203 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

But lets make it clear. This philosophy Stoner is embracing isnt about 1 player. He would trade nearly every asset a yr or more out from FA no matter our status as a contender. Thats criminal.

 

Would do everything possible to extend Gunnar. 
Would do everything possible to extend Holliday now before he ascends to the Majors.

Would consider trying to extend Rodriguez given how expensive pitching is. 
(Bradish is already 27... maybe I'd take him to 2030.)

 

Your post prior to this was you saying you expect the O's window to still be open in 2026 and 2027.
I agree. 
You wouldn't trade Adley if that's the case.
I feel like you could trade Adley and continue to contend. 

[BSLChrisStoner]

Orioles always have the "Boras is his agent" excuse when it comes to not extending their young talent.

They don't get credit for trying, if they aren't able to get a deal done.... but they can't force Boras to negotiate.
 

[Mike in STL]

Basallo Scouting grades:         Hit: 50 | Power: 55 | Run: 40 | Arm: 60 | Field: 45 | Overall: 55

Rutschman Scouting Grades: Hit: 60 | Power: 65 | Run: 30 | Arm: 60 | Field: 65 | Overall: 65

 

Let's stop thinking that somehow Adley is blocking a better, or as good prospect. 

 

Don't overthink this. Extend Adley while it's cheaper. Basallo if he's so good, is part of a trade package to get better players. This is what championship teams do. Clearly the O's aren't that, and don't aspire to be that, since they want to emulate teams that don't win Championships. (Rays, Brewers, Guardians). But they are really emulating the A's.

 

The A's would trade Adley, promote Basallo, and like most prospects, maybe turns out he's mid. 

What do you get for Adley? A haul of prospects. Maybe a good one in there, maybe mid, maybe one or two never see the light of day in Baltimore. 

Do this three or four times, and all of sudden you have a roster of guys no team wants and prospects who aren't even beating them out for jobs.

 

Ladies and gentlemen, the 2028 Baltimore A's! 

[glenn__davis]

Basallo Scouting grades:         Hit: 50 | Power: 55 | Run: 40 | Arm: 60 | Field: 45 | Overall: 55

Rutschman Scouting Grades: Hit: 60 | Power: 65 | Run: 30 | Arm: 60 | Field: 65 | Overall: 65

 

Are scouting grades the final determination on who is better?

 

I think Adley is a terrific ballplayer and he's not blocking anyone.  I think Basallo has the potential to be a significantly better offensive player.  What he did last year at age 18/19 is incredibly impressive.  Those scouting grades mean jack and squat in the long run.

[makoman]

I don’t know where those grades are coming from but I’d be surprised if Basallo ends up with less power than Adley. His minors power seems at least comparable, and he’s doing it like 3-4 years younger or something.

Yeah, many prospects fail, and he certainly could. He also could be a top 5 overall guy in short order. There’s room for both of them.

[BobPhelan]

https://x.com/angelu...VUJft8skf32X07Q

[BobPhelan]

2024 AA
2025 AAA

2026 O's catcher, with Adley traded after the '25 season.

Ignoring the last sentence, there’s no way this will be Basallo’s path unless there are injuries or big time struggles. He’s going to mash AA pitching at 19 years old and likely be in AAA by August. They’ll either set him up for the RoY draft pick in 2025 or bring him up a month or two into that season just like we’re talking about with Holliday. See the link I posted above for the rarified air Basallo is in.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Ignoring the last sentence, there’s no way this will be Basallo’s path unless there are injuries or big time struggles. He’s going to mash AA pitching at 19 years old and likely be in AAA by August. They’ll either set him up for the RoY draft pick in 2025 or bring him up a month or two into that season just like we’re talking about with Holliday. See the link I posted above for the rarified air Basallo is in.

Can't ignore Adley when factoring in Basallo's arrival. 

If you think the O's will move Adley out after '24, and bring Basallo up to compete for the '25 ROY, okay....  but if Adley is still an Oriole in '25, then I think they will slow play (not really slow play when he's had 96 ab's at High A, and 15 at AA) Basallo and let him get a full year of AAA at-bats in '25. 

 

If Cowser or Kjerstad are moved in a trade (Cease) that increases the odds of Mayo moving to a corner OF, but as is, I still think the likely scenario by '25 is that Mayo and Kjerstad are holding down 1st and DH.   If Mayo is in the OF, maybe the odds increase of Basallo being up and sharing C / 1st / DH with Adley.... but I don't see it. 

[Mike in STL]

Are scouting grades the final determination on who is better?

 

I think Adley is a terrific ballplayer and he's not blocking anyone.  I think Basallo has the potential to be a significantly better offensive player.  What he did last year at age 18/19 is incredibly impressive.  Those scouting grades mean jack and squat in the long run.

I said better prospect. In the long run, of course not. 

 

We have also seen a fair share of 4-A guys too. Guys who destroy the minors and never make it at the majors. 

 

You have a major league proven guy, an All-Star, a potential Yadi Molina, in Adley. I don't see the need after his first full season to already be laying the groundwork to move on from him for what's still a lottery ticket. 

 

Prime example, Stowers. Dude OPS'd 900+ at AAA, is the right age, and sucked at the MLB level. He's an afterthought on this team and in this teams plans. And now, low trade value as well, because your showed he isn't good at it. This is why if Basallo looks the part, and Adley IS the part, you trade Basallo 100 times out of 100.

[BaltBird 24]

If Basallo's bat is as legit as it appears to be, I'd move him from C ASAP. If he's got Yordan Alvarez offensive potential I don't want him wasting away by catching full-time.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Couple things on Stowers...

 

- He was never an elite prospect

- He didn't suck in the Majors... he's had 121 ab's... could easily still be a productive ML player somewhere, even if he doesn't factor here.

 

 

Yes, most prospects don't reach their ceilings. 
Many - even top prospects - flame, or at the minimum aren't as productive as hoped. 

 

I don't fault anyone that appreciates Adley, and wants to continue to have him as an Oriole. 

But I don't agree at all that the decision making is simply, "We have the guy, so count on that, and trade the possibility." 

IMO, there are a lot of other things factoring into the decision to boil it down to that.

 

If the O's want to keep Adley into his FA years, because they believe his skill set will continue to be productive.... because they love his leadership... because he's the current face of the team....  okay, get it. 

If the O's want to keep Adley for all of those reasons... and they can't get a deal done...  what are the options? 
The options are:

- Keeping him through the duration of his existing control.
- Trading him before his control lapses at some point. 

 

Then you have other variables...

 

- Does Adley want to extend?

- Are the O's willing to do what is necessary?

 

 

I question if the O's are willing to pay what is necessary.

I also question the investment.  Especially if they aren't going to spend as much as they could overall.  (ie, if the O's get up to $120M in spending for '26, do you want Adley getting 25% of the team salary? You could probably make that work, but it's a discussion imo even if you are in favor of the extension.)

 

You could move Adley for a high quality package of talent and control, and it's certainly possible that none of the return does much if anything at the ML level. 

Basallo could be the #1 overall prospect in the game, and it's possible he's never as good as Adley is now. 

Maybe any savings the O's would get on not signing Adley would not be reinvested elsewhere on the roster.
(Based on everything we are currently seeing, that's a good bet.)

 

It's also possible that the Adley return helps, that Basallo is productive, and the $ you aren't spending on Adley could be used elsewhere.

[BobPhelan]

Can't ignore Adley when factoring in Basallo's arrival.

If you think the O's will move Adley out after '24, and bring Basallo up to compete for the '25 ROY, okay.... but if Adley is still an Oriole in '25, then I think they will slow play (not really slow play when he's had 96 ab's at High A, and 15 at AA) Basallo and let him get a full year of AAA at-bats in '25.

If Cowser or Kjerstad are moved in a trade (Cease) that increases the odds of Mayo moving to a corner OF, but as is, I still think the likely scenario by '25 is that Mayo and Kjerstad are holding down 1st and DH. If Mayo is in the OF, maybe the odds increase of Basallo being up and sharing C / 1st / DH with Adley.... but I don't see it.

Pretty easy to give him 40-50 games behind the plate behind Adley, the rest split between 1B/DH/RF. Mountcastle and Santander will be gone next year.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Pretty easy to give him 40-50 games behind the plate behind Adley, the rest split between 1B/DH/RF. Mountcastle and Santander will be gone next year.

Yeah, I've got Mountcastle and Santander gone too...  but we will see. 
To your point, maybe the O's would be more comfortable with trading Adley after '25, if Basallo is getting significant ML time in '25. 

That said, you could get to '25 and have Mountcastle, O'Hearn, Santander, and Hays all gone... and still have: 

 

Cowser, Mullins, Westburg (LF, CF, RF)
Rutschman ©
Mayo, Kjerstad (1st, DH)
Henderson, Ortiz, Holiday (3rd, SS, 2nd)

 

Here in Jan '24, I don't believe Adley is going to be moved out after '24... 
Nor do I think with Basallo having under 100 ab's at High A, and 15 ab's at AA, that he's definitely going to get significant ML time in '25. If the O's trade one of Cowser / Kjerstad / Mayo in the coming weeks, I would think the odds certainly increase though. 

 

[Mike in STL]

If Basallo's bat is as legit as it appears to be, I'd move him from C ASAP. If he's got Yordan Alvarez offensive potential I don't want him wasting away by catching full-time.

Thats an option too. Bryce Harper was a catcher and on draft night they said outfielder. 

[BobPhelan]

Yeah, I've got Mountcastle and Santander gone too... but we will see.
To your point, maybe the O's would be more comfortable with trading Adley after '25, if Basallo is getting significant ML time in '25.

That said, you could get to '25 and have Mountcastle, O'Hearn, Santander, and Hays all gone... and still have:

Cowser, Mullins, Westburg (LF, CF, RF)
Rutschman ©
Mayo, Kjerstad (1st, DH)
Henderson, Ortiz, Holiday (3rd, SS, 2nd)

Here in Jan '24, I don't believe Adley is going to be moved out after '24...
Nor do I think with Basallo having under 100 ab's at High A, and 15 ab's at AA, that he's definitely going to get significant ML time in '25. If the O's trade one of Cowser / Kjerstad / Mayo in the coming weeks, I would think the odds certainly increase though.

Special talent deserves special considerations. If he’s as good as he could be it doesn’t matter who else is around, they’ll get him in the lineup. I don’t think Adley is going anywhere, I still think an extension is on the table, but worst case you let him ride out his contract or trade him after the 2026 season.

I think there’s a good chance Kjerstad is the main piece in a trade coming up.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Special talent deserves special considerations. If he’s as good as he could be it doesn’t matter who else is around, they’ll get him in the lineup. I don’t think Adley is going anywhere, I still think an extension is on the table, but worst case you let him ride out his contract or trade him after the 2026 season.

I think there’s a good chance Kjerstad is the main piece in a trade coming up.

I hope its Cowser.

[BSLChrisStoner]

, but worst case you let him ride out his contract or trade him after the 2026 season.

 

No thx.
 

[RichardZ]

I said better prospect. In the long run, of course not.

We have also seen a fair share of 4-A guys too. Guys who destroy the minors and never make it at the majors.

You have a major league proven guy, an All-Star, a potential Yadi Molina, in Adley. I don't see the need after his first full season to already be laying the groundwork to move on from him for what's still a lottery ticket.

Prime example, Stowers. Dude OPS'd 900+ at AAA, is the right age, and sucked at the MLB level. He's an afterthought on this team and in this teams plans. And now, low trade value as well, because your showed he isn't good at it. This is why if Basallo looks the part, and Adley IS the part, you trade Basallo 100 times out of 100.

. It’s like you completely missed the point. Comparing the 23/24 yo Stowers with alarming strikeout rates to the 18/19 yo Basallo with really good plate discipline? Wow!

[RichardZ]

No thx.
 

That’s more likely though or they treat him like the Astros did Correa. What you said about trading him after year 4 makes some sense. I put the odds at 10% of it actually happening.

[BSLChrisStoner]

That’s more likely though or they treat him like the Astros did Correa. What you said about trading him after year 4 makes some sense. I put the odds at 10% of it actually happening.

I just really hate the idea of him walking and getting nothing... and if you trade him with one year left, obviously you will get less than if you traded him with two. Of course you would also have one more year of him.