229 replies to this topic

[JeremyStrain]

^agreed. You can make a good case for 7 people or so at 1:1 this year. It's a weird year, on top of the new CBA stuff, it's going to be REALLY hard to predict anything.

[Luke Jackson]

You are absolutely correct on Shaffer looking the part. That kid has a big league third baseman body. I thought Reed pitched around him too, but he hit a game-winning triple in the ninth inning. The Maryland reliever ended up walking the guy before him with two outs and the game tied (d'oh!) and had to pitch to Shaffer. Then he threw Shaffer some crappy secondary pitch up in the zone and out over the plate and Richie crushed it to right center.

Kevin Brady -- good body; works quickly; simple, effortless delivery; fills up the zone; no dazzling breaking ball; Maryland hitters didn't fare well at all against him (Hockaday may have been the only MD guy to hit a pitch really hard, but it's Sunday and my memory is foggy). In watching Brady pitch, though, I had the same concerns as allstar did. Filling up the zone with a quality FB/CH combo is going to miss a lot of bats and induce a lot of weak contact against Maryland hitters and maybe even A-ball hitters, but what about at the higher levels? Is he going to miss enough bats?

As an aside, I have been to three Maryland games and freshman 3B KJ Hockaday has looked better each time I see him play. He's already Maryland's best hitter and I don't think it's close; I bet he's on the national prospect scene the year he's draft-eligible. He might be a kid that was best served going to college to work on his game and improve his draft stock but the Orioles may very well end up regret not giving him an offer he couldn't refuse (although apparently they gave him a pretty hefty offer to begin with). Physically looks the part of a third baseman and he may end up as one of Maryland's best players in recent memory. That kid could be a monster next year and his junior year.

[Luke Jackson]

Also, now that I'm a little removed from Marcus Stroman's start last week and not analyzing his every move...damn, that kid has the goods. He has the swag you want from a TORP, he has the stuff, he has the aggressiveness. All he doesn't have is height and because of that, there's some effort to his delivery. If that dude was 6-foot-3 he'd be the top pick in the draft, and a top-five pick at worst. That slider of his is simply filthy and I wonder how fast he could be in a big league 'pen if some team wanted him to max out his FB/SL combo. I'd give him the chance to start and have him work on his changeup though.

[JeremyStrain]

I said that early in the game, that if they got into a situation where they couldn't pitch around Shaffer, he was going to HURT something. He just looked way too good to be in that game, and I barely even got to see him. An oppo-field triple for a kid that big is something to note too.

Hockaday does look pretty good too. I've had my eye on him the last couple weeks and I caught a couple scouts checking him out this weekend, he's got some progressing to do, but if he keeps working the way he's going I could see him being a first round candidate in a couple years. I was telling someone the other night he kinda reminds me of a younger Shaffer, who reminds me of a younger Texieria.

[JeremyStrain]

Also, now that I'm a little removed from Marcus Stroman's start last week and not analyzing his every move...damn, that kid has the goods. He has the swag you want from a TORP, he has the stuff, he has the aggressiveness. All he doesn't have is height and because of that, there's some effort to his delivery. If that dude was 6-foot-3 he'd be the top pick in the draft, and a top-five pick at worst. That slider of his is simply filthy and I wonder how fast he could be in a big league 'pen if some team wanted him to max out his FB/SL combo. I'd give him the chance to start and have him work on his changeup though.

Yeah I told someone the other day that I'd ALMOST consider taking him at #4 his stuff is so good. That FB is a plus pitch, the slider is a plus pitch, the change has shown plus (he only threw it a couple times against us, but it was a knee-buckler) and his curve is a work in progress, just started playing with it this season but it had some crazy break to it. If he finds something to pitch inside to righties with, I think he could be a #2/3 ML pitcher.

[Luke Jackson]

Yeah I told someone the other day that I'd ALMOST consider taking him at #4 his stuff is so good. That FB is a plus pitch, the slider is a plus pitch, the change has shown plus (he only threw it a couple times against us, but it was a knee-buckler) and his curve is a work in progress, just started playing with it this season but it had some crazy break to it. If he finds something to pitch inside to righties with, I think he could be a #2/3 ML pitcher.

Assuming he has the final say on the top pick, Gary Rajsich would need huge balls to pull the trigger on a 5-foot-8 starter just because it'd be so against the grain. Top of the rotation guys tend to be big dudes who throw really hard. The no. 4 pick is a huge building block for the O's and my guess is that they'd be apt to go the safer route with one of the big college RHP's like Appel, Zimmer or Gausman. But if you're convinced Stroman can start and do it well, he has the goods to go top-10, maybe even at 1:4 in this not-great draft. And if you can get Stroman at a cheaper price than those other three arms and use the rest of your funds to get talented kids later on, you could REALLY sell me on Stroman.

This draft is so fluid that the Orioles could go any number of ways at 1:4. Hell, the Astros at 1:1 are probably looking at a bunch of guys they could realistically take.

[JeremyStrain]

Assuming he has the final say on the top pick, Gary Rajsich would need huge balls to pull the trigger on a 5-foot-8 starter just because it'd be so against the grain. Top of the rotation guys tend to be big dudes who throw really hard. The no. 4 pick is a huge building block for the O's and my guess is that they'd be apt to go the safer route with one of the big college RHP's like Appel, Zimmer or Gausman. But if you're convinced Stroman can start and do it well, he has the goods to go top-10, maybe even at 1:4 in this not-great draft. And if you can get Stroman at a cheaper price than those other three arms and use the rest of your funds to get talented kids later on, you could REALLY sell me on Stroman.

This draft is so fluid that the Orioles could go any number of ways at 1:4. Hell, the Astros at 1:1 are probably looking at a bunch of guys they could realistically take.

Yeah Nick and I were talking about this the other day. The top 10 is almost a pick out of a hat this year, you can make a case for almost all of them. I agree, I think the O's end up with one of the 3 college SP, but I just have this lingering feeling that a bunch of teams are going to look back and WISH they took Stroman wherever they are. I think if he were 6-2, he'd be the No. 1 pick and it wouldn't be close, and without those extra couple inches of downward plane I'm not sure he can stick at SP...then again, Roy Oswalt and Tim Lincecum had the same things said about them.

If I had a better feel for how this new CBA was going to change things, I'd say give him less than slot at 4 and use the rest of the money after the 10th for some kids no one else can afford to sign, BUT it's too hard to tell how that's all going to work this year. That being said, I'd take Appel if it were me, but if were were in the 6-10 range I'd think about Stroman pretty hard.

[Luke Jackson]

Yeah Nick and I were talking about this the other day. The top 10 is almost a pick out of a hat this year, you can make a case for almost all of them. I agree, I think the O's end up with one of the 3 college SP, but I just have this lingering feeling that a bunch of teams are going to look back and WISH they took Stroman wherever they are. I think if he were 6-2, he'd be the No. 1 pick and it wouldn't be close, and without those extra couple inches of downward plane I'm not sure he can stick at SP...then again, Roy Oswalt and Tim Lincecum had the same things said about them.

If I had a better feel for how this new CBA was going to change things, I'd say give him less than slot at 4 and use the rest of the money after the 10th for some kids no one else can afford to sign, BUT it's too hard to tell how that's all going to work this year. That being said, I'd take Appel if it were me, but if were were in the 6-10 range I'd think about Stroman pretty hard.

I do agree that this draft is going to be a feeling-out year with respect to the CBA, and that along with the fluid talent pool makes mock drafts this year an even more difficult task than usual. I pity the dudes who are paid to put together mock drafts this year and they themselves are mocked if they get anything wrong. Total dart-throw this year. And then you consider how important 1:4 is to the Orioles -- they badly need premium talent -- and it seems less likely they take a shot at Stroman. We'll see.

[JeremyStrain]

I do agree that this draft is going to be a feeling-out year with respect to the CBA, and that along with the fluid talent pool makes mock drafts this year an even more difficult task than usual. I pity the dudes who are paid to put together mock drafts this year and they themselves are mocked if they get anything wrong. Total dart-throw this year. And then you consider how important 1:4 is to the Orioles -- they badly need premium talent -- and it seems less likely they take a shot at Stroman. We'll see.

Yep, I agree. That's why as long as he can throw again in a couple weeks, I'd be all over Giolito. Similar ceiling to Bundy, and at this point playing it safe probably won't help much.

If you're picking at 10 it's easier to take a Stroman, because if he can't start, he can be a closer, and it's not unheard of to see a ML closer taken at 10.

Bundy/Giolito could give us a Strasburg/Zimmermann like 1-2 punch at the top, that's pretty hard for me to pass up.

[RichardZ]

No problem here if Giolito is the pick. BTW, I believe Greg Olson was a #4 overall pick as a closer. I think a high ceiling player is preferable. Of course most, if not all, of the high ceiling guys come with more risk.

[JeremyStrain]

No problem here if Giolito is the pick. BTW, I believe Greg Olson was a #4 overall pick as a closer. I think a high ceiling player is preferable. Of course most, if not all, of the high ceiling guys come with more risk.

I thought he went pretty high, but I couldn't remember where exactly so I didn't wanna quote it. Was he pegged as a closer right out of school or was there some talk about possibly starting him? I can't remember, I was young.

[RichardZ]

I don't think he pitched a day in the minors so yeah, if there were any plans to make him a starter they scrapped them pretty quickly. Went right from Auburn to the majors. Drafted in 1988, some appearances in September, and right to the team's closer for the 1989 season. Unfortunately, I am old enough to remember.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I don't think he pitched a day in the minors so yeah, if there were any plans to make him a starter they scrapped them pretty quickly. Went right from Auburn to the majors. Drafted in 1988, some appearances in September, and right to the team's closer for the 1989 season. Unfortunately, I am old enough to remember.

Man, I loved Olson. Before he got hurt, that 12/6 curve is the best I remember. I've always wondered how it compared to Blyleven's?

I do remember September '88, with Olson, Milacki, Brady, etc showing signs of life.

[JeremyStrain]

I don't think he pitched a day in the minors so yeah, if there were any plans to make him a starter they scrapped them pretty quickly. Went right from Auburn to the majors. Drafted in 1988, some appearances in September, and right to the team's closer for the 1989 season. Unfortunately, I am old enough to remember.

Haha, don't feel bad, I'm old enough to remember, I just didn't really start following baseball that closely until a year later. He pitched like 20 games or something in the minors the year he got drafted and made it up that year to BAL, but at Auburn he was a starter as a Freshman, closer as a sophomore/junior and started one game his junior year when BAL drafted him. So yeah they drafted him that high to be a closer. Interesting stuff.

[RichardZ]

My bad. I checked baseball reference and forgot to check his minors numbers. He did pitch in the minors the summer he was drafted.

[JeremyStrain]

My bad. I checked baseball reference and forgot to check his minors numbers. He did pitch in the minors the summer he was drafted.

Just a tiny cup of tea down there, easy to miss especially back then when thy didn't track things very well.

[Luke Jackson]

Anybody of interest on Virginia? They're in CP May 15-17. Wish I could've seen Hultzen in CP last year, but oh well.

[JeremyStrain]

Anybody of interest on Virginia? They're in CP May 15-17. Wish I could've seen Hultzen in CP last year, but oh well.

Branden Kline, Stephen Bruno, MAYBE one or two others. Wish I could say I'd make it to that one, but I fly out to Vegas on the 17th, so I doubt I have time to squeeze that one in.

[Stotle]

David Rawnsley is obviously a well-known guy in the industry, and I respect his experience and efforts. PG has taken some nice steps forward with regards to online content in the last two years to supplement what Rawnsley provides, including adding Pat Ebert. I agree with most of what he says above. I'm not a fan of mock drafts (particularly this early), but understand they are necessary for big media outlets tryiing to give the readers what they want.

I think some of the 2nd Round names from Garrioch and Ozga may be based on some out of date info, but I appreciate their efforts in covering the draft. As with the draft fans on this board, I encourage them to get out to see as many draft prospects as possible. I think many would be suprised how bad much of the online info is about these players -- even from some establised folks at pretty big sites.

[ChaosLex]

Could be risky given the injury concerns, but man oh man, a rotation of Bundy, Britton, Giolito, etc., could be absolutely filthy in a few years.

So, would you take the chance on his arm at #4? Rest assured, some other team in the in the first round (if not the Top 10) will, IMO?