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Lamar - Extension?


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#1221 hallas

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Posted 05 January 2023 - 01:37 AM

I literally said the exact same thing in this thread months ago. I mean Kyler Murray got $189M in guaranteed money. You can say that's not $230, but how much of a real difference does that make in the grand scheme of things?


Murray only has 103 fully guaranteed. He has 189 guaranteed for injury only. The injury guarantees convert to full guarantees on a schedule over the next couple years.

#1222 Mike in STL

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Posted 05 January 2023 - 05:45 AM

Right, and there are barely any outs on the other big deals.

Typically all the money that isn't guaranteed at signing eventually becomes guaranteed a year and a half prior to the year it's to be paid (so March of '23 the 2024 salary becomes guaranteed). So to cut a guy, you eat a full years of guaranteed money that was locked in the previous year. In a fully guaranteed case, it'd be two years (assuming we're talking the last two).

That's not a trivial difference, but it's not a major one either.


It’s all about the structure. Like mdrunning said, you want to try to have escape hatches built in. Mahomes’ I believe is after 2026. Nothing is guaranteed to him in 2027 and beyond until like the 3rd or 5th day of the 2027 league year. So KC could get out and Mahomes would be leaving about $232M on the table. Not counting incentives.

In Lamar’s case, it would help if we knew the ask. Is he asking for 6/$250M guaranteed in full? That’s $41.6M per which is less than Mahomes’ cap hit the next four seasons before they could cut him. But that’s still two more seasons you would be on the hook for LJ. If the ask is $50M per, 5/$250M, those cap hits are too high.

Anything short of returning for the playoffs and running the gauntlet of Cincy, Buffalo, and KC on the road and balling out in those games, even if the defense comes up short in the end, I’m pretty much out on LJ’s demands. Fully guaranteed, I’d do 4/$160M. He won’t take that.
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#1223 PrimeTime

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Posted 05 January 2023 - 08:44 AM

Agreed. But I think the draft has been pretty balanced when you look at picks in the top 3 rounds, or top 100 players.

2018: 4 offensive players. Hurst, LJ, Zeus Jr., Andrews,
2019: 2 offense, 1 defense. Hollywood, Ferguson, Boykin
2020: 3&3. Queen, JK, Madibuike, Duvernay, Harrison, Phillips
2021: 2&2. Bateman, Oweh, Cleveland, Stephens
2022: 1&3. Hamilton, Linderbaum, Ojabo, Jones

12-9 in favor of offense. But what have they given LJ? Two TEs, one worse than the second so they traded him. A stellar tackle who ended up wanting out of here. A good WR who later wanted out of here. A RZ target WR who ended up barely being a run blocking role player and then was let go. Stud RB who hasn’t played a full season yet, considering he was brought along so slow as a rookie. Another WR who is being underutilized. Two bad OL, one who was already let go. Another I think stud WR who can’t stay on the field. A stud Center.

Common threads are , doesn’t want to play here, can’t stay on the field, and were just not good. All should be red flags.


Good points.

I should've been more specific. In the Flacco era, draft resources were heavily slanted towards defense.

FA dollars, at least big contracts, are almost exclusively for defense. Since Derrick Mason, what offensive player has gotten real FA money from the Ravens? There's been some solid Oline acquisitions (Zeitler and Moses) but everything else seems to be bargain basement vets in the November of their careers.
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#1224 Slidemaster

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Posted 05 January 2023 - 10:35 AM

This might be the most interesting off season in Ravens history. I think there is still a good deal of sentiment around the league that they should just pony up and re-sign Lamar for whatever it takes. We're going to find out very quickly what his market is, what people are willing to spend on him, and what he might potentially fetch in a trade. 5 years from now, whatever DeCosta does will be looked back upon as the defining moment in his career to date. The impact of the negotiation will have a drastic effect on the way the roster looks, how they draft, and who is coaching. Everything is likely to happen quickly, as I don't think the Ravens are interested in a prolonged battle that goes through the draft and into training camp.

I'm almost looking at the playoffs as an afterthought at this point, because I think that what's going to happen afterward is going to be much more intriguing.

One thing that I know will never happen, but that is interesting to think about, is whether the Ravens would ever trade Harbaugh with Lamar. They still appeared to have a great relationship after their last win, and I don't know if Harbaugh would be interested in trading him, even if DeCosta thought it was the right move. If push came to shove and they wanted to clean house, they might try to package coach and quarterback together and let them set up shop somewhere else.

Or at least, that's theoretically possible. The chances of that are probably less than 1%.

#1225 hallas

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Posted 11 January 2023 - 01:34 AM

Here's an interesting proposal I saw on Reddit:

Lamar to the Jets for Sauce, next year's first (they're picking 13th), and next year's 2nd, and maybe one more non-first rounder.

Sauce on our squad to replace Peters might turn us into the 2000 Ravens.
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#1226 Slidemaster

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Posted 11 January 2023 - 02:36 AM

Here's an interesting proposal I saw on Reddit:

Lamar to the Jets for Sauce, next year's first (they're picking 13th), and next year's 2nd, and maybe one more non-first rounder.

Sauce on our squad to replace Peters might turn us into the 2000 Ravens.


Sauce and two firsts is where it starts for me, and probably a bit more.

#1227 Mike in STL

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Posted 11 January 2023 - 02:45 AM

So I think I found a number I'd be comfortable with. 

 

TL:DR - He won't take it. But it's what I'd be comfortable with.

 

Options:

Transition tag - zero chance. 

Exclusive franchise tag - Average of the top 5 QB salaries which for this year would be $47.3M. This number is fluid and based on where they are in April of 23'.  Lamar cannot negotiate with other teams. On an estimated $220M salary cap next year, this would be about 21.5% of the cap.

Non-Exclusive franchise tag - Sum of the last five QB franchise tags / sum of the last 5 salary caps = % of the cap this franchise tag would cost. I got 13.6% which on a $220M salary cap = $29.92M. Lamar can negotiate with other teams. If a team makes an offer, the Ravens have five days to match the offer or Lamar goes to that team for two first round picks.

 

Final option: Extension

 

I've said many times that teams need to break the trend of paying their QB the next highest amount of money, even when they aren't elite talents. The Watson deal is an anomaly. I would treat Murray's as one too. I would not compare to Russ, or Rodgers, or other vets well past their second contracts as they have accomplished more and are not your peers in these discussions. 

 

Further, In the last two seasons, four QBs have finished with a higher QBR in both seasons, and (I hate that I'm saying this but I wanted another marker) a higher PFF grade in both seasons than Lamar. Those guys are Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Dak Prescott, and Joe Burrow. I wanted to look at their contract benchmarks. Burrow obviously not counting. But this was also hard given the uniqueness of the Mahomes deal.

 

The following doesn't include incentives

 

Mahomes: 10/$450M. AAV: $45M. Signing bonus: $10M. Guaranteed at signing: $63M. Guaranteed for injury: $141M. Take home cash in first two years: $11.8M (eeek).

Allen: 6/$258M. AAV: $43M. Signing bonus:  $16.5M. Guaranteed at signing: $100M. Guaranteed for injury: $150M. Take home cash in first two years: $67M. 

Prescott: 4/$160M. AAV: $40M. Signing bonus: $66M. Guaranteed at signing: $95M. Guaranteed for injury: $126M. Take home cash in first two years: $70.35M.

 

I've said I would offer Lamar fair market value, plus some extra. I'm not going to let the Watson's/Murray's drive the market. But rather pay attention to those Lamar is a step behind performance wise. Be in their ballpark.

 

The number I came up with is:

5/$210M. Similar to Prescott, coming off injury, in LJs case, two seasons in a row instead of one major one. Not more total years or money than Allen or Mahomes.

AAV: $42M. Larger than Prescott. Not larger than Allen, Mahomes. 

Signing bonus: $70M. Quick and dirty. I didn't get fancy with all kinds of stuff. Prorated out comes to $14M/year on the books.

Guaranteed at signing: $110M. More than all these guys, which is fair.

Guaranteed for injury: $130M. Just a tick above Prescott. 

Take home cash in the first two years: $75M. More than all these guys as well, which is fair. 

 

Structured it with small base salaries to have $16M, and $17M cap hits in 23' and 24'. That's a window to put a great team around him and see what he can do. 

Cap number becomes $54M in 25', 26', and 27'. These guys have low $50M's cap numbers in 2025. The cap might make it manageable by then. Also, if Lamar has an elite 23'-24', restructure and extend to lower the $54M cap hit. If he doesn't, play out 25' and cut him with $38M dead money for 26'. Spread over two years, under those cap numbers, more than reasonable.  


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#1228 Biggsy

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Posted 11 January 2023 - 04:46 AM

So I think I found a number I'd be comfortable with.

TL:DR - He won't take it. But it's what I'd be comfortable with.

Options:
Transition tag - zero chance.
Exclusive franchise tag - Average of the top 5 QB salaries which for this year would be $47.3M. This number is fluid and based on where they are in April of 23'. Lamar cannot negotiate with other teams. On an estimated $220M salary cap next year, this would be about 21.5% of the cap.
Non-Exclusive franchise tag - Sum of the last five QB franchise tags / sum of the last 5 salary caps = % of the cap this franchise tag would cost. I got 13.6% which on a $220M salary cap = $29.92M. Lamar can negotiate with other teams. If a team makes an offer, the Ravens have five days to match the offer or Lamar goes to that team for two first round picks.

Final option: Extension

I've said many times that teams need to break the trend of paying their QB the next highest amount of money, even when they aren't elite talents. The Watson deal is an anomaly. I would treat Murray's as one too. I would not compare to Russ, or Rodgers, or other vets well past their second contracts as they have accomplished more and are not your peers in these discussions.

Further, In the last two seasons, four QBs have finished with a higher QBR in both seasons, and (I hate that I'm saying this but I wanted another marker) a higher PFF grade in both seasons than Lamar. Those guys are Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Dak Prescott, and Joe Burrow. I wanted to look at their contract benchmarks. Burrow obviously not counting. But this was also hard given the uniqueness of the Mahomes deal.

The following doesn't include incentives

Mahomes: 10/$450M. AAV: $45M. Signing bonus: $10M. Guaranteed at signing: $63M. Guaranteed for injury: $141M. Take home cash in first two years: $11.8M (eeek).
Allen: 6/$258M. AAV: $43M. Signing bonus: $16.5M. Guaranteed at signing: $100M. Guaranteed for injury: $150M. Take home cash in first two years: $67M.
Prescott: 4/$160M. AAV: $40M. Signing bonus: $66M. Guaranteed at signing: $95M. Guaranteed for injury: $126M. Take home cash in first two years: $70.35M.

I've said I would offer Lamar fair market value, plus some extra. I'm not going to let the Watson's/Murray's drive the market. But rather pay attention to those Lamar is a step behind performance wise. Be in their ballpark.

The number I came up with is:
5/$210M. Similar to Prescott, coming off injury, in LJs case, two seasons in a row instead of one major one. Not more total years or money than Allen or Mahomes.
AAV: $42M. Larger than Prescott. Not larger than Allen, Mahomes.
Signing bonus: $70M. Quick and dirty. I didn't get fancy with all kinds of stuff. Prorated out comes to $14M/year on the books.
Guaranteed at signing: $110M. More than all these guys, which is fair.
Guaranteed for injury: $130M. Just a tick above Prescott.
Take home cash in the first two years: $75M. More than all these guys as well, which is fair.

Structured it with small base salaries to have $16M, and $17M cap hits in 23' and 24'. That's a window to put a great team around him and see what he can do.
Cap number becomes $54M in 25', 26', and 27'. These guys have low $50M's cap numbers in 2025. The cap might make it manageable by then. Also, if Lamar has an elite 23'-24', restructure and extend to lower the $54M cap hit. If he doesn't, play out 25' and cut him with $38M dead money for 26'. Spread over two years, under those cap numbers, more than reasonable.



I know you already prefaced that with saying he wouldn't take it. But if you were him, would you take that? Because putting myself in his shoes, why would I just throw out higher average contracts, that were signed last season?

You cannot just throw away deals and say that's not really his market. That's not exactly how it works. Maybe the Watson deal. As it was a terrible contract, given by a terrible franchise. But outside of that, every other deal signed, is what sets the market.
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#1229 Biggsy

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Posted 11 January 2023 - 04:49 AM

Here's an interesting proposal I saw on Reddit:

Lamar to the Jets for Sauce, next year's first (they're picking 13th), and next year's 2nd, and maybe one more non-first rounder.

Sauce on our squad to replace Peters might turn us into the 2000 Ravens.



They 100% will not offer Gardner in any trade. If they did, I would be shocked. It is the Jets however. But trading potentially the next Revis after only one season, just doesn't seem realistic. If they're trading for Lamar, they're doing it to make themselves a contender. Trading him for your beat defensive player, as well as your near future building blocks, seems very counter-productive.

#1230 hallas

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Posted 11 January 2023 - 05:12 AM

They 100% will not offer Gardner in any trade. If they did, I would be shocked. It is the Jets however. But trading potentially the next Revis after only one season, just doesn't seem realistic. If they're trading for Lamar, they're doing it to make themselves a contender. Trading him for your beat defensive player, as well as your near future building blocks, seems very counter-productive.

 

What would you think Sauce's trade value is in terms of picks?  I'm thinking maybe 2 firsts.  If that is his trade value, and Lamar is worth 3 decently high position firsts, then it seems like Lamar for Sauce + a first rounder + a 2nd rounder is pretty close to fair value.

 

Any team trading for Lamar is trading away some form of cost controlled building blocks in the form of picks.  Sauce is a bit more valuable on that front because he's shown he can play CB at a high level already, but his value there isn't infinite and their path with Lamar as their quarterback doesn't necessarily run through their defense.



#1231 Biggsy

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Posted 11 January 2023 - 08:33 AM

What would you think Sauce's trade value is in terms of picks? I'm thinking maybe 2 firsts. If that is his trade value, and Lamar is worth 3 decently high position firsts, then it seems like Lamar for Sauce + a first rounder + a 2nd rounder is pretty close to fair value.

Any team trading for Lamar is trading away some form of cost controlled building blocks in the form of picks. Sauce is a bit more valuable on that front because he's shown he can play CB at a high level already, but his value there isn't infinite and their path with Lamar as their quarterback doesn't necessarily run through their defense.



He was a top 5 pick, and played at an all-pro level as a rookie. How valuable was Revis at 22 years old? As valuable as the QB position is, a legit lock down CB isn't that far behind. Huge difference in value between an unknown draft pick, and a 22 year old, all-pro caliber CB on a rookie contract for 4 more years.

#1232 Mike in STL

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Posted 11 January 2023 - 08:35 AM

I know you already prefaced that with saying he wouldn't take it. But if you were him, would you take that? Because putting myself in his shoes, why would I just throw out higher average contracts, that were signed last season?

You cannot just throw away deals and say that's not really his market. That's not exactly how it works. Maybe the Watson deal. As it was a terrible contract, given by a terrible franchise. But outside of that, every other deal signed, is what sets the market.


They already offered him a deal that beat benchmarks set by Murray and Wilson’s deals this past offseason. He turned it down, and as of today his stock is lower than last offseason. He bet on himself and lost (for now). So that level of offer is off the table for me. Like I said, I also think they shouldn’t just beat the last contracts for the sake of doing so. Burrow is showing he’s worthy of a deal that pays $47M+ AAV. Lamar is not.

Now if he dusts himself off and plays let’s say three or four more games this season, I would certainly reevaluate that.

But as of today, I also think getting more cash on day one, and more cash on hand in the first two years than Mahomes, Allen, Prescott, is nothing to sneeze at.

Sure, Lamar can say Murray is worse than him and he should get more than him. He is not a sexual predator so he should get more than one. But the Ravens can also say these guys (Mahomes, Allen, Prescott, soon to be Burrow) are better and we are willing to go over some of those benchmarks for you. With the caveat of being able to get out of the deal in three years.

Today, I don’t want to be locked into a 5+ year commitment, but I will pay him more upfront than guys proven to be better than him, to prove himself over the next two or three years. Then see if we can commit to more.

To answer your question of would I take it? Probably not right away. I would negotiate, and the Ravens I would expect to be a little flexible. But I might be scared that I already turned down $133M guaranteed. That number dropped to $100M in this offer. Do I want to risk that number dropping again next year? Do I want to risk being traded to a team going absolutely no where, with an O-line that might get me killed?

The Ravens shouldn’t be held hostage by Lamar’s demands. His leverage is minimal right now. He has one game at a time, if he even suits up, to gain any leverage back.
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#1233 makoman

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Posted 11 January 2023 - 08:42 AM

I know you already prefaced that with saying he wouldn't take it. But if you were him, would you take that? Because putting myself in his shoes, why would I just throw out higher average contracts, that were signed last season?

You cannot just throw away deals and say that's not really his market. That's not exactly how it works. Maybe the Watson deal. As it was a terrible contract, given by a terrible franchise. But outside of that, every other deal signed, is what sets the market.

I agree, if people want to throw out the Watson deal I can understand it (though Lamar can easily say, why should I?). But you can't just throw out the Murray deal. Contracts always go up. Mahomes is the best QB on the planet by far, but his deal isn't and shouldn't be the benchmark 3 years later. Flacco wasn't the best QB either when he became the highest paid player, it's just how it is.

 

Also a minor nitpick, Burrow and Dak each had a lower QBR than Lamar this year, maybe I misunderstood and you averaged the seasons?



#1234 Slidemaster

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Posted 11 January 2023 - 08:43 AM

It's so interesting how different the takes from fans are. In the media, there is definitely a narrative that the Ravens are the bad guys, and don't want to pay Lamar what he's worth. I don't see how that can be the conclusion they come to (though some of that is from former players like Shannon Sharpe, who are all about player salaries).

#1235 ivanbalt

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Posted 11 January 2023 - 08:48 AM

It's so interesting how different the takes from fans are. In the media, there is definitely a narrative that the Ravens are the bad guys, and don't want to pay Lamar what he's worth. I don't see how that can be the conclusion they come to (though some of that is from former players like Shannon Sharpe, who are all about player salaries).


The media seems to operate under the assumption that there is no salary cap and unlimited money.  Lamar should have got whatever he wanted fully guaranteed.  Chiefs should have paid Tyreek Hill $30mil a year.  Same for the Packers with Adams as well as Rodgers' $50 mil a year.



#1236 Mike in STL

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Posted 11 January 2023 - 09:13 AM

I agree, if people want to throw out the Watson deal I can understand it (though Lamar can easily say, why should I?). But you can't just throw out the Murray deal. Contracts always go up. Mahomes is the best QB on the planet by far, but his deal isn't and shouldn't be the benchmark 3 years later. Flacco wasn't the best QB either when he became the highest paid player, it's just how it is.

Also a minor nitpick, Burrow and Dak each had a lower QBR than Lamar this year, maybe I misunderstood and you averaged the seasons?

“It’s just how it is” is how you make Derek Carr the highest paid QB in the league. That’s my whole point. Teams shouldn’t just give those deals out to good but not elite players and I’ll be pretty pissed if Lamar doesn’t suit up in the playoffs and somehow enters 2023 the highest paid QB by some benchmark because “it’s just how it is”. It’s nice to have him. You don’t need him.

Truth is, he turned down a huge deal. Bet on himself and lost (for now). If he bet on himself and had an MVP caliber season with the Ravens in the 1 seed, sure, up that offer. But you don’t up the offer after what he’s done, and hasn’t done this year. It has to go down.

And when I was looking at the QBR numbers it was before week 18, so I see where last week Dak and Burrow dropped a point or two behind LJ.

Edit: There is also the obvious difference where Flacco had won a ton of playoff games, three AFC championship game appearances, played good enough to win two, a Super Bowl run with numbers only matched by Joe Montana. LJ needs to do a fraction of that, and no better time than now.
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#1237 makoman

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Posted 11 January 2023 - 09:28 AM

“It’s just how it is” is how you make Derek Carr the highest paid QB in the league. That’s my whole point. Teams shouldn’t just give those deals out to good but not elite players and I’ll be pretty pissed if Lamar doesn’t suit up in the playoffs and somehow enters 2023 the highest paid QB by some benchmark because “it’s just how it is”. It’s nice to have him. You don’t need him.

Truth is, he turned down a huge deal. Bet on himself and lost (for now). If he bet on himself and had an MVP caliber season with the Ravens in the 1 seed, sure, up that offer. But you don’t up the offer after what he’s done, and hasn’t done this year. It has to go down.

And when I was looking at the QBR numbers it was before week 18, so I see where last week Dak and Burrow dropped a point or two behind LJ.

Edit: There is also the obvious difference where Flacco had won a ton of playoff games, three AFC championship game appearances, played good enough to win two, a Super Bowl run with numbers only matched by Joe Montana. LJ needs to do a fraction of that, and no better time than now.

It's fair if you don't want to follow "It's just how it is." You probably trade him then. But I don't see QB salaries going down. I imagine Herbert and Burrow will show this offseason that the Murray deal isn't an outlier. I don't really think of Lamar as being in a lower level than those guys, except that I am starting to have durability concerns.



#1238 Mackus

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Posted 11 January 2023 - 10:13 AM

I don't agree that Lamar's value is lower after this season than it was before.  He didn't have a strong year, but the market is constantly going up, his value probably rose less than the other top QBs, but it still rose.  Time and waiting is against the teams in these cases, things go up and up so you wanna lock them in sooner if you wanna freeze their value.  I would be surprised if he takes less than the Ravens offered in August.  Also would be surprised if the Ravens reduce their offer to something less than their last.



#1239 Mackus

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Posted 11 January 2023 - 10:15 AM

Anyone know if the exclusive tag is the average of the top 5 cap hits, the top 5 APYs (i.e. total deal / years) or top-5 salaries for 2023 + prorated bonus or just the top-5 base salaries?

 

My guess is top-5 2023 salaries plus the prorated bonus.  But I can't find the exact wording anywhere.  All the articles I say just say top 5 highest paid players at the position for 2023.

 

For what it's worth, this guy projects the value to be $45.2M.

https://www.cbssport...-each-position/



#1240 CantonJester

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Posted 11 January 2023 - 10:25 AM

Sauce and two firsts is where it starts for me, and probably a bit more.

 

I mean, you realize the Jets hang up the phone laughing here, right? Maybe if they are given a window to extend Jackson, but frankly speaking, Gardner's shutdown capabilities make him perhaps more rare than Jackson (who has at least a dozen contemporaries at his level). Sprinkle in the fact Jackson's missed significant time in two of his first four seasons, and Gardner's under team control over the next several seasons, perhaps it's Baltimore who would be tossing picks New York's way...

 

I kid, but there's no way NYJ are including draft picks on a Gardner / Jackson swap. 






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