82 replies to this topic

[RichardZ]

They drafted some JuCo guys in the later rounds, I know nothing about them but seems like the type of player with enough leverage to ask for a decent bonus.  Don't think there is an obvious huge bonus to give out like they did with Carter Young two years ago, but haven't read much on these guys so maybe a couple are worth spending all the savings to date on and into the taxable range.  We'll know in a week!

The HS guys are almost always overslot. The key is how much Layton gets in the 6th round. Willems got 1M in the 8th round as an overslot. I think 6th round slot is around 320K so the savings could go towards Layton alone. Nate George sounded like he just wanted to sign and play. He might not need that much to sign. I imagine they might take a run at Tess, the catcher, but I think they only sign one of the HS players taken after round 10. We’ll see. Last year the went 300K over on Forret and either couldn’t or didn’t want to sign Lott or Richie the two late round HS picks.

Lott seemed like a draft and follow as he went to a JC. Nate George is going the JC route if he doesn’t sign also.

[BobPhelan]

https://x.com/carlos...VUJft8skf32X07Q

https://x.com/carlos...VUJft8skf32X07Q

[BaltBird 24]

Has anyone but Overn signed for overslot yet? A lot of underslot signings.

[BobPhelan]

https://x.com/taylor...VUJft8skf32X07Q

[BobPhelan]

https://x.com/jimcal...VUJft8skf32X07Q

[dude]

I don't know anything about Taylor Lyons, but his signing plus slot is Callis' number.

 

Maybe he meant 401k OVER slot....and that's the 720k Callis had.

 

Either way, another signed guy.

[RichardZ]

I don't know anything about Taylor Lyons, but his signing plus slot is Callis' number.

Maybe he meant 401k OVER slot....and that's the 720k Callis had.

Either way, another signed guy.

I see that. Big difference as that cut into the “savings”. Unless they go over the pool money (without penalty) they’d have to sign the other two HS players, Tess and George, for either the 150K or barely over. They did get the 19th rounder signed for 150K. We’ll see.

Unless they sign Honeycutt under slot.

[Hooded Viper]

What the hell is taking so long for our #1 to sign?

[BaltBird 24]

He'll sign. Relax.

[RichardZ]

He'll sign. Relax.

They’ll sign him but what he signs for may determine if we can sign the two unsigned HS kids. It might go down to the wire.

[dude]

They’ll sign him but what he signs for may determine if we can sign the two unsigned HS kids. It might go down to the wire.

 

...easy enough for him to just say "just give me everything that is left".  He'll get something between 3.5M-3.9M.

 

I don't see the other 2 HSers as big deals.  They mentioned Layton as a top 500 HS kid, but none of them are top 250 (HS/4YR).

 

They already know what everyone wants, none of this is unplanned. Actually feels like they've spread some extra money around at this point (even on the guys under slot).

[RichardZ]

...easy enough for him to just say "just give me everything that is left". He'll get something between 3.5M-3.9M.

I don't see the other 2 HSers as big deals. They mentioned Layton as a top 500 HS kid, but none of them are top 250 (HS/4YR).

They already know what everyone wants, none of this is unplanned. Actually feels like they've spread some extra money around at this point (even on the guys under slot).

If everything is planned out, why isn't everyone signed?

[dude]

If everything is planned out, why isn't everyone signed?

 

Was that a question you actually wanted to explore? or should we just wait 4 more days (Thursday @ 5pm)

 

Personally, I'd want them to be done, but there can certainly be reasons it's not done yet.  Some teams are more or less done.  Plenty of kids that still haven't signed everywhere that we'd expect to sign this week.

[RichardZ]

Was that a question you actually wanted to explore? or should we just wait 4 more days (Thursday @ 5pm)
 
Personally, I'd want them to be done, but there can certainly be reasons it's not done yet.  Some teams are more or less done.  Plenty of kids that still haven't signed everywhere that we'd expect to sign this week.

When I ask questions I’d like answers, not explorations. But, let’s wait the 4 days. I’m sure that will be less painful.

[dude]

When I ask questions I’d like answers, not explorations. But, let’s wait the 4 days. I’m sure that will be less painful.

 

I don't know why they aren't signed.  Could be any combination of things like...

 

- Some of them are signed and we just know it yet (not reported yet)

- They're scheduled for their physicals this week and everything is done, just waiting to get that complete

- Someone else got involved after whatever verbal agreements/discussions there were with the Scouts and they are still negotiating....one thing on this, they seem to have some formula they want to stick too....why sign a guy for $2900 under slot?...I mean, do they need the $2900? ...are we that close? So I could see them holding onto some formula generated number and if someone wants to hold out to get the 150k instead of the $112,500, do they play chicken just on principle? I have no idea.

- It's also possible the weekend isn't a great time for the signings (there's kids everywhere getting completed) or maybe their trying to get a window to rework Javy Baez's contract, I don't know...

 

I'd suggest/assume they know what they need to do, they worked with all of the kids they drafted and they'll get inked by Thursday @ 5.  We have over 500k to play with and it doesn't seem like they have any players that they reached on.  We'll see.

[RichardZ]

I don't know why they aren't signed. Could be any combination of things like...

- Some of them are signed and we just know it yet (not reported yet)
- They're scheduled for their physicals this week and everything is done, just waiting to get that complete
- Someone else got involved after whatever verbal agreements/discussions there were with the Scouts and they are still negotiating....one thing on this, they seem to have some formula they want to stick too....why sign a guy for $2900 under slot?...I mean, do they need the $2900? ...are we that close? So I could see them holding onto some formula generated number and if someone wants to hold out to get the 150k instead of the $112,500, do they play chicken just on principle? I have no idea.
- It's also possible the weekend isn't a great time for the signings (there's kids everywhere getting completed) or maybe their trying to get a window to rework Javy Baez's contract, I don't know...

I'd suggest/assume they know what they need to do, they worked with all of the kids they drafted and they'll get inked by Thursday @ 5. We have over 500k to play with and it doesn't seem like they have any players that they reached on. We'll see.

All of those things are quite possible. It’s also possible that George is akin to Qrey Lott from last year. A player headed to a JC that they want to draft and follow. It’s possible that Tess is akin to Kollin Richie from last year, headed to a university and if they had enough money left, they could persuade him to sign. I don’t know if either scenario is actually true but we didn’t sign either one last year.

It’s possible we are trying to save 200-400K on Honeycutt and his agent and the Orioles are playing a game of chicken leading up to the deadline. That game could determine the signing of one or both of the HS kids. The Orioles, I’m sure, do and did have a plan but it’s quite possible that part of the plan was based on something unknowable, whether they could sign Honeycutt for under slot. Or, Tess could have been a contingency plan if Layton changed his mind.

They had a plan last year and left two HS kids unsigned when all was said and done. They could have a plan this year and we could wind up with two HS kids unsigned. You think every pick will be signed. I actually hope you’re right but I certainly think they’re are valid reasons to be skeptical of that.

You also mentioned the 500K we have to play with. Are you talking about the allowable amount over the total pool money? I believe we did that in order to sign Carter Young in 2022 but I don’t believe they went over the pool number last year. Just saying, it’s not a sure thing they believe they have 500K to play with. I think we had saved about 460K before the Layton signing and he was a 402K overslot. I’m going by memory so I could be wrong.

[Mackus]

The went a little bit into the taxable range last year. Used all of that range two years ago.

I'm of the opinion that you should use all of it every year. Draft bonuses are the most cost-effective way to add talent. 75% tax sounds big, but it's a small amount overall. Not using that money is a mistake (unless it's the result of better than expected negotiating, which can happen a year here and there but not more often than not) on the order of simply declining to ever use a 4th round pick. Just consider 103.75% of your allocation as the baseline and build everything off of that.

If they are going to draw the line in negotiations at the original bonus pool limit and not the taxable limit, I have a problem with that. On the other hand, you can't just fold and give in to the last holdouts every year or else you'll have more holdouts in the future.

[makoman]

I’ll maintain they only went into the tax two years ago because it was mostly already budgeted due to not signing a guy. The slot amount went down, but the budget stayed roughly the same, at least close enough Elias could argue or take a bit from elsewhere. It’s dumb but we know how the Angelos family budgets. With new ownership, who knows.

[Mackus]

I’ll maintain they only went into the tax two years ago because it was mostly already budgeted due to not signing a guy. The slot amount went down, but the budget stayed roughly the same, at least close enough Elias could argue or take a bit from elsewhere. It’s dumb but we know how the Angelos family budgets. With new ownership, who knows.

 

Yeah, good point.  This always seemed like such a stupid thing to be petty over, which fit the Angelos mold well.  New ownership we'll have to see but they've gotta understand the economics of how much ROI they get on these draft lottery tickets versus free agency.

[RichardZ]

Andrew Tess does have an Oriole banner on his Twitter account. Would someone do that if they hadn’t signed or thought they weren’t going to sign?