2551 replies to this topic

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I suspect that if its true that we are in on De Grom and Verlander, the top 2 guys who likely will be signing shorter deals ,that Elias knows he will have to beat other teams offers by a decent amount. It still ultimately comes down to getting them to buy into pitching for the Os even if we were to have the offer.

[mweb08]

So with Verlander for instance, if they have to add an extra few million a year above the next highest offer, so what, what else are they doing with the money? Adding an extra year would be the hold up.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

So with Verlander for instance, if they have to add an extra few million a year above the next highest offer, so what, what else are they doing with the money? Adding an extra year would be the hold up.

Its just hard to say what would be the deciding factor for Verlander at this point in his career. If its 4 or 5mil more a year for 2 years then absolutely go get it done. I hope he seriously considers us and we truly are seriously considering him. If those two things are true then we have a chance

[Slidemaster]

I don't think deGrom or Verlander is coming to the O's aside from the money issue, I think they're not a team that has a guaranteed enough path to the WS for either of them to risk one of their last few years on.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

I don't think deGrom or Verlander is coming to the O's aside from the money issue, I think they're not a team that has a guaranteed enough path to the WS for either of them to risk one of their last few years on.

I tend to agree with that but there is another perspective Verlander could take. He's been to the WS and has the ring. Perhaps you sell him on the idea of taking a young and up coming team over the hump. That would be quite the addition to his legacy!

[BSLMikeLowe]

I tend to agree with that but there is another perspective Verlander could take. He's been to the WS and has the ring. Perhaps you sell him on the idea of taking a young and up coming team over the hump. That would be quite the addition to his legacy!

 

He kinda already did that at Houston, albeit he only joined midseason in 2017. Not much left for him to really accomplish that he hasn't already done at this point

[BSLChrisStoner]

Re: Verlander....  

 

If Houston wants him back.... you have to beat: 

 

1) The familiarity as he's been there since '17 and won a lot individually and as a team.

2) No state tax in Texas. 

 

Presumably you'd have to offer more than just a higher AAV..  imo, you'd have to offer another year or two beyond what Houston offers. 

Given that he's 40 in Feb...  will Houston hold out on not offering him anything beyond 3 years? 
Do you want to offer a 4th year there?

(I see FanGraphs is projecting 2 years $80M.)

 

 

Rodon is about to turn 30 next month. FanGraphs is projecting 5 years $120M. 

 

I think I'd feel better about 5 $150M for Rodon vs. 4 years for Verlander. 

[Slidemaster]

Re: Verlander....

If Houston wants him back.... you have to beat:

1) The familiarity as he's been there since '17 and won a lot individually and as a team.
2) No state tax in Texas.

Presumably you'd have to offer more than just a higher AAV.. imo, you'd have to offer another year or two beyond what Houston offers.

Given that he's 40 in Feb... will Houston hold out on not offering him anything beyond 3 years?
Do you want to offer a 4th year there?

(I see FanGraphs is projecting 2 years $80M.)


Rodon is about to turn 30 next month. FanGraphs is projecting 5 years $120M.

I think I'd feel better about 5 $150M for Rodon vs. 4 years for Verlander.

There's no guarantee he even wants to pitch 4 more years.

[mweb08]

Re: Verlander....

If Houston wants him back.... you have to beat:

1) The familiarity as he's been there since '17 and won a lot individually and as a team.
2) No state tax in Texas.

Presumably you'd have to offer more than just a higher AAV.. imo, you'd have to offer another year or two beyond what Houston offers.

Given that he's 40 in Feb... will Houston hold out on not offering him anything beyond 3 years?
Do you want to offer a 4th year there?

(I see FanGraphs is projecting 2 years $80M.)


Rodon is about to turn 30 next month. FanGraphs is projecting 5 years $120M.

I think I'd feel better about 5 $150M for Rodon vs. 4 years for Verlander.

I've been a huge Verlander proponent precisely because his contract should be short, so no to a 4 year deal for him.

If the Astros are offering the 2/80, I would stick with the 2 years and be willing to substantially raise the salary if need be. 2/100.

Should still be plenty of money leftover too for a couple other players. Maybe even Rodon.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I've been a huge Verlander proponent precisely because his contract should be short, so no to a 4 year deal for him.

If the Astros are offering the 2/80, I would stick with the 2 years and be willing to substantially raise the salary if need be. 2/100.

Should still be plenty of money leftover too for a couple other players. Maybe even Rodon.

If you are jumping that much in AAV, that could possibly be enough to make him leave his comfort zone.   I'd definitely choose that over additional years. 

Obviously it's not apples to apples $10M more annually when you've factored in the tax difference though.

[mweb08]

If you are jumping that much in AAV, that could possibly be enough to make him leave his comfort zone. I'd definitely choose that over additional years.

Obviously it's not apples to apples $10M more annually when you've factored in the tax difference though.

This may not apply to Verlander, but ego is likely a factor with contracts for many, meaning the contract figures are what they brag about regardless of the tax situation. I would also guess that the union discourages players forgoing larger deals due to tax savings because that doesn't help the player market.

[bmore_ken]

I don't think deGrom or Verlander is coming to the O's aside from the money issue, I think they're not a team that has a guaranteed enough path to the WS for either of them to risk one of their last few years on.

If Verlander signs with the O's, I'm buying season tickets the next day. I think my money is safe though.

[Mike B]

If Verlander signs with the O's, I'm buying season tickets the next day. I think my money is safe though.

Yea, I don't think you will need to cut back on your Christmas budget, to buy those season tickets.

[weird-O]

This may not apply to Verlander, but ego is likely a factor with contracts for many, meaning the contract figures are what they brag about regardless of the tax situation. I would also guess that the union discourages players forgoing larger deals due to tax savings because that doesn't help the player market.

I'm not sure how big of a factor taxes are to pro athletes. The taxes in Toronto are astronomical, and It hasn't kept players from signing with them. 

[Mackus]

I'm not sure how big of a factor taxes are to pro athletes. The taxes in Toronto are astronomical, and It hasn't kept players from signing with them. 

 

Its a factor, but its a relatively small one.  Athletes get taxed by-game based on where the game is played.  So comparing Verlander in Texas as opposed to Maryland, half of the games he'd have a 0% state income tax in Texas compared to 5.75% in MD.  The other half of the games (road games) would prorate depending on where they are played.  Houston plays at the Rangers (0%) every year but also plays at the Angels and A's (12.3%).

 

It'd be pretty easy to calculate the state tax implications each year for each team (based on schedule), so I'm sure agents present that to teams in higher-tax states.  For Verlander, it'd cost him an extra $2.5-3M or so a year in taxes if he signs with the O's than if he signed with Houston, depending on the exact salary.  Step up the offer by 3% annually and its about even.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Bellinger a FA. Os should kick the tires here. LH bat. Only 27. Still plays good OF D. Maybe they can work on the swing

[makoman]

Bellinger a FA. Os should kick the tires here. LH bat. Only 27. Still plays good OF D. Maybe they can work on the swing

I'll admit I don't watch the NL very much and completely forgot he was an MVP, 8.6 bWAR player just 3 years ago. I'm fine with kicking the tires but I'd hope the scouts can give some info as to why he might get back there and isn't just the bad hitter he's been for a few years.

[russsnyder]

Bellinger a FA. Os should kick the tires here. LH bat. Only 27. Still plays good OF D. Maybe they can work on the swing

The guy has fallen off a cliff offensively and he made 17 million last year. If I'm the Orioles, I'd have some interest. I have a feeling someone is going to throw some more money at him than the Orioles.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Pretty sure I remember hearing Bellinger reworked his swing after '19 or '20. Have also felt his swing was long and could be exposed. That has certainly been the case of the last few years. Obviously the Dodgers coaches were trying to make him better too but maybe a new voice and approach is what he needs. 

[russsnyder]

Pretty sure I remember hearing Bellinger reworked his swing after '19 or '20. Have also felt his swing was long and could be exposed. That has certainly been the case of the last few years. Obviously the Dodgers coaches were trying to make him better too but maybe a new voice and approach is what he needs.

He's also had some injuries. Mostly leg injuries. This has probably impacted his hitting as well. Sounds like he could benefit from a change of scenery.