229 replies to this topic

[JeremyStrain]

He just resumed a throwing program this week, so I'm inclined to say yes, but his dad has been laying it on pretty heavy that he's ready to go to UCLA. It's realllllly hard to say with the new format this year. He was my favorite in this draft before the injury, but in general I worry a bit about kids that throw 100mph because it doesn't take much to get a major injury (Strasburg). Bundy is the only one I've ever seen where I really didn't worry about injury concerns.

[bhrusty]

While it's obviously a concern, the wash out an injury rate of most pitching prospects is already so high that I wouldn't worry about it. Comparing to Stras, I think the Nats will take 120 stras starts over 180 of anyone else in that class before he reaches free agency.

[bhrusty]

That said, I wouldnt take Giolito. My top 5 right now is probably Gausman, Zimmer, Appel, Zunino, Buxton. Giolito is talented, and I'm not really concerned over the injury, but I would rather get a college arm (with them being about equal) or a hitter.

[ChaosLex]

Shoshana (Boston)

If you were the Orioles would you take Correa at #4? I have to admit the college pitching prospects have me feeling really underwhelmed

Klaw (12:13 PM)

Quite happily, yes. There's a good case to be made that Correa will end up the best player in this draft class.

http://espn.go.com/s...chat/_/id/43678

Thoughts!?

[ChaosLex]

More from Law:

Matt (No Cal)

Will you be seeing Correa before the draft? How does he match up with Machado on both sides of the ball?

Klaw (12:48 PM)

Saw him on Wednesday. Machado has a better chance to stay at SS. Correa's a big boy for 17. But he can really mash. If I were with Houston, I'd be considering him at 1-1, and I can't see him getting out of the top 7 in any circumstance.

[ChaosLex]

And some more:

Matt (NJ)

would you start correa at SS once he signs or move him right to 3b? Will he stick at 3b or is he going to slip down the spectrum from SS all the way to LF or 1b?

Klaw (1:07 PM)

He might be the rare guy I'd move right to third. Usually I favor leaving prospects where they are until it's absolutely necessary to move them, but he might be good enough a hitter that you want to move him right away.

[JeremyStrain]

Viable. It's a really underwhelming draft at the top. I could make a good case for about 12 players at #4 right now, in a normal year it's like 4-5. Buxton and Correa have that high risk, high ceiling thing going, same with Giolito. Appel, Gausman, and Zimmer have the safe college arm thing. Stroman is intriguing as he's got better stuff than most of the draft but he's short, if he were 6'3 or so he'd be the no.1 pick.

I'm leaning that the way our minors are built they are better off taking one of the high ceiling HS kids this year, and then next year and the year after you think about adding some college players to line the core up to arrive at the same time.

[Luke Jackson]

As we've discussed at length in the past, I love Stroman but this pick is a huge building block for the O's and I don't know if DD and his scouting staff will want to use the fourth pick in the draft on a kid who's 5-foot-9. Look at the rosters for the all-star game last year. The pitchers are big guys with big velocity. Might not want to take that risk, and if the Orioles go pitcher, I'd expect for them to pluck from the Appel/Gausman/Zimmer trio even though the college pitching is a bit underwhelming this year. I've heard good things about Miss. State's Chris Stratton too. Don't appear to be any Coles or Bauers in this draft. Certainly are no Bundys. I wish there was a Dylan Bundy clone in this draft and the Orioles could just take him. That'd be swell. Oh well.

Anyway, if the O's look to a position player, I'd like for them to look in Correa's direction or Albert Almora's direction, assuming Buxton is off the board. Here's what ESPN's Kiley McDaniel wrote on Almora ... I'll excerpt just a portion since it's Insider (http://insider.espn.... ... ron-buxton):

"Ideally the Buxton alternative would be a polished college bat, but Almora has more hitting polish than many college bats this year. One scout told me Almora was the first high school hitter he's graded who projects to eventually develop a 70 bat. There isn't a college hitter in the draft close to that.

Some scouts have compared Almora to Carlos Beltran. While Beltran was faster and Almora is a right-handed hitter, the upside and profile are very similar. Almora has the history of hitting and, most importantly, the upside and certainty necessary to consider passing on the even more tremendous upside Buxton offers."

I've also read that Almora is a really polished center fielder for a high schooler. If the college pitchers are underwhelming to the O's and they aren't ready to gamble on Giolito, I'd like to see them take long looks at Correa and Almora.

[JeremyStrain]

As we've discussed at length in the past, I love Stroman but this pick is a huge building block for the O's and I don't know if DD and his scouting staff will want to use the fourth pick in the draft on a kid who's 5-foot-9. Look at the rosters for the all-star game last year. The pitchers are big guys with big velocity. Might not want to take that risk, and if the Orioles go pitcher, I'd expect for them to pluck from the Appel/Gausman/Zimmer trio even though the college pitching is a bit underwhelming this year. I've heard good things about Miss. State's Chris Stratton too. Don't appear to be any Coles or Bauers in this draft. Certainly are no Bundys. I wish there was a Dylan Bundy clone in this draft and the Orioles could just take him. That'd be swell. Oh well.

Anyway, if the O's look to a position player, I'd like for them to look in Correa's direction or Albert Almora's direction, assuming Buxton is off the board. Here's what ESPN's Kiley McDaniel wrote on Almora ... I'll excerpt just a portion since it's Insider (http://insider.espn.... ... ron-buxton):

"Ideally the Buxton alternative would be a polished college bat, but Almora has more hitting polish than many college bats this year. One scout told me Almora was the first high school hitter he's graded who projects to eventually develop a 70 bat. There isn't a college hitter in the draft close to that.

Some scouts have compared Almora to Carlos Beltran. While Beltran was faster and Almora is a right-handed hitter, the upside and profile are very similar. Almora has the history of hitting and, most importantly, the upside and certainty necessary to consider passing on the even more tremendous upside Buxton offers."

I've also read that Almora is a really polished center fielder for a high schooler. If the college pitchers are underwhelming to the O's and they aren't ready to gamble on Giolito, I'd like to see them take long looks at Correa and Almora.

Yeah, I know...just something kinda nagging me about him. I look at Oswalt and Lincecum, and I see similar height, and the same concerns...but I see similar stuff too. I want to be more down on him being from Duke and all, but then I see all the top-flight ACC people he has shut down this season too and I think even more about it. Both of my favorite 2 pitchers this draft have a lot of risk, Giolito for the injury (Bundy was a once a decade kinda HS player, but healthy Luc is a half step behind), and Stroman for the size.

I've heard similar things on Almora, he's a little safer than Buxton with a little lower ceiling, but they are both still the kinda play I personally shy away from, so that knocks them down a couple spots just for me. Correa I am warming to, but I get nervous about the late bloomers that rise up the boards with a hot spring. Bundy people were on early, Bradley was kinda late to the party, and which would you have between the two you know? I feel like sometimes those late risers just look better than they are because you aren't really IN LOVE with what you already see and start looking for someone else to knock you over.

I'm just less and less impressed with the college guys the more I look. Appel has been really inconsistent, not even week to week, but inning to inning. Zimmer hurt his hammy this week and while I don't really care about the injury, I wasn't a huge fan to begin with. He's good and all, I just don't LOVE him. I like Gausman more, but not a ton. I'm just very MEH on all 3 of them, and I think the better bet is to gamble this year on one of the high ceiling HS kids, or really stretch and take Stroman. I just have this gut feeling in 5 years when you look back and do a hindsight draft that he would go in the top 4.

[SportsGuy]

I don't have an ESPN insider membership but I see Bundy is #1 and Machado, I believe, is #3.

Very nice!

Of course, he had to take a dig at the handling of Bundy:

The Orioles' bizarre, ultraconservative handling of Bundy aside, he didn't just dominate inferior competition in low Class A, he did it with the stuff and polish that could, in another organization, have had him in the big leagues this year or at the start of 2013

[LanceRinker]

It's unfortunate that Law is so fixated on pummeling the O's organization, many organizations really, for not doing exactly what he thinks they should be doing - and the reason it's unfortunate is because he's actually a half decent talent evaluator.

[JeremyStrain]

I doubt it's a coincidence that he pitched 30 IP flat in low A, and wouldn't be surprised to see him throw 45 IP in high A and 45 IP in AA to end the season. 30 and 60 wouldn't shock me either if he dominates high A. It's AA he's going to have to work a bit.

[SportsGuy]

BTW, he is still in position to start the season in BMore next year if the team chooses to not worry about service time....At the very least, he should be in the minors until mid April or so for service time reasons...care less about the super 2 stuff though.

[JeremyStrain]

BTW, he is still in position to start the season in BMore next year if the team chooses to not worry about service time....At the very least, he should be in the minors until mid April or so for service time reasons...care less about the super 2 stuff though.

Yeah that is asking for a Bryce Harper (looking for $250m+) situation though. I would at the fastest start him back at Bowie for a couple months next year and evaluate him then. If he breezes through May, move him up to AAA for a couple starts and then consider the ML at the end of the year.

[Greg Pappas]

"...bizzare"? Keith Law is seriously over the top on this. Anyway, while as excited about Bundy as anyone, it's important for me to remember that we need to let him develop and pitch well at higher levels, before I start considering when he'll be in Baltimore. If Dylan Bundy does arrive at any point in 2013, then I'll be very happy with that.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I doubt it's a coincidence that he pitched 30 IP flat in low A, and wouldn't be surprised to see him throw 45 IP in high A and 45 IP in AA to end the season. 30 and 60 wouldn't shock me either if he dominates high A. It's AA he's going to have to work a bit.

At-least one person locally (not me), has it on very good authority that the O's would promote him to Baltimore in September if they are still in contention. With the intent of sending him back to the Minors to begin '13.

Either way, I think he is up for good by May/June of next year.

[SportsGuy]

In his chat, he talked about how there is still some doubt Machado will stay at SS(he thinks he will but that is why Profar is ahead of him), that he believes Schoop will be an above average regular(not at SS), that Avery is still a 4th OFer but there is reason for optimism at least and that Bundy should have started in AA.

[Oriole85]

I don't have an ESPN insider membership but I see Bundy is #1 and Machado, I believe, is #3.

Very nice!

Of course, he had to take a dig at the handling of Bundy:

The Orioles' bizarre, ultraconservative handling of Bundy aside, he didn't just dominate inferior competition in low Class A, he did it with the stuff and polish that could, in another organization, have had him in the big leagues this year or at the start of 2013

I can already see someone attacking Law on Twitter saying "you hate the O's" and he'll then say "I ranked two of your prospects in the top three."

[JeremyStrain]

I doubt it's a coincidence that he pitched 30 IP flat in low A, and wouldn't be surprised to see him throw 45 IP in high A and 45 IP in AA to end the season. 30 and 60 wouldn't shock me either if he dominates high A. It's AA he's going to have to work a bit.

At-least one person locally (not me), has it on very good authority that the O's would promote him to Baltimore in September if they are still in contention. With the intent of sending him back to the Minors to begin '13.

Either way, I think he is up for good by May/June of next year.

I think that's pretty stupid honestly. Once he's up, he's up, don't insult him by sending him down to play with his service time, that's just asking for NO chance at him extending with you.

He's still a kid, and one that needs to work on his secondaries, you don't want to throw him into the thick of a pennant race while he's still not finished cooking. Yes he's very good, but he's also a teenager. Even Bryce Harper spent a year in Juco and then a year in the minors before he got called up.

[Oriole85]

It's unfortunate that Law is so fixated on pummeling the O's organization, many organizations really, for not doing exactly what he thinks they should be doing - and the reason it's unfortunate is because he's actually a half decent talent evaluator.

Always easier when you are one of the "talking heads" than when you are sitting in the office.