54 replies to this topic

[Mackus]

Physical passed already, btw.

Good start. Now let's finish the job with another solid or better RP and a really good SP.

[You Play to Win the Game]

1/13 - not sure why, but I expected more. Nice. Welcome to the nest.

[mweb08]

Physical passed already, btw.

Good start. Now let's finish the job with another solid or better RP and a really good SP.

Yes please!

[CantonJester]

1/13 - not sure why, but I expected more. Nice. Welcome to the nest.

 

Nobody was giving him two years, and there’s a reason for that beyond his age. He was in the bottom 4% of MLB in allowed hard contact and batters averaged an exit velo of 90.1 mph. Sportrac predicted one year, 9.5m. So at least according to one prognosticator, the O’s overpaid. 

 

My guess is if they didn’t shove the LF wall back so far, Elias wouldn’t touch this guy with a ten foot pole.

[BSLRoseKatz]

Highest AAV of any Elias era contract by 3M (Gibson) so that's reasonably encouraging...maybe

[You Play to Win the Game]

Highest AAV of any Elias era contract by 3M (Gibson) so that's reasonably encouraging...maybe

It’s hard for me to see it that way. It just means there’s less resources left over for whatever else they’re planning. But this needed to happen.

[dude]

I am totally good with the signing.  My preferred option given all of the factors that matter.

 

I don't actually care about the money, so the contract is largely irrelevant.  The deal as a 1+1 gives the Orioles some flexibility based on Bautista's recovery. 

 

I'll make another comment on this, but my comment is just a comment and doesn't distract from the above comment.

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1/13 - not sure why, but I expected more. Nice. Welcome to the nest.

 

I expected less. Like I said, I have no issues with the money, but the Orioles didn't win 101 games last year by convincing people to come here.  I'd have preferred a scenario where Kimbrel sought out the Orioles.  Where he can say (and mean it) that he had better offers, but this is where he wanted to close.  It's the most important aspect of winning in every year.  Maybe the Orioles didn't overpay him and this contract is 'right' (whatever that means....the market does seem 2-3M/yr heavy with the signings we've seen so far)....

 

...but I'll have trouble believing that, at this point given the contract.

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Hoping for a 40+ save season.  He's competing with Kenley Jansen on the All-Time list this year.  Blow him away.

[dude]

It’s hard for me to see it that way. It just means there’s less resources left over for whatever else they’re planning. But this needed to happen.

 

That would be my only other point.  I'd guess they still move Santander to free up this money, but if his 2024 was closer to 8M, you could probably get there with some of the simpler arbitration level trades.  At 12M in 2024, that's basically Santander and we'll see if they have any appetite for adding more to the 70M range if they still want another starter.

 

There's no mystery to the math, so we'll see what they do.

[dude]

For the References to his Savant page HERE IT IS

 

Nobody was giving him two years, and there’s a reason for that beyond his age. He was in the bottom 4% of MLB in allowed hard contact and batters averaged an exit velo of 90.1 mph. 

 

Not worried about this.  His performance has generally included poorer hard hit, barrel, bb% and exit velo numbers.  In 2017 he had one of his better seasons (69 IP, 1.43 ERA) and his exit velo, barrel and hard hit was all in bottom 1%.

 

Not saying it's good to be terrible there, just saying he's generally produced results despite it.

[BSLRoseKatz]

It’s hard for me to see it that way. It just means there’s less resources left over for whatever else they’re planning. But this needed to happen.

 

Yeah I'm not gonna blame anyone for assuming the worst but last year they spent 5M on the bullpen (Givens) and this year it's already at 13M so they might be expanding the budget to the point of being more respectable 

[CantonJester]

For the References to his Savant page HERE IT IS

 

 

Not worried about this.  His performance has generally included poorer hard hit, barrel, bb% and exit velo numbers.  In 2017 he had one of his better seasons (69 IP, 1.43 ERA) and his exit velo, barrel and hard hit was all in bottom 1%.

 

Not saying it's good to be terrible there, just saying he's generally produced results despite it.

 

He's not that guy anymore. 

[BaltBird 24]

He's not that guy anymore.

Still a whole lot of red on that baseball savant page even last season.

[CantonJester]

Still a whole lot of red on that baseball savant page even last season.

 

Stats are used to rationalize all decisions. Doesn't mean this was a smart move. 

[TwentyThirtyFive]

It was a smart move. People bitch to bitch. Kimbrel might be bad next year but getting a proven closer was a smart decision.  There were essentially 3 available unless Im missing someone. Hader, Kimbrel, Robertson. Hader wasnt in the price range and honestly whoever gives him that Edwin Diaz contract could very easily regret it. He still would have been  1st choice but not by much over Kimbrel considering the financial commitment to each. Robertson is a clear step down from Kimbrel. Ideally, they sign another solid RP though Im not expecting that to happen. 

[dude]

He's not that guy anymore. 

 

I'm not sure what you're using to do the evaluation you're doing.

 

He struck out 94 guys and gave up 44 hits in 69 innings last year.

 

I lost my fantasy league last year because I had Bautista, Jansen and Devin Williams, picked up Kimbrel, had a big lead in saves....traded Jansen for Bradish and then Bautista goes down and Jose Alvarado comes back from injury and replaces Kimbrel in the 9th.  I go from 4 closers to 1 and lose saves by a couple and the League by one point.

 

Kimbrel is going to have some bad games.  Everyone does, don't freak out.  He's going to have a bunch of 3 strikeout innings too.

 

You need a bridge back to Bautista.  The 1+1 gives the Orioles some insurance on his recovery.

 

Kimbrel is climbing into the top5 All-Time on the Saves list.  He's going to be super motivated to succeed.

[russsnyder]

I'm good with the signing. The guy has had an excellent career and it looks like he still missed enough bats last year to be placed in high leverage situations. However, like a few others have mentioned, I'd like to see them add another bullpen piece. I think they need the depth and they need some additional protection for regression by others.

[russsnyder]

It was a smart move. People bitch to bitch. Kimbrel might be bad next year but getting a proven closer was a smart decision. There were essentially 3 available unless Im missing someone. Hader, Kimbrel, Robertson. Hader wasnt in the price range and honestly whoever gives him that Edwin Diaz contract could very easily regret it. He still would have been 1st choice but not by much over Kimbrel considering the financial commitment to each. Robertson is a clear step down from Kimbrel. Ideally, they sign another solid RP though Im not expecting that to happen.

I think both a smart and relatively safe move.

You're getting a tested veteran who will embrace the closer role for a team that has expectations of being a serious contender.

People can question the move of course, however, I think you can safely say that the Orioles have a good closer on their staff for 2024.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Also like the option. If he has another year like he just had you have the option to bring him back. Or if Felix has a setback. We dont know what we will see from a healthy Felix in '25 anyway. Only 1 mil to buy out the option.

[Mike B]

I would have prefered a different closer, but after studying the numbers he had a good year in 23 that just ended ugly.  He wasn't in my top 3 or 4 closer choices but okay, now keep busy and add at least one more BP arm and the starter that they need.  

[BSLChrisStoner]

• Kimbrel on urgency of joining O's: 'I want to win'