425 replies to this topic

[hallas]

What are the odds that he goes down for 10 days, OPSes 1.4 and comes up before the 15 day window to call him up in order to be eligible for PPI?

 

Secondly, would the above odds change if he gives us a 7th year in an early extension before getting called up?

[Mackus]

What are the odds that he goes down for 10 days, OPSes 1.4 and comes up before the 15 day window to call him up in order to be eligible for PPI?

 

Secondly, would the above odds change if he gives us a 7th year in an early extension before getting called up?

 

Low, but I think the odds of a Urias, Henderson, or Westburg injury are non-trivial and that would have the same end result.  Exactly what happened with Rodriguez last season (made moot by Rodriguez' early struggles and eventual demotion).

 

Odds move to 100% in the case of an extension.  He's up the next day.

[dude]

I don't think I've seen anyone here use this to justify the decision but I've seen a bunch of "he needs more reps at 2B" which is a particularly frustrating talking point because they barely played him at 2B last even if they knew that'd be his most likely spot to get MLB playing time. From the start of August, when it seemed pretty likely Westburg would lock down a spot in the infield going forward, Holliday appeared in 47 games and just 12.8 percent of them were at 2B.

 

I actually want him to play SS. 

I like Henderson at SS, but I like him better at 3B. 

I like Westburg at 3B, but I like him a lot better at 2B. 

fwiw, I like Mayo at 3B, but I'd love him at 1B.

 

Outside of the other things I've shared, I want him playing SS at Norfolk until they decide he's not an above average SS.  2B now was an argument for him not being ready at SS....I want him to get ready to play SS.

 

I understand Hyde said Gunnar is the predominant SS, but as you suggested in another article, Urias/Mateo could be the Platoon with GH moving back and forth.

 

Decide at AAA where you think Holliday winds up and keep options open.  Typically I don't advocate for this, but I think this specific situation sort of calls for it.

[weird-O]

Daddy Matt seemed to be complaining on some talk radio show, about Jackson being sent down. I only read transcripts/quotes, so it could be that I'm misinterpreting his comments.  

[hallas]

Low, but I think the odds of a Urias, Henderson, or Westburg injury are non-trivial and that would have the same end result. Exactly what happened with Rodriguez last season (made moot by Rodriguez' early struggles and eventual demotion).

Odds move to 100% in the case of an extension. He's up the next day.

I think if he absolutely smokes the ball for 2 weeks in AAA that would change the calculus of the extra year, since if he gets top-2 in ROY voting we lose the extra year anyway, so it might be worth calling him up so he's eligible for the PPI. If he gets hurt we could always option him upon return.

[CantonJester]

Daddy Matt seemed to be complaining on some talk radio show, about Jackson being sent down. I only read transcripts/quotes, so it could be that I'm misinterpreting his comments.  

 

I mentioned in another thread that this could be both helicopter parent and MLBPA advocate. 

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Well clearly he's just not ready. In the Tides opener he went a poor 3 for 5 with a double and a home run and only 4 RBIs. Sure its only one game but he has to do better.

[SonicAttack]

Urias and Mateo and obviously much more advanced and better in all aspects of the game.  

[Mackus]

He's definitely good enough to make it worth trying to have him around when he's 26 rather than gone to the Yankees via free agency...

[BSLSteveBirrer]

He's definitely good enough to make it worth trying to have him around when he's 26 rather than gone to the Yankees via free agency...

Like I have said all along. Totally agree with this as long as they have him up the next freaking day after they gain that 2030 season. Not a day later.

[Slidemaster]

Like I have said all along. Totally agree with this as long as they have him up the next freaking day after they gain that 2030 season. Not a day later.

Or they could just nut up and give him a 14-year 330-360 million dollar deal with an opt out after year 10 and call it a decade.

[dude]

Or they could just nut up and give him a 14-year 330-360 million dollar deal with an opt out after year 10 and call it a decade.

 

I mean, this is kind of important.  Do you think that's even close?

[Slidemaster]

I mean, this is kind of important. Do you think that's even close?

It's in the realm of the Witt contract in AAV, and he has 2 years of Major League experience proving he's a stud.

Truthfully, it's not my job to know what is close or not. The point is that they should stop messing around with this kid, put an offer he can't turn down on the table for him, and make him an Oriole for at least the first half of his career. If you want to play games about what that contract looks like, go nuts. I'm more interested in the final result

[dude]

It's in the realm of the Witt contract in AAV, and he has 2 years of Major League experience proving he's a stud.

Truthfully, it's not my job to know what is close or not. The point is that they should stop messing around with this kid, put an offer he can't turn down on the table for him, and make him an Oriole for at least the first half of his career. If you want to play games about what that contract looks like, go nuts. I'm more interested in the final result

 

You think think there's a result that makes him an Orioles for the "first half of his career"....there isn't.

 

Don't get me wrong, maybe there's something he'd sign, but it'd be so ridiculous it's not worth discussing.

 

The circles of "what the Orioles could/should offer" and "a contract he'd sign" don't overlap.

 

It has nothing to do with the Orioles willingness or Ownership.  It's only what Holliday wants and he's already told you.

[Slidemaster]

You think think there's a result that makes him an Orioles for the "first half of his career"....there isn't.

Don't get me wrong, maybe there's something he'd sign, but it'd be so ridiculous it's not worth discussing.

The circles of "what the Orioles could/should offer" and "a contract he'd sign" don't overlap.

It has nothing to do with the Orioles willingness or Ownership. It's only what Holliday wants and he's already told you.

I just don't see how you could possibly know that. Maybe you're right, and he is so dead set on not extending that we might as well start counting down the days until he's a Yankee or a Dodger, but I feel like a contract between $300 and 400 million over 10 to 12 years, that gives him the chance to opt out before his 31st birthday and score another contract of the same size or larger is a reasonable proposition. He would make far more money over the first six years of his career than he would lose trying to maximize the second six, and he would have the chance to opt out and do it all over again if he wants.

Maybe some of those numbers or years need tweaking, but I refuse to believe there's a scenario where there's just no chance the Orioles could extend him in a reasonable manner. Same goes for Gunnar. Same goes for Grayson and Rutschman. And, to go one step further, I would rather they just extend those guys for their prime years then go trying to be big players in free agency. It's very unlikely they could get all of them, but I do believe they could get at least two.

[DuffMan]

FWIW, he did have an error on a throw last night. (Wasn't the only O's prospect with a defensive miscue)

[dude]

Maybe some of those numbers or years need tweaking, but I refuse to believe there's a scenario where there's just no chance the Orioles could extend him in a reasonable manner. Same goes for Gunnar. Same goes for Grayson and Rutschman. And, to go one step further, I would rather they just extend those guys for their prime years then go trying to be big players in free agency. It's very unlikely they could get all of them, but I do believe they could get at least two.

 

You have a better chance of the lottery than "reasonable" with the first 3.  

 

Not sure why you're lumping Holliday, Henderson and GRod with the Rutschman.  I think you can extend Adley.  I've suggested a contract and if they offered to him, I'd surmise he'd sign it.

 

You want contracts for the other 3?

GRod 12/330M

Gunnar 15/500M

Holliday 20/705M (and you get to defer 300M)

 

Bottom line is use them while they're here.  Build the next layers.  Have a plan.  Success isn't tied to any of them. If they're part of it, great.  If they want to be part of it longer term (beyond club control), great.  If they want to pursue other goals, whatever, win without them.

[Slidemaster]

You have a better chance of the lottery than "reasonable" with the first 3.

Not sure why you're lumping Holliday, Henderson and GRod with the Rutschman. I think you can extend Adley. I've suggested a contract and if they offered to him, I'd surmise he'd sign it.

You want contracts for the other 3?
GRod 12/330M
Gunnar 15/500M
Holliday 20/705M (and you get to defer 300M)

Bottom line is use them while they're here. Build the next layers. Have a plan. Success isn't tied to any of them. If they're part of it, great. If they want to be part of it longer term (beyond club control), great. If they want to pursue other goals, whatever, win without them.

I'd sign G-Rod to that deal.

I wouldn't sign Gunnar to that many years, but I'd give him that AAV over 10.

I have no idea why you think they'd have to give Holliday 20 years to stay here, but whatever. If his goal is to maximize his career earnings, he's much better off taking 350 million or so over the first 10 years of his career, and going for another 300 or so in the back half.

Regardless though, I feel like talking about contracts with you is an exercise in futility, because you're convinced that you know more than anyone else what it might take. I don't mean this disrespectfully, but I don't think you're any more accurate in predicting what it takes to acquire players, or what it takes to sign them, than anyone else who spitballs those numbers around here. I don't believe the Orioles would have to offer something that insane to get an extension out of any of those players, but it's not my job to know.

Bobby Witt Jr set the market for what it takes to extend a young star infielder. What he got isn't even in the realm of what you're suggesting for either Henderson or Holliday, and he has as good or better a resume as either of them.

[dude]

You seem to want to apply the context you like to the situation. 

 

Your context isn't the context you should be applying.

[Slidemaster]

You seem to want to apply the context you like to the situation.

Your context isn't the context you should be applying.

Pot meet kettle.

You speak with the certainty of someone who literally knows these kids, their agents, their families, and the FO. You don't.