153 replies to this topic

[dude]

Is Dominguez not a prospect anymore? Cause he'd be higher than that, IMO.

 

The report was Spencer Jones (OF).  He was #1 on the 2023 list and Dominguez jumped him on the top 100 in 2024, but the Team lists aren't out yet.  Dominguez is out for the year.

[mweb08]

Yeah, but that guy (OF Spencer Jones) is ranked in the 80s on the top 100.  Thank goodness NYY balked on that.

 

He's ranked #15 on fangraphs fyi.

[Pedro Cerrano]

Does any body really think he'll pitch this year? When was the last time you heard about some pitcher have an arm injury but not ending up needing TJ?

People have cited several examples on this board.

[Mackus]

Does any body really think he'll pitch this year? When was the last time you heard about some pitcher have an arm injury but not ending up needing TJ? 

 

 

Anthony DeScalfani in 2017, has never had surgery: https://www.mlb.com/...gery-c219458552

Jacob DeGrom in 2021 (eventually needed surgery in 2023): https://www.northjer...son/5748894001/

Max Fried in 2023 (forearm strain, returned healthy): https://www.sporting...fcvoafessreddun

Zach Britton in 2017 (forearm strain, no surgery until 2022): https://www.cbssport...nd-examination/'

Mason Miller in 2023 (UCL sprain, returned to BP at end of year) https://www.mlb.com/...elbow-diagnosis

Nathan Eovaldi in 2023 (forearm strain, missed about 8 week) https://www.cbssport...scherzer-trade/

Clayton Kershaw in 2021 (PRP to treat forearm injury, returned to begin 2022, eventual shoulder surgery after 2023) https://theathletic....ter-arm-injury/

Stephen Strasburg in 2016 (PRP in Sept, returned healthy to begin 2017) https://www.washingt...n-availability/

Aaron Nola in 2016 (PRP in Aug, returned healthy to begin 2017, has never had surgery): https://www.nbcsport...d-flexor-tendon

Masahiro Tanaka in 2014 (PRP, missed ~10 weeks, never had surgery): https://www.espn.com...tially-torn-ucl

 

I'll add more as I find them.  It's a tricky search, because often times its just diagnosed as "forearm tightness" or similar.  If they stick with "sprain" as the terminology, then there is hope.  Hell if he's throwing, there is hope.  If they say "partial tear" its bleak.  A sprain is technically a partial tear, so still some ambiguity.  A full tear would be obviously done.

[BaltBird 24]

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

I've got faith in Elias, new ownership, and the coaching staff.

[Mackus]

Elias quote from Andy Koska:

I do want to be clear that we're expecting both [Bradish, Means] back, so I don'y want to go crazy ringing the alarm bells there.

[BaltBird 24]

GM speak. They had us thinking a Bautista return was possible last year. I love Elias, but I'll take what he says with a grain of salt. I'll expect Bradish to be done for the year until I see him back on the mound.

As for Means, who knows with him.

[BaltBird 24]

Elias won't comment on Bauer, but did see his tweet.

[dude]

I don't want to start a bunch of replacement thoughts (but I will anyway) on these issues because I'm comfortable with them playing out a little While we know a lot externally (information), we don't have internal (like medicals).  Recent Mike Elias comments say they are still expecting both to pitch meaningfully for the Orioles this year so that's good.  We'll see.

 

FAs:

People talk about like like Montgomery and Snell (don't want Snell on the team) and there's guys like Lorenzen and Ryu....but they'll all likely not be options for different reasons.

 

If I was the agent for Zach Davies or Brad Keller, I'd be on the phone hours ago trying to put together a deal.  Pending other info (Bradish related), it could be something like a split contract with a few more ML dollars on the roster with an opt out (like May 1) if he wants.  These deals were more common in recent yers but (apparently) some of the rostering decisions have changed this (lower risk) approach for most teams.

 

On the trade front....there's actually lots of places to look.

 

2 for 1. The Angels have been connected to the higher end pitchers, but Tyler Anderson was bad for them in 2023.  After a monster 2022 with the cross-town Dodgers, he's owed 13M this year (and next) and replacing him on the roster with a Snell or Montgomery could make sense for them. That's as easy as it gets if that's interesting.  He's negative value so it only costs you cash (nice to think that's an option now)...but if you wanted to try a little more....Kremer is a CA guy and both him and Detmers are nearly identical in their performance/service profiles.  While I like Kremer, I'd prefer the LHer for the Orioles.  Even if the Angels prefer Detmers to Kremer, if you use Anderson as a carrot, that's probably in play.

 

Make Lemonade. The Washington Nationals would love to move Patrick Corbin.  He may not be great (he was at one point) but he's taken the ball and logs innings.  Like other players, if you believe you can find the most out of him, having another LHer in the Orioles rotation - with a good defense - could elevate his performance.  He doesn't have to be great, getting anything close to League Average would be important.  IF you were willing to take on some of the contract (injuries are a lemon, made some lemonade), there's certainly ways to leverage prospect value for the orioles.  We can leave that discussion for later.

 

What's in the Cards.  Steven Matz is another failed signing.  If you think you like something about him....they'll use the kid they got from the Orioles last year and pay you half his contract to try him somewhere else.

 

Utterly wiling to wait until we see where these guys.  Like our rotation a lot so totally good going with these guys if they're able, but if they aren't, there's no crying in Baseball....step up and figure out the next move.  That's the job.

[Pedro Cerrano]

Corbin? We’d be the laughingstock of baseball if we took him on. We aren’t trying to take on someone else’s garbage in order to augment the farm system. This is what teams that aren’t in contention do.

And I don’t think the Nats are desperate to move him. It’s the last year of his deal. Worst case you Ol’ Yeller him and shrug your shoulders. Lesson learned

[BobPhelan]

I’d re-sign Matt Harvey before I traded for Corbin.

[mdrunning]

I’d re-sign Matt Harvey before I traded for Corbin.

We could offer Washington a case of warm beer. If they insist on having it cold, they'll have to throw in a comp pick.

[jamesdean]

GM speak. They had us thinking a Bautista return was possible last year. I love Elias, but I'll take what he says with a grain of salt. I'll expect Bradish to be done for the year until I see him back on the mound.

As for Means, who knows with him.

Means is chinaware and there's no way I can envision him ever pitching an entire season, even if he does make his way back.  Sometimes, they just don't ever recover from the surgery.  As far as Bradish goes, once you've sprained that ligament, Tommy John is right around the corner.  Good luck trying to keep him on the mound. 

[BSLSteveBirrer]

It's not ideal, but we can absolutely still survive with Burnes, Rodriguez, Wells, Kremer, Irvin/Means.

A lot will depend on Rodriguez developing into the pitcher Bradish was in 2023.

It would also be nice if Kremer can return to 2022 level performance.

Wells is a very capable pitcher as we know, obviously durability as the season rolls in is an issue.

Irvin can be a serviceable 5th starter. He'll be needed for sure.

The problem is that its no better (well perhaps a bit better) than what we had last year. Instead of an upgraded rotation we are back to 3 good starters (Burnes, GRod, and Kremer), two potentially good starters who are doubtful to provide a full season if even a half (Means and Wells), and then a #5 guy in Irvin.

 

Now IF, and IMO that's a huge IF, Wells and Means are truly healthy and can go 30 starts we will be in great shape. But I'll be crossing my fingers that we get 20 starts from them.

[Mike in STL]

He's #41 on MLB. O's have #1, #17, #19, #30, #32.

I would rank him higher. He’s going to be Mickey Mantle with speed. Maybe the injury lowers his rank.

[Mackus]

I would rank him higher. He’s going to be Mickey Mantle with speed. Maybe the injury lowers his rank.

 

#16 by BA.  #39 by Baseball Prospectus.  He's a very good prospect, but the O's have several that are on the same tier, maybe regarded as equal or better or worse depending on the evaluation.  He's also reportedly not the guy Chicago asked for, so probably irrelevant. 

 

Dominguez has a 780 OPS (117 OPS+) as a 20 y/o at AA last year.  When Mickey Mantle was 20 he had a 925 OPS (162 OPS+) and finished 3rd in MVP voting.  So maybe pump the brakes a little on that specific comparison.  He had a phenomenal debut, for sure.

[Slidemaster]

I would rank him higher. He’s going to be Mickey Mantle with speed. Maybe the injury lowers his rank.

He's going to be a top 10-15 all time player?

[Mackus]

I think if they go sign Lorenzen or Ryu or trade for a similar cheap backend SP, that'd be a pretty grim indicator of their outlook on Bradish.  Going for a bigger splash of Montgomery, Snell, Cease, or Luzardo probably means the same thing, but would also have longer-term benefit so doesn't as directly imply that they are expecting the worse for Bradish.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I think if they go sign Lorenzen or Ryu or trade for a similar cheap backend SP, that'd be a pretty grim indicator of their outlook on Bradish. Going for a bigger splash of Montgomery, Snell, Cease, or Luzardo probably means the same thing, but would also have longer-term benefit so doesn't as directly imply that they are expecting the worse for Bradish.

They need to get someone regardless. I actually think the news on Means is more concerning at this moment

[Mike in STL]

He's going to be a top 10-15 all time player?

He's a switch hitter who will probably have 40/40 season, maybe even a 50/40 season before he ages out of the speed element.

 

Jasson Dominguez Scouting Report - Is The Hype Real? (prospects1500.com)

 

Dominguez, a switch-hitting center fielder, has been compared to the likes of Mickey Mantle, Mike Trout, and Bo Jackson.

Not just my opinion. Others feel the same. (Article from 2021)