194 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

2023: 
17 games, 17 ip, 30 k's, 13 bb's, 10 hits, 2-1, 8 saves, 3 blown saves, 1.59 era

K% 40.5%, BB% 17.6%,  avg fb velo 98.9

 

2022:
65 games, 65.2 ip, 88 k's, 23 bb's, 38 hits, 4-4, 15 saves, 2 blown saves, 2.19 era

K% 34.8%, BB% 9.1%, avg fb velo 99.2

 

 

 

2023 Percentile Rankings

 

Whiff % 100

Fastball % 98

xBA 97

xSlugging 99

K% 98

BB% 4

[TwentyThirtyFive]

2023:
17 games, 17 ip, 30 k's, 13 bb's, 10 hits, 2-1, 8 saves, 3 blown saves, 1.59 era
K% 40.5%, BB% 17.6%, avg fb velo 98.9

2022:
65 games, 65.2 ip, 88 k's, 23 bb's, 38 hits, 4-4, 15 saves, 2 blown saves, 2.19 era
K% 34.8%, BB% 9.1%, avg fb velo 99.2



2023 Percentile Rankings

Whiff % 100
Fastball % 98
xBA 97
xSlugging 99
K% 98
BB% 4

The walk rate and inability to hold runners is gonna be the huge issues.

[BobPhelan]

https://twitter.com/...VUJft8skf32X07Q

[TwentyThirtyFive]

The stuff isnt an issue. Likely never will be. It doesnt matter when the control is this bad. He has no idea where the ball is going pitch to pitch.

[dude]

I think the challenge with Bautista right now is his stuff it so good, nobody wants to show up hacking.  If your stuff is too good, why swing early and get yourself in trouble.

 

He needs to just pour strike one in the zone with the fastball.  He's routinely missing up and well out of the strike zone.  Nobody wants to swing at that on 0-0.  Throw strike one enough that the scouting report says "hunt fastball early".  You're throwing 100 with movement, just keep it out of the middle of the plate.  Make them think about swinging then the slider is unhittable.

 

Gotta be strike one.  A lot.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

He isnt close to the zone. Thats the problem. If it were close hed still get enough swings early even if he off the plate.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

I think in his last outing he didn't throw a strike on the first pitch. That is not a recipe for success.

[BSLRoseKatz]

https://baseballsava...er=desc#results

 

Felix pitches that are balls way out of the zone

 

2022: 23.1 percent of total pitches

2023: 31.5 percent of total pitches

[BaltBird 24]

His velocity was also way down in his last appearance.... quite a few 95-96 though he did ramp it up to 99.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

His velocity was also way down in his last appearance.... quite a few 95-96 though he did ramp it up to 99.

That should be noted too though it doesnt make me concerned about overall stuff. I actually think what someone said in the game theead was true. He was dialing it back a bit just trying to get it in the zone

[Mackus]

https://baseballsava...er=desc#results

 

Felix pitches that are balls way out of the zone

 

2022: 23.1 percent of total pitches

2023: 31.5 percent of total pitches

 

I imagine this doesn't/can't account for splitters that are way out of the zone intentionally?

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I imagine this doesn't/can't account for splitters that are way out of the zone intentionally?

I guess we would have to define "way out of the zone" more specifically. Im thinking about the pitches that were never a strike out of the hand and never had a chance to get a swing. Not sure hes throwing any of those type intentionally.

[dude]

https://baseballsava...er=desc#results

 

Felix pitches that are balls way out of the zone

 

2022: 23.1 percent of total pitches

2023: 31.5 percent of total pitches

 

Savant is awesome.  I seem to get lost in it sometimes (don't really use it enough)....

 

So I would have said (eye-test) that he's missing up and away WAY too much.  In that search it's zones 22/23 and 32/33...and that accounts for 13.6% of his pitches...more than double last years rate.  Way too many.

 

I don't know if it's intentional or not.  It feels like a lot of Orioles pitchers are working up in the zone.  We don't know intent, only results....they could just be missing spots by 2 feet...but it feels more intentional from an approach perspective. 

 

Analytics chasing swing path?  Don't know....but we've talked about this with other guys too...need more competitive pitches early.  Force hitter aggression with strike one.

[BSLRoseKatz]

I imagine this doesn't/can't account for splitters that are way out of the zone intentionally?

Missing really high breakdown

 

2022: 10.7%

2023: 15.8%

[BaltBird 24]

Averaging 18K/9. Just a ridiculous number.

[CantonJester]

Getting Matt Chapman to foul off 101.7 & 102.1 mph four seam fastballs and then he helplessly watches an 87 mph splitter drop in for a called strike three. 

 

Kevin Smith and the booth crew were all over it wondering if Bautista was about to unleash it, and boy did he ever.

[Mackus]

Different strokes I guess, I thought that was a cement mixer with terrible location but got away with it because Chapman was sitting red.

[CantonJester]

Different strokes I guess, I thought that was a cement mixer with terrible location but got away with it because Chapman was sitting red.

 

He *had to be* sitting red. Chapman hadn't thrown him a splitter at all this season. That means his best chance to get on base is to swing the bat at what Bautista offered. 

 

Until that drop in velo buckles his knees. Chapman just turned around and walked away. Dead to rights. 

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Even on cement mixers you pretty much still have to be guessing 1 or the other. I never saw the Judge HR he hit off the split. Missed the game and just chose to avoid watching heartbreak. My guess is even on 0-2 he was sitting split. Maybe not though. Bottom line is its hard for these hitters to cover both pitches if they are both strikes. Even when the split "hangs"

[Mackus]

Certainly a ton more margin for error on the offspeed stuff when your fastball is that fast and feels even faster with the height and extension and rise. He'll get away with a hanger far more often than basically everyone else in the game.