

If he can get his defense back near his '09, and '10 levels, I'd rather have him at 3rd than at DH.

#23 Brobey

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Posted 06 March 2012 - 10:36 PM

What do you attribute his poor defensive metrics last year? From the naked eye, you could see his defense was terrible, but why the drop in 2011 from his 2009/2010 performance?
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#24 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 06 March 2012 - 10:40 PM

What do you attribute his poor defensive metrics last year? From the naked eye, you could see his defense was terrible, but why the drop in 2011 from his 2009/2010 performance?


Having not having seen him play regularly before, I don't know really. His performance last year was so off the charts poor, that I have to think we see improvement this year. Even if it 'below average', that will be an upgrade.

At FanFest Reynolds was pretty adamant about wanting to improve, touting the weight loss for improved lateral movement, and reminding people that he came up as a SS. People have talked about him coming in on balls, but what bothered me the most last year is that he would make the great play, and butcher the routine.

#25 Brobey

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Posted 06 March 2012 - 10:55 PM

What do you attribute his poor defensive metrics last year? From the naked eye, you could see his defense was terrible, but why the drop in 2011 from his 2009/2010 performance?


Having not having seen him play regularly before, I don't know really. His performance last year was so off the charts poor, that I have to think we see improvement this year. Even if it 'below average', that will be an upgrade.

At FanFest Reynolds was pretty adamant about wanting to improve, touting the weight loss for improved lateral movement, and reminding people that he came up as a SS. People have talked about him coming in on balls, but what bothered me the most last year is that he would make the great play, and butcher the routine.


I could be remembering incorrectly but for some reason I have in my mind a good amount of his errors were throwing errors which seems more mental issue than lateral movement problems.
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#26 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 06 March 2012 - 10:57 PM

I could be remembering incorrectly but for some reason I have in my mind a good amount of his errors were throwing errors which seems more mental issue than lateral movement problems.


I think you are remembering correctly. I seem to recall seeing something that most of his errors were throwing. I do recall that his footwork on his throws would get sloppy at times. Arm strength is good.

#27 dpsmith22

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Posted 07 March 2012 - 11:06 AM

Yep the majority were throwing.

Footwork and arm angles which is exactly what he said he has been working on.

Time will tell.

One of the things about Reynolds that intrigues me is that he is only 27. The light bulb could still go on and he COULD be a monster.
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#28 Brobey

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Posted 07 March 2012 - 12:12 PM

Yep the majority were throwing.

Footwork and arm angles which is exactly what he said he has been working on.

Time will tell.

One of the things about Reynolds that intrigues me is that he is only 27. The light bulb could still go on and he COULD be a monster.


Yeah, the fact that he does have some youth on his side makes you hope that he can put everything together in the field with some hard work and tons and tons of reps...
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#29 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 22 March 2012 - 09:51 AM

I'll be pretty disappointed if Reynolds is moved before this year begins.

#30 Bob Klein

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Posted 11 April 2012 - 11:38 AM

One man's opinion:

http://deadspin.com/baltimore-orioles/

Maybe Reynolds would be less of a negative defensive factor at first base.

#31 Mackus

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Posted 11 April 2012 - 11:45 AM

He certainly can't stay at 3B if he plays like he did last season and so far this year.

I'm still holding out some hope that he can be merely below average and not absolutely terrible. I'd continue putting him at 3B every day for the first two months or so to try and see if he can get back to where he was before last season. If he's still really struggling after that, then he has to be moved to either 1B or DH.

#32 DJ MC

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Posted 12 April 2012 - 07:55 PM

I'm still not convinced that Reynolds will be such a liability long-term that he has to be moved off of third base, but I know at this point I'm in the minority with that belief.

If he really struggles, and if Reimold isn't hitting after a couple of months, I'd really like to see if Reynolds can make the Jones/Braun switch to left field. He's athletic enough and has a good enough arm. If he could prove competent out there, that opens up plenty of options in regards to his value to the Orioles and to other teams, and the ability of the Orioles to sign or trade for players and still move him to first or DH if necessary.

That popup Tuesday night sure didn't help his cause, though. I worry that ends up being his Jack Cust tripping-around-third moment, or his Joe Flacco Polamalu-blitz/sack/strip moment.

#33 Mackus

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Posted 13 April 2012 - 09:09 AM

I'm still not convinced that Reynolds will be such a liability long-term that he has to be moved off of third base, but I know at this point I'm in the minority with that belief.

There seem to be only two groups at this point, those that think he may still be able to get back to being acceptable at 3B and we should give him a bit more time there to prove last year was an aberration and those that just want him to be moved right now.

I'm still in the give him more time camp, but my feeling about how things are going to turn out at the end of that time is turning. I think eventually we'll likely have to move him off. Having a bad week is only one bad week, but following last season, he needed to get off to a good start. Having as bad of a week as he did, doesn't bode well for his chances of improving his performance enough to merit continued playing time at 3B. I don't have a set date that I'm giving him until to make his case, it'll be more based on how average or bad he's capable of playing. The worse he actually is, the less time he'll get.

#34 Tucker Blair

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Posted 14 April 2012 - 09:38 AM

http://www.entrepren... ... error.html

On Reynolds and Davis possibly switching.

#35 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 14 April 2012 - 10:34 AM

http://www.entreprenoriole.com/2012/04/mark-reynolds-man-myth-error.html

On Reynolds and Davis possibly switching.


This was a good read Tucker, but I'm still not ready to make that switch. I see the O's have announced that Reynolds will be getting some time at 1st. I'm fine with that.

Most people are thinking that if you move Reynolds to 1st, it makes it easier for the O's to offer Reynolds to a contender at the deadline. I don't think that matters much. Anyone that wants to obtain Reynolds will be doing so for his bat. I'm in the minority, but I'd like to see the O's pick up Reynolds' option for next year. I believe he has more value to the Birds, vs. what he would bring back in a trade. Certainly fine to determine exactly what trade value he has though.

As far as 2012 goes, I'd like to continue to put Reynolds at 3rd regularly for now. If he looks closer to what we saw in '11, vs. what he provided defensively in '09, and '10; then you can give Betemit additional time, and use Reynolds more at DH. At least with Betemit replacing Vlad, you have the luxury to move players around a bit.

Reynolds had that horrible game Tuesday, came back with the double and 2 bb's Wednesday, and looked bad again last night. Ultimately we know he is going to provide production with the bat. Hopefully that starts coming on during this road-trip.

#36 Can_of_corn

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Posted 14 April 2012 - 10:42 AM

Didn't they say in spring training that Davis' arm couldn't handle everyday duties at third?

Well I hear Linda Ronstadt is looking for a guitar player.


#37 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 14 April 2012 - 10:50 AM

Didn't they say in spring training that Davis' arm couldn't handle everyday duties at third?


I don't recall that exactly, but after telling him (Davis) all Spring that 1st was his; it would be unfair to him to ask him to now move back to 3rd. Davis' has enough on his plate with showing he can hit everyday at the Major League level. Leave him (and 1st) alone for now.

You can move Reynolds and Betemit back and forth at 3rd and DH for now.

#38 SportsGuy

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Posted 14 April 2012 - 11:02 AM

Putting Reynolds at first right now is a terrible idea.

You wait to do this until June...See where things stand with him at third and Davis at first.

If you want to DH him some to get his mental focus back, I am ok with that but moving him back and forth isn't going to help anyone.

#39 Tucker Blair

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Posted 14 April 2012 - 11:22 AM

Putting Reynolds at first right now is a terrible idea.

You wait to do this until June...See where things stand with him at third and Davis at first.

If you want to DH him some to get his mental focus back, I am ok with that but moving him back and forth isn't going to help anyone.


So they wait until he has completely deteriorated at 3B, Has something like 15-20 errors, and has shown no improvement?

I make the change now if anything. Making it at June does nothing.
Either way the corner defense is dreadfully terrible, but the problem with the Orioles is that they wait until the last minute to do everything. If they are going to slowly move Reynolds away from 3B, thats fine and I understand it completely. But to keep playing him there while he shows literally no improvement is rather unfair to the pitchers and to fans in general.

At this point, not one single person should care about what is "fair" to Reynolds, Davis, etc.
Its all about performance at the MLB level. Either you can or can't perform, and they both have had absolutely enough time to prove it.

Also, I take anything said in ST with a grain of salt. I honestly don't take anything said by managers as 100% truth. Their jobs are always on the line too, and they are going to make the appropriate moves to make the team better. Who knows how Buck truly feels about Davis or whomever else at 3B, but it's painfully obvious that they have grown tired of Reynolds there (along with practically everyone else)

#40 SportsGuy

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Posted 14 April 2012 - 11:42 AM

So they wait until he has completely deteriorated at 3B, Has something like 15-20 errors, and has shown no improvement?

How do you know he won't show improvement? Its all mental with him not physical. So yes, I give him until late May/early June unless he is absolutely awful for more of a sample size than 5 games.

I make the change now if anything. Making it at June does nothing

Sure it does. If gives Davis at bats for 2 months. It hopefully allows Reynolds to improve his defense and if he can get back to where he was in Zona, he will be more valuable in the trade market.

At this point, not one single person should care about what is "fair" to Reynolds, Davis, etc.
Its all about performance at the MLB level. Either you can or can't perform, and they both have had absolutely enough time to prove it.

Well, Reynolds has proven that he can perform at the ML level.

The Orioles need to find out what they have in Davis, so he needs the consistent at bats.




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