Perhaps you’re right. But if I’m Juan Soto, I’m not signing away my career to a team that has the worst record in MLB (and pretty much the worst farm system in the sport).

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#248 Pedro Cerrano

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Posted 16 July 2022 - 12:02 PM

Perhaps you’re right. But if I’m Juan Soto, I’m not signing away my career to a team that has the worst record in MLB.

For that money I would. Plus the Nats have shown a willingness to spend and whoever buys them will presumably be loaded.

There is baseball, and occasionally there are other things of note

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#249 CantonJester

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Posted 16 July 2022 - 12:33 PM

For that money I would. Plus the Nats have shown a willingness to spend and whoever buys them will presumably be loaded.

Why? The AAV on 440/15 is less than $30m a year. He’d be better off extending with a team to his 29th birthday for $35m a year, and then go break the bank in a FA before his 30th birthday.

If I’m Brian Cashman, I unload all their top prospects to make that happen, and then let Judge walk in the offseason.

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#250 You Play to Win the Game

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Posted 16 July 2022 - 12:36 PM

Why? The AAV on 440/15 is less than $30m a year. He’d be better off extending with a team to his 29th birthday for $35m a year, and then go break the bank in a FA before his 30th birthday.

If I’m Brian Cashman, I unload all their top prospects to make that happen, and then let Judge walk in the offseason.

Ugh, that’d be worst case scenario. Anywhere but the AL East please.

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#251 Pedro Cerrano

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Posted 16 July 2022 - 12:37 PM

Why? The AAV on 440/15 is less than $30m a year. He’d be better off extending with a team to his 29th birthday for $35m a year, and then go break the bank in a FA before his 30th birthday.

If I’m Brian Cashman, I unload all their top prospects to make that happen, and then let Judge walk in the offseason.

Cuz it’s almost half a billion dollars guaranteed.

“Tomorrow Never Knows”

There is baseball, and occasionally there are other things of note

"Now OPS sucks. Got it."

"Making his own olive brine is peak Mackus."

"I'm too hungover to watch a loss." - McNulty

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#252 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 18 July 2022 - 08:09 AM

ESPN: Predictions, updates and takeaways: Everything you need for the MLB All-Star Home Run Derby at Dodger Stadium

https://www.espn.com...-dodger-stadium

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#253 Mackus

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Posted 18 July 2022 - 09:10 AM

I can't imagine the O's being the team to hit $500M on a historic contract...but would Hays, Henderson, and Hall get it done for Soto?

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#254 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 18 July 2022 - 09:13 AM

I can't imagine the O's being the team to hit $500M on a historic contract...but would Hays, Henderson, and Hall get it done for Soto?

That's a great package. I'm not giving up that level of talent, and giving someone $500M.

Soto's awesome. Crazy talent. No thanks on a 10-15 year deal, and that AAV... after giving up talent to get him.

Someone will do it, sure hope it isn't us.

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#255 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 18 July 2022 - 09:16 AM

How much time service does Soto have left.

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#256 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 18 July 2022 - 09:17 AM

I still stick to my thought that Soto will be the best offensive player this decade so Id give up a lot for him and I wouldnt shy away from a huge contract.

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#257 Mackus

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Posted 18 July 2022 - 09:18 AM

How much time service does Soto have left.

2 more years. Arb rates will be huge, though. He's making $17M this year and is gonna get another $8-9M raise for 2023. Assuming a strong '23, repeat for '24.

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#258 Mackus

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Posted 18 July 2022 - 09:20 AM

Soto's top-10 comps according to Baseball-references similarity scores (which compare how similar players stats have been through certain ages):

Mike Trout

Frank Robinson

Bryce Harper

Miguel Cabrera

Mickey Mantle

Tony Conigliaro

Hank Aaron

Orlando Cepeda

Giancarlo Stanton

Ken Griffey Jr

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#259 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 18 July 2022 - 09:25 AM

Soto's top-10 comps according to Baseball-references similarity scores (which compare how similar players stats have been through certain ages):

Mike Trout
Frank Robinson
Bryce Harper
Miguel Cabrera
Mickey Mantle
Tony Conigliaro
Hank Aaron
Orlando Cepeda
Giancarlo Stanton
Ken Griffey Jr

Yeah he is worth the investment on all fronts. At least from an a production standpoint. Obviously other factors would come into play depending on character and how he is in the clubhouse

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#260 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 18 July 2022 - 09:32 AM

He's other worldly offensively. He's poor defensively now at age 23... that isn't going to get better over the course of a 10-15 year deal.

Let's say 13 years, $500M.

The $38M AAV is livable. You can take on that type of contract when nobody else is making anything.
And you'd figure (5?) years from now, that revenues will be higher, and it will be more livable.

But you gave up a productive cheaper regular in Hays... and you gave up lots and lots of cheap team control with Henderson and Hall.

Certainly takes talent to get talent.

You could make the contract work.

I'm not excited about anyone for 10-15 years. But admittedly... that offensive profile and what he's already accomplished before turning 24 is as impressive as it gets.