429 replies to this topic

[dude]

Don't be mad at me, the only thing that matters is public information.

[Slidemaster]

Don't be mad at me, the only thing that matters is public information.

I'm not mad at you, but you can be frustrating to discuss things with because you speak as though you just know more than everyone else, and anyone with a contrary viewpoint is either uninformed, or suffering from deeply flawed logic.

[hallas]

Don't be mad at me, the only thing that matters is public information.

There's a lot of extrapolating here and the fact that the O's had cheapskate John running the show until recently gives me at least some hope that maybe the new group will approve a long term deal if they're approached. I certainly don't think the venn diagrams are definitively separate circles at this stage.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Holliday with a not so good night.

 

2 for 4 with a double and no RBIs. No Ks. One BB. 4 runs scored. Made an error. 

 

Send him down to AA.

[dude]

There's a lot of extrapolating here and the fact that the O's had cheapskate John running the show until recently gives me at least some hope that maybe the new group will approve a long term deal if they're approached. I certainly don't think the venn diagrams are definitively separate circles at this stage.

 

If you guys want to pretend that previous Orioles ownership is the reason Boras tactics are Boras tactics, I'd suggest you need to pay attention to the other 29 teams in Baseball also.  Our ownership group doesn't have some unique thing with Boras.  I'm hyper-excited about the new ownership group.  Angelos family has been such a stain on this franchise for a long, long time, it's just nice to have a breathe of fresh air....

 

...but Boras didn't change just because the Ownership changes.

 

There's an approach for clients at every stage (nobody want to hear this about Holliday, but...) so when Harper signed his contract it's about setting the new bar.  When Cole signed his contract, it was about setting the new bar.  When Ohtani and Yamamoto (not Boras clients) signed their deals, they are specifically structured for marketing and "new bar".  After the Orioles WS Championship this year, Boras is going to try and set new bars for pitchers with Burnes (over 325M) and hitters with Soto (over ~460M).

 

We'll see how the market reacts next offseason.  A couple days ago, Boras went on his brief explanation tour about why he utterly failed this offseason with his top 4-6 clients.  Do you really think he's learned anything or he's just looking at his next client that can re-establish some of the myth about his relevance?

 

GRod, Gunnar and Holliday may be his 3 best clients to sell something irrational.  He's not going to give you a number to sign, he wants you to start a negotiation that he can then push through Heyman to begin to ramp up the rhetoric for their future FA seasons. Remember Harper and 400M..."don't sell me short".

 

Not every client sets records, but you track the ones that can.  You explode the hype.  The advantage all of these guys have is you can sell future because they haven't really failed yet.

 

Personally, I'd love to see any (all) of them sign.....but if takes ridiculous things (and it does) then I'm ok just using them while they're here.  Sign the guys that want to sign.  Build the Team that wants to win Championships in Baltimore.  Don't chase the guys that have a different top priority.

 

I'm not invested in in any direction.  You guys seems to be.  I'll never blame ownership in these cases (even if ownership didn't change).

[Pedro Cerrano]

It’s abundantly clear to me that previous ownership was a massive reason why we rarely got into bed with Boras

If the new owner does or not will remain to be seen but it can’t get any worse

And FWIW I think Boras will bounce back just fine. He didn’t have the best crop of FA this go around. That changes in 7 months.

[dude]

It’s abundantly clear to me that previous ownership was a massive reason why we rarely got into bed with Boras.

 

Sort of?  The previous Orioles ownership wasn't interested in Boras negotiating tactics that causes them to overpay for FAs.  Avoiding the  high dollar Boras clients would mostly turn out to be a good thing.  The track record has been a little better lately, but still terrible.

 

I was hopeful Chris Davis would break the cycle of Boras disaster contracts and it turned out horrible.

 

Hypothetically...how would you feel about the Boras-Angelos relationship if you found out that Boras sold JA on taking Holliday 1-1? 

[dude]

If the new owner does or not will remain to be seen but it can’t get any worse

 

...but again, Boras hasn't changed.

 

Every phase of a Players career has a different approach.  There can be some variance in how you operate, but the approach  is generally the same.  

 

Boras runs a fairly predictable line across the different Phases (draft, pre-0, 1-3 TC, 4-6 ARB, FA).  Lines you should be comfortable betting the house on.

 

If you want to suggest that the approach may be different with any of these guys as FAs...ok, we'll see....but that's not the discussion here....the discussion is are the Orioles going to be aggressive and sign these top young guys to reasonable extensions early.  That hasn't been a thing for any team with Boras clients.

 

The Nationals have been a very Boras-friendly outlet for FA contracts....how has that worked out for them.  They tried to lock up Soto (reportedly) and how was that received?

[Slidemaster]

Why do the contracts from some stars matter or carry relevance as they pertain to the Orioles youngsters, but not guys like Bobby Witt Jr? To me, Bobby Witt Jr is the closest comp to anybody the Orioles and the fans hope to resign, and it was done by the Royals of all teams.

Holliday in particular is a close comparison, because he's the son of a former player who already has plenty of money. It's not like they *need* to earn long-term generational wealth (though they will anyway, of course). If they can provide him an awesome environment to play in, help him reach stardom, and he has a chance to win a championship or two here, why wouldn't he want to stay if their offer is competitive?

Granted, he may just not like the idea of playing in Baltimore long-term, but you cant control that. However, even if the goal is to earn every dollar possible, wouldn't it be much more lucrative to take 28 million or so per year over 8 to 10 years to start your career, and then get yet another contract, potentially for even more, before you even turn 31? That certainly has to be more money than taking rookie salary, then arbitration before hitting FA.

[dude]

Why do the contracts from some stars matter or carry relevance as they pertain to the Orioles youngsters, but not guys like Bobby Witt Jr? 

 

You seem to not want to accept the likely outcomes of selecting Boras as your agent.  His dad Matt was a Boras guy and Matt is one of the guys that Boras sends out there to carry the Boras position/flag.  Bet all of your money that Jackson follows the approach Boras dictates.  Jackson isn't looking for security.  He's grown up in Baseball and his family is a 100Millionaire.

 

If you don't want that to be true....OK.

 

However, even if the goal is to earn every dollar possible, wouldn't it be much more lucrative to take 28 million or so per year over 8 to 10 years to start your career, and then get yet another contract, potentially for even more, before you even turn 31? That certainly has to be more money than taking rookie salary, then arbitration before hitting FA.

 

No.  There are good reasons to do what you're suggesting, but that's not the model that Boras runs.  The goal is to be a FA as early as possible and tie the most money across the most year. 

 

We're about to see with with Soto.  Nationals treated him incredibly well and he gave them nothing back.  Whatever you give a Boras client, they'll leverage it for their own purposes.

 

Hey, they're welcome to prove me wrong.  I'm ok with that.

[Pedro Cerrano]

Called up. Before this weekend? Huh?

[Mackus]

Well I'm shocked. They must've changed their handicapping of his top-2 odds after the first ten days. That's the only reason for a different decision on Opening Day instead of waiting three days from now. This timing means he'll earn a full year of service and be eligible for player promotion compensation.

If he's only ok they could still find a three week period to option him later in the year and "earn back" the year before of service. If he's downright bad that seems plausible but can't see it happening if he's kinda ok.

Hope he kicks ass. This'll be very exciting.

[mweb08]

Well I'm shocked. They must've changed their handicapping of his top-2 odds after the first ten days. That's the only reason for a different decision on Opening Day instead of waiting three days from now. This timing means he'll earn a full year of service and be eligible for player promotion compensation.

I have the same thoughts with a sliver of long term contract optimism in addition.

[Slidemaster]

It's probably idiotic as hell to hope against hope that this might mean a contract announcement might follow, but whatever, I'm already drunk on this news.

[BaltBird 24]

Let him debut at home.

[Mackus]

Let him debut at home.

If they waited til Friday to call him up that's the first day he no longer gets the full year and is PPI eligible. That's gotta be the reason to do it now rather than Friday, they've changed their calculus and now think he's likely enough to finish top-2 that they'll burn the year and try to get the pick.

I'd wait til Friday, personally.

[Slidemaster]

If they waited til Friday to call him up that's the first day he no longer gets the full year and is PPI eligible. That's gotta be the reason to do it now rather than Friday, they've changed their calculus and now think he's likely enough to finish top-2 that they'll burn the year and try to get the pick.

I'd wait til Friday, personally.

Or they have a 10 year 300 million dollar deal on the table he accepted.

Right?

Come on. Humor me.

[BSLChrisStoner]

ROY.

[Pedro Cerrano]

I just don’t get this. Why not wait three more days

[BSLMikeLowe]

I just don’t get this. Why not wait three more days

 

I think the bigger question is why he was at Norfolk at all? What did he learn in those 10 games down there that he didn't show in ST?

 

Or was this a case of Elias buying himself an extra 1.5 weeks to decide whether to go for the extra year of service time or have a shot at the draft pick, and the struggles of the ML team at the plate made that decision for him? (I don't think that's it, but I can't think of any other reason they played it this way)