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Lamar - Extension?


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#4841 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 22 March 2023 - 04:52 PM

Since I don't really get the non franchise tag implications help me understand.

 

If there are really teams interested in LJ then what is the downside to making (what that team considers) a reasonable offer? So what if the Ravens match it. Its pure speculation that they will so if a team really wants LJ why wouldn't they just make an offer?

 

To me its like fishing. I may or may not catch a fish but I sure as heck won't catch one if I sit at home and don't go. Make an offer and if the Ravens don't match it then great but if they do what's the downside?



#4842 bmore_ken

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Posted 22 March 2023 - 04:56 PM

Since I don't really get the non franchise tag implications help me understand.

If there are really teams interested in LJ then what is the downside to making (what that team considers) a reasonable offer? So what if the Ravens match it. Its pure speculation that they will so if a team really wants LJ why wouldn't they just make an offer?

To me its like fishing. I may or may not catch a fish but I sure as heck won't catch one if I sit at home and don't go. Make an offer and if the Ravens don't match it then great but if they do what's the downside?

The team making the offer has to have the cap space. Which means if they don't have the space they have to make moves to get enough for his contract. Meanwhile if they do restructures or release guys to get there, they can't take those moves back if the Ravens match. Genius move by EDC

#4843 hallas

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Posted 22 March 2023 - 05:11 PM

My bad for not making that clear about consecutive injury seasons.The Browns have made some of the dumbest qb decisions in NFL history. I don't even care about Watson's allegations because that's all they are. My concern would be he's done nothing on the field to warrant a guaranteed contract.


What QBs would you feel should command a record breaking guaranteed contract? Herbert? Allen? Burrow? Mahomes?

#4844 bmore_ken

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Posted 22 March 2023 - 05:51 PM


What QBs would you feel should command a record breaking guaranteed contract? Herbert? Allen? Burrow? Mahomes?


Mahomes already has a record breaking contract, though not guaranteed and is earning every penny. Which of the others would I give a guaranteed $235M+ contract? None of them.

#4845 hallas

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Posted 22 March 2023 - 05:56 PM

Mahomes already has record breaking contract, though not guaranteed and is earning every penny. Which of the others would I give a guaranteed $235M+ contract? None of them. 

 

This take makes it sound like you have a problem with fully guaranteed qb contracts on principle, if the only one you're willing to give one to is the best QB in the league by a country mile.

 

This can quickly delve into a can of worms that is completely unrelated to Lamar.



#4846 bmore_ken

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Posted 22 March 2023 - 06:03 PM

This take makes it sound like you have a problem with fully guaranteed qb contracts on principle, if the only one you're willing to give one to is the best QB in the league by a country mile.

 

This can quickly delve into a can of worms that is completely unrelated to Lamar.

From a financial standpoint I do. If I'm an NFL owner(and I'm not) I would want an out if the guy I sign tomorrows sucks three years from now. Call me crazy. Hell Watson sucks in year one 



#4847 hallas

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Posted 22 March 2023 - 06:08 PM

From a financial standpoint I do. If I'm an NFL owner(and I'm not) I would want an out if the guy I sign tomorrows sucks three years from now. Call me crazy. 

 

Sure, that makes sense.  I think that the conversation of fully guaranteed deals on principle quickly delves into the fairness of fully guaranteed contracts in any sport, be it football, or baseball, or euro league soccer, or basketball.  It's obviously not "fair" that elite athletes command multi year 9 figure salaries, but it's also clear that NFL is the outlier in terms of not guaranteeing contracts for athletes.  It's a pretty big can of worms.



#4848 Slidemaster

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Posted 22 March 2023 - 06:14 PM

I would give Burrow a fully guaranteed deal and wouldn't blink an eye about it. He's the only one aside from Mahomes.

#4849 hallas

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Posted 22 March 2023 - 06:16 PM

I would give Burrow a fully guaranteed deal and wouldn't blink an eye about it. He's the only one aside from Mahomes.

 

I think Burrow's success is partially a product of the Bengals being really good at drafting receivers.  I really don't think he's going to see the same level of success if they can't keep at least 2 of Higgins, Boyd, and Chase.  He's still a top-4 or top-5 QB in my eyes, but I think he sometimes looks better than that because of his receivers.



#4850 bmore_ken

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Posted 22 March 2023 - 06:25 PM

I think Burrow's success is partially a product of the Bengals being really good at drafting receivers.  I really don't think he's going to see the same level of success if they can't keep at least 2 of Higgins, Boyd, and Chase.  He's still a top-4 or top-5 QB in my eyes, but I think he sometimes looks better than that because of his receivers.

Agreed. Those guys would make any qb look good. Even with them the Bengals are without a Super Bowl win.



#4851 bmore_ken

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Posted 22 March 2023 - 06:32 PM

Sure, that makes sense.  I think that the conversation of fully guaranteed deals on principle quickly delves into the fairness of fully guaranteed contracts in any sport, be it football, or baseball, or euro league soccer, or basketball.  It's obviously not "fair" that elite athletes command multi year 9 figure salaries, but it's also clear that NFL is the outlier in terms of not guaranteeing contracts for athletes.  It's a pretty big can of worms.

Sports team owners live in a different world than we do. I can think of 10 MLB players off the top of my head who are overpaid. And another ten who got paid when they declined  in skills. The owners have the money , so I'm not mad at the players that cash in. But if it was me I would be extremely annoyed signing a guy who averaged .300, 30 homers and 100 RBI to a 10 year contract and eventually becomes Chris Davis



#4852 Mike in STL

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Posted 22 March 2023 - 07:18 PM

This take makes it sound like you have a problem with fully guaranteed qb contracts on principle, if the only one you're willing to give one to is the best QB in the league by a country mile.

This can quickly delve into a can of worms that is completely unrelated to Lamar.

Under the current league rules, why would you fully guarantee a contract if you don’t have to? I mean, doing it for three years is maybe something I’d entertain. Just because you can get out in 3 years. But the salary cap hit would be insane if you guarantee so much that the AAV is also league high.

Like a 3/$153M full guarantee is an expensive way to find out if you can compete with a guy developing more question marks by the day, taking up over 22% of the cap. And when it isn’t worth it, at least you only did it for 3 years. The 5 year fully guaranteed is completely stupid. The Browns already pushing that money down to void years. I’d rather do the Kirk Cousins thing than the Deshaun Watson thing, if I had to. Year 1 your trying it. Year 2 you know if year 1 was an accurate representation, good or bad. You should know what direction to go entering year 3 and you start planning accordingly. Either with an extension, or drafting his replacement and playing it out.

But currently any offer of mine is off the table completely. No one is interested and why bid against yourself? Let LJ bring me offers if he really wants to be here.
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#4853 cprenegade

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Posted 22 March 2023 - 07:47 PM

He craved the attention, but he also started 15 games 5 of his first 8 years. Two of those were his rookie year (didn’t start at first) and his suspension year, not at all injury prone.

I agree neither injury of Lamar’s is a concern in a vacuum and aren’t really a worry going forward, but I do now have concerns that he’s injury prone. One year gave me no worry, two in a row gives a bit. Not a ton mind you but every little thing matters when it’s 50M/year and over 200 guaranteed.

 

I don't think I would be concerned that he is necessarily an injury risk going forward.  But he has had two injuries that were not deemed all that serious (season enders or surgery) that ended up being season ending.  That would be a concern of mine if I were ready to pay him a ton of money with a large portion guaranteed.  

 

I'm not ready to say he purposely sat out when he could have played, but I think it's fair to wonder how willing to play hurt he is.  He may be one of those guys that just won't play unless he's near 100%.  That would be concerning to me if I'm paying a near record salary with most of it guaranteed.  It's a tough sport and almost nobody gets through a season without being hurt at some point in time.    



#4854 bmore_ken

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Posted 22 March 2023 - 07:48 PM

Under the current league rules, why would you fully guarantee a contract if you don’t have to? I mean, doing it for three years is maybe something I’d entertain. Just because you can get out in 3 years. But the salary cap hit would be insane if you guarantee so much that the AAV is also league high.

Like a 3/$153M full guarantee is an expensive way to find out if you can compete with a guy developing more question marks by the day, taking up over 22% of the cap. And when it isn’t worth it, at least you only did it for 3 years. The 5 year fully guaranteed is completely stupid. The Browns already pushing that money down to void years. I’d rather do the Kirk Cousins thing than the Deshaun Watson thing, if I had to. Year 1 your trying it. Year 2 you know if year 1 was an accurate representation, good or bad. You should know what direction to go entering year 3 and you start planning accordingly. Either with an extension, or drafting his replacement and playing it out.

But currently any offer of mine is off the table completely. No one is interested and why bid against yourself? Let LJ bring me offers if he really wants to be here.

Finally some stuff we agree on. 😁
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#4855 Bmore Irish

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Posted 22 March 2023 - 08:07 PM

Under the current league rules, why would you fully guarantee a contract if you don’t have to? I mean, doing it for three years is maybe something I’d entertain. Just because you can get out in 3 years. But the salary cap hit would be insane if you guarantee so much that the AAV is also league high.

Like a 3/$153M full guarantee is an expensive way to find out if you can compete with a guy developing more question marks by the day, taking up over 22% of the cap. And when it isn’t worth it, at least you only did it for 3 years. The 5 year fully guaranteed is completely stupid. The Browns already pushing that money down to void years. I’d rather do the Kirk Cousins thing than the Deshaun Watson thing, if I had to. Year 1 your trying it. Year 2 you know if year 1 was an accurate representation, good or bad. You should know what direction to go entering year 3 and you start planning accordingly. Either with an extension, or drafting his replacement and playing it out.

But currently any offer of mine is off the table completely. No one is interested and why bid against yourself? Let LJ bring me offers if he really wants to be here.

The Vikings have already restructured Cousins deal this offseason, even though they're likely to move on after this season anyway.

 

Paragraphs five and six I think are most relevant to the discussion:

https://www.espn.com...ns-reworks-deal


 



#4856 hallas

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Posted 22 March 2023 - 08:16 PM

Under the current league rules, why would you fully guarantee a contract if you don’t have to? I mean, doing it for three years is maybe something I’d entertain. Just because you can get out in 3 years. But the salary cap hit would be insane if you guarantee so much that the AAV is also league high.

Like a 3/$153M full guarantee is an expensive way to find out if you can compete with a guy developing more question marks by the day, taking up over 22% of the cap. And when it isn’t worth it, at least you only did it for 3 years. The 5 year fully guaranteed is completely stupid. The Browns already pushing that money down to void years. I’d rather do the Kirk Cousins thing than the Deshaun Watson thing, if I had to. Year 1 your trying it. Year 2 you know if year 1 was an accurate representation, good or bad. You should know what direction to go entering year 3 and you start planning accordingly. Either with an extension, or drafting his replacement and playing it out.

But currently any offer of mine is off the table completely. No one is interested and why bid against yourself? Let LJ bring me offers if he really wants to be here.

 

I don't think 3/153 is particularly realistic.  A ~5% higher AAV for a contract duration that is 1-2 years shorter than the functional portion of the deals his peers signed?  Seems awfully low to me.  I think you are looking at 3/165 minimum as a competitive alternative to a more typical 6 year deal with 4-5 years functionally guaranteed and 2.5 years guaranteed at signing.



#4857 Mackus

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Posted 22 March 2023 - 09:03 PM

I think 3/$153M full guarantee would be a pretty strong offer, similar in quality to what the Ravens reportedly offered but obviously a different structure.

No idea if Lamar's willing to settle for less than he's hoping for, or if he is whether he'd prefer a shorter full guarantee to a more typical 5-year deal which has similar guaranteed money at signing but with a possibility to earn another two years at high APY in years 4-5. Team would probably prefer the 5-year model for cap reasons.

#4858 mdrunning

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Posted 22 March 2023 - 11:37 PM

Sure, that makes sense.  I think that the conversation of fully guaranteed deals on principle quickly delves into the fairness of fully guaranteed contracts in any sport, be it football, or baseball, or euro league soccer, or basketball.  It's obviously not "fair" that elite athletes command multi year 9 figure salaries, but it's also clear that NFL is the outlier in terms of not guaranteeing contracts for athletes.  It's a pretty big can of worms.

Football has always managed to stay ahead of the curve in terms of its compensation system. It's also managed to avoid complete and unfettered free agency, particularly when it comes to the biggest stars.

 

Unlike, say, baseball, which essentially had an economic system foisted upon it by an independent arbitrator, football has always been more proactive in areas such as labor and free agency. By various models (including a hard salary cap that is nearly impossible to circumvent), they've tamped down free agency demand just enough so as to temper potential feeding frenzies that could result in a bellwether deal (with one notable exception, of course). By historically offering short-term concessions to the players in such areas as pension, benefits, etc. they've managed to maintain long-term control over compensation. 



#4859 Mashed Potatoes

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Posted 23 March 2023 - 03:49 AM

Can this thread hit 5k replies before a resolution is reached?

Is this the longest sports related thread in BSL history?
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#4860 Steve55

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Posted 23 March 2023 - 06:16 AM

The Vikings have already restructured Cousins deal this offseason, even though they're likely to move on after this season anyway.

 

Paragraphs five and six I think are most relevant to the discussion:

https://www.espn.com...ns-reworks-deal


 

 

 

In the case of Cousins, yes he has guaranteed years but only around $35-36 million. Then the team still has to borrow from his salary each year.






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