So I think I found a number I'd be comfortable with.
TL:DR - He won't take it. But it's what I'd be comfortable with.
Options:
Transition tag - zero chance.
Exclusive franchise tag - Average of the top 5 QB salaries which for this year would be $47.3M. This number is fluid and based on where they are in April of 23'. Lamar cannot negotiate with other teams. On an estimated $220M salary cap next year, this would be about 21.5% of the cap.
Non-Exclusive franchise tag - Sum of the last five QB franchise tags / sum of the last 5 salary caps = % of the cap this franchise tag would cost. I got 13.6% which on a $220M salary cap = $29.92M. Lamar can negotiate with other teams. If a team makes an offer, the Ravens have five days to match the offer or Lamar goes to that team for two first round picks.
Final option: Extension
I've said many times that teams need to break the trend of paying their QB the next highest amount of money, even when they aren't elite talents. The Watson deal is an anomaly. I would treat Murray's as one too. I would not compare to Russ, or Rodgers, or other vets well past their second contracts as they have accomplished more and are not your peers in these discussions.
Further, In the last two seasons, four QBs have finished with a higher QBR in both seasons, and (I hate that I'm saying this but I wanted another marker) a higher PFF grade in both seasons than Lamar. Those guys are Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Dak Prescott, and Joe Burrow. I wanted to look at their contract benchmarks. Burrow obviously not counting. But this was also hard given the uniqueness of the Mahomes deal.
The following doesn't include incentives
Mahomes: 10/$450M. AAV: $45M. Signing bonus: $10M. Guaranteed at signing: $63M. Guaranteed for injury: $141M. Take home cash in first two years: $11.8M (eeek).
Allen: 6/$258M. AAV: $43M. Signing bonus: $16.5M. Guaranteed at signing: $100M. Guaranteed for injury: $150M. Take home cash in first two years: $67M.
Prescott: 4/$160M. AAV: $40M. Signing bonus: $66M. Guaranteed at signing: $95M. Guaranteed for injury: $126M. Take home cash in first two years: $70.35M.
I've said I would offer Lamar fair market value, plus some extra. I'm not going to let the Watson's/Murray's drive the market. But rather pay attention to those Lamar is a step behind performance wise. Be in their ballpark.
The number I came up with is:
5/$210M. Similar to Prescott, coming off injury, in LJs case, two seasons in a row instead of one major one. Not more total years or money than Allen or Mahomes.
AAV: $42M. Larger than Prescott. Not larger than Allen, Mahomes.
Signing bonus: $70M. Quick and dirty. I didn't get fancy with all kinds of stuff. Prorated out comes to $14M/year on the books.
Guaranteed at signing: $110M. More than all these guys, which is fair.
Guaranteed for injury: $130M. Just a tick above Prescott.
Take home cash in the first two years: $75M. More than all these guys as well, which is fair.
Structured it with small base salaries to have $16M, and $17M cap hits in 23' and 24'. That's a window to put a great team around him and see what he can do.
Cap number becomes $54M in 25', 26', and 27'. These guys have low $50M's cap numbers in 2025. The cap might make it manageable by then. Also, if Lamar has an elite 23'-24', restructure and extend to lower the $54M cap hit. If he doesn't, play out 25' and cut him with $38M dead money for 26'. Spread over two years, under those cap numbers, more than reasonable.