614 replies to this topic

[Mackus]

In the loss column...

 

5 games back of TB but lose the tie-breaker so its effectively 6

5 games back of Toronto and the O's control destiny for the tie-break

4 games back of Seattle but lose the tie-breaker so its effectively 6

 

Is pretty much down to miracle finishes only, but if we can close one game a week then that final series would still be a "sweep-and-you're in" scenario.  Go sweep the Tigers and see if anyone else comes backwards a bit.

[Mackus]

This week:

 

O's 3 v Det, 4 v Hou

 

TB 3 v Hou, 4 v Tor

 

Tor 2 @Phi, 4 @Tor

 

Sea 1 @LAA, 3 @Oak, 3 @KC

 

Just root hard for the home team in every game!

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Houston pretty much has the #1 seed locked up. Maybe they start resting some players or lose a bit of focus? Gotta find a way to go 5-2 this week.

[Mackus]

Houston pretty much has the #1 seed locked up. Maybe they start resting some players or lose a bit of focus? Gotta find a way to go 5-2 this week.

 

Yeah, that's the hope.  They haven't clinched yet, but are 7 up on the Yankees the loss column (plus the tiebreaker) with 17 games left to play.  Magic number for #1 seed is 10.

 

I don't think they'll be resting guys like you would in the final week, but they won't be feeling a ton of urgency.

[Mike in STL]

Also a winning team that seems to have a good clubhouse environment and a much better place to hit so it all evens out.

No, it doesn't even out. All the variables change. 

 

Were the O's not a winning team at the time? Do the O's not have a good clubhouse environment? Sounded like a fun place before they shipped him off for a fixer upper.

 

Career OPS by ballpark

 

@BAL - .828

@BOS - .964

@TOR - .861

@ NYY - .740

@TB - .715

 

@HOU - .723

@SEA - .768

@OAK - .632

@LAA - .587

@TEX - .610 (New stadium, only 19 PAs)

 

Seems to me like he likes hitting in the AL East parks. Seems pretty important to a team competing in the AL East. 

[BobPhelan]

Houston’s short porch in left is the best place he could’ve landed but I’ll let you die on this hill.

[Mackus]

Having not watched him at all, I'd imagine Trey has gotten quite a bit unlucky in Houston that's driving down that AVG.  218 BABIP.

 

His K% did go up quite a bit, so that's a part of the struggles and not a matter of luck.  He's also walked more.  His power has been through the roof, 234 ISO in Houston.

 

Jesus Aguilar has a 464 OPS in 29 PA.  Brett Phillips had a 353 in 17.  That's only a 1/4 of the time that Trey would've been here, but that's pretty damn close to a zero in those opportunities.  Vavra and especially Stowers got a good bit of the time that could've gone to Trey.  698 OPS in 68 PA and 625 OPS in 57 PA for them.  

 

I think it made sense to think that we could more or less replace Mancini in the lineup. I disliked the trade a lot more from a personal standpoint than an on-field one.  But while that was a reasonable assumption, its been decidedly not the case as his obvious replacements have about a 600 OPS in 171 PA.  Trey is at 726 over 141 PA since the trade, and was hitting slightly better here before the deal.

[Mike in STL]

Houston’s short porch in left is the best place he could’ve landed but I’ll let you die on this hill.

He OPSs .240 points less in Houston's shorts porch versus a place with a 37 foot tall wall from left all the way to just about center field. 

 

This season he OPSed .762 at Camden and is OPSing .845 in Houston. Wall obviously a factor. But he batted .289 here and is batting .239 there. Short porch means less OF to cover. Means balls over their heads that aren't homers are outs in HOU, could be doubles in BAL. Short fly balls in HOU are caught, could fall in for singles in BAL. 

 

I don't know what to tell you. If you want to ignore the numbers, that's fine. 

[You Play to Win the Game]

Sweep Detroit like it’s F’ing 2014 is the focus right now. Let’s go!!!

[Mike in STL]

Having not watched him at all, I'd imagine Trey has gotten quite a bit unlucky in Houston that's driving down that AVG.  218 BABIP.

 

His K% did go up quite a bit, so that's a part of the struggles and not a matter of luck.  He's also walked more.  His power has been through the roof, 234 ISO in Houston.

 

Jesus Aguilar has a 464 OPS in 29 PA.  Brett Phillips had a 353 in 17.  That's only a 1/4 of the time that Trey would've been here, but that's pretty damn close to a zero in those opportunities.  Vavra and especially Stowers got a good bit of the time that could've gone to Trey.  698 OPS in 68 PA and 625 OPS in 57 PA for them.  

 

I think it made sense to think that we could more or less replace Mancini in the lineup. I disliked the trade a lot more from a personal standpoint than an on-field one.  But while that was a reasonable assumption, its been decidedly not the case as his obvious replacements have about a 600 OPS in 171 PA.  Trey is at 726 over 141 PA since the trade, and was hitting slightly better here before the deal.

"Easily replaceable" they said.

[makoman]

I don't know what to tell you. If you want to ignore the numbers, that's fine. 

**Proceeds to ignore his actual numbers the past 1.5 months and construct some weird alternative history based on what he did in Fenway in 2019 and Brandon Hyde's clear ability to will his players to hit well**

 

I think baseball players have lots of ups and downs over 162 games. It's silly to ignore a quarter of the season and pretend they just would have been far better because he was hot in May. Especially when that doesn't explain July.

[85Knight]

Sweep Detroit like it’s F’ing 2014 is the focus right now. Let’s go!!!

Honestly I feel like it's over if we don't. Of course we're not gonna be mathematically eliminated but at some point you have to be realistic. They obviously have to play lights out to even come close to catching anyone and they're running out of time to play that kind of ball. I was hoping the lights came on against the Nats but we're back to square one after the Toronto series. Realistically it's not gonna happen if they can't switch to another gear at home against one of the worst teams in the league.

[85Knight]

In the loss column...

4 games back of TB but lose the tie-breaker so its effectively 5
5 games back of Toronto and the O's control destiny for the tie-break
5 games back of Seattle but lose the tie-breaker so its effectively 6

Is pretty much down to miracle finishes only, but if we can close one game a week then that final series would still be a "sweep-and-you're in" scenario. Go sweep the Tigers and see if anyone else comes backwards a bit.

We are 4 back of Seattle and 5 back of Toronto and Tampa Bay in the loss column. Hopefully the Mariners slide on their 10 game road trip continues. Maybe they're getting a little tight under the collar.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Be within 3 of Toronto the last series. 

[Mackus]

We are 4 back of Seattle and 5 back of Toronto and Tampa Bay in the loss column. Hopefully the Mariner's slide on their 10 game road trip continues. Maybe they're getting a little tight under the collar.

 

Crap, somehow my standings page was displaying the race from Sept 16 and I didn't notice.  Thanks.

[Mike in STL]

**Proceeds to ignore his actual numbers the past 1.5 months and construct some weird alternative history based on what he did in Fenway in 2019 and Brandon Hyde's clear ability to will his players to hit well**

 

I think baseball players have lots of ups and downs over 162 games. It's silly to ignore a quarter of the season and pretend they just would have been far better because he was hot in May. Especially when that doesn't explain July.

No, I think because he's batting .202 since the trade, that doesn't mean he'd be batting .202 the last 7 weeks if he was still here. That's what the simpleton Elias apologists think. 

 

If he was playing left field in Houston (Which he does sometimes, for those of you that think he's a worse, easily replaceable David Ortiz) and crashed into the wall and broke his wrist, it doesn't mean he would have suffered a broken wrist here. Why? He is playing under a completely different set of circumstances now than he was. The circumstances from a hitting standpoint, IMO, are more likely to lead to his decreased offensive output in all categories except HRs, which are up.

 

Notice how I'm not arguing that he'd have hit 8 home runs since the trade if he'd still been here? Like a simpleton Elias apologist would have to with their logic that what he's doing there equals what he'd have done here. 

 

Variables people! This nonsense started the first day he was gone. He hit a homer and everyone said "would have been a fly out at Camden Yards." Well, the O's were playing in Texas that day, so that's a dumb statement to make, ignoring all other variables.

[Mike in STL]

Can close this thread for good now.

[Pedro Cerrano]

I vote to keep it open. We have watched a lot of crappy baseball recently. We are finally good again so let’s ride it out.

Worst that can happen is we miss the playoffs (likely) and still enjoy the fact we watched meaningful baseball in September.

[Pedro Cerrano]

Houston is trying to help us. Up early on Tampa. Beat them yesterday.

[JStruds]

I vote to keep it open. We have watched a lot of crappy baseball recently. We are finally good again so let’s ride it out.

Worst that can happen is we miss the playoffs (likely) and still enjoy the fact we watched meaningful baseball in September.

Exactly. Sitting in the stands last night was not much fun. The excitement level felt low from the start like everyone knows this hitting slump has doomed the team. However, we discussed among ourselves that it's still been a good season if for no other reason than it's September 20th and the team is not eliminated from a playoff spot.

Just win 6 more and go into the off season optimistic for 2023.