5723 replies to this topic

[hallas]

I think Lamar's market may have been miscalculated because he isn't your typical plug-and-play type of quarterback. Perhaps the league simply doesn't value him as highly as he appears to value himself.

 

 

Well, with the increasing number of teams running dual threat quarterbacks today, he's becoming one.  Maybe he had the misfortune of being the first.

[makoman]

I can't find QB hits taken on PFR, can you point me to it?

 

You have to take into account total number of attempts as well. Allen, Mahomes and Burrow throw the ball a lot more than Jackson so it stands to reason they would take more QB hits as a result. 

 

For another perspective, Jackson has been sacked on 7.4% of his career attempts; Mahomes is at 3.9%, Allen is at 5.6% and Burrow is at 7.5%. And Burrow is perceived as taking a lot of sacks, he and Jackson are almost identical there.

Hallas got you.

 

And sure, you will be hit more when you throw more, but I thought that was kind of the point, that we are worried about the accumulative nature of many hits. Lamar gets hit more running but less throwing. Mahomes gets hit less running but more throwing. I know it doesn't completely make up for it but it brings it back a little closer...and I still maintain that running hits can be mitigated, passing hits not really.

 

I just did past 3 years because that's Hurts'/Burrow's career, here is hits+sacks (they seem to count them separately)+runs

Allen 585

Lamar 565

Hurts 510

Herbert 476

Mahomes 438

Murray 423

Burrow 419

 

Definitely would like more judicious use of running to mitigate hits. But no one says Herbert is going to break down because he gets hit too much, and he's only had 89 fewer hits than Lamar over 3 years, something like 2-3 hits per game.

[PrimeTime]

On the player page, go to advanced passing, and click on the "pressure" tab.

 

Thanks....

 

Did some quick calculations and Lamar took hits on 5.9% of his dropbacks, Mahomes is at 9.2% and Allen is 8.8%

 

The interesting thing is that Josh Allen has 223 scrambles in 77 career games, Jackson has 180 scrambles in 70 career games. Jackson has more designed runs than Allen (547 to 323). For what it's worth, I think Bills fans should absolutely be concerned about Allen in the same manner than many are concerned about Jackson. 

[PrimeTime]

Hallas got you.

 

And sure, you will be hit more when you throw more, but I thought that was kind of the point, that we are worried about the accumulative nature of many hits. Lamar gets hit more running but less throwing. Mahomes gets hit less running but more throwing. I know it doesn't completely make up for it but it brings it back a little closer...and I still maintain that running hits can be mitigated, passing hits not really.

 

I just did past 3 years because that's Hurts'/Burrow's career, here is hits+sacks (they seem to count them separately)+runs

Allen 585

Lamar 565

Hurts 510

Herbert 476

Mahomes 438

Murray 423

Burrow 419

 

Definitely would like more judicious use of running to mitigate hits. But no one says Herbert is going to break down because he gets hit too much, and he's only had 89 fewer hits than Lamar over 3 years, something like 2-3 hits per game.

 

I guess this all gets into deeper sports science then. Is getting hit in the pocket more or less exertion than taking off an running? If you wanted to open it up even further, roughing the passer penalties aren't plays, so they don't count in the QB hit column. 

 

I didn't intend to open up a huge can of worms but it has been an interesting discussion. Let's just say from an anecdotal standpoint that a quarterback averaging over 10 carries a game does not seem like a sustainable model; I don't care how shifty or athletic you are. 

[mdrunning]

Well, with the increasing number of teams running dual threat quarterbacks today, he's becoming one.  Maybe he had the misfortune of being the first.

A group that includes, I would presume, Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson, Jalen Hurts and DeShaun Watson? Other than Hurts, who has yet to go through the contract extension process, I'd say the current employers of the other three might be experiencing varying degrees of buyer's remorse.

[hallas]

A group that includes, I would presume, Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson, Jalen Hurts and DeShaun Watson? Other than Hurts, who has yet to go through the contract extension process, I'd say the current employers of the other three might be experiencing varying degrees of buyer's remorse.

 

Wilson worked out fine for his first extension.

 

Allen and Justin Fields too.

 

Murray is still TBD.

 

Watson is an awful deal because of his off field problems.  There's no amount of on-field performance that will justify that deal for me.

[makoman]

I guess this all gets into deeper sports science then. Is getting hit in the pocket more or less exertion than taking off an running? If you wanted to open it up even further, roughing the passer penalties aren't plays, so they don't count in the QB hit column. 

 

I didn't intend to open up a huge can of worms but it has been an interesting discussion. Let's just say from an anecdotal standpoint that a quarterback averaging over 10 carries a game does not seem like a sustainable model; I don't care how shifty or athletic you are. 

Yeah I was just curious where the numbers would go, it is interesting to think about and I'm glad we had the discussion. 

 

I have no clue what science would say, but intuitively I would rather be hit as a ball carrier than a QB. You can mostly see it coming and prepare for it, and at least some % of them you're getting out of bounds or sliding. As a thrower you are looking down field and can see some but not everything. While the rules have changed a lot for protection, your legs especially just are planting in the middle of chaos and left wide open for hits. 

 

At the same time I agree with you that I'd rather see fewer runs going forward (assuming he's here long term). Still use it because it's a big threat, but you don't need to be running QB power into an 8 man front unnecessarily.

[hallas]

Thanks....

 

Did some quick calculations and Lamar took hits on 5.9% of his dropbacks, Mahomes is at 9.2% and Allen is 8.8%

 

The interesting thing is that Josh Allen has 223 scrambles in 77 career games, Jackson has 180 scrambles in 70 career games. Jackson has more designed runs than Allen (547 to 323). For what it's worth, I think Bills fans should absolutely be concerned about Allen in the same manner than many are concerned about Jackson. 

 

This is purely a qualitative observation, but Allen does a ton of designed runs and scrambles, and he runs into contact much more than Lamar does.  He hasn't really gotten hurt other than his elbow, so maybe he's just built different, but man I'd be staining my pants every game if Lamar got hit the way Allen does.

[mdrunning]

For me, Josh Allen is a quarterback who can also run (although I agree with above post regarding his runs). I guess the question is whether Lamar also falls into this category or is he a runner who happens to play quarterback?

[jamesdean]

This is purely a qualitative observation, but Allen does a ton of designed runs and scrambles, and he runs into contact much more than Lamar does.  He hasn't really gotten hurt other than his elbow, so maybe he's just built different, but man I'd be staining my pants every game if Lamar got hit the way Allen does.

Allen's a big dude.  I think that was one of the reasons Lamar added muscular weight going into last season...to better withstand the blows. I also think he lost a step last year and didn't have that explosive burst around the corner. The contributing factor may have been the added weight or maybe he's already gone past his peak speed.  

[weird-O]

Yeah I'd be very concerned about the next contract, less about this one.

 

I'd be curious to know how many of his carries end up out of bounds/kneel/slide, and compare to the average RB.

I can only share my observation. Because I've taken to paying particular attention to the times he runs the ball. In his first season as he starting QB, he took a hit almost every time. RG3 told him that damage isn't worth an extra YPC. After that, he started avoiding contact. he'd slide or run out. In the past couple of seasons, he only took the hit, if it meant getting a 1st down vs. not. And that wasn't too often. Again, it's just my observation, and stats could prove me to be way off the mark. But I think he followed the advice, and started playing it smarter (I didn't want to use the word "safer", because that has negative connotations). 

[mdrunning]

Cheetahs rely on their legs to survive. Cheetahs are also listed as an endangered species. 

[makoman]

Cheetahs rely on their legs to survive. Cheetahs are also listed as an endangered species.

And whales don’t even have legs and are also endangered. As long as we’re making non sequiturs.

[hallas]

Allen's a big dude.  I think that was one of the reasons Lamar added muscular weight going into last season...to better withstand the blows. I also think he lost a step last year and didn't have that explosive burst around the corner. The contributing factor may have been the added weight or maybe he's already gone past his peak speed.  

 

Jackson posted his peak NGS speed measurement in 2022 and he had a higher percentage of 15+ yard runs than any other season.  He didn't run as often so that counteracted it a bit.  But when he did he was pretty successful.

 

I think that for whatever reason, be it better preparation by opposing defenses, or maybe he did lose a half step, defenses seemed to be able to tackle him before he ran in for a TD more often in 2022.  So instead of a 45 yard TD, he'd get a 32 yard run short of the end zone.  But the sample size on these is pretty small so its tough to say for sure.

[jamesdean]

Jackson posted his peak NGS speed measurement in 2022 and he had a higher percentage of 15+ yard runs than any other season.  He didn't run as often so that counteracted it a bit.  But when he did he was pretty successful.

 

I think that for whatever reason, be it better preparation by opposing defenses, or maybe he did lose a half step, defenses seemed to be able to tackle him before he ran in for a TD more often in 2022.  So instead of a 45 yard TD, he'd get a 32 yard run short of the end zone.  But the sample size on these is pretty small so its tough to say for sure.

Not sure what NGS stands for but to me, he just looked slower.  He's still faster than most of course but that explosion around the edge looked missing to me.  I suppose it's possible defenders have learned what angles to take with him after looking at film over the past few years but overall, I'm going by what I saw.  If you watch video from 2018-20, his speed is breathtaking.  

[makoman]

Not sure what NGS stands for but to me, he just looked slower. He's still faster than most of course but that explosion around the edge looked missing to me. I suppose it's possible defenders have learned what angles to take with him after looking at film over the past few years but overall, I'm going by what I saw. If you watch video from 2018-20, his speed is breathtaking.

Next gen stats. Everybody had gps trackers on them these days to show their speeds and location and stuff.

[hallas]

Not sure what NGS stands for but to me, he just looked slower.  He's still faster than most of course but that explosion around the edge looked missing to me.  I suppose it's possible defenders have learned what angles to take with him after looking at film over the past few years but overall, I'm going by what I saw.  If you watch video from 2018-20, his speed is breathtaking.  

 

NFL Next Gen Stats.

 

edit to add:  top speed is a little misleading to be honest, but he definitely still had it available to him.  Lamar's a breathtaking runner because of his change of direction ability and his ability to read running lanes.

[bmore_ken]

Lamar Jackson rushing

2022- 9 per game

2021- 11 per game

2020-10 per game

Seems much ado about nothing. 

[bmore_ken]

Not sure what NGS stands for but to me, he just looked slower.   

He wasn't any slower in my opinion. Just more hesitant to run. Back in 2019, 2020 he saw an opening and took off. Last season he delayed that decision until the very last minute with a collapsing pocket.  

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Cheetahs rely on their legs to survive. Cheetahs are also listed as an endangered species.

ROFL