322 replies to this topic

[Mackus]

I like all of these prospects, but I'd give up the package Bob stated for Luzardo. 3 years control left is huge. Also would get to say "Nobody effs with the Jesus" about 10.5 times per 9 innings, and can't really put a price tag on that.

Would give up a lot more for Luzardo than Cease. Only hesitation would be the headliner, I wouldn't include Mayo in a Cease trade. I might consider it for Luzardo if that was the only way.

Mountcastle might make sense in a Miami trade, moreso or at least instead of Hays. They had abysmal 1B production last year. Maybe they've addressed that already and I'm forgetting.

[Pedro Cerrano]

Guys don’t get me excited!

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Infield prob the ideal target for Mia. They prob are good with rolling with their 3 young higher upside OFers in Chisolm, De la Cruz, and Sanchez. But they could use help anywhere in the Inf including DH. Arraez seems to be their only quality Inf. I say that knowing nothing about their farm system. Maybe they have some high ranked Infield prospects.


The only concern with Luzardo is the big jump in innings. Went from 100 in '22 to 178 in '23.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

As pessimistic as I was about signing any significant FA  its always made so much sense that a bigger trade or two would be made.  Always likely it would be the middle- later portion of  the offseason as well. Still have to matchup with another team and have the trigger pulled but Im optimistic some things get done

[Mackus]

I remain pessimistic (at least as far as "some things" mean making an impact trade), but can't argue with the logic.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I remain pessimistic (at least as far as "some things" mean making an impact trade), but can't argue with the logic.

Maybe they end up just moving Urias and or Mateo in smaller deals but they just have to do some things. I see no world where they send all of Cowser, Norby, Ortiz, Mayo, Holliday, etc back to AAA.

[dude]

I’m willing to negotiate.

 

They want Holliday.

[dude]

The Marlins desperately need a SS.  Discussed many places previously.

 

They traded for Jake Burger last year to play 3B.

Arraez is playing 2B.

They have Josh Bell at 1B for 2024 and could be a bridge to a guy like Jacob Berry.

 

You can ask about anyone you want, but simply asking about them doesn't make them reasonably available.  With 3 years of control, I don't see a reason that the marlins would want sell him off in a reasonable package that doesn't help them anywhere.  Maybe they're just dumb and desperately want to give him to the Orioles.

 

They'll ask for Holliday.  The Orioles say, no.

OK, then Basallo, Ortiz, Cowser and Jose DeLeon.

You think that's ridiculous, but they don't care, because they aren't trying to move him, you asked, you don't want to pay, whatever, they don't have to trade him.

 

The Marlins do have a number of guys they can't fit into the rotation, so that means you can make a more reasonable deal for someone like Trevor Rogers.  He was really good in 2021 (when Luzardo was really bad) but he's struggled some since with both performance and availability....and he's probably the odd man out of the Fish's rotation right now.

 

Ortiz for Rogers? 

[Slidemaster]

Honestly if every team takes a "give us Holliday or you get nothing," type mentality, I'm willing to go into 2024 with what we have until they grow a brain or they don't give us the "top farm system" tax.

The only guy I'm trading Holliday for is a guy like Spencer Strider.

[BobPhelan]

They want Holliday.

 

Well every team knows they're not getting him so hopefully they're willing to negotiate too. Same goes for Basallo honestly. Mayo could be pried away.

[dude]

Well every team knows they're not getting him so hopefully they're willing to negotiate too. Same goes for Basallo honestly. Mayo could be pried away.

 

Couple things...I agree with you about the 'best system' tax.  I said this several times before and several mocked it.  It's not unique to the Orioles.  It's not even unique to Baseball. Look at the Glasnow trade and how reasonable it was from a Rays perspective, dealing with a team with a loaded system and money.  What's different there?  I'd argue relationships matter.  ALL of this is Cost of Availability.

 

Second, I don't think the negotiation is for less or a more reasonable package.  I don't think the Fish came to the Orioles looking for Ortiz, Norby, Hays and Stowers and the Orioles are like...hmmmmm....it's going to take Luzado.  The Marlins can hold whatever unreasonable price they want.  They start with Holliday, not because they think they'll get him, but they want to establish the pain threshold you have to meet.  You don't get less pain for Luzado, you get different pain in the same amount.

 

If I'm them, I don't take less than a package that starts with Basallo.  I'm (back to Os side) not trading Basallo for Luzado either so I'm walking away.  I don't have a hard-on for Luzado (I'd rather have Burnes), but if I did, the other way to attack Miami is to take contracts.  We've seen that impact in both the Glasnow trade and several deals with the Braves.  Avisail Garcia (2/29) is a bad contract right now.  I think they're OK with Bell for a year, but that's another 16M chip.  So you replace Garcia on their roster with Cowser and Bell with Mayo and you are attacking their interest in a different way.  Expand that in a couple more ways and we're talking.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Ortiz/Westburg, Mountcastle and if you have to add one more Stowers. Get it done.

 

Ortiz/Westburg and Cowser. Get it done.

 

Ortiz/Westburg and Mayo. Get it done.

[weird-O]

Well every team knows they're not getting him so hopefully they're willing to negotiate too. Same goes for Basallo honestly. Mayo could be pried away.

This is a bit off topic, but Basallo is mentioned frequently (here and other places). I can't help but wonder, is he the future behind the plate, or is Adley still the Man? 

[Mackus]

This is a bit off topic, but Basallo is mentioned frequently (here and other places). I can't help but wonder, is he the future behind the plate, or is Adley still the Man? 

 

It's hard to imagine him being better defensively than Rutschman.  But it's pretty easy and fun to imagine a shared role where one catches and the other DHs every day.  Avoid running down either with a lot of catching and avoid having to start a traditional backup catcher for 40+ games a year.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

IMO hes the highest upside bat in the system. So you may not want to catch him often. There is also the thought he might outgrow the position or not be able to handle it defensively. The arm is strong enough. We will see about the other aapects of catching defensively.

[Slidemaster]

Maybe one of them can eventually transition to 1st.

[Mackus]

Also, less fun to consider, is that by the time Basallo is starting a season in Baltimore, Adley might be on his way out.  Adley has 4 years left.  Could still be 1.5-2 years before Basallo reaches MLB (especially if needing to improve his defense to MLB catcher levels).  He'll only be 19 next year, so he's insanely young still.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I mean hes in AA now so its not out of the question if the bat is that good they rush his bat and just say forget trying to get better defensively behind the plate. You are a 1b/DH.

[mikezpen]

If they do what they SHOULD do and extend Rutschman, Basallo becomes expendable for a Luzardo deal. I wouldn't trade him for Cease, though.

[Mackus]

I mean hes in AA now so its not out of the question if the bat is that good they rush his bat and just say forget trying to get better defensively behind the plate. You are a 1b/DH.

 

He's had 16 PA at AA.  That's where he begins the year and he could conceivably move fast enough to reach Baltimore by the end of 2024.  But I think given his extremely young age and that he's a catcher and that they've got quite a few promising prospect bats ahead of him (Mayo, Kjerstad, Norby, Cowser), that they go with a slower pace for him.