5723 replies to this topic

[Tranquil1]

I won't comment on the Lamar quitting on the team angle. That said, I wouldn't try to sign him to any kind of deal. I'd non exclusive tag him and let him make his deal elsewhere and take the two 1's as compensation. He's damaged goods at this point and to make an assumption that he'd complete any deal without missing time is dangerous.

[Mackus]

I won't comment on the Lamar quitting on the team angle. That said, I wouldn't try to sign him to any kind of deal. I'd non exclusive tag him and let him make his deal elsewhere and take the two 1's as compensation. He's damaged goods at this point and to make an assumption that he'd complete any deal without missing time is dangerous.

 

Why would you intentionally take less than you're able to get for him?  You'll get more by using the exclusive tag and then trading him than just the two #1s from the non-exclusive tag.  I don't think there is any reason to doubt that.

[Tranquil1]

Why would you intentionally take less than you're able to get for him?  You'll get more by using the exclusive tag and then trading him than just the two #1s from the non-exclusive tag.  I don't think there is any reason to doubt that.

How do you know that? I think you are overestimating Lamar's value on the market. But I would hope you are correct and I am wrong.

[Mackus]

How do you know that? I think you are overestimating Lamar's value on the market. But I would hope you are correct and I am wrong.

 

Same way anyone gauges any player's value, the same way we're all estimating what it'll take to sign him.  We all pegged Smith due for a contract of about $20M a year and that's exactly what he got.  Its not pre-ordained, but its not too hard to put rough estimates on guys, both for trade value and contract value.  Estimates may be plus or minus a bit, but in the ballpark.  If you look at what other good (though not as valuable as Lamar) QBs have brought in trade recently, its been quite a bit more than just two #1s.  Even if I'm overestimating Lamar's return, it'll still be for more than just some team's next two #1s like they'd sacrifice on a franchise tag signee.  I've got no doubt of that.  Some players could possibly come back in lieu of pick(s), but the overall package will still beat that value threshold. 

 

I still would prefer to just sign him ourselves.  I'd slightly beat Watson's deal if that is what it takes, something like 5/$235M.  Or a little higher APY if it's not fully guaranteed.

[JStruds]

Same way anyone gauges any player's value, the same way we're all estimating what it'll take to sign him. We all pegged Smith due for a contract of about $20M a year and that's exactly what he got. Its not pre-ordained, but its not too hard to put rough estimates on guys, both for trade value and contract value. Estimates may be plus or minus a bit, but in the ballpark. If you look at what other good (though not as valuable as Lamar) QBs have brought in trade recently, its been quite a bit more than just two #1s. Even if I'm overestimating Lamar's return, it'll still be for more than just some team's next two #1s like they'd sacrifice on a franchise tag signee. .

Will GMs focus on the good return for Stafford - at least for one season, or the awful deal for Wilson? And, won't they take into account his missing the last quarter of the last two seasons? Not convinced his value is as high as you believe, though back in September I would have agreed.

[hallas]

How do you know that? I think you are overestimating Lamar's value on the market. But I would hope you are correct and I am wrong.

 

Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson post-massage parlor both returned more than 2 firsts in sign and trade.  Lamar's value is almost certainly much higher than Wilson's, and you have to think it's at least equal to Watson's even if you are much higher on Watson's ability on the field given his off-field drama.  Watson returned 3 firsts including pick 12.  With a franchise pick signing we don't get much of a choice with regard to pick order, so the first rounder might be pick 22 or it might be pick 8, depending on who signs him.  If we get pick 10 or better then it might be ok value, but the higher the pick compensation is, the lower the likelihood that Lamar signs an offer sheet from that team.  Matt Stafford also traded for 2 firsts including a stopgap qb, so that return was higher than the franchise tag as well.

 

Dak Prescott got a close to top of market deal after injuries so I really don't think his injury is going to seriously negatively affect his market.  His accuracy issues are only relative to other all-pro level QBs, he is still a top-10 or top-12 passing qb in the league.

[hallas]

Will GMs focus on the good return for Stafford - at least for one season, or the awful deal for Wilson? And, won't they take into account his missing the last quarter of the last two seasons? Not convinced his value is as high as you believe, though back in September I would have agreed.

 

I think both players' age at the time of trade washes out any negative effect Lamar's injury is going to have.

 

And we don't have any comps higher than this because good to great QBs less than 30 are priceless and thus never on the market.

[JStruds]

I think both players' age at the time of trade washes out any negative effect Lamar's injury is going to have.

And we don't have any comps higher than this because good to great QBs less than 30 are priceless and thus never on the market.

Good point on the age factor. Not that I'd ever qualify as a GM, but I'm still not convinced. However, I believe there are almost certainly some teams/GMs who will be willing to take a larger gamble than "just" two first round picks

[Mike in STL]

Anyone know how the offer sheet works?

 

If they put the non-exclusive franchise tag on Lamar, any team can submit an offer sheet and the Ravens have 5 days to match the offer, or Lamar goes to that team for two first round picks.

 

My question is, if another team submits an offer, call it a lowball offer the Ravens feel comfortable matching, in a way would another team be doing the negotiation between Lamar and the Ravens?

 

Random team offers Lamar 5/$125M. Ravens say, we'll match that. Is Lamar tied to the Ravens for less than what he wanted, and less than what the Ravens thought they would have to offer? I guess the idea behind an offer sheet is for a team to be the high bidder, but lets say Lamar gets one of these "competitive offers" like the Orioles have been supposedly making. Lol.

[hallas]

Good point on the age factor. Not that I'd ever qualify as a GM, but I'm still not convinced. However, I believe there are almost certainly some teams/GMs who will be willing to take a larger gamble than "just" two first round picks

 

I mentioned this in my other post but there's also a level of control you get from giving him the exclusive tag and then trading him, because he can sign an offer sheet with a playoff team that doesn't have a high pick, or a team that already traded away their 2023 first rounder, which reduces the value of the return significantly.  By forcing a trade to acquire Lamar we have the flexibility to trade him for a single first (1:1 or 1:2) or a collection of picks including 3+ that are much lower, both of which would not be valid returns with a non-exclusive tag but likely have similar value.

[hallas]

Anyone know how the offer sheet works?

 

If they put the non-exclusive franchise tag on Lamar, any team can submit an offer sheet and the Ravens have 5 days to match the offer, or Lamar goes to that team for two first round picks.

 

My question is, if another team submits an offer, call it a lowball offer the Ravens feel comfortable matching, in a way would another team be doing the negotiation between Lamar and the Ravens?

 

Random team offers Lamar 5/$125M. Ravens say, we'll match that. Is Lamar tied to the Ravens for less than what he wanted, and less than what the Ravens thought they would have to offer? I guess the idea behind an offer sheet is for a team to be the high bidder, but lets say Lamar gets one of these "competitive offers" like the Orioles have been supposedly making. Lol.

 

Doesn't Lamar have to sign the offer sheet?  He's not signing a 5/125 offer sheet.

[Mackus]

Anyone know how the offer sheet works?

 

If they put the non-exclusive franchise tag on Lamar, any team can submit an offer sheet and the Ravens have 5 days to match the offer, or Lamar goes to that team for two first round picks.

 

My question is, if another team submits an offer, call it a lowball offer the Ravens feel comfortable matching, in a way would another team be doing the negotiation between Lamar and the Ravens?

 

Random team offers Lamar 5/$125M. Ravens say, we'll match that. Is Lamar tied to the Ravens for less than what he wanted, and less than what the Ravens thought they would have to offer? I guess the idea behind an offer sheet is for a team to be the high bidder, but lets say Lamar gets one of these "competitive offers" like the Orioles have been supposedly making. Lol.

 

Lol, of course it doesn't work like this.  Lamar has to agree to the offer sheet and sign it.

[PrimeTime]

I'm growing fatigued of this take that the Ravens organization failed or disrespected Lamar because a deal didn't get done. From all the reports, the Ravens put a very fair offer on the table but it didn't meet Lamar's expectations, so negotiations ended. As an organization, you have to decide where you value the player and what you're willing to go to, then make your best offer. It's not like Baltimore tried to give Lamar a deal that was like 30 mil AAV. 

[You Play to Win the Game]

I'm growing fatigued of this take that the Ravens organization failed or disrespected Lamar because a deal didn't get done. From all the reports, the Ravens put a very fair offer on the table but it didn't meet Lamar's expectations, so negotiations ended. As an organization, you have to decide where you value the player and what you're willing to go to, then make your best offer. It's not like Baltimore tried to give Lamar a deal that was like 30 mil AAV.

It’s just a short sighted and ill informed narrative. If anything, the Ravens have definitely earned the benefit of the doubt. That includes if they’ve decided they aren’t going to extend him at this point. They’ll ultimately have to make it work either way, and either way they’ll be responsible for the outcome. But they have earned and deserve the benefit of the doubt here.

[hallas]

Lets say we make the offer 5/245, the full amount guaranteed for injury, but only 145-ish fully guaranteed at signing, that becomes fully guaranteed by year 3.  Does Lamar sign this, and would you offer him this?

 

A bit bigger than Deshaun Watson's deal, but only a bit, and the onus is on him to perform, but if he suffers an injury he's protected.  It would still the largest amount guaranteed for injury.

[Mackus]

I'm growing fatigued of this take that the Ravens organization failed or disrespected Lamar because a deal didn't get done. From all the reports, the Ravens put a very fair offer on the table but it didn't meet Lamar's expectations, so negotiations ended. As an organization, you have to decide where you value the player and what you're willing to go to, then make your best offer. It's not like Baltimore tried to give Lamar a deal that was like 30 mil AAV.

Agree. Ravens made a fair and reasonable offer (assuming the deal reported was accurate and all the rumored guaranteed money was at signing). Lamar made a fair and reasonable demand. Difference between doesn't mean that one side or the other acted in bad faith.

[Mackus]

Lets say we make the offer 5/245, the full amount guaranteed for injury, but only 145-ish fully guaranteed at signing, that becomes fully guaranteed by year 3. Does Lamar sign this, and would you offer him this?

A bit bigger than Deshaun Watson's deal, but only a bit, and the onus is on him to perform, but if he suffers an injury he's protected. It would still the largest amount guaranteed for injury.

Lamar turns it down. I would offer it.

What you described sounds very similar to the reported Ravens offer.

[Steve55]

Is it right after the Super Bowl that players become FA's or the beginning of the league year .?

 

Can he be traded before that with the new team agreeing to a contract and announce it day 1 of league year.

[hallas]

Lamar turns it down. I would offer it.

What you described sounds very similar to the reported Ravens offer.

 

The Ravens reported offer was for 250, had reportedly 130-135 fully guaranteed, and it did not have the full contract amount guaranteed for injury.  I was wondering specifically if a full guarantee for injury would be something to compromise on for both Lamar and the Ravens.

[Mike in STL]

Is it right after the Super Bowl that players become FA's or the beginning of the league year .?

 

Can he be traded before that with the new team agreeing to a contract and announce it day 1 of league year.

Beginning of the league year. I think there is a two week window between Feb.-March where players can be assigned the tag. I guess he could be traded anytime before day 1, and the new team could announce the deal anytime, but it wouldn't go into effect day 1. Teams now a days are announcing FA signings a couple days before the new league year, they just aren't official yet.