303 replies to this topic

[mweb08]

From a CNN update on the defense of Kyiv: 

The country’s President Volodymyr Zelensky remained defiant. Despite being a prime target in the invasion, he turned down a US offer of evacuation, the Ukraine embassy in Britain said Saturday on Twitter.

 

“The fight is here; I need ammunition, not a ride,” Zelensky told the US, according to the embassy.

 

 

And weapons and equipment are being sent.

 

This has been a very bad start for the Russian invasion, which is emboldening allies of Ukraine / enemies of Russia. 

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Apparently Russia has screwed up a lot of the logistics. 

[TwentyThirtyFive]

A bit nervous about what happens if Russia doesn't turn the tide quickly. Putin has pushed all his chips into the middle. Not sure he has an off ramp

[BSLChrisStoner]

Apparently Russia has screwed up a lot of the logistics. 

I've seen a lot of military types say Russian forces are not built for precision. They attempt to quickly overwhelm.  They faced more resistance than expected, and now their supply lines are vulnerable. 

Still, they are closing on Kyiv from multiple directions.   Hopefully the Ukrainians can continue to make Russia pay, and pay long enough that Russia reconsiders. 

The other thing the military types have said, is that 'typically' if Russia's initial efforts are thwarted they go to more extreme measures of carpet bombing. 

 

 

NATO's response force being activated for the first time is interesting.  You obviously really want to avoid having US troops directly firing on Russian troops.  But you've got to protect your NATO allies no matter what and make sure Putin doesn't think about expanding this into the Warsaw Pact countries who have joined NATO.  Should be noted that a Cyber Security breech could trigger Article 5.  (So a cyber attack on Poland... ?)

Putin has backed himself into a corner, and his comments on Finland and Sweden are so alarming. Agree with TwentyThirtyFive about wondering about his off ramp.  

It's also alarming that Putin has apparently detached himself from his advisors, and is operating in basic isolation. 

 

The protests we saw in Russia were encouraging. 

 

If Russia is removed from SWIFT - and that's getting closer - maybe that scares the oligarch's enough to push him a bit?

 

The Russian billionaires lost $39B in the 1st day of events... 

https://www.bloomber...-ukraine-attack

[You Play to Win the Game]

Yeah in isolation, probably in a secure bunker somewhere like the feckless coward thug that he is.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Just a terrific job by intellegence to get out in front of Putin's plans. Weve told the world for weeks this was happening. Also refreshing to see the world rally around Ukraine. This is as black and white as it gets.

[You Play to Win the Game]

Just a terrific job by intellegence to get out in front of Putin's plans. Weve told the world for weeks this was happening. Also refreshing to see the world rally around Ukraine. This is as black and white as it gets.

And yet inside Russia, despite the 2,700 arrests of protestors, most support the war according to the numbers.

Something has to be done about misinformation. It’s just incredible to me in the age of the internet, this type of misinformation campaign can still happen, and not only can, but is easier.

Facebook announced last night they are no longer allowing Russian state sponsored ads. Little late for that, isn’t it? They are basically like the oil companies who fueled the Nazi army IMO. And no one is talking about it in any meaningful way. And that’s probably because both political parties in America don’t want to lose that “weapon” either.

[Old Man]

You think Russian outlets are showing their aircraft bombing civilian homes?

 

Russia is a lot like China, with an iron grip on media and social media content.

 

Russia has something in the neighborhood of 145 Million population, so while 2,700 sounds like a lot. Its barely a blip on the radar scope.

[CantonJester]

Just a terrific job by intellegence to get out in front of Putin's plans. Weve told the world for weeks this was happening. Also refreshing to see the world rally around Ukraine. This is as black and white as it gets.

 

I was talking to a friend about this fact last night. We arrived at the conclusion that the backchannels that Trump created to Moscow for his own subversive ends were left open, and the intel coming back was from some very concerned Russian advisors close to Putin. 

[mweb08]

https://twitter.com/...-TyweDIxOA&s=19

What I can say is that 🇺🇦Ukraine’s military have been demonstrating outstanding anti-tank effectiveness. I’m just losing count of Russian armor convoys slaughtered every several hours across the country. https://t.co/EzY07SyTnx

Also, this reporter is a good follow to keep up on what's going on.

[You Play to Win the Game]

The US has always had exceptional intelligence when it comes to Russia. That’s a real reach.

Any concerned Putin advisors could contact us when needed. That’s a real stretch to give Trump any kind of credit. He did so much harm to the intelligence community.

[russsnyder]

A bit nervous about what happens if Russia doesn't turn the tide quickly. Putin has pushed all his chips into the middle. Not sure he has an off ramp

Yeah, no real save face here.

It looks like an occupying force will have their hands full even if the present Ukranian government is ousted.

[russsnyder]

I've seen a lot of military types say Russian forces are not built for precision. They attempt to quickly overwhelm. They faced more resistance than expected, and now their supply lines are vulnerable.

Still, they are closing on Kyiv from multiple directions. Hopefully the Ukrainians can continue to make Russia pay, and pay long enough that Russia reconsiders.

The other thing the military types have said, is that 'typically' if Russia's initial efforts are thwarted they go to more extreme measures of carpet bombing.


NATO's response force being activated for the first time is interesting. You obviously really want to avoid having US troops directly firing on Russian troops. But you've got to protect your NATO allies no matter what and make sure Putin doesn't think about expanding this into the Warsaw Pact countries who have joined NATO. Should be noted that a Cyber Security breech could trigger Article 5. (So a cyber attack on Poland... ?)

Putin has backed himself into a corner, and his comments on Finland and Sweden are so alarming. Agree with TwentyThirtyFive about wondering about his off ramp.

It's also alarming that Putin has apparently detached himself from his advisors, and is operating in basic isolation.

The protests we saw in Russia were encouraging.

If Russia is removed from SWIFT - and that's getting closer - maybe that scares the oligarch's enough to push him a bit?

The Russian billionaires lost $39B in the 1st day of events...
https://www.bloomber...-ukraine-attack

IIRC, Russian military forces struggled a good bit when they invaded Georgia years ago. That performance caused them to shift from an army of " conscripts" to more professional military force. It looks like the pros have their hands full right now.

[mweb08]

A good indication of how the invasion is going:

https://twitter.com/...Ya2Sy3hnFQ&s=19

And he was right, that is happening.

[CantonJester]

The US has always had exceptional intelligence when it comes to Russia. That’s a real reach.

Any concerned Putin advisors could contact us when needed. That’s a real stretch to give Trump any kind of credit. He did so much harm to the intelligence community.

 

Good grief. I didn't suggest to give any credit to Trump. Did you even read what I wrote?

[You Play to Win the Game]

Good grief. I didn't suggest to give any credit to Trump. Did you even read what I wrote?

Yes, and it’s a pretty big reach.

I guess you could say, I’m not over it yet. Sorry.

[CantonJester]

Yes, and it’s a pretty big reach.

I guess you could say, I’m not over it yet. Sorry.

 
 
Eh. Not really that much of a reach. I mean, all I am saying is that there's a likelihood one of Putin's advisers tipped off the White House. Or someone in the Intelligence Community, because Biden's been 100% accurate about everything that would happen. 
 
https://twitter.com/...Ezp7Dqn3fWVCH-A

 

^ That's a good tweet thread by Riho Terras. 

 

THREAD 1/7 Intel from a Ukrainian officer about a meeting in Putin’s lair in Urals. Oligarchs convened there so no one would flee. Putin is furious, he thought that the whole war would be easy and everything would be done in 1-4 days. @EPPGroup @general_ben @edwardlucas @politico

 

2/7 Russians didn’t have a tactical plan. The war costs about $20 bln/day. There are rockets for 3-4 days at most, they use them sparingly. They lack weapons, the Tula and 2 Rotenberg plants can’t physically fulfil the orders for weapons. Rifles and ammo are the most they can do. 

 

 

3/7 The next Russian weapons can be produced in 3-4 months – if even that. They have no raw materials. What was previously supplied mainly from Slovenia, Finland and Germany is now cut off. 

 

4/7 If Ukraine manages to hold the Russians off for 10 days, then the Russians will have to enter negotiations. Because they have no money, weapons, or resources. Nevertheless, they are indifferent about the sanctions. 

 

5/7 Alpha Spec Ops have been near Kyiv since the 18th February. The goal was to take Kyiv and instal a puppet regime. They are preparing provocations against innocent civilians – women and children – to sow panic. This is their trump card. 

 

6/7 Russia’s whole plan relies on panic – that the civilians and armed forces surrender and Zelensky flees. They expect Kharkiv to surrender first so the other cities would follow suit to avoid bloodshed. The Russians are in shock of the fierce resistance they have encountered. 

 

7/7 The Ukrainians must avoid panic! The missile strikes are for intimidation, the Russians fire them at random to “accidentally” hit residential buildings to make the attack look larger than it really is. Ukraine must stay strong and we must provide assistance! #StandWithUkraine 

 

8/7 Spread this information so the world would realise how important it is to assist Ukraine right now and without hesitation! It is difficult for Russia, but it is difficult for Ukraine as well if the West does not provide meaningul support! @EPPGroup @MFAestonia @MoD_Estonia 

[You Play to Win the Game]

https://amp.miamiher...e258820668.html

[NewMarketSean]

UK press saying Russia has 4,300 casualties, 150 tanks lost.

 

Ukraine-Russia LIVE: Putin’s humiliating losses exposed - 4,300 dead and 146 tanks smashed | World | News | Express.co.uk

[Mark Carver]

Ukrainian man offers to tow enemy tank back to Russia after it runs out of fuel  - UK intelligence suggests invading Russian forces may be suffering ‘acute logistical difficulties’

 

https://www.independ...v-b2024003.html