5723 replies to this topic

[bmore_ken]

Hence why you should think before you post. Thinking hes gonna be non effective or a non threat like most aged RBs is just a horrible take

I rarely agree with you, but this is one of those rare times.

[bmore_ken]

Agreed but I'm talking about the accumulative effect of running as much as he does.

I would guess RBs run 15-20 times a game. I doubt Lamar is running that much.

[ivanbalt]

I would guess RBs run 15-20 times a game. I doubt Lamar is running that much.

Not JK Dobbins.   

[bmore_ken]

Not JK Dobbins. 

Well between injuries and an inept OC, ya know 

[PrimeTime]

Lol. Lamar will still be a huge threat with his legs. Acting likehe is a RB who is gonna fall off a cliff is hilarious. If Zeke Elliot could be a QB hed still be dangerous. Do people think before they post.Yes, Lamar shouldnt be expected to be as explosive as he has been hes still gonna be super dangerous

 

No one said he was going to fall off a cliff but to ignore the increased workload over and above a "regular" QB, along with the seemingly minor injuries that have lingered the last 2 years is a huge case of ostrich syndrome. You have to take that stuff into account, which is absolutely a factor in this whole ordeal. The Ravens obviously have a line in the sand and the rest of the NFL doesn't seem anxious to throw a big contract his way, 

 

It's ok to offer legitimate concerns and criticisms of Jackson. It doesn't mean we hate him or anything. Not sure why you seem to take it so personally.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

The guy was way off in his assesment. I dont need to defend what I said. Everything youve said above has merit. What doesnt have merit is acting like his legs wont be a weapon or that his overall effectiveness will take a big hit like RBs do once they hit a certain wall. I said it a month or so ago. After everything hes accomplished and proved from the QB position people still out here acting like hes a RB. The same criticisms aimed at him when he came into the league. People are biased and cant come off of that bias.

[Mackus]

This was from a fantasy perspective, but for RBs that's pretty high correlation to actual production.

 

https://www.pff.com/...wall#:~:text=It's%20no%20secret%20that%20running,They%20don't.

 

Some excerpts:

 

• Average fantasy PPG peaks at age 25 and remains steady through age 28, before a dropoff during the age-29 season. There’s no additional dropoff from the age-29 through age-31 seasons.

In general, running backs backs don’t “fall off a cliff” until their age-31 season — not their age-30 season. When discussing running backs who see a heavier workload (150 attempts per season), their fantasy production drops off during their age-29 season — not their age-30 season.

[makoman]

This was from a fantasy perspective, but for RBs that's pretty high correlation to actual production.

 

https://www.pff.com/...wall#:~:text=It's%20no%20secret%20that%20running,They%20don't.

 

Some excerpts:

Yeah I'd be very concerned about the next contract, less about this one.

 

I'd be curious to know how many of his carries end up out of bounds/kneel/slide, and compare to the average RB.

[PrimeTime]

The guy was way off in his assesment. I dont need to defend what I said. Everything youve said above has merit. What doesnt have merit is acting like his legs wont be a weapon or that his overall effectiveness will take a big hit like RBs do once they hit a certain wall. I said it a month or so ago. After everything hes accomplished and proved from the QB position people still out here acting like hes a RB. The same criticisms aimed at him when he came into the league. People are biased and cant come off of that bias.

 

I read it differently than you but fair enough. 

 

With that said, one of the concerns about Lamar has always been that his propensity to use his legs could result in injury issues. Albeit, both injuries occurred while dropping back to pass, I think it's fair to opine that his high workload could be a contributing factor. Or it could just be bad luck.....tough to say.

[PrimeTime]

Yeah I'd be very concerned about the next contract, less about this one.

 

I'd be curious to know how many of his carries end up out of bounds/kneel/slide, and compare to the average RB.

 

Lamar does have an innate ability to avoid hard contact and also makes an effort to get out of bounds on his runs. My assertion is pertaining simply to act and exertion of running and how that exertion can accumulate. As opposed to a typical pocket guy that would be handing the ball off or throwing it away, as opposed to breaking contain and running.

 

It would be interesting if that data was available though. I'm not sure if any of the analytic sites break things down to that extent. 

[hallas]

Yeah I'd be very concerned about the next contract, less about this one.

I'd be curious to know how many of his carries end up out of bounds/kneel/slide, and compare to the average RB.

I think in general my appetite for a contract is reduced the older he is when he signs it. We have no idea what was on the table at the end of 2020 or 2021 but a 6 year deal at the end of 2020 was a lot easier to project in terms of future performance than a 6 year deal at the end of 2022, and if we gave him groundbreaking money at that point in his career it would have worked out great, partially because he would have been less than 30 at the end of that deal, and partially because the QB market has gone crazy since.

I think the Ravens really miscalculated the QB market.

[makoman]

Lamar does have an innate ability to avoid hard contact and also makes an effort to get out of bounds on his runs. My assertion is pertaining simply to act and exertion of running and how that exertion can accumulate. As opposed to a typical pocket guy that would be handing the ball off or throwing it away, as opposed to breaking contain and running.

 

It would be interesting if that data was available though. I'm not sure if any of the analytic sites break things down to that extent. 

Running even without being hit is probably an exertion, but you're still talking about like under 10 carries a game. I don't know, feels minimal, but I can't really say. QBs also get hit a ton on pass plays that aren't sacks, which I imagine he has less of than those who pass more. If pro-football reference is accurate he's been hit on passes just 98 times in his 5 years, compared to 227 for Josh Allen, for example. Mahomes has 274 in those five years. Burrow has 143 in 3 years. 

 

Anyway, I'm sure the teams have this type of data, but I've never seen it, yeah would be interesting.

[PrimeTime]

I think in general my appetite for a contract is reduced the older he is when he signs it. We have no idea what was on the table at the end of 2020 or 2021 but a 6 year deal at the end of 2020 was a lot easier to project in terms of future performance than a 6 year deal at the end of 2022, and if we gave him groundbreaking money at that point in his career it would have worked out great, partially because he would have been less than 30 at the end of that deal, and partially because the QB market has gone crazy since.

I think the Ravens really miscalculated the QB market.

 

Had we been able to get a deal done after year 3, the dollars would've been much different and likely nowhere near the stratosphere of the current reports. In other words, we wouldn't have had to come to the table with groundbreaking money.

 

I don't think the Ravens miscalculated the QB market because if they had their druthers, they would've extended Lamar a couple of years ago. But IIRC, Lamar rebuffed any contract talk back then. Not really much the franchise can do if the player isn't interested in engaging in discussions.

[PrimeTime]

Running even without being hit is probably an exertion, but you're still talking about like under 10 carries a game. I don't know, feels minimal, but I can't really say. QBs also get hit a ton on pass plays that aren't sacks, which I imagine he has less of than those who pass more. If pro-football reference is accurate he's been hit on passes just 98 times in his 5 years, compared to 227 for Josh Allen, for example. Mahomes has 274 in those five years. Burrow has 143 in 3 years. 

 

Anyway, I'm sure the teams have this type of data, but I've never seen it, yeah would be interesting.

 

I can't find QB hits taken on PFR, can you point me to it?

 

You have to take into account total number of attempts as well. Allen, Mahomes and Burrow throw the ball a lot more than Jackson so it stands to reason they would take more QB hits as a result. 

 

For another perspective, Jackson has been sacked on 7.4% of his career attempts; Mahomes is at 3.9%, Allen is at 5.6% and Burrow is at 7.5%. And Burrow is perceived as taking a lot of sacks, he and Jackson are almost identical there.

[hallas]

I can't find QB hits taken on PFR, can you point me to it?

 

You have to take into account total number of attempts as well. Allen, Mahomes and Burrow throw the ball a lot more than Jackson so it stands to reason they would take more QB hits as a result. 

 

For another perspective, Jackson has been sacked on 7.4% of his career attempts; Mahomes is at 3.9%, Allen is at 5.6% and Burrow is at 7.5%. And Burrow is perceived as taking a lot of sacks, he and Jackson are almost identical there.

 

On the player page, go to advanced passing, and click on the "pressure" tab.

[jamesdean]

Hence why you should think before you post. Thinking hes gonna be non effective or a non threat like most aged RBs is just a horrible take

That's your opinion. 

[mdrunning]

I think in general my appetite for a contract is reduced the older he is when he signs it. We have no idea what was on the table at the end of 2020 or 2021 but a 6 year deal at the end of 2020 was a lot easier to project in terms of future performance than a 6 year deal at the end of 2022, and if we gave him groundbreaking money at that point in his career it would have worked out great, partially because he would have been less than 30 at the end of that deal, and partially because the QB market has gone crazy since.

I think the Ravens really miscalculated the QB market.

I think Lamar's market may have been miscalculated because he isn't your typical plug-and-play type of quarterback. Perhaps the league simply doesn't value him as highly as he appears to value himself.

[jamesdean]

No one said he was going to fall off a cliff but to ignore the increased workload over and above a "regular" QB, along with the seemingly minor injuries that have lingered the last 2 years is a huge case of ostrich syndrome. You have to take that stuff into account, which is absolutely a factor in this whole ordeal. The Ravens obviously have a line in the sand and the rest of the NFL doesn't seem anxious to throw a big contract his way, 

 

It's ok to offer legitimate concerns and criticisms of Jackson. It doesn't mean we hate him or anything. Not sure why you seem to take it so personally.

Maybe he's in Lamar's "camp." 

[hallas]

Had we been able to get a deal done after year 3, the dollars would've been much different and likely nowhere near the stratosphere of the current reports. In other words, we wouldn't have had to come to the table with groundbreaking money.

 

I don't think the Ravens miscalculated the QB market because if they had their druthers, they would've extended Lamar a couple of years ago. But IIRC, Lamar rebuffed any contract talk back then. Not really much the franchise can do if the player isn't interested in engaging in discussions.

 

I don't really get the sense that at any time the Ravens were prepared to offer him a market-setting contract.  And I think that the previous trajectory of QB salaries would have told us that contracts would continue to sail higher and higher.  The reported contract offer from the Ravens from 2022 isn't really a market-setting contract; it's basically in line with other top-tier QB deals.  It's possible that Lamar would have turned down a market-setting contract before 2021.  I'd bank on no, but that's just conjecture.

[Mike B]

Had we been able to get a deal done after year 3, the dollars would've been much different and likely nowhere near the stratosphere of the current reports. In other words, we wouldn't have had to come to the table with groundbreaking money.

 

I don't think the Ravens miscalculated the QB market because if they had their druthers, they would've extended Lamar a couple of years ago. But IIRC, Lamar rebuffed any contract talk back then. Not really much the franchise can do if the player isn't interested in engaging in discussions.

Agreed, if they miscalculated anything, it was how difficult Lamar was going to be to deal with and how involved the NFLPA was going to be.