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2024 Orioles General Talk


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#1661 Slidemaster

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Posted 11 May 2024 - 09:58 PM

Apparently Oakland is asking for 2 top-100 guys and are willing to keep him if they don't get that. It makes some sense, they have a lot of team control left.

If I were them I would actually feel a fair amount of pressure to trade him soon (even if that's not how they're posturing in negotiations).

Everyone knows his arm is going to blow up. He already had a ligament injury and he throws 103. I actually don't even think I want him after some thought because it is a practical certainty that he needs TJ within 24 months. The quicker they unload him for a haul the better for them.

#1662 hallas

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Posted 12 May 2024 - 07:28 AM

If I were them I would actually feel a fair amount of pressure to trade him soon (even if that's not how they're posturing in negotiations).

Everyone knows his arm is going to blow up. He already had a ligament injury and he throws 103. I actually don't even think I want him after some thought because it is a practical certainty that he needs TJ within 24 months. The quicker they unload him for a haul the better for them.


I agree with your take but given how tough arms are to come by... I also kind of get it. They could well think he could turn into Logan Gilbert if he goes back to starting, which seems more plausible if he recovers from TJ.

I'd still want him and I'd give up a lot for him. Norby/Kjerstad is a yes from me.

#1663 Slidemaster

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Posted 12 May 2024 - 11:34 AM

I agree with your take but given how tough arms are to come by... I also kind of get it. They could well think he could turn into Logan Gilbert if he goes back to starting, which seems more plausible if he recovers from TJ.

I'd still want him and I'd give up a lot for him. Norby/Kjerstad is a yes from me.

I can't help but think we'd be giving up both of them for 3 months of pitching before he needs 18 months to recover from surgery, and he probably isnt on the postseason roster anyway (just like Felix last year). Miller was interviewed on MLB network radio recently and was asked if continuing to throw 103 was sustainable. His answer was essentially "I guess we'll see."

He knows he's going to need TJ like everyone else does.

Even with 4 more years of team control post surgery, that's a bad proposition to me. Part of what makes him exceptional is the velocity, and that will be the first thing to go after surgery.

We've seen relievers throw this hard before. None of them (save for Chapman) have lasted more than a year or so.

#1664 BSLRoseKatz

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Posted 12 May 2024 - 10:07 PM

New Statcast data for swing speed has Gunnar and Mountcastle in the top 20

 

https://baseballsava...tDirection=desc


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#1665 jamesdean

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Posted 13 May 2024 - 06:12 AM

I can't help but think we'd be giving up both of them for 3 months of pitching before he needs 18 months to recover from surgery, and he probably isnt on the postseason roster anyway (just like Felix last year). Miller was interviewed on MLB network radio recently and was asked if continuing to throw 103 was sustainable. His answer was essentially "I guess we'll see."

He knows he's going to need TJ like everyone else does.

Even with 4 more years of team control post surgery, that's a bad proposition to me. Part of what makes him exceptional is the velocity, and that will be the first thing to go after surgery.

We've seen relievers throw this hard before. None of them (save for Chapman) have lasted more than a year or so.

Yeah, if you could look into to a crystal ball and see that Miller would still be healthy a few years from now with the same nasty stuff, then I'd be all in with the trade.  But the odds of that happening are slim to none.  You're probably looking at maybe a year's worth of having him on the mound.  And I would think the A's will want Mayo, not Norby or Kjerstad.  Because of the volatile nature of pitcher's arms today, I pass.  



#1666 CantonJester

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Posted 13 May 2024 - 06:32 AM

Yeah, if you could look into to a crystal ball and see that Miller would still be healthy a few years from now with the same nasty stuff, then I'd be all in with the trade.  But the odds of that happening are slim to none.  You're probably looking at maybe a year's worth of having him on the mound.  And I would think the A's will want Mayo, not Norby or Kjerstad.  Because of the volatile nature of pitcher's arms today, I pass.  

 

If it were a deal centered around Mayo and another prospect for Miller and another pitching prospect?

 

I’m not saying they should do it, but Mayo’s bat projects to be obtainable every FA class. He’s likely a DH/1B. 



#1667 Mackus

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Posted 13 May 2024 - 06:58 AM

Last year Miller went through what Bradish did this year.  He bounced back from that.  I'd agree he's more likely than most to need Tommy John, and a second Tommy John is a much less likely recovery than a first last time I checked.  I wouldn't deal Mayo or Basallo for him even if he hadn't already had a ligament scare.  But I would lead a package with Kjerstad.  Kjerstad and Norby is an incredibly steep price, probably wouldn't go that high, which means I'm probably not trading for him.



#1668 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 13 May 2024 - 07:05 AM

Spending any real time on Miller is useless. You call and go back and forth a bit with Oak and find out where each of you are but its not a gap youre gonna want to work on closing. Focus on some of the other guys likely to be available that are closer to FA. Things can change fast, but the BP has settled in a bit for now. Prob bought us some time. For one, it would be nice to know if Wells is going to make it back. Im not getting good vibes about him though.

#1669 Mackus

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Posted 13 May 2024 - 07:13 AM

Spending any real time on Miller is useless. You call and go back and forth a bit with Oak and find out where each of you are but its not a gap youre gonna want to work on closing. Focus on some of the other guys likely to be available that are closer to FA. Things can change fast, but the BP has settled in a bit for now. Prob bought us some time. For one, it would be nice to know if Wells is going to make it back. Im not getting good vibes about him though.


Definitely agree no deal possible right now. But if we get to July and Oakland has fielded a bunch of offers that are well below the crazy Mayo + Basallo idea, then perhaps they decide to cash out now and take a more reasonable package. Then you only need to be at everybody else and not just meet Oakland's insane ask. Probably still no bridging the gap between what Oakland wants and what everyone else is offering, but I think there is a better chance in two months than right now.

#1670 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 15 May 2024 - 10:35 AM

Im not starting the game thread but Tor is skipping Bassitt today. We get the much better Kuchuchi. Also no Hays. Why call him up if you arent starting him today vs the lefty. Mullins and Cowser both in the lineup

#1671 Mackus

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Posted 15 May 2024 - 10:41 AM


Im not starting the game thread but Tor is skipping Bassitt today. We get the much better Kuchuchi. Also no Hays. Why call him up if you arent starting him today vs the lefty. Mullins and Cowser both in the lineup


Agree, that's confusing. Maybe don't wanna push his injury (hamstring?) on a wet field? Only borderline justifiable reason I can think of and it raises other concerns.

#1672 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 19 May 2024 - 09:24 AM

Thus far the O's have scored 215 runs averaging exactly 5.0 runs/game

 

Their current record is 28 and 15.

 

If the O's had scored 5 runs in all 43 games thus far their record would be:

 

32 and 12. Three 'ties'' since the opponent also scored 5 runs.

 

So the bottom line is that while the O's do score a lot of runs and win a lot of games...duh... a more consistent offense would end up in quite a bit better results. I suspect a lot of teams have similar run scoring spreads. But at the end of the day this lots or not much offense can hurt you in the short term, i.e., the playoffs. I hope to see this team start to hit much more consistently as we get into summer.



#1673 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 19 May 2024 - 09:43 AM

The primary 'issue' with the offense is that they are just 21st overall in on-base %. 

 

(8th overall in runs scored, 1st in slugging, 11th batting average.)



#1674 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 19 May 2024 - 10:03 AM

The primary 'issue' with the offense is that they are just 21st overall in on-base %. 

 

(8th overall in runs scored, 1st in slugging, 11th batting average.)

I think that's correct Chris. I was going to look at HRs by how many men are on base but I am sure we have a ton of solo shots. I just took an easier look. The O's are 28th in baseball in walks with 115.

 

For teams that would be in the AL playoffs if the season ended  today here are the numbers:

 

Yankees - 187

Orioles - 115

Guardians - 137

Mariners - 142

Royals - 127

Twins - 131

Rays - 149

 

I get the O's aggressive hitting approach but not taking walks, and especially the one pitch outs they make needs improvement.



#1675 jamesdean

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Posted 19 May 2024 - 11:05 AM

I think that's correct Chris. I was going to look at HRs by how many men are on base but I am sure we have a ton of solo shots. I just took an easier look. The O's are 28th in baseball in walks with 115.

 

For teams that would be in the AL playoffs if the season ended  today here are the numbers:

 

Yankees - 187

Orioles - 115

Guardians - 137

Mariners - 142

Royals - 127

Twins - 131

Rays - 149

 

I get the O's aggressive hitting approach but not taking walks, and especially the one pitch outs they make needs improvement.

I'm not sure how you improve it other than ordering them to take more pitches, especially early in counts.  There's a fine line between being aggressive and just flailing away aimlessly.  I realize hitting the pitchers today is difficult, but you have to do a better job of having plate discipline, being patient, working counts, and when you do swing, hopefully it's something you can handle and drive.  This hacking away at anything within a foot of the plate in any direction is problematic.  I don't know what you do.  Stand closer to the plate, cut down on your swing?  Good luck finding the solution. 



#1676 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 19 May 2024 - 11:31 AM

I'm not sure how you improve it other than ordering them to take more pitches, especially early in counts.  There's a fine line between being aggressive and just flailing away aimlessly.  I realize hitting the pitchers today is difficult, but you have to do a better job of having plate discipline, being patient, working counts, and when you do swing, hopefully it's something you can handle and drive.  This hacking away at anything within a foot of the plate in any direction is problematic.  I don't know what you do.  Stand closer to the plate, cut down on your swing?  Good luck finding the solution. 

Some other teams score just about as many runs as the O's.

Some other teams hit just about as many HRs as the O's.

But some other teams walk a hell of a lot more than the O's.

 

If they can do it the O's should be able to figure it out!



#1677 Slidemaster

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Posted 19 May 2024 - 09:18 PM

Being overly aggressive and unselective in the playoffs is a great recipe for getting sent home early. Too many good pitchers and too much information on how to get your hitters out. That's what (in part) plagued the Showalter teams.

#1678 Slidemaster

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Posted 19 May 2024 - 09:35 PM

So, this is purely hypothetical, but hear me out.

Gunnar is locked in at SS right now.
Westburg looks like the real thing.
Mayo has improved dramatically at 3B and also may have a future at 1st.
Norby could easily play 2nd and move Westburg to 3rd.

That doesn't even account for Holliday.

Someone has to get moved. I don't think it's anyone on the MLB roster.

I don't want to trade Holliday, but he was scary bad when he came up and would probably fetch a kings ransom if made available. Is there an argument for doing that if you go all in on a World Series this year?

This is purely hypothetical, and I want to be clear that I'm NOT suggesting they do anything specifically, nor am I down on any of those three players' futures. But, numbers are numbers and space is space. They can't all play. Each of them probably fetches you a different amount in return.

#1679 CantonJester

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Posted 19 May 2024 - 09:46 PM

So, this is purely hypothetical, but hear me out.

Gunnar is locked in at SS right now.
Westburg looks like the real thing.
Mayo has improved dramatically at 3B and also may have a future at 1st.
Norby could easily play 2nd and move Westburg to 3rd.

That doesn't even account for Holliday.

Someone has to get moved. I don't think it's anyone on the MLB roster.

I don't want to trade Holliday, but he was scary bad when he came up and would probably fetch a kings ransom if made available. Is there an argument for doing that if you go all in on a World Series this year?

This is purely hypothetical, and I want to be clear that I'm NOT suggesting they do anything specifically, nor am I down on any of those three players' futures. But, numbers are numbers and space is space. They can't all play. Each of them probably fetches you a different amount in return.

 

Can you source the assertion that Mayo has improved dramatically at 3B?

 

Ignoring of course he just suffered a collapsed lung with 41 broken ribs after he selflessly smothered a grenade.. 



#1680 Slidemaster

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Posted 19 May 2024 - 10:18 PM

Can you source the assertion that Mayo has improved dramatically at 3B?

Ignoring of course he just suffered a collapsed lung with 41 broken ribs after he selflessly smothered a grenade..

The rib injury sucks. Hope he's back sooner than later.

I forget where it came from, but it was referenced here recently with some quotes from some of his coaches. I feel like I remember Phelan saying that he had gotten better as well, but he's free to correct me if that's not the case.




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