614 replies to this topic

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Not sure how the math truly works here but my gut tells me Toronto beating TB is better. We have to beat Toronto h2h no matter what to gain ground on them. And likely have to go 5-1 to have a good shot. Perhaps 4-2. But seems like going 4-2 might give us an ok shot to catch TB moreso than Toronto? Given the tie breakers as of right now we are still 1 game closer to TB than Toronto.

[Mackus]

Not sure how the math truly works here but my gut tells me Toronto beating TB is better. We have to beat Toronto h2h no matter what to gain ground on them. And likely have to go 5-1 to have a good shot. Perhaps 4-2. But seems like going 4-2 might give us an ok shot to catch TB moreso than Toronto? Given the tie breakers as of right now we are still 1 game closer to TB than Toronto.

 

We're gonna need to go 5-1 against Toronto, but TB likely goes better than 1-5 in those equivalent 6 games.  So at that point, we're then closer to Toronto.  Put another way, we can force Toronto to lose.  TB we cannot.  That's the difference and why Toronto remains the target.  I'll root for TB to lose all their games that aren't against Toronto, but we want TB to beat them head-to-head.

 

The tiebreaker situation is big, too.

[85Knight]

Not sure how the math truly works here but my gut tells me Toronto beating TB is better. We have to beat Toronto h2h no matter what to gain ground on them. And likely have to go 5-1 to have a good shot. Perhaps 4-2. But seems like going 4-2 might give us an ok shot to catch TB moreso than Toronto? Given the tie breakers as of right now we are still 1 game closer to TB than Toronto.

It's really a tough call but I'm leaning on pulling for the Rays to win today. Their schedule after this weekend is brutal and we need to keep the Blue Jays in shouting distance so that the head head games matter. I think we pretty much have to go 15-5 the rest of the way and have atleast one of the teams above us play .500 ball at best.

[Mackus]

I think we pretty much have to go 15-5 the rest of the way and have atleast one of the teams above us play .500 ball at best.

 

Yes. That's exactly what needs to happen.

 

O's are 75-67.

 

TB is 79-63.  To earn a spot over the Rays, one combination would be the O's going 15-5 while the Rays go 10-10.

Toronto is 81-62.  To earn a spot over the Jays, one combination would be the O's going 15-5 while the Jays go 9-11.

 

The key is that the Orioles will get to give some of those losses to Toronto, whereas they can't control any of the Rays games.

[85Knight]

Yes. That's exactly what needs to happen.

O's are 75-67.

TB is 79-63. To earn a spot over the Rays, one combination would be the O's going 15-5 while the Rays go 10-10.
Toronto is 81-62. To earn a spot over the Jays, one combination would be the O's going 15-5 while the Jays go 9-11.

The key is that the Orioles will get to give some of those losses to Toronto, whereas they can't control any of the Rays games.

The good news is that we had a stretch like that recently where we won 6 series in a row including wins against the Astros, Guardians and White Sox. It's gonna take a finish like that to pull this off.

Looking at the Rays schedule a 10-10 finish is possible. That's why I wasn't totally against them losing today but the reality is we have to take of our own business to make any of this possible.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

We have to do more than just take care of business. We have to excel.

 

And we still are going to need help. Is what it is. Been a terrific fun season. The fat lady isn't signing but she's got her pitch pipe out.

 

Now its going to be time for the FO to open up the bank account regardless of how we do the rest of the way.

[85Knight]

Let's not forget about the 4 game series between the Blue Jays and Rays next week. That's another 4 losses between 2 teams ahead of us that's baked into the equation too.

[You Play to Win the Game]

Rays leading the Jays 5-0 in the bottom of the 7th.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

TB up 6-0 in the top of the 9th. Even the Rays can't hose this one up.

[Pedro Cerrano]

Gas Can returned.

[85Knight]

Gas Can returned.

Good. I don't like that dude.

[Mike in STL]

In the span that the Jays played 8 games in 8 days and the Orioles played 5 games in 8 days, the O's gained a half game on TOR. 

 

3 weeks to go. 4.5 (5 or 6 in reality) behind Tampa. 5 back of TOR. Tall order. 

[85Knight]

In the span that the Jays played 8 games in 8 days and the Orioles played 5 games in 8 days, the O's gained a half game on TOR.

3 weeks to go. 4.5 (5 or 6 in reality) behind Tampa. 5 back of TOR. Tall order.

In the span of the last 10 games the Blue Jays have gained 2 games on the O's and the Yankees 4 so gains are possible. It just depends on what window you're looking at. We just have to hope that these last 20 games are that window that we gain 4 or 5 games on the teams in front of us.

[Mackus]

In the span that the Jays played 8 games in 8 days and the Orioles played 5 games in 8 days, the O's gained a half game on TOR.

3 weeks to go. 4.5 (5 or 6 in reality) behind Tampa. 5 back of TOR. Tall order.

What do you mean 5 or 6 in reality?

They are 4 back in the loss column. Up 7-6 in season series so any plausible scenario that has them closing that gap also has them winning the tiebreaker.

Win 2-of-3 this weekend and we're in good shape. Would need to close just a half game over the ensuing two weeks to have a hope when the final series begins.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

What do you mean 5 or 6 in reality?

They are 4 back in the loss column. Up 7-6 in season series so any plausible scenario that has them closing that gap also has them winning the tiebreaker.

Win 2-of-3 this weekend and we're in good shape. Would need to close just a half game over the ensuing two weeks to have a hope when the final series begins.

I finally think I understand where we see things differently. Its just a matter of perspective.

 

 I don't think winning 2 out of 3 this weekend, needing to gain just a half game over the final two weeks, to have hope at the final series equates to "good shape."  Just semantics. To me good shape is a position where we don't need to sweep the last series. Damn I hate nights with no game.....lol

[Mackus]

Make up 2 more games over that span and then we just need to win the final series, not sweep it.

2 GB and 3 GB are the same, still need a sweep. But 1 GB when that series starts means that just a win gets us in.

I think sweeping that series with 1/2 game made up in the interim is more likely than closing 2.5 games in those ~2 weeks and then winning the series. But either path works.

Bottom line is win 2-of-3 this weekend and we've got a reasonable shot at staying alive the entire season. If you lose the series, it ain't over but it's getting close, needing to do big work over a short period and then sweep.

[85Knight]

Make up 2 more games over that span and then we just need to win the final series, not sweep it.

2 GB and 3 GB are the same, still need a sweep. But 1 GB when that series starts means that just a win gets us in.

I think sweeping that series with 1/2 game made up in the interim is more likely than closing 2.5 games in those ~2 weeks and then winning the series. But either path works.

Bottom line is win 2-of-3 this weekend and we've got a reasonable shot at staying alive the entire season. If you lose the series, it ain't over but it's getting close, needing to do big work over a short period and then sweep.

I want a sweep this weekend. Hopefully they are reeling after getting stomped today and we're catching them at the right time. We're rested and the offense has been a tad bit better lately. Shock the world and get the sweep this weekend. Boy would that change the rest of the season perceptions.

[You Play to Win the Game]

Friday still unannounced

Saturday Lyles vs. Berrios

Sunday Bradish vs. Manoah

[Mike in STL]

What do you mean 5 or 6 in reality?

They are 4 back in the loss column. Up 7-6 in season series so any plausible scenario that has them closing that gap also has them winning the tiebreaker.

Win 2-of-3 this weekend and we're in good shape. Would need to close just a half game over the ensuing two weeks to have a hope when the final series begins.

Tampa has a tie breaker over us. If that 4.5 turns 4, we’re 5 back, if it turns 5, they’re 6 back.

[Pedro Cerrano]

Anything less than two of three this weekend and we can hang it up